Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 208. (Read 565837 times)

I agree on that - will not slow down. But I also think it won't continue to grow at that constant exponential rate (for long run  .

He is correct about you not understanding what exponential growth means. Exponential growth means that the value at some point in time t is equal to initial value * p^t where P is the growth rate. In my case, P is 1.8 (= 80%) and t is the number of months elapsed.

Your post is an example of quadratic growth. Which is a special case when p = 2.


One day ago i said that i don't understand this fund, but now i do. People that invest in this fund are optimistic about the future growth of the difficulty. Given the current historic data, i believe that is a mistake. The google docs document does various calculations with an growth rate of about 25% per month (about 10.1% each difficulty retarget, the current schedue for the next retarget is 20%) without providing any justification of that number. Only time can tell how right or wrong that number is.

I think that both of you do not understand the impact of that statment. The network hashrate is directly linked to the bitcoin price. As long as the bitcoin price keeps rising the way it is, the network hashrate growth will not slow down in the long run.

The statement about payout is true in case for example of a 'mining contract' with constant hash rate. Peta's share is not such case. This exactly is why very effective reinvestment strategy is necessary for long term success. Someone have to mine all those bitcoins whatever the diffculty. The trick is to be 'ahead of the curve'. 

Wow, just wow.

Even in the examples on the website you kindly proffered me there was an exponent <1.

What you seem to be saying is that exponential means 'to the power of 2.' The examples you gave being 2^2=4 and 10^2=100
Secondly you are confusing an exponential function or exponent with exponential growth

Lets go allll the way back to the definition you first gave (but somehow still don't understand).

"Exponential growth occurs when the growth rate of the value of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value"

Does it say 'Exponential growth occurs when the growth rate of the value of a mathematical function is the square of the function's current value'? NO!

What it says is simply that the growth rate is proportional to the current value.

Lets do an example to help you out.
My beans grow at an amazing exponential rate of 50% in length per day. They start off at 10cm.
After day 1 they have grown 5cm. With me so far?
Now here's where it gets exponential, for day 2: instead of adding another 5cm, we use 150% of the current length which is 15cm now, so they grow 7.5cm (not 5cm) and end up at 22.5cm.

That's what exponential growth is. The fact that you use the current value. The actual growth rate itself doesn't matter, it can be ^2 as you seem to be fond of, it can by ^1/2 or ^-3,000, all that matters is that you use the current value in your calculation rather than the original value.

I'm sorry I was a dick about this, but I was simply mirroring your demeanour.

Exponential growth of 20% each period simply means you multiple the previous value by 1.2. We can call it geometric growth if you like to avoid confusion, as opposed to linear growth which is simply adding the same amount of power each week (100 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 20....). For exponential growth you can have a fractional value as the base and still have exponential growth.

Thus if we take current value as 100, the next difficulty would be 1.2 * 100 = 120. The one after that is 1.2 * 120 = 144.

Since order is not important in multiplication we could simply write it as 1.2 * 1.2 * 100 = 144.
We could also use power notation 1.2^2 to get the value after the second adjustment: 1.2^2 * 100 = 144.

Since difficulty has been going up 20% every 12 days we simply need to calculate how many 12 day periods there are between now and the beginning of June. If you look at a calendar you will see there will be 8 difficulty adjustments between now and beginning of June.

1.2^8 = 4.2998

This means that whatever the current difficulty is, it will be roughly 4 times higher after 8 difficulty periods. Since difficulty reflects hash power we will also be at roughly 4 times the current hash rate by the beginning of June. The reciprocal of the result also indicates how much we can expect as a payout in terms of todays value. In this case it is 1/4, which is 25%!!

I agree with you and everyone else in that I hope difficulty will abate sooner rather than later. Lately in terms of hash power that has not been the case as shown in the following graph of real time stats:

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Probably all of us agree that current very quick rise in difficulty is unsustainable in the long run. And if something can't happen then it won't - it's that simple 
We don't have to know what and when exactly will give up but something will and the rise will slowdown - that is practically a certainty.
But first the network will have to absorb all the hardware based on new chips. So substantial rise is still ahead of us.

By the way, interesting if someone receiving Terraminer at the end of June will be able to ROI in btc terms.

Wow, Just wow.
As I posted, exponents are powers of said #.
From google.
a quantity representing the power to which a given number or expression is to be raised, usually expressed as a raised symbol beside the number or expression (e.g., 3 in 2³ = 2 × 2 × 2).

For the network to have grown exponentially from say 2phs  would put it at 4phs, but if you look at the growth history, that didn't happen.
And if it grew exponentially from 10phs it would now be 100phs.

Math is not something that is subjective, defining exponential is not the same as defining the word "is".

This might be easier for you to understand.
http://www.mathsisfun.com/algebra/exponential-growth.html

Cryptyx any update about gear which should be deployed this week?

From announcement:

4 Terra
62 Coincraft Desks

It is more than was started in previous week.

I don't think you understand exponential growth, I mean it's right there in your description.

"Exponential growth occurs when the growth rate of the value of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value"

The 20% that is added each time is not 20% of the original amount, but 20% of the current value.

Sure exponential means 'to the power of' but you can have indices of less than one, or of decimal values. 120% is approximately the same as saying ^1.04

I consider myself more in the pessimist group in that I believe total network difficulty will continue to rise at 20% per 12 days for the next few months due to a similar increase in hash power. I am sure that we all (both pessimists and optimists) can agree on one thing - we all hope the optimists are correct and that hash power will level off sooner rather than later.  

First off, I am not sure people know what exponential actually means. For something to grow exponentially its squaring, IE 2*2=4 4*4=16
For the network to grow exponentially 25phs would become 625phs.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
Exponential growth occurs when the growth rate of the value of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value. Exponential decay occurs in the same way when the growth rate is negative. In the case of a discrete domain of definition with equal intervals it is also called geometric growth or geometric decay (the function values form a geometric progression).

Yes, the average difficulty increase is +-20% every 12days. But you have to look at how ridiculous the #s start to look 4+ months out from where we are. As I have posted before, when we hit 100phs, 20phs need to be brought online in 12 days to keep the 20% average.
Thats equivalent to 20,000 bitmine rigs, or 10,000 terraminers running at full spec. Considering that cointerra capped each round of preorders at about 1000/piece, just think on that for that a minute.

I am not sure how to explain it mathematically, but the larger the # the more you need to have an impact on it.
The only way I can see the current growth rate continuing as is past 150-200phs is if we see an untold # of new foundries stamping out chips and more companies producing hardware.
Or there has been a few companies producing chips/hardware in silence and will eventually flood the market, but those still have to be sold and brought online either via end customers or new datacenters.

I'd say around .0005 too, which would show a yield on havelock of ~25%, right? The thing is how is going to react the market to that %

I'd say nearer .0005
But conservative estimates avoid disappointment eh?

+1

I would expect a div > or = .0002 this week. I always prefer to take a strong conservative expectation.

US senator Joe Manchin calls for bitcoin ban.
http://www.coindesk.com/us-senator-bitcoin-ban-letter-federal-regulators/

If you happen to live in the US please consider signing this:
https://www.change.org/petitions/senator-joe-manchin-don-t-let-the-government-ban-bitcoin

Guys, as it was said many times - please don't speculate here about Peta shares price.

Here is the place for it:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=486598.0

No clue. But if i had a few thousand dollars, i would happily invest it in a fortune 500 company for 2% dividend per year. That is more than my current bank pays. But please don't compare fortune 500 companies to startups with significant risk involved. According to some randomly googled source, 3 out of 4 start-ups fail within a few years.


Yet, the network hashrate has grown by 75% per month over the last year. And i believe that there is no good reason why the growth rate this year will be lower. Remember that others have already done far more extensive research than i have about the network hash rate growth: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/total-hashrate-forecast-q1-q2-2014-community-work-387533

Lets agree to disagree then. People have said this for years, and the current growth is still exponential. And it will continue to do so as long as the bitcoin price keeps growing exponential.

In the short term, i tend agree with you. But in the long term your business model is unsustainable. The growth numbers from the google docs document are far from what we can expect based on historical data.

With this type of behavior I rather suspect network connectivity problem. Though surely would prefer new miners

I strongly believe myself that given the schedule of this mines hashing units to come online, these prices will only be tasty to those of us that bought shares during IPO. In saying that I do not believe that the share price will drop anywhere under 0.1btc so we can all sleep well.. Miners are back up now so no need to stress

In other news, hashing is back to around 40TH/s, hopefully the rest will be back online soon too!