Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 210. (Read 565837 times)

Darkstone2, Google stock is worth $1220 each, do you know how much dividend they pay?

Apple stock is worth $517 each, do you know how much dividend they pay?

Facebook $69, how much in dividends?


Check this: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp


Yeah, and PETA shares are way underpriced!

I do not understand this fund at all, it seems that somebody made a mistake in the math somewhere. there is no way this fund can possibly worth 0.11 btc per share.

Let us walk through the math:
The network hashrate is 28,000 TH/s right now
The network hashrate was 17,500 TH/s exactly 1 month ago ( 1.6x network growth per month )
The network hashrate was  8,800 TH/s exactly 2 months ago ( 3.18x network growth, 80% per month )
The network hashrate was    702 TH/s exactly 6 months ago ( 40x network growth, 85% per month )
The network hashrate was 36 TH/s exactly 1 year ago ( 777x network growth, 75% per month )

For the rest of this post, i will assume that the network hashrate will grow at a constant rate of 80% per month. My reference point will be 1 jan, at which point the network hashrate was 9920 TH/s
Source: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=60days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=1&address=
If you don't believe my 80% number, reference this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/total-hashrate-forecast-q1-q2-2014-community-work-387533 there are many others. One could argue about 60% or 85%, but for the rest of this post i'm just going to assume 80% growth per month.

The following table show the growth of the network hashrate according to my 80% projection. I have also added an column quoting the data from the google docs document from the first post. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidFdzOTk1aXl6cS1zNG1nck5OZjRBeXc&usp=drive_web#gid=0)
Since my data points (the first date of the month) do not fully match with the chosen dates in the google docs document, i pick the closest reference point.

Month |	Projected Network |  hashrate (TH/s)	Network hashrate | @ document	my projection / document
1    (1 januari)	9,920	11,000	0.90
2    (1 februari)	17,856	19,000	0.94
3	32,140	26,500	1.21
4	57,853	36,000	1.61
5	104,136	46,500	2.24
6	187,445	57,000	3.29
7	337,401	69,000	4.89
8	607,322	81,000	7.50
9	1,093,180	97,000	11.27
10	1,967,724	109,000	18.05
11	3,541,903	121,000	29.27
12    (1 december)	6,375,426	133,000	47.94

In my opinion, the projected hashrate in the google docs document seems like a whole load of shit. I'm sorry, but i can't put this nicer than it is. I went over my math multiple times, but i keep ending up at the same answer. There is no way the total network hashrate at december this year can be 'only' 133.000 TH/s. Even according to the most generous projection of 60% network growth per month, a network hashrate of 133,000 TH/s can be expected mid-june.

For the rest of this post, we will be also assuming that 10 blocks will be mined per hour. Totaling 186,000 bitcoins per month for the entire network (31 days per month, assume zero fees). I will be also assuming that the mined bitcoins per month will be equal to (186000 / network hashrate * PETAMINE hashrate).

I believe that all information up to this point has been based on factual data or some numbers close to factual data. This is where it gets a bit shady.

Lets look at some fictive scenario's. Scenario #1 and #2 are far better than PETA-MINE's own forecasts (their website estimates that 250TH/s will be deployed in week 13-15, which is begin april).
Scenario 1: PETAMINE receives 700TH/s tomorow and will have everything up and running at 1 march. I think that this should happen given the current value of 0.11 BTC.
Scenario 2: PETAMINE receives 700TH/s of hashing power on 1 april
Scenario 3: PETAMINE received 700TH/s of hashing power on 1 may

Given scenario 1, PETAMINE will mine 7563 bitcoins in 2014 (not including those mined before the deployment of 700TH/s). Granting a total of 0.094 BTC per share before hosting costs and everything else.
Given scenario 2, PETAMINE will mine 4192 bitcoins in 2014 (not including those mined before the deployment of 700TH/s). Granting a total of 0.052 BTC per share before hosting costs and everything else.
Given scenario 3, PETAMINE will mine 2319 bitcoins in 2014 (not including those mined before the deployment of 700TH/s). Granting a total of 0.029 BTC per share before hosting costs and everything else.
Remember that these calcuations do not include hosting costs. According to the google docs document, the hosting costs over 2014 equal 1997 BTC in the 'old' forecast, and 3636 BTC in the 'new' forecast. So in scenario #3, PETAMINE will probably not make any profit to generate dividends from. In scenario #2, i wouldn't count on it either.

Whoever is investing in this fund is probably in it for the long haul, because i don't see how it can be worth 0.11 btc per share given their current business plan.

And by the way, if i modify your google docs document so that only the network hashrate forecast is changed, your numbers will enter the negatives in about 6 months from now. You should definitely reconsider your network hashrate forecast.

Dividend prediction

Total mined coins: ~60 BTC.

Reinvestment cut: 60x0.65 = 39 BTC

Mine costs (just throwing current total hash rate)

26 TerraMiners: ~2100W x 26 = ~54600W

8 Coincraft Desks:

Total maximum power usage in power-save mode of 80 / 160 / 240 / 320 / 400 W.
Total maximum power usage in turbo mode: 375 / 750 / 1125 / 1500 / 1875 W.



Assuming 750W: ~6000W

Assuming 10 days of hashing with above values.

At $0.45/kWh it should cost something like $6565, currently around 11.42 BTC.

39 - 11.42 = 27.58 BTC

So, first dividend should look something like BTC0,00034187 per share.

Does this sound good? (I'm in bed and really tired right now )

People will bitch about anything. Bitmine opened a second production line solely for cryptx/petamine.
"Normal" customers aren't being delayed their orders because of cryptx

wouldn't be surprised if cryptx keeping the deployment little more lowkey for day or 2 to slow the whinging at bitmine threads. at least till few more units in normal customer hand

That's the 45+ the new hardware that should be arriving this week + earning Thursday and Friday. And its x / 80674 * .65

Just did some back of napkin math. Before the management fee, looks like .00078 per share.
To get there I took the 47.xx from eligius added 16 for Thursday and Friday and did the requesite math. If they bring on more hardware tomorrow it will go back slightly.

45 btc / 80.000 shares * 0,35

How did you calculate?

about 0.0002 btc/share...is that correct?

It's started! And I like this party

GREAT NEWS GUYS!!

it's party time!!

http://media.giphy.com/media/ElSVL0vKk8eUU/giphy.gif

Excellent news ! I'm proud to be belgian  

Now we will be known for having chocolate, waffels and 1% of the Bitcoin network hashing power !

woohoo!

Horray !!!  


Good job Guys !

Just a quick announcement that first dividend will be paid this Friday, Feb 28th.

Havelock is online

i hope you had coins on GOX

They probably had coins with MtGox, so now they are "protecting" the customers.

whew

It didn't. Havelock has technical issues... I assume this database is an old backup.

EDIT: Confirmed:

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