Period 16, Day 1 Report - July 27, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 326.84564897
Total Units: 12589
NAV/U: BTC 0.02596279
Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 59. (Read 290235 times)
Period 15 End Report - July 26, 2014
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NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.02622950 - 0.02684000 = -0.00061050
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NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.02622950 - 0.02684000 = -0.00061050
Yep according what I have: deficit (-0.00061050) over new reserve (0.02684000)= 2.27459% ~ 2.275% + the 6.5% needed for the fund to be in excess should equal 8.775% or 8.775%/0.5% per day paid = 4.55 days' worth of deficit (essentially, this is debt that SELL owes MINE) + 13 days required for payments.
i avoid using my brain when i can
anyone know roughly what the next diff increase % has to be for a sell div?
thanks/sry
anyone know roughly what the next diff increase % has to be for a sell div?
thanks/sry
If the 2.3% deficit is right, then 8.8%
i avoid using my brain when i can
anyone know roughly what the next diff increase % has to be for a sell div?
thanks/sry
anyone know roughly what the next diff increase % has to be for a sell div?
thanks/sry
Period 16, Day 0 Report - July 26, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 326.58269643
Total Units: 12515
NAV/U: BTC 0.02609530
Balance Post Divs: BTC 326.58269643
Total Units: 12515
NAV/U: BTC 0.02609530
Period 15 End Report - July 26, 2014
Previous Units 11660
EXCH Sold 1064
Less Buybacks 209
New Total Units 12515
Previous Balance 327.17907460
Price per EXCH 0.02890175
Gross Sales of EXCH 30.75146200
Less Fees 0.12400584
Less Dividends 23.27645432
Less Buybacks 5.65284309
Less Mgmt Fee 0.61502392
Net Balance 328.26220943
End of Period NAV/U 0.02622950
New Difficulty 18,736,441,558
New Daily Dividend 0.00013420
New Reserve per Unit 0.02684000
NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.02622950 - 0.02684000 = -0.00061050
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than the new Reserve (200 Days of Dividends))
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Price 0.02701639
Previous Units 11660
EXCH Sold 1064
Less Buybacks 209
New Total Units 12515
Previous Balance 327.17907460
Price per EXCH 0.02890175
Gross Sales of EXCH 30.75146200
Less Fees 0.12400584
Less Dividends 23.27645432
Less Buybacks 5.65284309
Less Mgmt Fee 0.61502392
Net Balance 328.26220943
End of Period NAV/U 0.02622950
New Difficulty 18,736,441,558
New Daily Dividend 0.00013420
New Reserve per Unit 0.02684000
NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.02622950 - 0.02684000 = -0.00061050
SELL Dividend None (Because NAV/U is less than the new Reserve (200 Days of Dividends))
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Price 0.02701639
Difficulty of 18,736,441,558 means daily div is 0.0001342 BTC.
0.0001342 * 200 = .02684
Using yesterdays NAV/U of 0.02622950 ... look like we are still 2.3% short (~4.5 days) of having a Dividend for B.Sell.
Wow!
0.0001342 * 200 = .02684
Using yesterdays NAV/U of 0.02622950 ... look like we are still 2.3% short (~4.5 days) of having a Dividend for B.Sell.
Wow!
Great explanation. Thank you very much! 
One more question: I know you post the daily Balance Post Divs. How is the daily Balance calculated?
One more question: I know you post the daily Balance Post Divs. How is the daily Balance calculated?You're welcome! The Balance Post Divs is just the total of the EXCH+MINE+SELL accounts (total account balance) less the current management fee.
The NAV/U is simply the total net asset value (all balances, less management fee) divided by the total number of outstanding MINE/SELL pairs.
Expected next Bitcoin difficulty change is currently at +7.61% in about 6.5 hours. Will there be a B.SELL dividend issued tomorrow?
I highly recommend creating your own excel sheet or modifying Lohoris' to suit BDD. If you do, make sure that you don't take into account the extra 10 day buffer than DMS had (BDD does not have this).
Remember I created this spreadsheet for DMS, it should be easy to tune it to work with BDD.
A quick and easy way to check to see if there will be a SELL Dividend issued is to perform the Div Calculation with the Next Difficulty (or expected Next Difficulty) and then multiply it by 200 Days.
The expected next Difficulty is 18,700,088,224, which will provide a pretty good estimate since there are only ~25 blocks until the change. Plug that into the Div Formula (Hint Hint: http://wolfr.am/1riNM1w)
This gives us a new daily div of about 0.00013446
0.00013446 * 200 = 0.026892
So, we know that the new Reserve is 0.026892. In order for a Dividend to be issued to SELL, the NAV/U has to be higher than the new Reserve.
We don't know the exact NAV/U for tomorrow, as more EXCH could be sold or MINE/SELL pairs bought back. But, we know today's NAV/U, which is 0.02622950
So, is the NAV/U (0.02622950) > The Reserve (0.026892)?
Nope. So, there is no excess capital on hand and, therefore, no SELL dividend will be issued tomorrow (barring something unlikely happening, of course - and these are estimates, but most likely very close to where we will be tomorrow).
I realize that this is a long answer to a short question, but I'm trying to teach you to fish here.
TL;DR Read it, it's not even that long.
One more question: I know you post the daily Balance Post Divs. How is the daily Balance calculated? Expected next Bitcoin difficulty change is currently at +7.61% in about 6.5 hours. Will there be a B.SELL dividend issued tomorrow?
I highly recommend creating your own excel sheet or modifying Lohoris' to suit BDD. If you do, make sure that you don't take into account the extra 10 day buffer than DMS had (BDD does not have this).
Remember I created this spreadsheet for DMS, it should be easy to tune it to work with BDD.
A quick and easy way to check to see if there will be a SELL Dividend issued is to perform the Div Calculation with the Next Difficulty (or expected Next Difficulty) and then multiply it by 200 Days.
The expected next Difficulty is 18,700,088,224, which will provide a pretty good estimate since there are only ~25 blocks until the change. Plug that into the Div Formula (Hint Hint: http://wolfr.am/1riNM1w)
This gives us a new daily div of about 0.00013446
0.00013446 * 200 = 0.026892
So, we know that the new Reserve is 0.026892. In order for a Dividend to be issued to SELL, the NAV/U has to be higher than the new Reserve.
We don't know the exact NAV/U for tomorrow, as more EXCH could be sold or MINE/SELL pairs bought back. But, we know today's NAV/U, which is 0.02622950
So, is the NAV/U (0.02622950) > The Reserve (0.026892)?
Nope. So, there is no excess capital on hand and, therefore, no SELL dividend will be issued tomorrow (barring something unlikely happening, of course - and these are estimates, but most likely very close to where we will be tomorrow).
I realize that this is a long answer to a short question, but I'm trying to teach you to fish here.
TL;DR Read it, it's not even that long.
Remember I created this spreadsheet for DMS, it should be easy to tune it to work with BDD.
Expected next Bitcoin difficulty change is currently at +7.61% in about 6.5 hours. Will there be a B.SELL dividend issued tomorrow?
Period 15, Day 12 Report - July 25, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 328.26220943
Total Units: 12515
NAV/U: BTC 0.02622950
Balance Post Divs: BTC 328.26220943
Total Units: 12515
NAV/U: BTC 0.02622950
Period 15, Day 11 Report - July 24, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 330.04917692
Total Units: 12514
NAV/U: BTC 0.02637439
Balance Post Divs: BTC 330.04917692
Total Units: 12514
NAV/U: BTC 0.02637439
I would just like to say that I am receiving daily dividends on B.Mine and it all looks great.
Period 15, Day 10 Report - July 23, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 331.86420748
Total Units: 12514
NAV/U: BTC 0.02651943
Balance Post Divs: BTC 331.86420748
Total Units: 12514
NAV/U: BTC 0.02651943
Period 15, Day 9 Report - July 22, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 332.80478654
Total Units: 12483
NAV/U: BTC 0.02666064
Balance Post Divs: BTC 332.80478654
Total Units: 12483
NAV/U: BTC 0.02666064
I started trading B.Mine and B.Sell because I noticed that B.Exch was cheaper than the pair. I was buy B.Exch, sell the parts and end up with a noticeable profit. I did this for about 100 shares and then there wasn't any profit left. At that point I started using the B.Exch to buy B.Mine cheaper than I could otherwise buy B.Mine. Those opportunities don't last, but it got me started. 
That means you get the arbitrage portion, then!
It was cool while it lasted. I'm a bit fuzzy about going the other way, transferring equal amounts of B.Mine & B.Sell to [email protected] and get back 2% less than the NAV. However is that the period NAV or daily NAV. Also I assume that is a manual exchange and may take a while. So I haven't tried that yet.
Buy-back is calculated as 98% of the last published Daily NAV/U, if that helps. It is a manual process, but I have them out within 24 hours.
Could you please advise how the hash rate is calculated? Is it based on the daily average of found blocks calculated with the current difficulty? I am thinking in terms of short/medium/long term variance.
Thank you
Thank you
Hashrate is calculated using the following formula:
B.MINE Hash Rate * Block Reward * 86400 * ((65535 / 2^48 )/Difficulty)
B.MINE Hash Rate is the set hash rate, in H/s (hashes per second) of B.MINE. This is set at 5GH/s (5,000,000,000 H/s)
Block Reward is the Bitcoin Network Block Reward for the current Difficulty. This is currently at 25 BTC per Block and will remain so until about sometime during 2016. However, When the actual Bitcoin Network Block Reward halves, this value will halve as well.
86400 is the number of seconds in a day, which is relevant because Bitcoin mining computation power is measured in hashes per second (H/s)
65535 / 2^48 is the constant which is divided by Difficulty to produce the likelihood of producing a Block in a single hash
Difficulty is the Bitcoin Network Difficulty at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on the day that dividends are paid out
Here's the Wolfram Alpha link for this Period's Div Calculations: http://wolfr.am/1ubycKC
Could you please advise how the hash rate is calculated? Is it based on the daily average of found blocks calculated with the current difficulty? I am thinking in terms of short/medium/long term variance.
Thank you
Thank you
I started trading B.Mine and B.Sell because I noticed that B.Exch was cheaper than the pair. I was buy B.Exch, sell the parts and end up with a noticeable profit. I did this for about 100 shares and then there wasn't any profit left. At that point I started using the B.Exch to buy B.Mine cheaper than I could otherwise buy B.Mine. Those opportunities don't last, but it got me started.
That means you get the arbitrage portion, then!
It was cool while it lasted. I'm a bit fuzzy about going the other way, transferring equal amounts of B.Mine & B.Sell to [email protected] and get back 2% less than the NAV. However is that the period NAV or daily NAV. Also I assume that is a manual exchange and may take a while. So I haven't tried that yet.
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