Pages:
Author

Topic: "HCP's ongoing experiment of the BotHIVE.io Trading Platform"™ - page 6. (Read 2611 times)

legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 2262
BTC or BUST
their were FOUR different outcomes which was apparently dependent on what VPS your bot was running on??!? Huh So, some users ended up with a 1% win... some users got hammered for a 30% loss... and a couple of results inbetween.

Sounds more like their is no bot at all..

Do any users have the exact same results and exact same trade times?
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1427
How did i just now stumble on this thread? HCP? You did it! You crazy son of a bitch! You actually ran his bot with 0.1BTC...  Shocked Shocked

I understand what you guys are saying... and the "obvious" thing to do at this point is cut and run... but then, the "obvious" thing would have been to NOT put any money into this in the first place! Tongue

Which is kind of the entire point of this little experiment. Hopefully, by having an independent user actually participating and providing "real" data and not blowing smoke about "algorithms", "machine learning" and backtests using ridiculous bankrolls and fancy graphs... everyone will be able to see past the "marketing" and see exactly what this service is and what it is doing.

And now... I'm just kinda morbidly curious as to what is going to happen next... it's a bit like a slow motion trainwreck... I find it fascinating and can't (don't want to?) stop watching!  Cheesy Wink Shocked
Damn.... Really, i applaud you for doing this "service" to the community, but really- anyone should've seen this coming.

CryptoSparkles was an arrogant douchebag from the very beginning with flawed backtests who was writing translations for ICO's (no offense) just months prior to becoming some sort of quantitative analyst.
How he ever got a following really is beyond me.


Moreover, I believe that he is trying to improve his bot, it is beneficial for him, once the bot works effectively, his income will increase certainly many times. But first, think of another reason for him to start this service. You and others are becoming experiments for him, every time the bot fails, you lose money, and he loses nothing. Maybe I'm wrong, but you're spending your money just to experiment for him, and after you, so do many others.   Roll Eyes  Just a sincere opinion of me, hope you do not waste your money, although I know you have your purpose
Well, it's not hard to make money "trading" bitcoin. Just as it's not hard to lose it all. Him making a commision on the winning trades seems like a pretty good business model to me, considering bitcoin either goes up, or down. He indeed never had much to lose.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
Thanks to HCP for an excellent write-up. I think this proves that the kid doesn't really have much of a clue about trading, googled some fancy words, and decided that he can outsmart everyone in the market. That's the most charitable interpretation I can come up with short of it being a premeditated scam, but for the victims/clients it doesn't really matter what we call it.
hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 783
better everyday ♥
Just to clarify... he doesn't actually get the $10 month for the VPS... I paid that directly to the VPS provider... whether or not he is getting any referral commission on those VPS accounts, I don't know. So essentially, the only income he gets is if the bot wins.
There is a high probability that he has an agreement with VPS providers, just my thoughts, not sure. He can get a share of the income without his bot working well.

Moreover, I believe that he is trying to improve his bot, it is beneficial for him, once the bot works effectively, his income will increase certainly many times. But first, think of another reason for him to start this service. You and others are becoming experiments for him, every time the bot fails, you lose money, and he loses nothing. Maybe I'm wrong, but you're spending your money just to experiment for him, and after you, so do many others.   Roll Eyes  Just a sincere opinion of me, hope you do not waste your money, although I know you have your purpose
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
I understand what you guys are saying... and the "obvious" thing to do at this point is cut and run... but then, the "obvious" thing would have been to NOT put any money into this in the first place! Tongue

Which is kind of the entire point of this little experiment. Hopefully, by having an independent user actually participating and providing "real" data and not blowing smoke about "algorithms", "machine learning" and backtests using ridiculous bankrolls and fancy graphs... everyone will be able to see past the "marketing" and see exactly what this service is and what it is doing.

And now... I'm just kinda morbidly curious as to what is going to happen next... it's a bit like a slow motion trainwreck... I find it fascinating and can't (don't want to?) stop watching!  Cheesy Wink Shocked


Update: now imagine someone pays you $10 per month to gamble with their money, and if you win, you get to keep 30%, but if you lose, the loss is all theirs Shocked That's a terrible deal, unless you're the one who came up with it.
Just to clarify... he doesn't actually get the $10 month for the VPS... I paid that directly to the VPS provider... whether or not he is getting any referral commission on those VPS accounts, I don't know. So essentially, the only income he gets is if the bot wins.

Still, not a bad deal for him really... as you say, gambling with other peoples money with no risk (unless you value your reputation Roll Eyes)!
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18711
NOTE: CryptoSparks has announced that all users will get next months VPS "free" due to the large amount of maintenance this month and no active trading etc.
Lol. This is like when Binance were hacked for KYC documents, and offered all those affected reduced fees to continue to trade on Binance. The bot has been down for weeks and lost 40% of users' funds - he's offering free VPS not as a gesture of goodwill but to try to entice people to stay for another month with his obviously terrible service.

Quote from: Bot Owner on Telegram Chat
Even tough the new Arakne will start on a new public trading journey, i will also let it manage the previous one account that after peaking at +57% is now down at -18% to demonstrate how recovery is not only possible but an inevitable consequence of proper risk management over long periods of time.
He's back at it with his ridiculous claims. Recovery is inevitable is just another way of saying guaranteed returns. Even after being proved spectacularly wrong he's still peddling this nonsense.

I'm with Loyce here - if it were my money, I'd prefer to just gamble it.
legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
A lot of users have pulled their funds and cancelled their API keys etc to cut their losses etc... and the bot is currently in "maintenance". But, I promised I was going to see this through (and I pretty much wrote my 0.1BTC off the moment I deposited it anyway Tongue), so my 0.06071360 BTC shall stay there, API keys are still active and we'll see how it all plays out.
Your promise was only for one month, right? So you can stop with what you have left.

I figure I may as well just ride it out until either all my money is gone (or maybe one more big loss? Huh)... or I get back to 0.1 BTC. At this stage, I'm fairly confident that I know which one of those things is going to occur first Roll Eyes Tongue
With Martingale, I always ask myself: if you can win it all back by risking more, why didn't you start with that in the first place? After reading this topic, I think putting your remaining 0.06 BTC all on black (or red, up to you) gives you a better chance at "earning" back your losses than continuing this.



Update: now imagine someone pays you $10 per month to gamble with their money, and if you win, you get to keep 30%, but if you lose, the loss is all theirs Shocked That's a terrible deal, unless you're the one who came up with it.
hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 783
better everyday ♥
Seriously tho, I put the money in figuring it would probably be lost... I wanted to risk my money so others wouldn't need to and could get a reasonably independent and honest assessment of what the bot was actually doing (without the ludicrous claims of ROI based on backtests and imaginary bankrolls).

I figure I may as well just ride it out until either all my money is gone (or maybe one more big loss? Huh)... or I get back to 0.1 BTC. At this stage, I'm fairly confident that I know which one of those things is going to occur first Roll Eyes Tongue
The bot is under maintenance, maybe it will be fixed because of a few wrong decisions, specifically that you came up with
what WAS a bad thing however, was the bot deciding that it needed to go "full retard" and launched into massive 25x leverage trade within $70 of the previous stop loss that was still active!!?! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

But this maintenance cannot guarantee that the bot will not make another mistake, which is worrying. I don't believe it is feasible, but I hope you can get back 0.1 BTC. I will keep notification here and wait for your next updates  Wink
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
So this test has paused with a loss -39,29% and another test ended with 39,10%. Obviously this is a bad outcome for anyone and what you and others get is just a free VPS next month  Roll Eyes
"paused" only because the bot has been taken offline... and I have zero control over the bot. The last "update" from the bot creator was this:
Quote
Arakne is in maintenance , will be back online on the next hours

That was nearly 14 hours ago at the time of posting this. Roll Eyes


Quote
But why haven't you stopped while others have withdrawn, canceled the API key, etc Huh. At least the result is that this bot is not reliable, you can lose the remaining money if you continue to operate with it.
Well, it has been a month since I started... but if I DON'T stop and withdraw now... then technically the 0.04 BTC loss is "unrealised" Tongue

Seriously tho, I put the money in figuring it would probably be lost... I wanted to risk my money so others wouldn't need to and could get a reasonably independent and honest assessment of what the bot was actually doing (without the ludicrous claims of ROI based on backtests and imaginary bankrolls).

I figure I may as well just ride it out until either all my money is gone (or maybe one more big loss? Huh)... or I get back to 0.1 BTC. At this stage, I'm fairly confident that I know which one of those things is going to occur first Roll Eyes Tongue
hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 783
better everyday ♥
So this test has paused with a loss -39,29% and another test ended with 39,10%. Obviously this is a bad outcome for anyone and what you and others get is just a free VPS next month  Roll Eyes But why haven't you stopped while others have withdrawn, canceled the API key, etc Huh. At least the result is that this bot is not reliable, you can lose the remaining money if you continue to operate with it.

Who knows? Maybe I'll claw back my losses before next Christmas!  Grin Cheesy Roll Eyes Tongue
It is still a very long time until next year's Christmas, wish you get back more than what was lost  Wink
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
Any update on this HCP?
Yeah, sorry... been working pretty hard over the Xmas break.


guigui371 was also running the same experiment. It seems he had a similar period of inactivity before the bot woke up again on Christmas Eve and made another poor trade for another large loss. I assume you have therefore suffered similar losses.
Pretty much... it was a total shit show... as I'm lead to believe, their were FOUR different outcomes which was apparently dependent on what VPS your bot was running on??!? Huh So, some users ended up with a 1% win... some users got hammered for a 30% loss... and a couple of results inbetween.

I ended up with a ~25% (-0.01943218 BTC) loss... for a total loss now of -BTC 0.03928640 (-39.29%) since my original 0.1 BTC deposit on Nov 28:



The bot was taken offline for maintenance... and hasn't been trading since.



Seems that those on a "good" VPS, ended up with a trade being filled (for a couple of small amounts like "139" and "143")... and a (fairly reasonable) stoploss set around -$300 ($7238) from the market rate at the time (was around $7500-7600)... those on "bad" VPS, didn't... and turned in the small 1% profit. The market then dropped, and sat there for around 12 hours or so... bouncing around the $7300 mark... which in and of itself, wasn't exactly a bad thing... what WAS a bad thing however, was the bot deciding that it needed to go "full retard" and launched into massive 25x leverage trade within $70 of the previous stop loss that was still active!!?! Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

You can see here how the bot decided that we suddenly needed close to "13,000" worth of contracts at prices within $70-$90 of the existing stoploss at $7238, and how everything got dumped when it inevitably got triggered:



Obviously, in a market as volatile as BTC... trading so close to a stoploss like that is asking for trouble... and inevitably, the stop loss from the earlier trade got triggered... which then liquidated EVERYTHING Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Cue massive losses. Undecided

If the bot hadn't opened that "new" position... the loss would have only been ~ -0.00100000 BTC... inside we got slaughtered and much much much MUCH "salt" on the Telegram group... and eventually this response/"explanation" from CryptoSparks:
Quote from: Bot Owner on Telegram Chat
Hello people, looks like we got an ugly Christmas gift but still an interesting one. It took me a while to read all logs of all bots so here is what happened.


After closing 3 exits in the 7.5k-7.6k area with +1% profit, some users suffered total and then partial VPS slowdowns caused by attacks on vps provider’s servers, that made them take a separate road. A missing entry fill allowed some users to close this trade in just a few minutes and go in stasis with full profit. Others got that extra fill but delay in placing exit caused a missing exit and stayed in the trade with extra risk. Remember that Arakne’s trade ends when last contract is dropped, so a missed fill, may that be an entry or an exit, can influence the final outcome.


Anyway price collapses and we get stuck in a low risk (1%-2%) long at 7.5k. But our stop holds the bart until detected support formation and breakout from it at 7.3k which Arakne bought and averaged down our entry from 7.5 to 7.3 so we could have exited on the 7.4k impulse. Problem was that when entries were added, stop was still considered strong so no update was needed. When the stop algorithm detected possible shakeout, we were already filled at max risk capacity and attempts to edit the stop in a safe zone failed.

The shakeout got our stop for 20$ right before starting the 7.4k “scheduled” impulse that triggered our strong adds. OUCH!


 YES, Arakne uses some martingale mechanics, but in a controlled way to average the entry and avoid getting trapped in a trade. That’s actually common among marketmakers, and whatever you like it or not you can have FULL CONTROL on the risk. Long term users may have noticed how Arakne’s avg entry is always a key level in the market range, it simply how markets work. That’s why Arakne starts with leverage BELLOW 1 and reaches max 25 out of 100. We rarely go above 8, but being able to reach 25 is like having always one last ace to play when trapped in a trade. This time Arakne failed in playing it well, because indeed needed to add to position but also to increase stop size.


 NO, is just not true that Arakne makes only small wins. For example the day before the first loss we had a +15%.

 NO, is just not true that Arakne only makes big losses. Here the loss list of current version since 2018:

0  -1.0239223164147369
1  -7.770849221211668
2  -6.0998134976693805
3  -1.9440504813533817
4  -2.915077465267908
5  -4.060302922521566
6  -1.7726049435660876
7  -3.7430129787980335
8  -14.309137251004552
9  -6.345744077310631
10  -0.009555729922808811
11  -1.652253475973144
12  -1.8721211623094127
13  -1.9481837015325076
14  -8.124456834850443
15  -23.46791646786238

 THE PROBLEM with last trade is how savagely she went in buying 7.3 without FIRST updating the stop at 7238 and taking that extra life space mandatory after surviving Bitcoin dipping. The shit happened for a combination of factors such as:
- strong long breakout detected with several supports to buy but at relatively small spread from each other .
- small spread from stop
- big spread from entry
- several algos approving the call

result is that risk was prioritised in averaging down the entry FIRST at all costs. How algorithms gets their priority is highly based on settings managed by machine learning. So i understand you guys are mad because she went crazy near the stop, but the function to increase stop size was there, if she chose not to use it means that statistically in the past that move worked. When shakeout alarm triggered it was already too late and got stuck in that stop. So we are talking about a missing logic part. She needs a way to increase stop when maxed out or the flow stops there, in another and more dangerous trap!

Anyway Stop gets triggered by 20$ right before the impulse’s start to 7.4 that Arakne was expecting as our best chance for exiting the trade . And with the trade setup she was doing, the win would have been absolutely massive(above 30%). DOUBLE OUCH!

The point of failure was that the probable shakeout signal triggered right after we hit max fill capacity, at that point she couldn’t put more risk on the table by moving the stop further.


Getting shakedout is something we cannot ever RISK. So this scenario showed that we need an EMERGENCY TRAILING STOP algorithm that manages this risky situation where we needed to add in order to exit the trap but ALSO we urgently need to increase stop size without risking over the max drawdown allowed to avoid the shakeout. That is already being done by Arakne but with some mathematical limitations. Some fixes to the MM algorithm will make sure that in a way or another, we will 100% of times have the possibility to safely get some ‘survival space’ when is needed. There are different ways to achieve that, for example dropping some levels at loss and use that risk for increasing the stop and dynamically keep it at safety distance or “save some risk” for emergencies.
  

And for the ones that say that i adjust graphs, look how the backtest engine shows the same loss. I bet that if a loss similar would have already happened in the 2 year of data analysed , the machine learning optimisation would have differed and so the trade result. Is about teaching the algorithms but without giving them too much freedom.


WHAT NOW?

Our vision is to make algorithmic trading accessible to everyone, and a couple losses will not prevent us from delivering the final goal, especially since both losses made the products better.

You are free to leave and yell scam after a loss, but we are here to stay, this is just the beginning.

We care about our users because our business model cannot succeed if users don’t succeed. That’s why most competitors ask for high entry fee while we will be a free to try SaaS. To further reward our early adopters, both losses that hit Arakne in december will be transformed in credit on our platform since day 1.

Just register and send us your nickname in private to receive the credit, then connect different Bitmex accounts via API and spread the capital among all bots based on their risk indicator! With that free credit you will be able to safely recover and start grinding profit again.

As for now you are 100% in one bot, as in any investment, differentiation is the key. Even though you have seen Arakne keeping 100% win rate for 3 months, trading is not about always winning but about managing risk properly over a long period of time. Last trade clearly showed a point of weakness in Arakne’s risk control that absolutely needs to be patched, that’s why i immediately put it in maintenance.



 Stay tuned for updates on launch date, meanwhile Arakne will get updated and be back running on your accounts in the next days, so no action is required until platform launch.

Lastly I understand that losing this way is frustrating , but have some consistency. ZakZak just a couple weeks ago you sent me a beautiful message full of thanks and stuff like that, now Im not only a scammer but also the bot doesn’t exits ?

Even tough the new Arakne will start on a new public trading journey, i will also let it manage the previous one account that after peaking at +57% is now down at -18% to demonstrate how recovery is not only possible but an inevitable consequence of proper risk management over long periods of time.
NOTE: CryptoSparks has announced that all users will get next months VPS "free" due to the large amount of maintenance this month and no active trading etc.


A lot of users have pulled their funds and cancelled their API keys etc to cut their losses etc... and the bot is currently in "maintenance". But, I promised I was going to see this through (and I pretty much wrote my 0.1BTC off the moment I deposited it anyway Tongue), so my 0.06071360 BTC shall stay there, API keys are still active and we'll see how it all plays out.

Who knows? Maybe I'll claw back my losses before next Christmas!  Grin Cheesy Roll Eyes Tongue


NOTE: Basically, imho, the bot was/is "broken". Trading that close to the existing stoploss was reckless. I would not recommend that anyone put money into this bot (or "The Platform"™).
copper member
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1901
Amazon Prime Member #7
"All quiet on the western front"...

Since the big loss... there has been no trading.
[img width=600 ]https://i.imgur.com/F8gIgRC.png[/img]


That's pretty much 2 weeks of no activity now. Undecided
I would say that two weeks of no trading pretty much means he is a scammer IMO, considering the other facts. This is disappointing because I somewhat stuck my neck out for him, and it turns out I was wrong.

I don’t think it would be terribly difficult to design a bot as described by him, although I am not sure anyone with the technical skills to do so would be selling the bot for what he was selling access to it for.
hero member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 783
better everyday ♥
If the bot person would refund 30% on losses - that would be a decent incentive. Otherwise he doesn't risk anything. And he certainly doesn't care about customer relations, so you can't say the incentive would be retention or anything like that.

I am interested in your thoughts  Cheesy In fact, bot creators will never refund you if the investor loses money, it's a safe way to work, just make sure he is always profitable and doesn't lose any money. But if he can refund 30% of the loss, he must be more responsible and his bot must be more efficient. It helps ensure the quality of bot, this case is mutually beneficial, on the other hands, it also helps him to compete
 easily with others to provide trading bots. Just an interesting idea that I think OP should consider to apply in your service.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18711
Any update on this HCP?

guigui371 was also running the same experiment. It seems he had a similar period of inactivity before the bot woke up again on Christmas Eve and made another poor trade for another large loss. I assume you have therefore suffered similar losses.

Furthermore, CryptoSparks' last post was 2 weeks ago, and he locked his thread to prevent any more criticism of his bot.
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 2037
That sucks, I was hoping to see a decent comeback especially given the moves we've seen happen since then. I'm only weighing in on this experience but it looks like this is what the testing phase should look like. that's the time for tweaking. I'm still rooting for your gamble here that you come out ahead or at least closer to even, but it's gotta take a shot for that to happen.
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
"All quiet on the western front"...

Since the big loss... there has been no trading.



That's pretty much 2 weeks of no activity now. Undecided
HCP
legendary
Activity: 2086
Merit: 4361
Not much going on for the last week since the big loss.



As we can see... just the daily 0.000000xx btc trade to prevent the API bug from crashing the bot. NOTE: There was an attempted trade around the 9th, but the "entry points" didn't get hit (market maker bot)... which was a shame, as it was an attempted short and the price dumped by a couple of hundred and would have made a nice profit Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Since then, the bot creator has added a 7th algorithm to the bot to try and prevent a repeat of the 30% loss... apparently this change will mean that the bot is a bit more conservative and likely to trade less often, but is theoretically "safer"... it will also likely mean a reduced return given the lower trading frequency... Undecided

#timeWillTell
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1196
STOP SNITCHIN'
He now makes a risk-free 30%, while the bot-users risk their funds.
Well, he only gets commission if the users actually make a (monthly) profit... if it's a loss, he gets nothing. So, theoretically at least, it is in the bot creators best interests to make sure that the bot works and generates profits.

The pricing model suggests that he expects short-term profitable periods that he can extract rent from, but that he isn't confident about long term profitability. If the bot were consistently profitable, he wouldn't want to give away 70% of the profits by licensing it out. He could get rich by compounding gains instead.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
Well, he only gets commission if the users actually make a (monthly) profit... if it's a loss, he gets nothing. So, theoretically at least, it is in the bot creators best interests to make sure that the bot works and generates profits.

If the bot person would refund 30% on losses - that would be a decent incentive. Otherwise he doesn't risk anything. And he certainly doesn't care about customer relations, so you can't say the incentive would be retention or anything like that.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 3684
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
OK, so I finally understood that it is a mini-martingale tactic going on in there under the hood. Which I suppose could work out to be a brilliant strategy if you have a big bankroll at high leverage -- precisely what BitMEX allows. But if you're not redepositing (I take it you're not), then the experiment isn't similar to what the owner would otherwise recommend right?

P.S. Did not realise you were a Reds supporter. Funny how all our betting/trading/gambling (they're not all the same are they?Wink ) all seem much better when we win eh?
Pages:
Jump to: