Period 8, Day 7 Report - April 25, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 502.6527933600
Total Units: 7210
NAV/U: BTC 0.06971606
Topic: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - page 71. (Read 290305 times)
Period 8, Day 6 Report - April 24, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 497.63916067
Total Units: 7105
NAV/U: BTC 0.07004069
Balance Post Divs: BTC 497.63916067
Total Units: 7105
NAV/U: BTC 0.07004069
Period 8, Day 5 Report - April 23, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 497.22702338
Total Units: 7064
NAV/U: BTC 0.07038887
Balance Post Divs: BTC 497.22702338
Total Units: 7064
NAV/U: BTC 0.07038887
Period 8, Day 4 Report - April 22, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 487.15901259
Total Units: 6890
NAV/U: BTC 0.07070522
Processed a buy-back today for 100 Shares-
Balance Post Divs: BTC 487.15901259
Total Units: 6890
NAV/U: BTC 0.07070522
Processed a buy-back today for 100 Shares-
Period 8, Day 3 Report - April 21, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 496.2413291800
Total Units: 6985
NAV/U: BTC 0.07104385
Again, 1800 shares were bought back last night so the number of shares (and absolute funds on hand) has decreased. Even after today's MINE dividends, the NAV/U actually increased due to the fact that shares are bought back at 98% of NAV/U (as all buy-backs are).
Balance Post Divs: BTC 496.2413291800
Total Units: 6985
NAV/U: BTC 0.07104385
Again, 1800 shares were bought back last night so the number of shares (and absolute funds on hand) has decreased. Even after today's MINE dividends, the NAV/U actually increased due to the fact that shares are bought back at 98% of NAV/U (as all buy-backs are).
In case anyone is wondering about the significant decrease in the number of outstanding shares, I've just done a buy-back for 1800 shares for a shareholder. Cheers-
Period 8, Day 2 Report - April 20, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 610.58923837
Total Units: 8600
NAV/U: BTC 0.07099874
Balance Post Divs: BTC 610.58923837
Total Units: 8600
NAV/U: BTC 0.07099874
Period 8, Day 1 Report - April 19, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 608.17861768
Total Units: 8524
NAV/U: BTC 0.07134896
From here on out the balance and NAV/U do take accumulated management fees into account. Today's report also reflects my refund of 0.00014747 BTC to the fund for the buy-back overpayment due to the slightly increased NAV/U for the last period (say that five times fast!).
Balance Post Divs: BTC 608.17861768
Total Units: 8524
NAV/U: BTC 0.07134896
From here on out the balance and NAV/U do take accumulated management fees into account. Today's report also reflects my refund of 0.00014747 BTC to the fund for the buy-back overpayment due to the slightly increased NAV/U for the last period (say that five times fast!).
I know variance is a bitch, but really that much?! 
The hash rate is computed based upon the daily average of found blocks and the current difficulty. It is not directly reported. So, the variance you see probably has more to do with the random luck of finding coins rather than the actual computing power of the network. So, if a bunch of blocks are found in a short period of time, the algorithm infers there was a large hash rate increase, even though the actual hash rate may have not changed. As the rate of finding blocks returns to normal, the inferred hash rate decreases. Since it is averaged over time, you see these relatively smooth rises and falls.
In short, the swings mean absolutely nothing other than pure variance. The longer term trend of course does indicate the increase in total network has rate.
In short, the swings mean absolutely nothing other than pure variance. The longer term trend of course does indicate the increase in total network has rate.
Yes, that's what I meant when I was referring to 'luck' (miner's luck) in my previous post. eltopo and I are aware of how the network hashrate is estimated and that it could just be variance; to our eyes it looks like more than just miner's luck, but it's anyone guess!
Period 8, Day 0 Report - April 18, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 603.78325069
Total Units: 8421
NAV/U: BTC 0.07169970
Balance Post Divs: BTC 603.78325069
Total Units: 8421
NAV/U: BTC 0.07169970
Period 7 End Report - April 18, 2014
Previous Units 5076
EXCH Sold 3347
Less Buybacks 2
New Total Units 8421
Previous Balance 417.12539620
Price per EXCH 0.08299776
Gross Sales of EXCH 277.79350272
Less Fees 1.11117401
Less Dividends 39.43174272
Less Buybacks 0.15969934
Net Balance 654.21628285
End of Period 7 NAV/U 0.07768866
New Difficulty 6,978,842,650
New Daily Dividend 0.00036030
New Reserve per Unit 0.07206000
NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.07768866 - 0.07206000 = 0.00562866
SELL Dividend 0.00562866
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Price 0.07422180
Upon doing my Period audit, I noticed that the Fund's actual balance (vs. calculated balance) was too high by 0.404xxx BTC. After much searching (and gnashing of teeth), I tracked the surplus back to 4/5, which was the day of the last Sell Div / Period Report. Apparently, when the EXCH ask was placed back up at the new price, a user purchased 22 EXCH for the old EXCH price of 0.1014464200 each instead of 0.0829977600 each, causing him to overpay by that amount.
I'm not sure how it was possible for him to purchase at the old (higher) price as I always take down the EXCH ask while doing the report; it may have something to do with the fact that he purchased at the exact second that I put up the new EXCH ask (good reflexes perhaps). I even checked my records and I did put up the EXCH at the new, lower EXCH amount.
I'll speak to Havelock about the issue. I should have caught the surplus on 4/6 when I did the daily report and I apologize for that; I do have a side-by-side column for each amount built in to the sheet, but it seems that was not paying enough attention to the digits past the period. Normally, I check down to the Satoshi. I've now built in a very obvious double-check to keep this from happening in the future.
Overall, This means that the NAV/U was (very) slightly over-reported for the Period; a negligible amount when spread over six to eight thousand shares. I was the only person to request a buy-back during the Period (for 2 shares), meaning that I was over-paid back 0.0001474641 BTC, for which I will reimburse the fund. The report above also takes into account the refund of the overpayment to the user that bought EXCH for the old price, as that should have not been possible and was not due to user or Issuer error.
Previous Units 5076
EXCH Sold 3347
Less Buybacks 2
New Total Units 8421
Previous Balance 417.12539620
Price per EXCH 0.08299776
Gross Sales of EXCH 277.79350272
Less Fees 1.11117401
Less Dividends 39.43174272
Less Buybacks 0.15969934
Net Balance 654.21628285
End of Period 7 NAV/U 0.07768866
New Difficulty 6,978,842,650
New Daily Dividend 0.00036030
New Reserve per Unit 0.07206000
NAV/U Less New Reserve = 0.07768866 - 0.07206000 = 0.00562866
SELL Dividend 0.00562866
You'll notice that I calculate the new Dividend to eight digits and multiply that times 200 Days to get the new Reserve. Those of you that did your own calculations may come up with a slightly different number if you chose not to round or to round elsewhere.
New EXCH Sales Price 0.07422180
Upon doing my Period audit, I noticed that the Fund's actual balance (vs. calculated balance) was too high by 0.404xxx BTC. After much searching (and gnashing of teeth), I tracked the surplus back to 4/5, which was the day of the last Sell Div / Period Report. Apparently, when the EXCH ask was placed back up at the new price, a user purchased 22 EXCH for the old EXCH price of 0.1014464200 each instead of 0.0829977600 each, causing him to overpay by that amount.
I'm not sure how it was possible for him to purchase at the old (higher) price as I always take down the EXCH ask while doing the report; it may have something to do with the fact that he purchased at the exact second that I put up the new EXCH ask (good reflexes perhaps). I even checked my records and I did put up the EXCH at the new, lower EXCH amount.
I'll speak to Havelock about the issue. I should have caught the surplus on 4/6 when I did the daily report and I apologize for that; I do have a side-by-side column for each amount built in to the sheet, but it seems that was not paying enough attention to the digits past the period. Normally, I check down to the Satoshi. I've now built in a very obvious double-check to keep this from happening in the future.
Overall, This means that the NAV/U was (very) slightly over-reported for the Period; a negligible amount when spread over six to eight thousand shares. I was the only person to request a buy-back during the Period (for 2 shares), meaning that I was over-paid back 0.0001474641 BTC, for which I will reimburse the fund. The report above also takes into account the refund of the overpayment to the user that bought EXCH for the old price, as that should have not been possible and was not due to user or Issuer error.
The hash rate is computed based upon the daily average of found blocks and the current difficulty. It is not directly reported. So, the variance you see probably has more to do with the random luck of finding coins rather than the actual computing power of the network. So, if a bunch of blocks are found in a short period of time, the algorithm infers there was a large hash rate increase, even though the actual hash rate may have not changed. As the rate of finding blocks returns to normal, the inferred hash rate decreases. Since it is averaged over time, you see these relatively smooth rises and falls.
In short, the swings mean absolutely nothing other than pure variance. The longer term trend of course does indicate the increase in total network has rate.
In short, the swings mean absolutely nothing other than pure variance. The longer term trend of course does indicate the increase in total network has rate.
I'm really wondering where those massive swings come from... +15 PH in a single day, and -15 PH the other day. That would be 15000 miners of the newest 1 TH generation hitting the network and then vanish again.... perhaps manufacturers "testing" their costumers hardware before shipping?
I've been pretty surprised to see the swings as well - I don't think anyone has come up with a great explanation for such a large swing besides new hardware manufacturers testing equipment (and luck of course). I certainly can't think of one.
B.MINE holders rejoice as block generations slow a bit, allowing one more day of divs at the current rate!
I'm really wondering where those massive swings come from... +15 PH in a single day, and -15 PH the other day. That would be 15000 miners of the newest 1 TH generation hitting the network and then vanish again.... perhaps manufacturers "testing" their costumers hardware before shipping?
B.MINE holders rejoice as block generations slow a bit, allowing one more day of divs at the current rate!
Period 7, Day 12 Report - April 17, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 654.62053002
Total Units: 8421
NAV/U: BTC 0.07773667
EDIT: Updated the OP to show the Auto-EXCH functionality and to add the Management Fee verbiage. Mgmt fee begins on all sales of EXCH after tomorrow's Period Report and MINE/SELL Divs.
Thanks to everyone who waited it out for this functionality to be enabled, I've been very happy with it so far and I hope you have as well!
Period 7, Day 12 Report - April 17, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 654.62053002
Total Units: 8421
NAV/U: BTC 0.07773667
EDIT: Updated the OP to show the Auto-EXCH functionality and to add the Management Fee verbiage. Mgmt fee begins on all sales of EXCH after tomorrow's Period Report and MINE/SELL Divs.
Thanks to everyone who waited it out for this functionality to be enabled, I've been very happy with it so far and I hope you have as well!
Had a question today regarding buy-backs; wanted to copy it here in case anyone else has questions about it-
Currently, the fund will buy-back share pairs at NAV/U (net asset value per unit) less 2% (not plus 2%). The NAV/U is posted every day in the Bitcointalk thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430137.260). So, if you choose to initiate a buy-back before Noon, each share pair will be purchased for 0.07814755 * .98% = 0.07658459 per pair.
If you choose to initiate a buy-back after Noon tomorrow (all times ET), it will be processed at that Daily NAV/U less 2%. If the difficulty changes before Noon, and you do not initiate a buy-back before Noon, then your shares will be paid the MINE and SELL dividends and the NAV/U will fall accordingly.
If you do intend to initiate a buy-back, please let me know before 11AM if at all possible since I may have to do my report between 11AM and Noon tomorrow.
Currently, the fund will buy-back share pairs at NAV/U (net asset value per unit) less 2% (not plus 2%). The NAV/U is posted every day in the Bitcointalk thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430137.260). So, if you choose to initiate a buy-back before Noon, each share pair will be purchased for 0.07814755 * .98% = 0.07658459 per pair.
If you choose to initiate a buy-back after Noon tomorrow (all times ET), it will be processed at that Daily NAV/U less 2%. If the difficulty changes before Noon, and you do not initiate a buy-back before Noon, then your shares will be paid the MINE and SELL dividends and the NAV/U will fall accordingly.
If you do intend to initiate a buy-back, please let me know before 11AM if at all possible since I may have to do my report between 11AM and Noon tomorrow.
Period 7, Day 11 Report - April 16, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 658.08055050
Total Units: 8421
NAV/U: BTC 0.07814755
Difficulty increase is dipping again, so it looks like the Increase will happen tomorrow after 12PM. If that's the case, then the SELL Div will be issued Friday.
If the Increase happens tomorrow (Thursday) before 1030AM, the SELL/MINE dividends should be issued at 12PM as usual. In the case that it happen somewhere between 1030AM - 12PM (as it looks like it might), the dividends will be issued at 1PM most likely.
Balance Post Divs: BTC 658.08055050
Total Units: 8421
NAV/U: BTC 0.07814755
Difficulty increase is dipping again, so it looks like the Increase will happen tomorrow after 12PM. If that's the case, then the SELL Div will be issued Friday.
If the Increase happens tomorrow (Thursday) before 1030AM, the SELL/MINE dividends should be issued at 12PM as usual. In the case that it happen somewhere between 1030AM - 12PM (as it looks like it might), the dividends will be issued at 1PM most likely.
Period 7, Day 10 Report - April 15, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 658.56460329
Total Units: 8385
NAV/U: BTC 0.07854079
Balance Post Divs: BTC 658.56460329
Total Units: 8385
NAV/U: BTC 0.07854079
Period 7, Day 9 Report - April 14, 2014
Balance Post Divs: BTC 656.80188862
Total Units: 8322
NAV/U: BTC 0.07892356
Difficulty increase stalled there for a while and now it's back up - very interesting time for the network!
Balance Post Divs: BTC 656.80188862
Total Units: 8322
NAV/U: BTC 0.07892356
Difficulty increase stalled there for a while and now it's back up - very interesting time for the network!
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