Wonderful concept. This thread is required reading. Best of luck in 2015.
Thanks, I appreciate it!
Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 45. (Read 290305 times)
Thanks, I appreciate it!
Wonderful concept. This thread is required reading. Best of luck in 2015.
Period 28, Day 0 Report - December 31, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 185.23731184
Total Units: 22723
NAV/U: BTC 0.00815197
Balance Post Divs: BTC 185.23731184
Total Units: 22723
NAV/U: BTC 0.00815197
Period 27 End Report - December 31, 2014
Previous Units 20065
EXCH Sold 2658
Less Buybacks 0
New Total Units 22723
Previous Balance 182.61601119
Price per EXCH Variable
Gross Sales of EXCH 24.11966348
Less Fees 0.09639702
Less Dividends 19.46582280
Less Buybacks 0.00000000
Less Mgmt Fee 0.53027100
Net Balance 186.64318385
End of Period NAV/U 0.00821384
New Difficulty 40,640,955,017
New Daily Dividend 0.00006187
New Reserve per Unit 0.01237400
New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01237400 - 0.00821384 = -0.00416016
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)
Days of Dividends On Hand ~132.7
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Starting Price 0.00839653
NOTE:
I believe that the EXCH trial run went well, I'll continue updating the price as the reports go out. This should be every day, but there have been a few exceptions in the past and there may be in the future. I want to be clear that those that purchase EXCH are doing so at that price willingly, I won't be doing any refunds (for the price difference) for units purchased after 12PM but before the new report is issued / EXCH price changed, for example.
Happy early New Year!
Previous Units 20065
EXCH Sold 2658
Less Buybacks 0
New Total Units 22723
Previous Balance 182.61601119
Price per EXCH Variable
Gross Sales of EXCH 24.11966348
Less Fees 0.09639702
Less Dividends 19.46582280
Less Buybacks 0.00000000
Less Mgmt Fee 0.53027100
Net Balance 186.64318385
End of Period NAV/U 0.00821384
New Difficulty 40,640,955,017
New Daily Dividend 0.00006187
New Reserve per Unit 0.01237400
New Reserve Less NAV/U = 0.01237400 - 0.00821384 = -0.00416016
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than 200 Days of Dividends)
Days of Dividends On Hand ~132.7
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Starting Price 0.00839653
NOTE:
I believe that the EXCH trial run went well, I'll continue updating the price as the reports go out. This should be every day, but there have been a few exceptions in the past and there may be in the future. I want to be clear that those that purchase EXCH are doing so at that price willingly, I won't be doing any refunds (for the price difference) for units purchased after 12PM but before the new report is issued / EXCH price changed, for example.
Happy early New Year!
Well although I can't speak for everyone, I do have an account on CEX, and on their chat a lot of people were complaining of not making any money with buying the GHS's and the whole cloud mining. I myself gave it a hardy try, but even after a good 5 or 6 months I was still only loosing money with the cloud mining. I ended up selling all of my GHS's with a loss of about 1/2 of my investment. So doing the whole cloud mining thing (with CEX anyway) just did not work for me. The maintenance fees were killing me and that is why I lost money. I kept my account open just for trading purposes only. So far I have been investing in Bitcoin since Feb, 2014 and my best investments are with Havelock Investment funds. I doubt I will ever get back into any cloud mining at this point in time.
This year has been really tough for investment across the BTC space. So many have turned out very unprofitable or even outright scams; it's hard to believe that BTCT and Bitfunder closed down a year ago, I'm not sure if it feels like longer or shorter than that.
Keep in mind with BDD that it's meant more as a hedging or speculating tool - there isn't any real hashpower behind it and there is a definite end-game / maximum payout that can be achieved. So many cloud mining operations, GHS included, do very poorly when BTC is low due to the maintenance fees, however.
I have a question for twentyseventy. After the "End Game" does occur, are you going to do it again with BDD, the same or similar setup? I have enjoyed it greatly, and I strongly encourage you to do it again. I have had fun with it, as I hope you have and many others as well. Plus i hope it has been profitable for everyone. 
Thanks, I'm glad you've found it helpful/useful/fun and I appreciate the comments. To be honest, I haven't decided yet - I know that some are looking for a more easily understood contract these days (with the prevalence of cloud mining, CEX GHS, etc). Depending on the difficulty, this could run for another few months or really for another full year. I'll begin nailing down my next steps, if any, when that time starts to come closer. Cheers
Well although I can't speak for everyone, I do have an account on CEX, and on their chat a lot of people were complaining of not making any money with buying the GHS's and the whole cloud mining. I myself gave it a hardy try, but even after a good 5 or 6 months I was still only loosing money with the cloud mining. I ended up selling all of my GHS's with a loss of about 1/2 of my investment. So doing the whole cloud mining thing (with CEX anyway) just did not work for me. The maintenance fees were killing me and that is why I lost money. I kept my account open just for trading purposes only. So far I have been investing in Bitcoin since Feb, 2014 and my best investments are with Havelock Investment funds. I doubt I will ever get back into any cloud mining at this point in time.
Period 27, Day 13 Report - December 30, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 185.80404523
Total Units: 22621
NAV/U: BTC 0.00821378
Balance Post Divs: BTC 185.80404523
Total Units: 22621
NAV/U: BTC 0.00821378
Period 27, Day 12 Report - December 29, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 185.54547308
Total Units: 22416
NAV/U: BTC 0.00827736
Balance Post Divs: BTC 185.54547308
Total Units: 22416
NAV/U: BTC 0.00827736
Period 27, Day 11 Report - December 28, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 186.87346604
Total Units: 22404
NAV/U: BTC 0.00834107
Balance Post Divs: BTC 186.87346604
Total Units: 22404
NAV/U: BTC 0.00834107
I have a question for twentyseventy. After the "End Game" does occur, are you going to do it again with BDD, the same or similar setup? I have enjoyed it greatly, and I strongly encourage you to do it again. I have had fun with it, as I hope you have and many others as well. Plus i hope it has been profitable for everyone.
Thanks, I'm glad you've found it helpful/useful/fun and I appreciate the comments. To be honest, I haven't decided yet - I know that some are looking for a more easily understood contract these days (with the prevalence of cloud mining, CEX GHS, etc). Depending on the difficulty, this could run for another few months or really for another full year. I'll begin nailing down my next steps, if any, when that time starts to come closer. Cheers
Period 27, Day 10 Report - December 27, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 188.15786146
Total Units: 22387
NAV/U: BTC 0.00840478
Balance Post Divs: BTC 188.15786146
Total Units: 22387
NAV/U: BTC 0.00840478
I have a question for twentyseventy. After the "End Game" does occur, are you going to do it again with BDD, the same or similar setup? I have enjoyed it greatly, and I strongly encourage you to do it again. I have had fun with it, as I hope you have and many others as well. Plus i hope it has been profitable for everyone.
Period 27, Day 9 Report - December 26, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 189.48250330
Total Units: 22375
NAV/U: BTC 0.00846849
Balance Post Divs: BTC 189.48250330
Total Units: 22375
NAV/U: BTC 0.00846849
Period 27, Day 8 Report - December 25, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 190.90823830
Total Units: 22375
NAV/U: BTC 0.00853221
Balance Post Divs: BTC 190.90823830
Total Units: 22375
NAV/U: BTC 0.00853221
Period 27, Day 7 Report - December 24, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 192.17876914
Total Units: 22357
NAV/U: BTC 0.00859591
Balance Post Divs: BTC 192.17876914
Total Units: 22357
NAV/U: BTC 0.00859591
Got it, thanks.
Period 27, Day 6 Report - December 23, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 191.36607260
Total Units: 22101
NAV/U: BTC 0.00865870
Yes, per the contract, the fund will be closed and pay out all of its funds once the NAV/U reaches 0.0002 BTC (.2mBTC). The contract cannot pay out (much) more than the NAV/U, so MINE holders can only receive a maximum of the NAV/U and no more. SELL holders will receive some of this amount if the Difficulty significantly increases and outpaces the resulting decline MINE payouts.
Balance Post Divs: BTC 191.36607260
Total Units: 22101
NAV/U: BTC 0.00865870
So, this will expire once the balance gets to zero ?
Yes, per the contract, the fund will be closed and pay out all of its funds once the NAV/U reaches 0.0002 BTC (.2mBTC). The contract cannot pay out (much) more than the NAV/U, so MINE holders can only receive a maximum of the NAV/U and no more. SELL holders will receive some of this amount if the Difficulty significantly increases and outpaces the resulting decline MINE payouts.
So, this will expire once the balance gets to zero ?
Period 27, Day 5 Report - December 22, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 192.17069673
Total Units: 22032
NAV/U: BTC 0.00872234
Balance Post Divs: BTC 192.17069673
Total Units: 22032
NAV/U: BTC 0.00872234
Period 27, Day 4 Report - December 21, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 193.57457577
Total Units: 22032
NAV/U: BTC 0.00878606
Balance Post Divs: BTC 193.57457577
Total Units: 22032
NAV/U: BTC 0.00878606
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