Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 73. (Read 290235 times)

can you post or PM me the most current contracts for B.Mine and B.Sell

thanks

Period 7, Day 2 Report - April 7, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 438.46498661

Total Units: 5408

NAV/U: BTC 0.08107710

Period 7, Day 1 Report - April 6, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 437.78809153

Total Units: 5373

NAV/U: BTC 0.08147926


Big volume in the last day!

I'll be away from the computer for most of the day today, so the report will be posted later this afternoon or early this evening. I'll be able to do exchanges as needed from my phone; MINE dividends will be paid normally.

Yep, they are working on it - I followed up on it was this past week. I've been told that it's at the top of the to-do list, but that's also been its on-again, off-again priority for the last month.

I appreciate the vote of approval on the management fee; I'm going to try to stick it out a little longer to try and make good on the community's wish to get Auto-EXCH implemented before the fee. I'll put the 'motion' out to everyone again if this does end up being the case.

And, if it does, I promise to send an email every other day to Havelock about it with lots of capital letters and exclamations points  - only half kidding, /u/havelock 

The market value column in the portfolio should display the value I have if I would sell my shares; therefor the bid price would be the one to calculate with.

We'll take a look at adding the bid/ask column. The last purchase price should be the last indicative price. Otherwise some would want the ask and some would want the bid.

Current bid and ask (sorry, 2 columns). And while you're at it, can you please change the price in the portfolio to the current bid price (not the price of the last trade).

What column did you want added to the overview page?

I don't want to bother you again with asking what auto-exchange is doing. I know you would like to see this feature introduced yourself, but it seems it won't happen in the not to distant future. Weeks ago I asked Havelock to add a column in the funds overview page (5 min work), and they answered they are already reworking the page. Guess what happens... nothing.

So if you want to add your 2% fee the next round, I would have no problems with it.

Period 7, Day 0 Report - April 5, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 415.03976932

Total Units: 5076

NAV/U: BTC 0.08176512

Big jump this time! It will be interesting to see how AM's Gen 3 affects the difficulty in the coming months-

Period 6 End Report - April 5, 2014


Previous Units              4379
EXCH Sold                   697
Less Buybacks              0
New Total Units            5076

Previous Balance          439.83555568
Price per EXCH             0.10144642
Gross Sales of EXCH      70.70815474

Less Fees                    0.28283286
Less Dividends              26.72962504
Less Buybacks              0.00000000
Net Balance                  483.53125252

End of Period 6 NAV/U     0.09525832

New Difficulty                  6,119,726,089
New Daily Dividend      0.00041088
New Reserve                   0.08217600

NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.09525832 - 0.08217600 = 0.01308232

SELL Dividend                 0.01308232

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.

New EXCH Sales Price          0.08299776


Divs will be scheduled for 12PM but, as always, wait until you get the email or see them in your account to assume that they've been paid. There can be a delay for a few minutes.

Normal time is Noon Eastern Time (US). I just took down the EXCH ask, so dividends should be paid at the regular Noon time today, a little over an hour from now.

when are div's paid out??

when is the 'normal' time?

Period 6, Day 10 Report - April 4, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 481.91460238

Total Units: 5060

NAV/U: BTC 0.09524004


It looks like the Difficulty will change within the next 24 hours, quite possibly close to the Noon Dividend Time. If the change happens before 1030AM, I should have everything out on time. If it happens after 1030AM, I should have everything done in time for sending Divs at 1PM.

I'll post an update here tomorrow with information about that as/if needed.

We are also now over 5,000 shares issued for the Derivative - thanks to everyone that has participated thus far!

Period 6, Day 9 Report - April 3, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 477.58502185

Total Units: 4992

NAV/U: BTC 0.09567007

Over the long term, B.SELL will decrease no matter what. This reason for this is that it is matched 'against' B.MINE. If the difficulty continues to increase as it has, there will be excess capital left over after each difficulty period. This capital will be paid out to B.SELL in the form of a dividend. However, the market value of B.SELL decreases by exactly the amount of that dividend - once that dividend is paid, the fund has less capital on hand, so the Net Asset Value of the fund decreases.

If the difficulty stagnates or decreases, the likelihood that all of the fund's capital will be paid out to B.MINE is high, so B.SELL would decrease significantly.

B.SELL is a bet that people will over-pay for B.MINE, which acts as a 5GH/s mining bond - it pays out a certain dividend per day based on the Bitcoin Network Difficulty.

B.SELL may increase over the short term as it becomes more clear what this period's Difficulty Change is going to look like - right now it looks as if the Difficulty is about to increase about 21% in about three days (https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty).

So, likely sometime on Saturday, the Diff will increase to an estimated 6,067,506,227 - let's use this as an example for the below.

So, if the Difficulty increased to exactly, 6,067,506,227 we would need to calculate what B.MINE would be paying out daily.

Using our formula to calculated B.MINE's Daily Dividend, we get:

5 GH/s in hashes per second * 25 BTC per Block * Number of Seconds per day * (Probability Constant that a hash will generate a block / divided by difficulty)

5000000000 * 25 * 86400 * ( ( 65535 / 2^48 ) / 6067506227)

Plug these values in and we get 0.00041442 (round to 8 digits, always round down) (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=5000000000+*+25+*+86400+*+%28+%28+65535+%2F+2%5E48+%29+%2F+6067506227%29).

So, we know that at that new difficulty B.MINE would pay out .00041442 per Day. The fund is required to keep 200 Days of capital on hand in Reserve, so 200 * .00041442 = .082884

So, the new Reserve is .082884, that's what the fund is required to have on hand.

Right now, the NAV/U (Net Asset Value per Unit) is .09611805 as I just reported. We still have three more days of dividends to pay at the current rate, which is 0.00050221 per day. So, the NAV/U less the dividends to be paid is .09611805 - .00050221 * 3 = .09461142

So, we can estimate that our NAV/U will be .09461142 at the end of the period. To calculate the SELL dividend, just subtract the New Reserve from the estimated NAV/U:
.09461142 - .082884 = .01172742

.01172742 would be the upcoming SELL dividend based on the new Difficulty that we used.

I may have gotten too far into how to calculate the dividend here, but it's a good resource for anyone wondering how to do so.

Period 6, Day 8 Report - April 2, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 474.53481930

Total Units: 4937

NAV/U: BTC 0.09611805

will b.sell go up? or is the gamble playing off the down trend? I know i sound stupid. serious question though. i don't understand and got in over my head with this one.