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Topic: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ - page 3. (Read 2611 times)

legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
Glad to see you understood how platform works Grin
A bit of Extra Stop to survive the stop hunting and a fixed Max Risk. Then you let it do its thing while you drink.  Grin

2 of the 3 loss you had with Aethon would have turned into big wins with at least 10% Extra Stop.

Your whole premise was supposed to be "passive income", remember? Now you come back to say "if you woulda done something other than what the bot said to do, you would have had big wins." How is that "passive," and how does it help your clients? If HCP didn't do what the correct thing to do was, why would you make that an option? I know... I'm basically asking you why would you recommend people not use the bot's default settings, LOL.

In your last post from your thread, in December, you wrote that the only reason people wouldn't join is if they hated free bitcoin. Turns out the reality is people should only join if they hate their bitcoin.

HCP isn't the only one. This guy got rekt by Atheon... was he using it wrong too?

copper member
Activity: 686
Merit: 39
Approximately one month on from my last update and the bot has pretty much recovered from the previous loss... so, that's something:




Took just shy of 2 months to recover that one (loss was around the 24th May)... Still 0.01286123BTC down (~34%) from when I started on "The Platform"™ (and ~0.075BTC down (~75%) on my original 0.1BTC "investment"!)


I shall ignore the account some more and see what it looks like in another month or so when I remember about it after one too many beers Wink Tongue

Glad to see you understood how platform works Grin
A bit of Extra Stop to survive the stop hunting and a fixed Max Risk. Then you let it do its thing while you drink.  Grin

2 of the 3 loss you had with Aethon would have turned into big wins with at least 10% Extra Stop.

The reality is , leverage trading is a stop hunting game, while the AI finds the algorithmic stop, you DON'T have to share the same stop with it and other users.
As you have seen, when Bots lose, they lose by few dollars because whales know how these algorithms work and they try to fill with the stops , then proceed doing the trade.
That's why losses of AI are cyclical, when an algo has big liquidity because coming from a winning strike, it becomes a target.

Please consider splitting your capital between Manticore and the upcoming Kamaitachi bot, which fills with stops together with Arthur(CEO of Bitmex and great manipulator)  Kiss
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
Approximately one month on from my last update and the bot has pretty much recovered from the previous loss... so, that's something:




Took just shy of 2 months to recover that one (loss was around the 24th May)... Still 0.01286123BTC down (~34%) from when I started on "The Platform"™ (and ~0.075BTC down (~75%) on my original 0.1BTC "investment"!)


I shall ignore the account some more and see what it looks like in another month or so when I remember about it after one too many beers Wink Tongue
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
The graph looks like what happens if you place many bets at 1.1x payout.
Looks familiar...


That's from April 4th to June 17th


@HCP did you ever pull the plug or did you go down with the ship?
Still sitting on the deck playing music as the Titantic sinks... Tongue

To be honest, I kinda got caught up with "Real Life"™ and haven't been paying too much attention to it... I figure I'll log in one day and the balance will be below the minimum required for the bot to work... which is 0.011BTC
legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
the bots keep making a bunch of small winning trades followed by a clock-cleaning losing trade
The graph looks like what happens if you place many bets at 1.1x payout.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
Just for fun (well, half boredom and half morbid curiosity), I decided to check in on the BotHive telegram group to see the latest. Would you be surprised if I told you that absolutely nothing had changed, at all? Because that's what happened: nothing changed.

Everybody is sitting at a bigger loss than ever before, the bots keep making a bunch of small winning trades followed by a clock-cleaning losing trade, and Gabriel is still boasting about having a 95% win rate while blowing everyone's minds about how awesome the "next" bot is going to be.

Some people complain and the most brainwashed of his supporters just laugh off the losses, sure that someday they will somehow recover their losses. Nobody has a profit.

This guy's performance chart ends on 5-27:


This one ends on 6-16:


@HCP did you ever pull the plug or did you go down with the ship?
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
I am curious if you can look at your trading history, and what happened in the market at the time to determine what caused the massive, sudden losses.
Did something happen the bot did not expect, that is so unusual that it is unlikely to ever happen again? Or did the bot simply make a bet in the wrong direction and the market turned against you?
The full trading history is available, as this still works via my BitMEX account and API keys... so I can see all the order/trade history...

However, I honestly have no idea about most of this stuff. People start talking about signals, bands, breakouts, shakeouts, candles etc and my eyes start to roll back in my head Tongue So, I'm sure someone might be able to analyse it all and see what actually happened.

I do know that in one of the previous losses (ie. with Arakne), the bot went full retard and in the middle of a bunch of trades, it started a new trade cycle, and put in a bunch of new orders, even tho it was actually within $100 of the previous cycles stop limit... unsurprisingly, the limit hit and a full exit was made and 30% of the balance got wiped.

This latest episode, I have no idea... I missed the entire thing as I had set it going and just forgot about it.

Apparently, I wasn't using the bot properly. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
copper member
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1901
Amazon Prime Member #7
Well... my "passive" investment has been REKT while I wasn't watching... AGAIN:
[ing ]https://i.imgur.com/S57MqQD.png[/img]


Another full 30% loss... apparently both the bots got hit. <>


I am curious if you can look at your trading history, and what happened in the market at the time to determine what caused the massive, sudden losses.

Did something happen the bot did not expect, that is so unusual that it is unlikely to ever happen again? Or did the bot simply make a bet in the wrong direction and the market turned against you?

Based on the response from CryptoSparks, I don't have a lot of confidence in his product.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 3684
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
Returning here after a hiatus, curious, and well, can't say we didn't expect this outcome eh HCP? Actually, 30% loss isn't so bad, given that you've just put your money into some bot you sorta kinda knew would lose you money. How many ways to define a gambler right?Wink

[quote author=CryptoSparks link=topic=5206137.msg54341096#msg543
There’s only 1 correct timing for capital increase, and is after a loss. But I do understand that human psychology tends to do the opposite.
[/quote]

This was almost sort of explanation given to be by someone to describe how stock markets right now continue to put new ATHs when every other economic indicator is screaming to do otherwise. I thought it was illogical but apparently, it's logical that human nature says: this is the time to put money in, even though the writing's on the wall. So when people should be pulling out equity, they're following the price, not the data.
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
With that said, you are using the platform wrong in the following ways:
No... I'm using the platform in the way it was explained to me... ie. it wasn't explained at all... in fact, until the bot decided to wipe another 30% off my bankroll no one even mentioned the concept of "extra stop" and that this is the "recommended" setting. If it's recommended, why isn't it part of the default setup? Huh

I was told "just leave it as it is, otherwise you're 'forking the AI trade'"... The whole purpose of this experiment was to test the robustness of the bot and it's "AI" without needing to set anything other than API keys... and the claims that you could just put money in, turn the bot and let it run... now you're saying that it needs to be setup and configured properly by the end user. Roll Eyes

Timing? LOL... so what... now I'm supposed to just sit here and magically know exactly when to switch the bot on and off? Huh

I'll continue posting my 30% losses until my balance is gone "results"... but I very much doubt I'll see anything in the way of gains. Undecided
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
bots will basically be trading without stops and without the possibility to ever lose

It looks like you haven't learned anything. Same blind bragging even after you've been proven wrong so many times.

Your bots lost money for your customers. Now you're blaming the customers for not using the bots correctly. You should set it up correctly to begin with since you're the one making the outlandish claims and charging fees for it. But it's quite obvious that you have no winning "strategy" and you're just obfuscating your nonsense with useless mumbling (see above - as if someone is forcing your bots to use leverage or stops... set it up to trade without using leverage or stops if that prevents "the possibility to ever lose"). Ludicrous.

But from a statistical point of view, after a loss is the best time to either enter a bot, increase leverage or increase capital.

That's just gambler's fallacy. Goes well with the doubling-down (basically martingale) trades that killed your other bot.
copper member
Activity: 686
Merit: 39
Hello, thanks for trying the BotHIVE.io Beta and our vision for plug and play algorithmic trading without ANY entry barrier. No server costs, No entry fees. No big bankroll required.

I will not start another thread war because that kills productivity , but I would like to just clear out some points that in my opinion can be easily misunderstood   .


Platform’s goal is to provide synthetic asset diversification while accumulating highly volatile assets as bitcoin. The idea behind it is to split a Bitcoin trading portfolio and assign a percentage of it to different algorithms that specifically trade different market patterns with the support of constant AI optimisation via genetic algorithms that simulate the natural selection.

This means that after every trade the backtest engine runs again the genetic optimisation trying to learn from what just happened. Not only to avoid liquidity traps but also maximise gains. Then it compares the thousands of different settings generated to see what not only performed well in the past but is also outperforming similar configurations in the present. If new configuration is found, is automatically distributed to all running bots in order to always run with most profitable configuration and backtest charts are updated. The frequency of this event it depends on market itself. We saw shifts in configuration even after a winning trade. Last shift happened after the 6.9k breakout.

Is clearly written that charts are backtests based on current ai optimization and we never claimed anything other than accuracy between engine results and real life ones. This accuracy is easily verifiable because our telegram group with 100 real users is OPEN and trades results are always posted and commented.

 With Arakne on bitcointalk we had READ ONLY API KEY enabled, everyone could have accessed the trade history, there were 6 months of 100% win ratio and over 60% net profit before the shakeouts started happening. And yet that wasn't enough either, and i passed 6 months fighting daily with the same users that happily contaminate this thread now. I must say i had some real fun  Grin  Anyway point is, no matter what we provide, it will never be enough.

With that said, you are using the platform wrong in the following ways:

1. Running only 1 bot
The weaker one with basically 0 synthetic asset diversification. Takes about 2 months for the market maker to recover a max loss (put aside you didn’t deleverage after the loss) while only 2 weeks for Manticore which is a breakout bot. Of course these are averaged estimates based on last 16 months. It really depends on market conditions.

2. Not using any extra stop from start.
Currently we are using leverage, is a stop hunting game especially on Crypto. 20% extra stop would have turned 4 out of the 6 max losses suffered since August 2019 in HUGE wins. We have very high win ratio but until we bring support for no-leverage exchanges, 100% win ratio Is simply impossible to achieve. With no-leverage API Keys support, you can trigger a NO-LOSS setting and bots will basically be trading without stops and without the possibility to ever lose. You can get trapped periodically when the “original” algo stop gets hit but that’s why we diversificate among several algorithms.  That is the only way to achieve 100% win ratio.

3. Deleveraged after the loss.
You correctly set up an extra stop now but you did that after losing without it. Extra stop acts as a deleverage, together with the Max Risk setting, builds up your money management and represents how conservative you are as trader. But from a statistical point of view, after a loss is the best time to either enter a bot, increase leverage or increase capital. The worst things you can do after a loss is : leave a bot and/or wait for it to be in a winning series before joining again, deleverage , decrease capital.

4. TIMING
In the markets as in life, timing is important.
You do the right thing with wrong timing ? You lose now but win later
You do the wrong thing with right timing? You win now but lose later
You do the right thing with right timing ? You will always win.

That’s a bit silly , but is true. Market psychology applies in the same way but on smaller scale on BotHive’s building ecosystem. We release on a free to try model tools to profit passively but how you use such tools has a big impact on final results. The timing required to profit with BotHive is way less than the constant one required to profit alone on your own in the market. Especially on Bitmex where the frontend is basically LOCKED for “system overload” letting only bots trade in the most critical moments. See how this “feature” is there only to mess with your timing ? On Bothive you don’t need to worry about any of this. Only get the timing of joining a bot right.

For example, 4 weeks ago we launched beta, Manticore did almost +50% first 2 weeks at 32% max risk, then the loss showing in your charts hit, taking away most profits generated. So the users joining manticore from start are still in profit, but users joining manticore right before the loss,  are not. Same code, same architecture, different results for different users. What changes? TIMING. Your money management must be there to mitigate this effect.

But we can go even more in depth, what about users that tried the bot for 2 weeks, saw +50% and 10x their bankroll right before the loss? Same concept. Bad timing in increase of capital.  I don’t really like quoting Buffett but he’s absolutely right saying
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
There’s only 1 correct timing for capital increase, and is after a loss. But I do understand that human psychology tends to do the opposite.


Conclusion


Now that our architecture is up and running, we will keep on releasing for free and to the mass, the most influential algorithms that control the markets.
As of now we are still in beta, a lot of work to do , and with only 2 bots available the synthetic asset diversification offered is not enough.  But, no matter the FUD and how well you rank it, BotHIVE.io will keep on developing its technology that besides bringing passive income to its users also helps maturing the bitcoin market making manipulations harder to complete simply because we provide increase in liquidity.


I will not further contaminate this experiment , but I hope you will follow the above advices in order to properly profit from the platform, especially the first one!
Synthetic Differentiation is the point of the platform.
Look at the difference between Aethon's wins and Manticore's ones.

For further support our group is still open and a space of free talk:

https://t.me/BotHive
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1427
I'm kinda hoping (probably because I'm overly optimistic), that once the bot has actually been running 3-6 months (if it makes it that long before the whole show goes up in flames), that'll he publish more realistic charts based on actual historical performance... instead of a bot that was created to fit back test data.

I'm not holding my breath tho... Undecided
That should be the standard before even starting one imo, either that, or it has to be a really, really trustworthy person running the bot (even then though, i'm still not too fond of these "Automatic profit"-esque bots).

I did however like the concept that ARAKNE had about giving realtime read-only access to api keys. (although the data they gave really didn't support ARAKNE's case, imo, and it looks like that has been somewhat demonstrated now..)

If only it was a trustworthy person with perhaps a background in machine learning with an actual business case / plan that he can explain in lay-man terms w/ similar (but in this case real) evidence to support his case, i'd be willing to hear him out.

(Using hidden markov models for example)
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
Yeah... I'm still not a fan of this "back test" business... sure, I understand you want to be able to show your product in the best light... but just whacking up an exponential ROI graph with some minor hiccups and advertising a ludicrous 5000% ROI is a bit ridiculous.

I'm kinda hoping (probably because I'm overly optimistic), that once the bot has actually been running 3-6 months (if it makes it that long before the whole show goes up in flames), that'll he publish more realistic charts based on actual historical performance... instead of a bot that was created to fit back test data.

I'm not holding my breath tho... Undecided
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
Might switch my strategy on this and try the "High Risk, High Reward" bot... see if it can make back some of it... I'm sure this is "typical" gambler behaviour... take bigger and bigger risks the more you lose! Wink

Hey, might as well...

I just didn't care for the way he advertises things: changing the data he makes his presentations with to fit what "the new bot would have done" instead of "what it actually did." But at least he's not doing it here anymore.
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
Did this happen while Bitcoin was mooning to 9k+? Wonder boy shorting BTC again and blaming evil anti-bot conspiracy?
Nah... it was like a week ago. I just had not checked on the bot until I saw a thread in B&H asking about "Trading Bots"... and I thought it would be a good time to check mine... I was wrong! Undecided

Might switch my strategy on this and try the "High Risk, High Reward" bot... see if it can make back some of it... I'm sure this is "typical" gambler behaviour... take bigger and bigger risks the more you lose! Wink


NOTE: Just to clear up any doubt... I know it's fundamentally broken and I'm never getting my money back... I'm just a believer in that age old motto "If you're going to fail, fail spectacularly!" Tongue
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
Well... my "passive" investment has been REKT while I wasn't watching... AGAIN:

Did this happen while Bitcoin was mooning to 9k+? Wonder boy shorting BTC again and blaming evil anti-bot conspiracy?

I'm with LoyceV on this one, gambling in a proper gambling establishment would make more sense, as much as we appreciate the trainwreck show here.
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
why are you still in this? Shocked
If nothing else... hopefully someone googling/researching about "BotHIVE.io" might stumble on this thread.

Apparently, this thread is top result for "BotHive.io bitcointalk":


If it only helps stop one person from losing some money... I'd consider that it was all worth it.



You can still do this:
After reading this topic, I think putting your remaining 0.06 BTC all on black (or red, up to you) gives you a better chance at "earning" back your losses than continuing this.
I think I'd need to hit up the 6-lines or corner bets instead of the 50-50 outside bets to recoup my losses now Tongue

legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
It's almost as if you enjoy seeing your money disappear now, why are you still in this? Shocked

You can still do this:
After reading this topic, I think putting your remaining 0.06 BTC all on black (or red, up to you) gives you a better chance at "earning" back your losses than continuing this.
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
Well... my "passive" investment has been REKT while I wasn't watching... AGAIN:



Another full 30% loss... apparently both the bots got hit. On the bright side... because my bot is now negative ROI, I get a discount on the fees! YAY... only paying ~19% commission now Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

A few users in the Telegram spat the dummy about it all... and apparently it's advisable to set an "Extra Stop" at around 20-30% to help stop these "shakeouts" from killing the bots... not sure why that isn't just included in the Bot AI automatically, but there you go. I've now set my "Extra Stop" to 25%... it had the result of lowering the expected ROI from 17% to 15%... Roll Eyes


Apparently the Beta was actually delayed to implement this feature... again, not sure why that wasn't really mentioned right at the start Roll Eyes


Anyway, given that Trade History graph... feeling pretty confident I'm not even gonna make it back to "break even" any time soon... let alone 15% Tongue Undecided Roll Eyes

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