Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 69. (Read 290305 times)

Period 10, Day 9 Report - May 21, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 461.55854118

Total Units: 8548

NAV/U: BTC 0.05399608

To give everyone an advance heads-up, it looks like the difficulty will change on Saturday after Noon, meaning that the report and SELL dividend will be issued on Sunday. I have an engagement that I cannot miss for most of Sunday, so the dividend (both MINE and SELL) and the report will be tentatively scheduled for 9PM Eastern on Sunday.

I do apologize for the change in schedule, but life does indeed get in the way at times. I'll just hope (along with SELL holders) that the difficulty continues to increase and the change will instead happen Friday, leading to a div instead being issued Saturday.

Decease of Havelock? jk. Decrease vs. Increase, yes. Decrease seems highly unlikely right now but still what are the numbers? What if difficulty increases by, say, 16% everytime? What if it this increase decreases by 1% everytime and so on. Lively examples would be helpful!

I saw that, it's getting up there! The probability of the end-game via decease versus the probability of end-game via increase, you mean?

Sell dividend is gonna be better this time around
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 20% and rising.

Could someone elaborate on the probability of both the exit scenarios a little? The more math the better!

Period 10, Day 8 Report - May 20, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 463.98625866

Total Units: 8548

NAV/U: BTC 0.05428009

Period 10, Day 7 Report - May 19, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 466.46744883

Total Units: 8549

NAV/U: BTC 0.05456397

Thanks - average time is probably a few hours, depending on what time of day it is (and/or if I'm sleeping, of course). I have just cleared all buy-backs; I transfer the funds by actually issuing shares of SELL and buying them back for the NAV/U * 98% (since Havelock doesn't have a direct BTC transfer tool).

hey TS - what's the average wait between transferring MINE/SELL to you and you logging in and transferring the funds?

EDit (reference) - talking about converting to EXCH shares for buyback

cool fund, btw.

Period 10, Day 6 Report - May 18, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 473.73202422

Total Units: 8639

NAV/U: BTC 0.05483644

Period 10, Day 5 Report - May 17, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 476.67173880

Total Units: 8648

NAV/U: BTC 0.05511930

Will be out of town for the night, so report will be posted tomorrow. Dividends will be paid normally

Period 10, Day 4 Report - May 16, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 479.12785728

Total Units: 8648

NAV/U: BTC 0.05540331

Period 10, Day 3 Report - May 15, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 481.29827303

Total Units: 8643

NAV/U: BTC 0.05568648

Period 10, Day 2 Report - May 14, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 485.39838926

Total Units: 8673

NAV/U: BTC 0.05596660

BIG sell-off on SELL today, interesting to hee how the market has reacted...

Period 10, Day 1 Report - May 13, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 489.95619687

Total Units: 8711

NAV/U: BTC 0.05624568

Thanks, I try 

Excellent and precise care as always! 

Period 10, Day 0 Report - May 12, 2014

Balance Post Divs: BTC 483.56795141

Total Units: 8556

NAV/U: BTC 0.05651799

PHEW.

SELL Div 2 Paid; Putting back up EXCH ask now.

So, a user transferred 124 shares to be bought back at 1140AM, after I had already issued the report and scheduled the dividends.

This results in an increase to the NAV/U because the shares are bought back for 98% of NAV/U, meaning that the SELL div was slightly underpaid.

I've re-generated the report here; the short version is that the SELL div was underpaid by 1718 satoshis (.00001718 BTC) per share. This isn't much per share (less than 1% of the SELL div that was issued), but it does add up across nearly 9,000 shares.

I'm going to issue a second dividend for SELL today, for .00001718, to be paid at 1PM. Those that have already sold their SELL shares will not receive this dividend, as it will go to current holders of SELL. I apologize to those who will miss out on this, but it is a miniscule per-share amount and I will take steps in the future to ensure that this does not happen again.

In the future, all buy-backs will be halted at 11AM on the date that SELL Dividends will be paid.


I will re-enable the EXCH ask after the new SELL div is paid to ensure that no new shares are paid the dividend.

Period 9 End Report - May 12, 2014 - Version 2

Previous Units              7589
EXCH Sold                   1241
Less Buybacks              574
New Total Units            8556

Previous Balance          477.01421336
Price per EXCH             0.06474168
Gross Sales of EXCH      80.34442488

Less Fees                    0.32137787
Less Dividends              31.71273768
Less Buybacks              16.39452441
Less Mgmt Fee              1.78136863
Net Balance                  507.14862965

End of Period 9 NAV/U     0.05927403

New Difficulty                  8,853,416,309
New Daily Dividend         0.00028401
New Reserve per Unit        0.05680200

NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.05927403 - 0.05680200 = 0.00247203

SELL Dividend                 0.00247203

You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.

New EXCH Sales Price          0.05850606

Divs were paid on time - one user sent back shares to be bought-back at 1140AM and I didn't see it until now. I should have made this more clear, but 11AM should be the cut off for these transactions.

It will be in the future; let me re-run the calculations and see what needs to be done.