Infact, fuck it. All I'm asking is for them to release realistic projections. Once they do that ill stop. All this involves is changing the difficulty from linear to exponential, which it is. Investors can then make up their own mind. Is that really so much to ask for?
I know it sounds crazy, but that changes everything. Then you should realise that this update is only beneficial to them if you realise how they are making money, and you'll then realise investors will never see a return, and thus, everyone will be left bag holding in a few months when shit hits the fan.
And if anyone tries to argue that difficulty rises are linear I will digitally slap you across this forum.
Please understand, I'm just trying to help the community. They are purposefully misleading you guys and very few people can see it.
I didn't study maths beyond high school, so basically you're saying I'm not in a good position if I'm currently invested in peta?
please elaborate as it would help me, a member of the community. When I think about it, I'm basically one of those guys who bought into neobee and didn't sell anything when it peaked at 0.006... only to sell 6.6BTC worth of shares for 0.15 a little while later. I also bought some peta shares at 0.125, although average is well below.
Basically, despite how I like to imagine, I'm a complete noob investor.
Also, I'm wondering how the IPO will actually sell from tmrw if we are currently trading below and the shares are not getting eaten up? I mean, just because the share price jumped massively last time cryptx made an announcement with regards to a hashrate increase, did the team believe that this time would be the same?
Linear increments are when something goes up by a fixed value. For example, the projections say the hashrate will increase at about +6PH every ten days for the next year.
While what actually happens is the hashrate increases exponentially, this is when it goes up by a fixed percentage every ten days. See below
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyThe difference is huge. If I add 15+ 15 twenty times over I get 300, this is linear
If I add 15 by a percentage of 15 ten time over I get 1636, this is exponential.
This is the point I'm trying to make. They know this. But they are misleading people so they can maximise their own profits. The first few months will be the most profitable, but instead of pumping out dividends then are going to use it to reinvest so they can have more machines, which makes them more money. But because of the exponential difficulty increase, it will cause dividends to plummet. When this happens it he share price will plummet too.
Your basicly giving them money.
Ill post detailed projections later with a fixed reinvestment percentage of 12%, which is extremely conservative if you look at the link above. And you'll realise you'll be lucky to get 20% of your investment back over the next four months, while all this time the share price is going to fall.
My biggest issue is they know this. They know this shit like the back of their hand, but they are trying to fool people who don't know any better. All so they can make money for themselves through the hosting fees.
thanks for the reply. I get the difference between linear and exponential. It's the issues you have with the percentage change in re-invesment that I didn't understand, among other things. It did sound like there was a more complicated conspiracy you had uncovered.
You have explained now so it makes sense. I guess this marks the beginning of another debate about whether difficulty can rise exponentially forever or not.
CLEARLY, the linear projection is misleading, even I know that and do wonder why cryptx includes that sort of low quality projection in the prospectus. Perhaps because it's near impossible to truely guess (a form laziness to be more rigorous?), or perhaps as you say, to make things look better than they actually are.
Forever? No. Of course not. There is a cut off point. But for the next year? Definitely.
A small example as I've been running AM's numbers, they are now one of the smaller manufacturers, they plan to release 10.9M chips onto the network in the next two months, with a total hashing power of 109PH, that's already over double the current network. That's just one manufacturer. Bitfury, Spoons, BFL, hashfast and another couple I can't remember right now off the top of my head are also working on their GEN 3 and GEN 4 chips which should be available within the coming weeks, maybe a month or two. If the hashrate isn't 6x what it is now in three months ill donate 5 BTC to Sean's Outpost. The growth that is coming over the next few months is going to out do any growth we have seen before
And yes, it's to make them look better than they are. These are the months when dividends will start being paid out, and these are the months where the hashrate is greatly underestimated. It's going to cut ROI down by 75% minimum, but they don't want to tell you that, because then who would invest? And if nobody invests, they can't afford to fill their data centre, and if they can't fill their data centre, they can't make money.
It's the same with the reinvestment percentage early on, you'd get a much better ROI as investors if you stuck it at 50/50, but the more machines they can bring online the more money they can funnel into their other company, so they are setting the reinvestment percentage high early on, which helps them achieve their goals but kills ROI in the long term.
And the IPO probably won't sell, even if it does the shareprice is going to come falling down when people realise they were much better off before this update.