Period 18, Day 5 Report - August 25, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 306.72137277
Total Units: 14987
NAV/U: BTC 0.02046582
Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 55. (Read 290305 times)
Period 18, Day 4 Report - August 24, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 308.30175192
Total Units: 14987
NAV/U: BTC 0.02057127
Balance Post Divs: BTC 308.30175192
Total Units: 14987
NAV/U: BTC 0.02057127
Just curious, what are everyone's strategies when you're considering whether or not to buy B.EXCH vs. either MINE or SELL (apart from clearing a set of bids above NAV/U)?
jjdub7, are you asking when it's more beneficial to buy EXCH and sell the non-desired half of it, versus simply buying the half that you want (MINE or SELL)?
Thread members' idea of it, yes. Just off predictions of what the future prices will be. Because of the way you have the EXCH price update with the difficulty, but the buy-back NAV/U price update daily (decreasing with MINE divs), it rules out arbitrage to a certain degree regarding the timing of whether to buy EXCH or not. It's probably one factor that contributes to the variance of prices over the 2-week periods (i.e. SELL starting out low and then getting bought up at the end once people forecast what the next period will be).
Actually, if there was a buy-back, the NAV/U would increase, as buybacks are done at 98% of the last published NAV/U.
The only time that NAV/U decreases is when SELL or MINE dividends are issued. Does that help?
If the calculation is implicitly correct otherwise then yes, thanks The only time that NAV/U decreases is when SELL or MINE dividends are issued. Does that help?
Yes, the calculation is correct!
Period 18, Day 3 Report - August 23, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 309.96318335
Total Units: 14991
NAV/U: BTC 0.02067661
Just curious, what are everyone's strategies when you're considering whether or not to buy B.EXCH vs. either MINE or SELL (apart from clearing a set of bids above NAV/U)?
jjdub7, are you asking when it's more beneficial to buy EXCH and sell the non-desired half of it, versus simply buying the half that you want (MINE or SELL)?
Actually, if there was a buy-back, the NAV/U would increase, as buybacks are done at 98% of the last published NAV/U.
The only time that NAV/U decreases is when SELL or MINE dividends are issued. Does that help?
If the calculation is implicitly correct otherwise then yes, thanks The only time that NAV/U decreases is when SELL or MINE dividends are issued. Does that help?
I just noticed that the NAV/U I calculate automatically doesn't match the reported value. Now I want to be sure: The NAV/U from the API-available data is:
B.EXCH = 0.02172270
NAV/U = 0.02172270 / 1.03 = .021090 (day zero)
DIV(MINE) = 0.00010545
-> NAV/U today = NAV/U - 3*DIV(MINE) = .021090 - .00031635 = .02077365
The difference to the reported NAV/U of 0.02078206 is caused by the new buys of B.EXCH. If there was a buyback, then NAV/U would go down further than the calculated-as-above NAV/U. Is this correct?
B.EXCH = 0.02172270
NAV/U = 0.02172270 / 1.03 = .021090 (day zero)
DIV(MINE) = 0.00010545
-> NAV/U today = NAV/U - 3*DIV(MINE) = .021090 - .00031635 = .02077365
The difference to the reported NAV/U of 0.02078206 is caused by the new buys of B.EXCH. If there was a buyback, then NAV/U would go down further than the calculated-as-above NAV/U. Is this correct?
Actually, if there was a buy-back, the NAV/U would increase, as buybacks are done at 98% of the last published NAV/U.
The only time that NAV/U decreases is when SELL or MINE dividends are issued. Does that help?
I just noticed that the NAV/U I calculate automatically doesn't match the reported value. Now I want to be sure: The NAV/U from the API-available data is:
B.EXCH = 0.02172270
NAV/U = 0.02172270 / 1.03 = .021090 (day zero)
DIV(MINE) = 0.00010545
-> NAV/U today = NAV/U - 3*DIV(MINE) = .021090 - .00031635 = .02077365
The difference to the reported NAV/U of 0.02078206 is caused by the new buys of B.EXCH. If there was a buyback, then NAV/U would go down further than the calculated-as-above NAV/U. Is this correct?
B.EXCH = 0.02172270
NAV/U = 0.02172270 / 1.03 = .021090 (day zero)
DIV(MINE) = 0.00010545
-> NAV/U today = NAV/U - 3*DIV(MINE) = .021090 - .00031635 = .02077365
The difference to the reported NAV/U of 0.02078206 is caused by the new buys of B.EXCH. If there was a buyback, then NAV/U would go down further than the calculated-as-above NAV/U. Is this correct?
Period 18, Day 2 Report - August 22, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 311.54398430
Total Units: 14991
NAV/U: BTC 0.02078206
Balance Post Divs: BTC 311.54398430
Total Units: 14991
NAV/U: BTC 0.02078206
Just curious, what are everyone's strategies when you're considering whether or not to buy B.EXCH vs. either MINE or SELL (apart from clearing a set of bids above NAV/U)?
Period 18, Day 1 Report - August 21, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 310.29123743
Total Units: 14857
NAV/U: BTC 0.02088518
Balance Post Divs: BTC 310.29123743
Total Units: 14857
NAV/U: BTC 0.02088518
Period 18, Day 0 Report - August 20, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 300.68775512
Total Units: 14329
NAV/U: BTC 0.02098455
Balance Post Divs: BTC 300.68775512
Total Units: 14329
NAV/U: BTC 0.02098455
Period 17 End Report - August 20, 2014
Previous Units 12777
EXCH Sold 1671
Less Buybacks 119
New Total Units 14329
Previous Balance 312.99457435
Price per EXCH 0.02523161
Gross Sales of EXCH 42.16202031
Less Fees 0.16864812
Less Dividends 20.71307808
Less Buybacks 2.80162945
Less Mgmt Fee 0.81867303
Net Balance 330.65456598
End of Period NAV/U 0.02307589
New Difficulty 23,844,670,039
New Daily Dividend 0.00010545
New Reserve per Unit 0.02109000
NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.02307589 - 0.02109000 = 0.00198589
SELL Dividend 0.00198589
Days of Dividends On Hand ~219 (Before Sell Div)
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Price 0.02172270
Previous Units 12777
EXCH Sold 1671
Less Buybacks 119
New Total Units 14329
Previous Balance 312.99457435
Price per EXCH 0.02523161
Gross Sales of EXCH 42.16202031
Less Fees 0.16864812
Less Dividends 20.71307808
Less Buybacks 2.80162945
Less Mgmt Fee 0.81867303
Net Balance 330.65456598
End of Period NAV/U 0.02307589
New Difficulty 23,844,670,039
New Daily Dividend 0.00010545
New Reserve per Unit 0.02109000
NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.02307589 - 0.02109000 = 0.00198589
SELL Dividend 0.00198589
Days of Dividends On Hand ~219 (Before Sell Div)
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Price 0.02172270
Period 17, Day 11 Report - August 19, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.40608547
Total Units: 14116
NAV/U: BTC 0.02305228
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.40608547
Total Units: 14116
NAV/U: BTC 0.02305228
There should be a dividend for SELL this time?
Yes! Using our handy dandy daily div calculation: 5000000000 * 25 * 86400 * ( ( 65535 / 2^48 ) / Difficulty), where Difficulty is now 23,844,670,039
So, the daily div will now be 0.00010545, making the Reserve 0.00010545 * 200 = .02109.
The exact NAV/U won't be known until tomorrow at 11AM, due to new sells and possible buybacks, but we know that it will be at least today's NAV/U of 0.02305228
The NAV/U of today (0.02305228) less the new Reserve (.02109) = 0.00196228
So, the SELL dividend should be about 0.00196228 !
Excellent, my math skills are still ok
Period 17, Day 11 Report - August 19, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.40608547
Total Units: 14116
NAV/U: BTC 0.02305228
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.40608547
Total Units: 14116
NAV/U: BTC 0.02305228
There should be a dividend for SELL this time?
Yes! Using our handy dandy daily div calculation: 5000000000 * 25 * 86400 * ( ( 65535 / 2^48 ) / Difficulty), where Difficulty is now 23,844,670,039
So, the daily div will now be 0.00010545, making the Reserve 0.00010545 * 200 = .02109.
The exact NAV/U won't be known until tomorrow at 11AM, due to new sells and possible buybacks, but we know that it will be at least today's NAV/U of 0.02305228
The NAV/U of today (0.02305228) less the new Reserve (.02109) = 0.00196228
So, the SELL dividend should be about 0.00196228 !
Period 17, Day 11 Report - August 19, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.40608547
Total Units: 14116
NAV/U: BTC 0.02305228
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.40608547
Total Units: 14116
NAV/U: BTC 0.02305228
There should be a dividend for SELL this time?
Period 17, Day 11 Report - August 19, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.40608547
Total Units: 14116
NAV/U: BTC 0.02305228
Balance Post Divs: BTC 325.40608547
Total Units: 14116
NAV/U: BTC 0.02305228
Period 17, Day 10 Report - August 18, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 324.16064870
Total Units: 13993
NAV/U: BTC 0.02316591
Balance Post Divs: BTC 324.16064870
Total Units: 13993
NAV/U: BTC 0.02316591
Period 17, Day 9 Report - August 17, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 323.01166694
Total Units: 13874
NAV/U: BTC 0.02328179
Balance Post Divs: BTC 323.01166694
Total Units: 13874
NAV/U: BTC 0.02328179
Period 17, Day 8 Report - August 16, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 324.33623594
Total Units: 13856
NAV/U: BTC 0.02340763
Balance Post Divs: BTC 324.33623594
Total Units: 13856
NAV/U: BTC 0.02340763
We are thinking to invest in MINE AND SELL..Are dividends paid out daily? Or other ways?
MINE dividends are paid daily; SELL is paid after each difficulty change (if the difficulty has increased substantially enough to warrant it). You can speculate in one or the other, there's little point or profit to be made by buying equal amounts of both. I'd recommend reading the contract (in the OP) and then asking any other questions you have here.
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