[HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 222.

XliptTit

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Quote from: currencydebt on February 19, 2014, 07:43:27 PM

Quote from: spartan82 on February 19, 2014, 06:52:46 PM

Guys why are you bothering with these calculations when we are hashing at under half a gh/share still at this date? It's nice to see that we are hashing with at least something but have I missed something here? Has anyone addressed the issue of compensation seeing that we are well past mid feb or are we just happy with what we get now?

The 20% insurance sure would improve the forecast

<3

currencydebt

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Quote from: spartan82 on February 19, 2014, 06:52:46 PM

Guys why are you bothering with these calculations when we are hashing at under half a gh/share still at this date? It's nice to see that we are hashing with at least something but have I missed something here? Has anyone addressed the issue of compensation seeing that we are well past mid feb or are we just happy with what we get now?

The 20% insurance sure would improve the forecast

GT3000

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Quote from: spartan82 on February 19, 2014, 06:52:46 PM

Guys why are you bothering with these calculations when we are hashing at under half a gh/share still at this date? It's nice to see that we are hashing with at least something but have I missed something here? Has anyone addressed the issue of compensation seeing that we are well past mid feb or are we just happy with what we get now?

We should give Cryptx an opportunity to round out the week before we start waving pitchforks and torches. They've been as transparent as humanly possible the entire time.

spartan82

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Guys why are you bothering with these calculations when we are hashing at under half a gh/share still at this date? It's nice to see that we are hashing with at least something but have I missed something here? Has anyone addressed the issue of compensation seeing that we are well past mid feb or are we just happy with what we get now?

Elvis Trout

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Quote from: rdyoung on February 19, 2014, 02:47:39 PM

Quote from: BongaManollo on February 19, 2014, 02:41:12 PM

@Cryptx, that's a tactic by rdyoung to get cheap shares.

It didn't work.

Seriously
You think I did this to push shares down? I did this to flex and strengthen my sheet skills, years ago I could program a spreadsheet with my eyes closed, but its been awhile and my skills are a bit rusty. Next time I will make it a private sheet so I can avoid this crap.

If you go back and look at other EPS estimates to get PE ratio, they are close to what I came up with.
And as I have said I don't have enough information to get more accurate.
When I have the time I will try and add a decrease in difficulty jumps over time as well as an increase in usd/BTC.
Looking as longterm as the sheet does, using an average increase of say 10% would provide a more accurate forecast.

NOTE: I never said this spreadsheet was accurate. What it does is help provide a window into what could be.
Instead of looking 1.5 years out, you can see what it will be like in a few months as the difficulty keeps increasing at the current rate.

I don't think you did that, and I found it very useful, so thanks.

MPalokaj

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Quote from: BongaManollo on February 19, 2014, 02:41:12 PM

@Cryptx, that's a tactic by rdyoung to get cheap shares.

It didn't work.

Oh but it did, there is guillable people who sold @0.06 or so :p. Again, wish I had more coins lying around, panicking people are wonderful for buying prices.

cryptx

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Quote from: rdyoung on February 19, 2014, 02:51:50 PM

I am not sure exactly how to account for the difference in weekly dividends and 12 day adjustments, I could go daily, but that would make the spreadsheet huge.

Just use the same timeframe for the dividend payouts and the difficulty increases. This paints the most clear and reliable picture.

Quote from: rdyoung on February 19, 2014, 02:51:50 PM

I did this on this spreadsheet because to be honest yours was/is a bit out of whack as well.

In which sense? Difficulty is almost spot on.

Quote from: rdyoung on February 19, 2014, 02:51:50 PM

There is no need to calculate your % of the total network or the growth of the network when you can calculate what you will be mining.

3 Things are essential to come up with a projection in share price: BTC/USD, hashrate per share and hashrate of the network. I have no clue what you mean.

BongaManollo

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Quote from: rdyoung on February 19, 2014, 02:47:39 PM

Quote from: BongaManollo on February 19, 2014, 02:41:12 PM

@Cryptx, that's a tactic by rdyoung to get cheap shares.

It didn't work.

Seriously
You think I did this to push shares down? I did this to flex and strengthen my sheet skills, years ago I could program a spreadsheet with my eyes closed, but its been awhile and my skills are a bit rusty. Next time I will make it a private sheet so I can avoid this crap.

If you go back and look at other EPS estimates to get PE ratio, they are close to what I came up with.
And as I have said I don't have enough information to get more accurate.
When I have the time I will try and add a decrease in difficulty jumps over time as well as an increase in usd/BTC.
Looking as longterm as the sheet does, using an average increase of say 10% would provide a more accurate forecast.

NOTE: I never said this spreadsheet was accurate. What it does is help provide a window into what could be.
Instead of looking 1.5 years out, you can see what it will be like in a few months as the difficulty keeps increasing at the current rate.

Take it easy, forgot the smile, wasn't that serious

ujka

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I understand. You already said it's a worst worst case scenario.
And a nice exercise to strenghten sheet skills.

rdyoung

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Quote from: cryptx on February 19, 2014, 02:13:35 PM

Quote from: Usman056 on February 19, 2014, 12:40:31 PM

Can anyone confirm the number of shares? also is anyone able to confirm the gh/s per share? according to the data sheet that was posted, it doesn't seem like ROI will happen based on 2447.260BTC/80675share = 0.0303348497 over a year and a half time. But someone forgot to account for the price drop of GH/S over time. if we were to jump on ship with AsicMiner and bulk oder their next gen products at .49-1$ per chip and then contract another company to produce the miner itself, we could come out ahead and make ROI within by july of next year. But i'm not sure what manufacturing units would bring the cost per chip up to.

But on the upside at least we're hashing, its just a matter of investing the right amount.

I realy appreciate the effort of making (altering) a datasheet to come up with a ROI projection.

But i'm afraid these settings makes no sense at all. For instance just look at the difficulty levels Shocked

. They exceed a Terrawatt in power usage...or at 4 cents per kwh a total cost of 350,400,000,000 dollar per year. This means an electricity cost of about 425 times the anual total mining revenue (3600*365*625$)....

EDIT: never use a % in difficulty increase; it's just wrong in so many ways...(20.000.000 TH/s has to be fabricated in 10 days Grin

)

Exactly
But spreadsheets like this are useful to those who expect to get a positive ROI with days/weeks. It reminds them that its not that easy.
If you go back and read what I wrote when I posted the spreadsheet. I am not sure exactly how to account for the difference in weekly dividends and 12 day adjustments, I could go daily, but that would make the spreadsheet huge.

I did this on this spreadsheet because to be honest yours was/is a bit out of whack as well.
There is no need to calculate your % of the total network or the growth of the network when you can calculate what you will be mining.
Yes, you are competing with the other miners but they have nothing to do with how fast you grow out your hardware.

rdyoung

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Activity: 994

Merit: 1000

Quote from: BongaManollo on February 19, 2014, 02:41:12 PM

@Cryptx, that's a tactic by rdyoung to get cheap shares.

It didn't work.

Seriously
You think I did this to push shares down? I did this to flex and strengthen my sheet skills, years ago I could program a spreadsheet with my eyes closed, but its been awhile and my skills are a bit rusty. Next time I will make it a private sheet so I can avoid this crap.

If you go back and look at other EPS estimates to get PE ratio, they are close to what I came up with.
And as I have said I don't have enough information to get more accurate.
When I have the time I will try and add a decrease in difficulty jumps over time as well as an increase in usd/BTC.
Looking as longterm as the sheet does, using an average increase of say 10% would provide a more accurate forecast.

NOTE: I never said this spreadsheet was accurate. What it does is help provide a window into what could be.
Instead of looking 1.5 years out, you can see what it will be like in a few months as the difficulty keeps increasing at the current rate.

BongaManollo

full member

Activity: 237

Merit: 100

@Cryptx, that's a tactic by rdyoung to get cheap shares.

It didn't work.

ujka

hero member

Activity: 630

Merit: 500

That is what you get by blindly applaying 20% increase every retarget period.
Some says that there will be more efficient chips. Ofc there will be, but not by that factor.

cryptx

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Quote from: Usman056 on February 19, 2014, 12:40:31 PM

Can anyone confirm the number of shares? also is anyone able to confirm the gh/s per share? according to the data sheet that was posted, it doesn't seem like ROI will happen based on 2447.260BTC/80675share = 0.0303348497 over a year and a half time. But someone forgot to account for the price drop of GH/S over time. if we were to jump on ship with AsicMiner and bulk oder their next gen products at .49-1$ per chip and then contract another company to produce the miner itself, we could come out ahead and make ROI within by july of next year. But i'm not sure what manufacturing units would bring the cost per chip up to.

But on the upside at least we're hashing, its just a matter of investing the right amount.

I realy appreciate the effort of making (altering) a datasheet to come up with a ROI projection.

But i'm afraid these settings makes no sense at all. For instance just look at the difficulty levels Shocked

. They exceed a Terrawatt in power usage...or at 4 cents per kwh a total cost of 350,400,000,000 dollar per year. This means an electricity cost of about 425 times the anual total mining revenue (3600*365*625$)....

EDIT: never use a % in difficulty increase; it's just wrong in so many ways...(20.000.000 TH/s has to be fabricated in 10 days Grin

)

rdyoung

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Activity: 994

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Usman056 on February 19, 2014, 12:40:31 PM

Can anyone confirm the number of shares? also is anyone able to confirm the gh/s per share? according to the data sheet that was posted, it doesn't seem like ROI will happen based on 2447.260BTC/80675share = 0.0303348497 over a year and a half time. But someone forgot to account for the price drop of GH/S over time. if we were to jump on ship with AsicMiner and bulk oder their next gen products at .49-1$ per chip and then contract another company to produce the miner itself, we could come out ahead and make ROI within by july of next year. But i'm not sure what manufacturing units would bring the cost per chip up to.

But on the upside at least we're hashing, its just a matter of investing the right amount.

I am the one who posted the spreadsheet. I chose to do a fixed # forecast because I have no clue how much the drop in $/GHS is going to be or when. When you are forecasting for investment purposes its smart to be as worst case scenario as you can, you can also forecast for best case scenario, but getting #s for worst case helps keep you grounded and realistic as to the likely outcome.

They are working on software and PCBs to be used with bitmines A1 Chip, which I think at the moment is the smartest move. Yes, AMs chip is cheaper, but its also slower and lacks the overhead to overclock, its also bigger 55nm vs 28nm so you can fit fewer on a board.
Hopefully they wont be "manufacturing" anything, it will hopefully be chips on boards and submersed cooled. This way you can fit a lot more GHS/sqft than you can with the space taken up by u1/u2 housing.

ujka

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The number of outstanding shares is shown on havelock - 80675.
Each share represent 1/80675 of petamine hashrate. Actual hashrate per share will change over time, acording to reinvestment. At the start, each share represents 2.88 GHash/s. Ofc, petamine is not at that speed yet, but we are all hoping to be there. Sometime soon.

That spreadsheet is said to be a very pesimistic projection - btc stays at $600, new hardware at $6/gh, and constant network increase of 20% per retarget period (11 days).

Usman056

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Can anyone confirm the number of shares? also is anyone able to confirm the gh/s per share? according to the data sheet that was posted, it doesn't seem like ROI will happen based on 2447.260BTC/80675share = 0.0303348497 over a year and a half time. But someone forgot to account for the price drop of GH/S over time. if we were to jump on ship with AsicMiner and bulk oder their next gen products at .49-1$ per chip and then contract another company to produce the miner itself, we could come out ahead and make ROI within by july of next year. But i'm not sure what manufacturing units would bring the cost per chip up to.

But on the upside at least we're hashing, its just a matter of investing the right amount.

rdyoung

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Activity: 994

Merit: 1000

Quote from: qwertyqwerty on February 19, 2014, 10:51:10 AM

Quote from: rdyoung on February 19, 2014, 10:36:37 AM

Here is the spreadsheet.
Someone else created, I have simply modded it for the reinvestment.
http://goo.gl/cmkd5u

Good work.You can also consider other external factors unrelated somewhat to performance of the mine. for instance invisible hand of the market decides on a annual yield they are happy with and shareprice roughly correlates with that. as dividend fluctuates, so does shareprice.

AsicMiner right now is down to a shocking ~3.6% yield. who wants to wait 25+ years to recover their savings in a bitcoin mining asset!!! it's totally absolutely crazy when you can earn similar amount with fiat in a high interest savings account. Shareholders of AM anticipate increased dividends soon but even historically it has settled on 20% or so and friedcat talk about single digit returns. If you take things like this into account, the shareprice can be radically different

Also important is sourcing re-investment hardware with bulk deals from other suppliers, potential of own assembly, own optimisations of PCB's, tweaking of re-investment %'s and so on.

All of these are just 'if's though

Thanks
IMO though, peta is starkly different from AM. The dividends from AM used to be based on mining + their market share, now both are just ghosts of the network. Yes, AM is likely to regain some market share from this new batch of 55nm chips.
Petamine on the otherhand is NOT a producer of chips, they will be purchasing from suppliers, and the dividends will be solely based on mining.
If someone who knows could give me an estimated cost for PCBs, we can work that into the cost. although we don't know how many chips they will be packing onto each board.

qwertyqwerty

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Quote from: rdyoung on February 19, 2014, 10:36:37 AM

Here is the spreadsheet.
Someone else created, I have simply modded it for the reinvestment.
http://goo.gl/cmkd5u

Good work.You can also consider other external factors unrelated somewhat to performance of the mine. for instance invisible hand of the market decides on a annual yield they are happy with and shareprice roughly correlates with that. as dividend fluctuates, so does shareprice.

AsicMiner right now is down to a shocking ~3.6% yield. who wants to wait 25+ years to recover their savings in a bitcoin mining asset!!! it's totally absolutely crazy when you can earn similar amount with fiat in a high interest savings account. Shareholders of AM anticipate increased dividends soon but even historically it has settled on 20% or so and friedcat talk about single digit returns. If you take things like this into account, the shareprice can be radically different

Also important is sourcing re-investment hardware with bulk deals from other suppliers, potential of own assembly, own optimisations of PCB's, tweaking of re-investment %'s and so on.

All of these are just 'if's though

rdyoung

legendary

Activity: 994

Merit: 1000

Here is the spreadsheet.
Someone else created, I have simply modded it for the reinvestment.
http://goo.gl/cmkd5u

Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 222. (Read 565837 times)