Topic: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit) - page 53. (Read 565829 times)

You're right, I forgot to take into account recent diff change, so the result is even worse. Table fixed.

Used to finance the new hardware.

(also, what happened to the mined coins in the two weeks of IPO, May 23rd and May 30th???)

Is there any repository with the shareprice by Dividend date?

All mining operations that pay market price for their hardware, yes. Mining operations that pay marginal production cost, or very close to it, thats quite a different story. Their overall costs per TH are at least 5x lower. Most of those would be quite profitable. But they are not sharing their profits, they are only sharing their costs by selling (overpriced) hardware.



I shared some initial thoughts here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7376002

Havent looked more closely than that yet.

Korb do you think if we re-adjust the div share to be a smaller %, perhaps ~ 10%, it is still to late? Or would we be able to recover with such a strategy in your opinion?

Puppet, feel free to chime in on that as well.

I don't mean to encroach on the question posed to Puppet, but I can answer this from experience.

Yes, developing and maintaining a mining operation is a exactly like a dog chasing its tail. It's a cycle of finding better hardware to temporarily outpace difficulty...which ultimately increases the difficulty...which leads you back to finding more efficient / large quantities of hardware. It doesn't matter how large or how small the farm is, this same cycle will have an effect on all participants in one capacity or another.

This cycle is so vicious that there will be a period of time when only miners with unlimited, free energy will profit.

Heck, it hasn't even been two years since ASICs have been released and we're already pushing into "4th Generation Chips" territory. The product lifecycle we're working with is insane!

Well on a slightly more positive note at least there appears to be quite a bit more Buy structure on havelock for peta.

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seriously, this is an amazing graph, excellent work

this is probably the most important calculator i've ever seen on btc talk

As a technology it makes great sense, miners can extend the life of their hardware and eke more mining roi. Big miners will move to this technology, but do they hold a patent to it. Whats to stop someone doing the same thing, will they start undercutting to meet the competition. Who will bear this cost, public or private money etc etc

 I'm going to take my own advise and pretend in my head to buy some ipo shares, stick the same amount into a btc wallet and come back in 6 months time and see who wins! If I lose I'll buy-in, If I win who knows 

Keep in mind that the profit from mining is taken by the manufacturers. Do you really think that someone would sell you something for less that it's worth? After the miners become no longer profitable (no longer able to achive positive ROI) they release it on the market for huge profits, didn't we saw this time again and again? Mining is no longer decentralized.

Puppet,

I am starting to think that all BTC mining operations are like a dog chasing its tail in terms of turning a profit. Let's assume that difficulty will go up as you say and that PETA will not make a profit. Do you think that all Bitcoin mining operations will also end up in the same situation?

What is your take on DTMA & DTMB? (a couple of other mining funds soon to be offered on Havelock)

Do you foresee them being a success given their 6 month window till deployment?

Dont expect ppl here to check math.



peta will go to the moon even if it requires reinventing arithmetic.

BTW, you how do you get to 337 BTC for this friday? At current difficulty, which has been in effect since last week, 1150TH would yield 300.7 BTC, and some crumbs from namecoins.

Skuser, looks about right



I'm gonna pull back a quote i saw a good while ago, that is starting to make more sense now.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6805563

The ROI for CryptX in all of this is the hosting fee each week, remember folks 70ish BTC/week is around 42k$ or 30k euro/week. lets break this down a bit more

30k euro a week, we are in Belgium so will stick to euro here

I would estimate power/hosting/site services(rack n stack) costs around 60% of that 30k, leaving CryptX a nice 650k paycheck annually(880k$)

A few folks mentioned the bagholders, this is the only benefit i can see to you guys...CryptX's fat stacks

No its full reality for the next ~3 months. If the current network growth keeps up, its gonna be reality for longer, potentially for forever.

But if/when the loan gets paid back and the reinvestment fund starts building up, the light blue line is the reinvestment fund. The best thing that could happen is that it gets paid out as dividend, then it would yield 100%, which I added to get the orange curve.

If it actually gets reinvested, it will fare like ALL previous mining securities throughout all of bitcoin history, including PETA so far,  and yield somewhere between 20 and 50% at a later date. If you want to believe it will yield 200%, be my guest, double the reinvestment fund from 0.004 per share and you get an additional 0.004 btc NAV per share. THat dramatically changes the outlook, doesnt it?  No, it doesnt, its noise. And a fantasy. If something comes along that would yield >100%, there will be opportunities to invest directly in to that, without the petamine debt boatanker attached to it.

BTW, when looking at that particular chart, try not to forget the absurdity of the network gwroth assumption its based on . Its a ridiculous best case scenario and already completely out of date by now:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   17,358,835,633 (+28.94%)

The difficulty after that will be far more than +7% even if not a single new miner gets deployed.

As you can read in Cryptx updates, all income supposed for reinvestment is used for paying back the loan. I did some homework and it seems that if the difficulty grows 30% next time, 20% in following 2-3 periods and after that slows down back to 15% the loan will be never paid back because all the income starting September will be eaten by hosting costs. The difficulty growth is disastrous for this project.

I will be glad if you can fix errors in my table, but this is how it looks like to me:

The Genesis Block can't keep up with the speed increase.
I've manually updated the chart 4 U.



ur welcome.

Putting accusations to the side, I still disagree with his modelling.

Where is the reinvestment in his model?



He says, "No reinvestment..." which is out of step with reality to begin with! He models reinvestment REVENUE, but not the beneficial effect of SPENDING that fund.

Don't be fooled, Puppet has his own agenda, he is not wasting is time here out of good will trying to prevent people from losing their money...

+1