Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 49. (Read 565829 times)

Sirs!

The moonshot has been postponed.
Your ticket stub may be redeemed for a consolatory doughnut.

 

Yeah.  ฿0.02500025.  Heady times.

"Straight back to 0.022 we are heading!"  -yoda

@Puppet:  I'm simply pointing out that the supply/demand feedback loop that usually controls the supply has a huge time lag in it.  The bets that dictate the hashrate increase in the near future were made a long time ago, and no choices made now could significantly change the amount of hashrate going online in the next few month.  That's all.
As far as profitability goes, HashFast's bankruptcy and weird ASICMINER rumors at least hint that it's possible for ASIC makers to lose money.  I don't really know.

You make it sound as if asic vendors would cancel their production if they could. Nothing could be further from the truth, we are still very far away from the point where asic vendors can not produce hardware that has an excellent ROI for them, regardless if thats achieved by selling with huge margins or by mining in their cheap electricity mega farms.

At current BTC price, for most big players, this point wont be reached before the network is on the order of 500-1000PH. Thats where the "pipeline" may become an issue. Right now, its still very much a full throttle race.

The problem's that choice [jumping on the bandwagon] has already been made a long time ago, when chip that will be made within the next quarter were being designed.  These chips are now taped out, NRE paid for, sunk costs sunk, foundry orders and production capacities lined up.
Turning back now is no more of an option than changing your mind at 59th floor.  After jumping out of the 60th floor window.

TL:DR: The power that will add to the hashrate will add to the hashrate no matter what, it's in the pipeline.  ASICs can't be repurposed to do anything other than mine.  They'll be sold, at a loss if need be.  After that they mine as long as there's a penny profit in it.  After that--landfill.

And also:  ฿0.03101000   

HA HA - We definitely do not need another loan. It simply comes down to a question of how low will a SUSTAINABLE yield go before new BTC mining projects decide it is not worth it to hop on the mining bandwagon. Theoretically it will come down to the most efficient chips, mining with the cheapest electricity, and with the most efficient hosting (lowest cost). The only mines that will ultimately be sustainable and profitable will have these factors in their favor.

And if you believe that, would you rather have bitcoins or cryptx shares?

Reality check. These where crypx' projection at the IPO:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHNCdDBqOTV2Zmt6ZW9PbWdvZDV1M3c#gid=0

By his estimate, the network would by this date be at 10PH. In reality its 125-130PH. Are you sure this is the guy you want to give your dividends, ie bitcoins  to to '"re"invest them for you?
Are you sure you want him to buy hashrate with your money so he can charge $2000/TH/year in hosting fees?
THink for a second.

Whats done is done, there is no turning back. All thats left is a bit of dividends for a few more months, and you suggest ensuring even that gets thrown away.

I am fine with short term tanking. I believe what is wrong with BTC miners (shareholders) is they expect unrealistic dividends for a quick buck. We are simply cannibalizing our own project to the point were it will indeed become unsustainable. A 95/5 strategy if successful will provide a sustainable (although much lower weekly dividend).

If 95/5 is not successful, then 99/1 would provide a 2% annual yield. It simply comes down to a question of how low will a SUSTAINABLE yield go before new BTC mining projects decide it is not worth it to hop on the mining bandwagon. Puppet is correct, the hosting fees and electricity costs also come into play in these equations. If the price of Bitcoin goes up it will help in these regards. One analyst I follow called Enky expects to see BTC around $3000 by the end of the year. Search on "Bitcoin Enky" to read his blog.

Just curious, why 95%, why not 99%?  Or 100%?  Or maybe just chip in and send Cryptx the whole loan with a bonus for "lending" it to you

@hephaist0s:  You realize the harder the shares tank, the higher the "return," right?

ROFL.. sure. Assuming difficulty will remain constant from today on.

Wrong. You forget that hosting fees do not drop with difficulty and therefore dividends will drop a lot faster than difficulty grows (and reach zero in just a few months).

0.00142891 dividend received, which at this moment's share price of .03 BTC is a 4.76% return this week, or a 247% return annually.

As long as you are okay with the short term tanking of the price.

By the way, how can we get cryptx involved in this discussion?

Based on the current decline in weekly dividend the loan will indeed be paid off. The network seems to be increasing at about 11% every week on average. This means that every week the dividend will be adjusted by a factor of 0.9 (1/1.11) and also the amount paid to the loan will by adjusted by a factor of 0.9. This gives the following table of projected total available for dividends or repayment each week:

                                     Total
                                     Weekly
                                     Dividend
                                     (50/50)    Remaining Loan/Reinvestment Sum
June 27 110.729 * 0.9 = 99.65    (427.62)
July 4      99.65 * 0.9 = 89.6       (327.97)
July 11    89.6 * 0.9 = 80.7         (238.37)
July 18    80.7 * 0.9 = 72.6         (157.67)
July 25    72.6 * 0.9 = 65.3         (85.07)
Aug   1    65.3 * 0.9 = 58.8         (19.77)
Aug 8      58.9 * 0.9 = 53.0           33.23
Aug 15                        47.6           80.83
Aug 22                        42.8         123.63
Aug 29                        38.6         162.23
Sept  5                        34.7         196.93
Sept  12                      31.2         228.13
Sept  19                      28.1         256.23
Sept  26                      25.3         281.53
Oct     3                       22.7        304.23
Oct   10                       20.5        324.73
Oct   17                       18.4        343.13
Oct   24                       16.6        359.73
Oct   31                       14.9        374.63
Nov    7                       13.4        388.03
Nov  14                       12.1        400.13
Nov  21                       10.9        411.03
Nov  28                         9.8        420.83
Dec    5                         8.8        429.63
Dec  12                         7.9        437.53
Dec  19                         7.1        444.63
Dec  26                         6.4        451.03
Jan    2 2015                 5.7        456.73


Based on the above I believe PETA could indeed be profitable if we simply adjusted the Dividend/Reinvestment ratio to 95/5. That is 95% reinvestment and 5% for dividends. The weekly per-share dividend would immediately drop to 1/10 what it is now, but that would be sustainable indefinitely once the loan is paid off (by July 18 in this new scenario). This basically will enable double the amount for re-investment to build up and we could indeed keep up with network difficultly.

DON'T BE GREEDY PETA SHAREHOLDERS. We need the funds to re-invest and the loan needs to be paid back ASAP.

Personally I own hundreds of shares and would like this project to succeed. If we did adopt a 95/5 strategy this means the weekly dividend should stabilize at around 0.000075 per share sometime near the end of August as we quickly build up re-investment funds. At a price per share of 0.035 this would provide around 10% annual dividends forever as PETA would indeed keep up with difficulty. With this 95/5 strategy, if we more than offset difficulty increases then the dividend would increase naturally in a sustainable manner through our excess capacity resulting in our % of network share increasing through time.

What do others think about this strategy?

Can't dump my shares bc Havelock malfunctioning...says I don't have any shares to sell

Well the vote had a 3rd option - switch to another pool (btcguild, eligius, etc.)

I would assume so, even though Im not seeing much happening here:

http://pool.petamine.co:9332/static/

At least not yet.