Topic: Here we go - page 2. (Read 11685 times)

Sell wall is getting smaller and smaller at Bitstamp, we could jump to $600 today

Well.. then we need to quit moaning about price being what it is - and it being stalled.

RE: TA  I didn't say it's not helpful, I just said it is very very dependent on your state of mind when you are looking at the graphs - if one can remove all the emotion from your trading decisions then TA certainly is far more useful.

I agree with the rest of your observations.

You are just sad that bitcoins amateur days are over. There are altcoins for you! Bitcoin, whether you like it or not, needs to grow, it can't be a garage pet project and rule the world at the same time.

Agree again.

There's a smart part in your post (mining and price are linked, though not in the obvious way that some seem to think it is), and a not so smart part. Sure, technical analysis tends to see patterns where there are none, but that's not the same as saying it is entirely incapable of picking up changes in supply and demand that can be profitably used in your trading decisions.

Re: your mining argument. I agree, the "professional" miners are one of /the/ most defining elements of the Bitcoin price function right now, but I'm not sure if we see it as having the same effect. The concentration of mining means that there is substantially more OTC trading, and less on-exchange volume.

While both miners and those who buy from miners could in principle try to  manipulate the on-exchange price to get a deal off-exchange that is more to their liking, I will for simplicity assume that those attempts would largely even each other out (though in reality I think the buyers have the better chance at successful manipulation, because they are the "old" money, and presumably have both more experience and more funds in total).

But like I said, I'll assume that both sides try, but fail, to move price on-exchange in the direction they'd prefer (miners: up, buyers: down). But one fact remains untouched by this: trading volume and price are heavily correlated, and almost certainly causally linked. And since the entire premise was that OTC volume rises while on-exchange volume is dropping (proportionally), the effect of big OTC deals depresses the /public/ price, while the actual price that would emerge if volume were on exchange again is in fact higher.

tl;dr the tendency for miners to go professional means more off-exchange deals, which means that the actual demand for coins is higher than can be read off from the demand on the exchanges, which means: Bitcoin is (as a tendency) undervalued.

Nope.

Bought in at $460, sold at $520, anticipating an imminent correction and then I have to see things are looking from there.

.....and who said I am bearish?

Right now I am undecided on the longer term and am verging on undecided/bullish over the medium term. Obviously I was bullish enough to buy in at $460 and bullish enough to tell someone (sharkyshark) that shorting Bitcoin at $500 was a very bad idea.

Simple answer : Either/Neither and Both.

I personally believe hectic difficulty drives up price - but availability of hardware drives it down - or at least it did in the past. It used to be a leading indicator when hardware was NOT available. But now that there are any number of choices to attack the current difficulty and potentially break even we are stalled. Your question is simple the answer is not.

(and everyone else is just holding - while this goes on)

EDIT: That difficulty tracker doesn't show the full picture from genesis. Someone needs to do a time from genesis price/diff overlay graph.

There definitely is a link between difficulty and price: http://cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php

I'm still struggling to identify exactly what it is though.  Is it a leading indicator or a trailing indicator of price.  Are they inversely correlated?

I am also heavily bearish. Nevermind the TA - most of the liquidity in the Bitcoin economy has been killed off by the mega and very serious miners. All they doing is turning electricity into heat right now and flipping bitcoins for more hardware to stay in the race to the bottom. Time/Block is still around 8 minutes which means we are still at 11-12 day retargets so ~20% diff increases. The curve is not flattening .. till it does I don't see any reason for the price to recover. (Yes I am linking Diff to Price - in my opinion they are linked - although not directly or very predictably ). mt.gox disaster is not finished and neither is the Shrem and SR horseshit either.

PS: TA is like making toast and seeing Jesus .. all it takes is bread and a toaster and a propensity for seeing Jesus in everything because that all you are thinking about. Likewise with TA : just use the zoom button / or change time resolution and you will find a picture you like.

And before someone jumps on me and says " Well mining isn't everything in the Bitcoin economy " - no it isn't. But it's what drove it in the past.

EDIT: To be a bit melodramatic : I am actually rather depressed about it all - all the fun has been destroyed. Now it's just a super inconvenient way to pay for shit.

I think you are the only bear still posting since we broke out.

I have been buying heavily down in the low 4xx's. It will be interesting to see how far this runs before it stalls and pulls back. I would be surprised if this is actual beginning of the next bull rally - seems a bit too easy tbh. Here is hoping we do get back up to the 8xx's on this run though. 

Did you buy back in Mat?

Any short terms predictions? for the next 10 days...  

Rather late to the party aren't you?

Bitcoin has stopped dead below the long term down trend from Dec 2013. Volume has been dying back all the time and the 1 day momentum indicators look to be maxed out.

Sage words =D

So. When we look at present price situation we can easily see that OP chart is looking more realistic than a week ago. Isn't?  :-)

We haven't seen such rally from weeks ...

I am getting excited :-)

Where is "UglyTroll"? 

But you will be crying, just later. Goldfishes never lie.

And he also smells like fish.

The Doge seems more accurate and obviously required some better mspaint skillz .. so it wins.

Your gold fish knows how to hodl