Topic: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ - page 6. (Read 2562 times)

their were FOUR different outcomes which was apparently dependent on what VPS your bot was running on??!? So, some users ended up with a 1% win... some users got hammered for a 30% loss... and a couple of results inbetween.

I understand what you guys are saying... and the "obvious" thing to do at this point is cut and run... but then, the "obvious" thing would have been to NOT put any money into this in the first place!

Which is kind of the entire point of this little experiment. Hopefully, by having an independent user actually participating and providing "real" data and not blowing smoke about "algorithms", "machine learning" and backtests using ridiculous bankrolls and fancy graphs... everyone will be able to see past the "marketing" and see exactly what this service is and what it is doing.

And now... I'm just kinda morbidly curious as to what is going to happen next... it's a bit like a slow motion trainwreck... I find it fascinating and can't (don't want to?) stop watching!  

Moreover, I believe that he is trying to improve his bot, it is beneficial for him, once the bot works effectively, his income will increase certainly many times. But first, think of another reason for him to start this service. You and others are becoming experiments for him, every time the bot fails, you lose money, and he loses nothing. Maybe I'm wrong, but you're spending your money just to experiment for him, and after you, so do many others.    Just a sincere opinion of me, hope you do not waste your money, although I know you have your purpose

Just to clarify... he doesn't actually get the $10 month for the VPS... I paid that directly to the VPS provider... whether or not he is getting any referral commission on those VPS accounts, I don't know. So essentially, the only income he gets is if the bot wins.

Update: now imagine someone pays you $10 per month to gamble with their money, and if you win, you get to keep 30%, but if you lose, the loss is all theirs That's a terrible deal, unless you're the one who came up with it.

NOTE: CryptoSparks has announced that all users will get next months VPS "free" due to the large amount of maintenance this month and no active trading etc.

Even tough the new Arakne will start on a new public trading journey, i will also let it manage the previous one account that after peaking at +57% is now down at -18% to demonstrate how recovery is not only possible but an inevitable consequence of proper risk management over long periods of time.

A lot of users have pulled their funds and cancelled their API keys etc to cut their losses etc... and the bot is currently in "maintenance". But, I promised I was going to see this through (and I pretty much wrote my 0.1BTC off the moment I deposited it anyway ), so my 0.06071360 BTC shall stay there, API keys are still active and we'll see how it all plays out.

I figure I may as well just ride it out until either all my money is gone (or maybe one more big loss? )... or I get back to 0.1 BTC. At this stage, I'm fairly confident that I know which one of those things is going to occur first

Seriously tho, I put the money in figuring it would probably be lost... I wanted to risk my money so others wouldn't need to and could get a reasonably independent and honest assessment of what the bot was actually doing (without the ludicrous claims of ROI based on backtests and imaginary bankrolls).

I figure I may as well just ride it out until either all my money is gone (or maybe one more big loss? )... or I get back to 0.1 BTC. At this stage, I'm fairly confident that I know which one of those things is going to occur first

what WAS a bad thing however, was the bot deciding that it needed to go "full retard" and launched into massive 25x leverage trade within $70 of the previous stop loss that was still active!!?!

So this test has paused with a loss -39,29% and another test ended with 39,10%. Obviously this is a bad outcome for anyone and what you and others get is just a free VPS next month 

Arakne is in maintenance , will be back online on the next hours

But why haven't you stopped while others have withdrawn, canceled the API key, etc . At least the result is that this bot is not reliable, you can lose the remaining money if you continue to operate with it.

Who knows? Maybe I'll claw back my losses before next Christmas!  

Any update on this HCP?

guigui371 was also running the same experiment. It seems he had a similar period of inactivity before the bot woke up again on Christmas Eve and made another poor trade for another large loss. I assume you have therefore suffered similar losses.

Hello people, looks like we got an ugly Christmas gift but still an interesting one. It took me a while to read all logs of all bots so here is what happened.


After closing 3 exits in the 7.5k-7.6k area with +1% profit, some users suffered total and then partial VPS slowdowns caused by attacks on vps provider’s servers, that made them take a separate road. A missing entry fill allowed some users to close this trade in just a few minutes and go in stasis with full profit. Others got that extra fill but delay in placing exit caused a missing exit and stayed in the trade with extra risk. Remember that Arakne’s trade ends when last contract is dropped, so a missed fill, may that be an entry or an exit, can influence the final outcome.


Anyway price collapses and we get stuck in a low risk (1%-2%) long at 7.5k. But our stop holds the bart until detected support formation and breakout from it at 7.3k which Arakne bought and averaged down our entry from 7.5 to 7.3 so we could have exited on the 7.4k impulse. Problem was that when entries were added, stop was still considered strong so no update was needed. When the stop algorithm detected possible shakeout, we were already filled at max risk capacity and attempts to edit the stop in a safe zone failed.

The shakeout got our stop for 20$ right before starting the 7.4k “scheduled” impulse that triggered our strong adds. OUCH!


 YES, Arakne uses some martingale mechanics, but in a controlled way to average the entry and avoid getting trapped in a trade. That’s actually common among marketmakers, and whatever you like it or not you can have FULL CONTROL on the risk. Long term users may have noticed how Arakne’s avg entry is always a key level in the market range, it simply how markets work. That’s why Arakne starts with leverage BELLOW 1 and reaches max 25 out of 100. We rarely go above 8, but being able to reach 25 is like having always one last ace to play when trapped in a trade. This time Arakne failed in playing it well, because indeed needed to add to position but also to increase stop size.


 NO, is just not true that Arakne makes only small wins. For example the day before the first loss we had a +15%.

 NO, is just not true that Arakne only makes big losses. Here the loss list of current version since 2018:

0  -1.0239223164147369
1  -7.770849221211668
2  -6.0998134976693805
3  -1.9440504813533817
4  -2.915077465267908
5  -4.060302922521566
6  -1.7726049435660876
7  -3.7430129787980335
8  -14.309137251004552
9  -6.345744077310631
10  -0.009555729922808811
11  -1.652253475973144
12  -1.8721211623094127
13  -1.9481837015325076
14  -8.124456834850443
15  -23.46791646786238

 THE PROBLEM with last trade is how savagely she went in buying 7.3 without FIRST updating the stop at 7238 and taking that extra life space mandatory after surviving Bitcoin dipping. The shit happened for a combination of factors such as:
- strong long breakout detected with several supports to buy but at relatively small spread from each other .
- small spread from stop
- big spread from entry
- several algos approving the call

result is that risk was prioritised in averaging down the entry FIRST at all costs. How algorithms gets their priority is highly based on settings managed by machine learning. So i understand you guys are mad because she went crazy near the stop, but the function to increase stop size was there, if she chose not to use it means that statistically in the past that move worked. When shakeout alarm triggered it was already too late and got stuck in that stop. So we are talking about a missing logic part. She needs a way to increase stop when maxed out or the flow stops there, in another and more dangerous trap!

Anyway Stop gets triggered by 20$ right before the impulse’s start to 7.4 that Arakne was expecting as our best chance for exiting the trade . And with the trade setup she was doing, the win would have been absolutely massive(above 30%). DOUBLE OUCH!

---

The point of failure was that the probable shakeout signal triggered right after we hit max fill capacity, at that point she couldn’t put more risk on the table by moving the stop further.


Getting shakedout is something we cannot ever RISK. So this scenario showed that we need an EMERGENCY TRAILING STOP algorithm that manages this risky situation where we needed to add in order to exit the trap but ALSO we urgently need to increase stop size without risking over the max drawdown allowed to avoid the shakeout. That is already being done by Arakne but with some mathematical limitations. Some fixes to the MM algorithm will make sure that in a way or another, we will 100% of times have the possibility to safely get some ‘survival space’ when is needed. There are different ways to achieve that, for example dropping some levels at loss and use that risk for increasing the stop and dynamically keep it at safety distance or “save some risk” for emergencies.
  

And for the ones that say that i adjust graphs, look how the backtest engine shows the same loss. I bet that if a loss similar would have already happened in the 2 year of data analysed , the machine learning optimisation would have differed and so the trade result. Is about teaching the algorithms but without giving them too much freedom.


WHAT NOW?

Our vision is to make algorithmic trading accessible to everyone, and a couple losses will not prevent us from delivering the final goal, especially since both losses made the products better.

You are free to leave and yell scam after a loss, but we are here to stay, this is just the beginning.

We care about our users because our business model cannot succeed if users don’t succeed. That’s why most competitors ask for high entry fee while we will be a free to try SaaS. To further reward our early adopters, both losses that hit Arakne in december will be transformed in credit on our platform since day 1.

Just register and send us your nickname in private to receive the credit, then connect different Bitmex accounts via API and spread the capital among all bots based on their risk indicator! With that free credit you will be able to safely recover and start grinding profit again.

As for now you are 100% in one bot, as in any investment, differentiation is the key. Even though you have seen Arakne keeping 100% win rate for 3 months, trading is not about always winning but about managing risk properly over a long period of time. Last trade clearly showed a point of weakness in Arakne’s risk control that absolutely needs to be patched, that’s why i immediately put it in maintenance.



 Stay tuned for updates on launch date, meanwhile Arakne will get updated and be back running on your accounts in the next days, so no action is required until platform launch.

Lastly I understand that losing this way is frustrating , but have some consistency. ZakZak just a couple weeks ago you sent me a beautiful message full of thanks and stuff like that, now Im not only a scammer but also the bot doesn’t exits ?

Even tough the new Arakne will start on a new public trading journey, i will also let it manage the previous one account that after peaking at +57% is now down at -18% to demonstrate how recovery is not only possible but an inevitable consequence of proper risk management over long periods of time.

"All quiet on the western front"...

Since the big loss... there has been no trading.
[img width=600 ]https://i.imgur.com/F8gIgRC.png[/img]


That's pretty much 2 weeks of no activity now.

If the bot person would refund 30% on losses - that would be a decent incentive. Otherwise he doesn't risk anything. And he certainly doesn't care about customer relations, so you can't say the incentive would be retention or anything like that.

Well, he only gets commission if the users actually make a (monthly) profit... if it's a loss, he gets nothing. So, theoretically at least, it is in the bot creators best interests to make sure that the bot works and generates profits.

Well, he only gets commission if the users actually make a (monthly) profit... if it's a loss, he gets nothing. So, theoretically at least, it is in the bot creators best interests to make sure that the bot works and generates profits.