One more try on possible future valuation. I will use different approach - comparison with peers.
At the beginning I want to say that I had some trouble to find really comparable and publicly listed operations. For example there are several mining operations listed on Havelock - COG, HMF, KCIM - but each of them seems to be different in a meaningful way from Peta. HMF and KCIM are much, much smaller (by a factor of 20-40). In the case of COG it seems that the person who runs it does a lot of things that lead to a loss of credibility - which I hope won't be the case of Peta.
There are, of course, operations of 'hosting' and 'mining contract' type - but these having completely different model do not fix our purpose.
To chose peers I started with the following assumption: Peta has a good chance to be perceived by the market as a high profile operation. So I searched for listed operations with very good opinion.
I also searched for ventures with reinvestment strategy - this eliminates for example Picostocs' 500TH.
Stellar reputation and reinvestment requirements left me with: GMP (Cryptostocks), HMF (Havelock) and KCIM (Havelock). All of them much smaller but having good reputation and similar model.
To quantify this comparison I will use the price of Ghs we pay when buying shares. All ventures wait for new 28nm equipment and expect jump in hash power by March 2014.
Why all three could give a hint of FUTURE valuation of PETA? - 1) all three didn't sell their equipment in November 2013 so they have been paying dividends all the time. Which puts them well into the frame of running operation with reinvestment 2) their reputation is already very well established and the market sees practically no operational risk.
Comparison:
GMP - 0,09btc/Ghs
KCIM - 0,065btc/Ghs
HMF - 0,085btc/Ghs
PETA just after deployment: 240 -340Th, 80675 shares, 2,88-3,45 Ghs/share which leads to a price in the range of 0,185-0,32.
These results don't diverge much from (partial quote):
If we use that yield to be 33% of the share price, that gives 0.27 btc/share
25% -- 0.36 btc/share
And are more optimistic than those (partial quote):
If they base dividends on the 80674 outstanding shares, then the EPS becomes 0.02809btc
Further into the future?
1) Market valuation per Ghs will most probably decline in time (consequence of rising difficulty)
2) Smartness of reinvestment enters in full importance - CryptX's simulations show that Ghs/share could be well above 10 at the end of the year.
Please, don't treat this estimation too seriously. It's just a shot. And there are a lot of IF's
great to see cryptx hard at work in background
