Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 128. (Read 565833 times)

What do you mean by "It's not profitable"?

It doesn't return the full price of a share in one year dividends?

assuming BTC value does not move

idk about hosting fee, took data from MySike

I don't understand why your hosting fees are going down (and so far below cryptx's own estimates) while the peta hashrate is going up.

If you are basing this on BTC exchange rate going to the moon, why not add the column for the exchange rate, so that this best case scenario is compared against holding BTC instead?

it does matter, because increases in their revenue is directly tied to the reinvestment's and performance vs network
its in their interest to make sure the hashrate keeps going up, if they want long term revenue they need to make sure they keep mined BTC above the threshold required to maintain their market position

also for future projects they need to maintain a degree of profitability for investors

No need, because it's bullshit, are you going to run scenarios for every BTC/USD possible value for the next 12 months and possible deals on hardware that CryptX might find in the near future, or 8 months from now?

Using current BTC price for the next 12 months is just bullshit...

Here's the thing, everything is already set in motion and regardless of if a single share in this IPO is bought CryptX still wins. He still gets his 25% hosting fee and the shareholders are left footing the bill, it'll take a while to pay back the company he bought the miners from but it doesn't matter. He gets his 25% every week and shareholders pay the bill from dividends. Share price doesn't matter CrytpX still makes the same amount of BTC, IPO doesn't matter, just means even less dividends for shareholders.

There is no way for CryptX to lose on this deal unless you use your voting power as shareholders to request the original 35% reinvestment to be used to pay back the company and request 65% in dividends like in the original prospectus. This will at least get you a nice ROI in the upcoming months but the mine will die within the year. This is the best choice for shareholders imo.

I'll post the 52 week data in just a minute.

Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished.
Difficulty         Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends
10092894592   72248.856       1500.000          523.192           130.798        392.394      353.155         39.2394
11606828781   83086.185       1500.000          454.949           113.737        341.212      296.854         44.3575
11606828781   83086.185       1595.000          483.77             119.064        364.706      302.706         62.000
13347853098   95549.112       1674.000          441.505           107.561        333.944      263.816         70.128
13347853098   95549.112       1755.000          462.869           111.778        351.091      263.318         87.773
15350031063   109881.479     1825.000          418.548           100.510        318.38        226.050         92.330
17652535722   126363.701     1895.000          377.915            90.393         287.522      195.515         92.007
17652535722   126363.701     1955.000          389.880            93.084         296.796      192.918         103.879
20300416080   145318.256     2007.000          348.044            83.048         264.996      161.648         103.349
20300416080   145318.256     2058.000          356.888            85.215         271.673      157.570         114.103



and i expect it will go even better as btc value goes up and hardware cost/Gh goes down, which is not factored in here

The dividend will suffer a loss during the first few weeks after IPO but the additional reinvestment will actually keep up with the difficulty increase longer than the original 35% reinvestment plan. As you can see in the realistic projection it will take an extra week to pay off the debt but the estimated BTC each week is also greater that the mine will yield. Notice how the estimated BTC column stays at a higher yield compared to the first prediction at 35% reinvestment and you will understand how a higher dividend is possible after 10 weeks of operation.  Since CryptX's predictions are based on 10 day periods and mine are on 7 day periods to equal the target blocktime the reinvestment % is down to 2.1% which when averaged out to CryptX's 10 day of 3% less will be almost the same.

Worst case.
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   353.154   39.239   1917.761
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   299.925   221.788   1695.973
11606828781   83086.185   1680.637   509.737   127.434   382.302   328.015   248.497   1447.476
13347853098   95549.112   1834.048   483.710   120.927   362.782   303.649   235.808   1211.668
13347853098   95549.112   2001.827   527.959   131.990   395.970   323.111   257.380   954.288
15350031063   109881.479   2157.143   494.715   123.679   371.036   294.974   241.173   713.114
17652535722   126363.701   2322.413   463.146   115.786   347.359   268.856   225.784   487.331
17652535722   126363.701   2473.292   493.235   123.309   369.926   278.554   240.452   246.879
20300416080   145318.256   2610.811   452.747   113.187   339.560   248.558   220.714   26.164
20300416080   145318.256   2753.290   477.455   119.364   358.091   254.603   232.759   -206.595

Best case.
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   353.154   39.239   -39.239
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   299.925   221.788   -261.027
11606828781   83086.185   1680.637   509.737   127.434   382.302   328.015   248.497   -509.524
13347853098   95549.112   1834.048   483.710   120.927   362.782   303.649   235.808   -745.332
13347853098   95549.112   2001.827   527.959   131.990   395.970   323.111   257.380   -1002.712
15350031063   109881.479   2157.143   494.715   123.679   371.036   294.974   241.173   -1243.886
17652535722   126363.701   2322.413   463.146   115.786   347.359   268.856   225.784   -1469.669
17652535722   126363.701   2473.292   493.235   123.309   369.926   278.554   240.452   -1710.121
20300416080   145318.256   2610.811   452.747   113.187   339.560   248.558   220.714   -1930.836
20300416080   145318.256   2753.290   477.455   119.364   358.091   254.603   232.759   -2163.595

Realistic case.
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   353.154   39.239   967.761
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   299.925   221.788   745.973
11606828781   83086.185   1680.637   509.737   127.434   382.302   328.015   248.497   497.476
13347853098   95549.112   1834.048   483.710   120.927   362.782   303.649   235.808   261.668
13347853098   95549.112   2001.827   527.959   131.990   395.970   323.111   257.380   4.288
15350031063   109881.479   2157.143   494.715   123.679   371.036   294.974   241.173   -236.886
17652535722   126363.701   2322.413   463.146   115.786   347.359   268.856   225.784   -462.669
17652535722   126363.701   2473.292   493.235   123.309   369.926   278.554   240.452   -703.121
20300416080   145318.256   2610.811   452.747   113.187   339.560   248.558   220.714   -923.836
20300416080   145318.256   2753.290   477.455   119.364   358.091   254.603   232.759   -1156.595

Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now.

Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708

Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708

Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708

This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction.

this indicates that the exponential increase is reducing in magnitude

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png


currently difficulty is doubling every ~2 months


3760BTC for 1Ph/s is going to take 66days to pay itself off, but with the pre-existing hardware it will take 44 days


assuming its entirely paid for with the IPO, after may 31st you are going to be seeing:


what is 160.44BTC gona buy in june?
42670Gh/s if Gh/s price and btc value stay the same

how fast can we double our hashrate with reinvestment's?
6 months

I expect we will be able to cut that doubling time to 2month once bitcoin regains value, and further reduce it as hardware increases reaches a choke-point and bitcoin doubling time lowers to 3 months

exponential projections with 3 variable factors($/BTC, $/Gh/s, Diff) is impossible to make with even 10% certainty.

EDIT:

NICE, didn't know reinvestment's will be higher for while
renders everything i wrote completely incorrect, but the point remains, and even better so, that PETA is setup to win

I went ahead and did some estimations based off of an average difficulty rise being around 14-15%, 14 day target difficulty adjustment period, 35% reinvestment, 2 week delivery time of new Bitfury miners from reinvestment funds used every week. This is of course reliant upon if we reinvest 35% into Bitfury BF3500 miners every week and each runs at a consistent 3.5th/s. My other predictions earlier were too optimistic and didn't account for difficulty adjustment or reinvestment which I now added in to the calculation.

Worst case scenario 0 shares sold during IPO over 9 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. 10 week dividend total 61.61714213 BTC
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   137.338   255.056   1701.944
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   119.424   221.788   1480.156
11606828781   83086.185   1570.248   476.255   119.064   357.192   125.017   232.175   1247.982
13347853098   95549.112   1631.333   430.246   107.561   322.684   112.939   209.745   1038.237
13347853098   95549.112   1695.279   447.111   111.778   335.333   117.367   217.966   820.271
15350031063   109881.479   1753.047   402.040   100.510   301.530   105.536   195.995   624.276
17652535722   126363.701   1813.080   361.572   90.393   271.179   94.913   176.266   448.009
17652535722   126363.701   1867.061   372.337   93.084   279.253   97.739   181.514   266.495
20300416080   145318.256   1915.609   332.190   83.048   249.143   87.200   161.943   104.552
20300416080   145318.256   1965.602   340.860   85.215   255.645   89.476   166.169   -61.617

Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. 10 week dividends total 2018.617 ~ .02 BTC per share
Difficulty         Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856           1500.000           523.192          130.798   392.394   137.338          255.056   -255.056
11606828781   83086.185           1500.000           454.949          113.737   341.212   119.424          221.788   -476.844
11606828781   83086.185           1570.248           476.255          119.064   357.192   125.017          232.175   -709.018
13347853098   95549.112           1631.333           430.246          107.561   322.684   112.939          209.745   -918.763
13347853098   95549.112           1695.279           447.111          111.778   335.333   117.367          217.966   -1136.729
15350031063   109881.479           1753.047           402.040          100.510   301.530   105.536          195.995   -1332.724
17652535722   126363.701           1813.080           361.572          90.393   271.179   94.913          176.266   -1508.991
17652535722   126363.701           1867.061           372.337          93.084   279.253   97.739          181.514   -1690.505
20300416080   145318.256           1915.609           332.190           83.048   249.143   87.200          161.943   -1852.448
20300416080   145318.256           1965.602           340.860           85.215   255.645   89.476          166.169   -2018.617

1 batch sold realistic projection 4-5 weeks to pay back debt after IPO finished. 10 week dividend total 1011.617 ~ .013 BTC per share total
Difficulty    Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   137.338   255.056   751.944
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   119.424   221.788   530.156
11606828781   83086.185   1570.248   476.255   119.064   357.192   125.017   232.175   297.982
13347853098   95549.112   1631.333   430.246   107.561   322.684   112.939   209.745   88.237
13347853098   95549.112   1695.279   447.111   111.778   335.333   117.367   217.966   -129.729
15350031063   109881.479   1753.047   402.040   100.510   301.530   105.536   195.995   -325.724
17652535722   126363.701   1813.080   361.572   90.393   271.179   94.913   176.266   -501.991
17652535722   126363.701   1867.061   372.337   93.084   279.253   97.739   181.514   -683.505
20300416080   145318.256   1915.609   332.190   83.048   249.143   87.200   161.943   -845.448
20300416080   145318.256   1965.602   340.860   85.215   255.645   89.476   166.169   -1011.617

My 1 year estimate on total coins mined is just under 10,000 BTC unless CryptX can get better miners than the Bitfury BF3500 or some that are cheaper btc/ghs. Or if the Bitcoin price jumps up considerably the reinvestment will be able to purchase many more miners. There are way too many variables for an accurate prediction and as the time frame goes on the less accurate predictions are. That's why I capped out my charts at 10 weeks after IPO even though I've made calculations up to a year out for this mine. This mine is entirely dependent on this upcoming IPO and that is too much of a risk factor for me to take, so I'm out. If the best case scenario happens then I missed out on a good thing but the risk is just too high for me since it's entirely dependent on reinvestment every week.

I stand corrected i should have written "i don't like what (according to cryptx) mikemike was trying to pull off".

I beg your forgiveness for my sloppy writing.  That said, i sold all shares. Can never be too cautious in the year of Karpeles and the N&Bees.

Ok... finished reading all... i'm out for the time being. the place is too stormy and this dividend stop was unconscionable. i don't like what mikemike was trying to pull off but i also don't like to be in a boat whose captain(s) keep changing the rules in double secret probation (where you don't exactly know why or how or when rules change).

If the weather clears again and dividends are established. i'll jump right back in. Good luck have fun. 

Mike, is that you? 

I've not said much previously, but I've unloaded my shares.

Estimates that dividends could repay cryptx's loan by X date are woefully short, because of the huge reinvestment % . Dividends don't resume when sum(dividend+reinvestment)=loan.  Dividends resume when sum(dividend)=loan.  The reinvestment just goes towards growing PETA's hashrate, which directly contributes to cryptx's bottomline.

So, would the attempts to reinvest help to keep up with the difficulty?  Let's just look at ASICMINER, who will produce 100+ PH and dump them onto the network in the next few months.   Let's say network hash rate doesn't grow exponentially.  But instead of PETA's estimate of 6PH per 10 days, it grows by 10PH per 10 days.  

Make a copy of cryptx's spreadsheet at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHgwa0UyTHNEVG1lbDdvN2FMTExvOHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32 and change Col B to add 10PH per interval.  If the first IPO batch sells out, shareholders will only see dividends in Sep.  If the IPO does not sell at all, dividends will be seen in Dec.  All while the mine is steadily growing in hashrate, but absolutely not keeping up with the network.

I've asked various questions of cryptx before, and they were never answered.  My conclusion is that he is not making decisions in the interests of shareholders.

Well this turned sour real quick. If cryptx believe they can deliver with this new IPO without the ridiculous delays we had previously then I'm all for it and staying put. We've had delays in the past and bitmine could not deliver what they had promised so I'm very skeptical about this next batch but I for one will stick around to see what will be produced. It's the risk we take. Even though we have had set backs, we have still received some substantial divs and still trading well above original IPO which all early adopters like myself invested into in the first place. Lets see where the road takes us.