Here we go - page 8. | Bitcointalksearch.org

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

This type of naive extrapolation, from data points /years/ in the past, is really not a good predictor of anything short or mid term.

The chart by Elwar relies on the data point of the flash crash in October 2013, so it can construct the "nice line" from Jan 2013, via October 2013, to now.

But who can say with certainty that this isn't the "real" exponential trendline:

(ignore the last 60 or so candles, of course)

So, why not that one? It has 3 beautiful "areas of contact": the end of the 2011 bear market, several contact in July 2012, and in Jan 2013. That's as good, if not better, than the motivation for the Bitstamp chart by Elwar.

Plot twist: the lower line of this one currently sits at $135.

Here's the take home message: don't trade based on extrapolations from year-long trends. If you must, use them to inform your long-term investment goals, but they sure as hell won't tell you when a correction is over, or about to begin for that matter.

BitChick

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1001

What I keep thinking when I see these charts is, "can it really be this predictable?"

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Elwar on May 16, 2014, 07:08:13 AM

And what happens if Bitcoin spikes down below that log support trendline that it is practically already touching?

What happens then?

What would that mean?

Quote from: JimboToronto on May 16, 2014, 11:19:34 AM

Your feeling bearish makes me feel bullish. Tongue

Barack Obama making a public announcement outlawing Bitcoin across the globe and threatening to use force (if necessary) against countries who allow Bitcoin to proliferate within thier borders, would make you feel bullish.....

...."Gee look guys! Obama just declared war on Bitcoin! We got em running scared now! 2 da Moon!!"

Yes indeed Jimbo. The fact that you are gormless idiot is well known!

jc01480

hero member

Activity: 854

Merit: 500

Nope..

Quote from: baggage on May 16, 2014, 09:17:21 AM

Quote from: E-C.Guru on May 16, 2014, 07:39:26 AM

Ummno. Too many big investors got their eyes on bitcoin now. I say 10k. At least. No, it's not wishful thinking. It's fact. Shocked

May I ask who these big investors are and what they are waiting for?

A Republican dominated House, Senate, and Oval Office.

JimboToronto

legendary

Activity: 4200

Merit: 4887

You're never too old to think young.

Quote from: TERA on May 16, 2014, 07:35:09 AM

All of these threads about spectacular projections of rallies to the moon and stars are making me feel bearish.

Your feeling bearish makes me feel bullish. Tongue

spazzdla

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1000

Quote from: DustyRah on May 16, 2014, 09:24:01 AM

Quote from: roslinpl on May 16, 2014, 07:15:40 AM

I hope expert was right with his analysis. According to this next rally will rise the price up to over $5k :-)
I think that indeed this is possible and what else I can say it is needed to +++ the value of the Bitcoin. As current wall situation is getting me realy bored :-)

If there is a rally, it will tear the $1000 mark and then $5000 will not seem so far away.

As long as we don't have another Mt. Gox kind of thieving crap and Chinese bitches staying out, it may gradually get into the bull mode.

http://www.coindesk.com/china-moves-disrupt-access-major-bitcoin-websites/

China is going full war mode against BTC..... It's a shame the American gov has been hunting down the hackers of anonmous for defending the innocent... Sad

.

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

you don't know Elwar then. Wink

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: wachtwoord on May 16, 2014, 07:48:58 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on May 16, 2014, 07:12:01 AM

Expert who? on what?

Are you calling yourself an expert?

Look up sarcasm in the dictionary please. Will make a lot of conversations easier to follow Wink

lol if you think that was sarcasm.

frienemy

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

I was promised da moon

Quote from: fattypig on May 16, 2014, 09:27:40 AM

Still waiting for the bull, it has been silent at $440....

A rallye starts slow. It's not a bull run at first, but the MOON walk. That's not a really fast way to walk, but it's classy Wink

fattypig

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: DustyRah on May 16, 2014, 09:24:01 AM

Quote from: roslinpl on May 16, 2014, 07:15:40 AM

I hope expert was right with his analysis. According to this next rally will rise the price up to over $5k :-)
I think that indeed this is possible and what else I can say it is needed to +++ the value of the Bitcoin. As current wall situation is getting me realy bored :-)

If there is a rally, it will tear the $1000 mark and then $5000 will not seem so far away.

As long as we don't have another Mt. Gox kind of thieving crap and Chinese bitches staying out, it may gradually get into the bull mode.

Still waiting for the bull, it has been silent at $440....

DustyRah

sr. member

Activity: 530

Merit: 250

Quote from: roslinpl on May 16, 2014, 07:15:40 AM

I hope expert was right with his analysis. According to this next rally will rise the price up to over $5k :-)
I think that indeed this is possible and what else I can say it is needed to +++ the value of the Bitcoin. As current wall situation is getting me realy bored :-)

If there is a rally, it will tear the $1000 mark and then $5000 will not seem so far away.

As long as we don't have another Mt. Gox kind of thieving crap and Chinese bitches staying out, it may gradually get into the bull mode.

baggage

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Quote from: E-C.Guru on May 16, 2014, 07:39:26 AM

Ummno. Too many big investors got their eyes on bitcoin now. I say 10k. At least. No, it's not wishful thinking. It's fact. Shocked

May I ask who these big investors are and what they are waiting for?

frienemy

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

I was promised da moon

Quote from: 600watt on May 16, 2014, 08:45:00 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 16, 2014, 07:35:09 AM

All of these threads about spectacular projections of rallies to the moon and stars are making me feel bearish. But earlier I was feeling bullish. Thanks alot...

i think the bulls noticed that and that made them even more bullish. don´t underestimate your own contribution to this ... Wink

I think bitcointalk sentiment speculation becomes less and less significant. There are just too many people around who want the price to go up and are willing to express that (number of posts following an exponential trendline Wink

), so even if it rallyes down, we will have more and more bullish posts from now on.

jcoin200

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Isn't the increased adoption and merchant acceptance going to help stabilize the price? I mean these places have said they will be instantly converting BTC into cash, so in essence more BTC will be sold every time something is purchased from say Overstock.com with BTC. Do you have any reason to think price is going up this fast this soon other than a potential pattern on a graph?

600watt

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 2106

Quote from: TERA on May 16, 2014, 07:35:09 AM

All of these threads about spectacular projections of rallies to the moon and stars are making me feel bearish. But earlier I was feeling bullish. Thanks alot...

i think the bulls noticed that and that made them even more bullish. don´t underestimate your own contribution to this ... Wink

frienemy

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

I was promised da moon

Quote from: piramida on May 16, 2014, 08:30:20 AM

Quote from: frienemy on May 16, 2014, 08:28:29 AM

does a head-and-shoulders formation by definition always be horizontal?

Yes. You are not allowed to rotate graphs arbitrarily, it makes no sense. That way you can make any rally into crash by flipping the graph upside down.

Okay, so I will leave that to Chuck Norris.

segeln

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: Elwar on May 16, 2014, 07:08:13 AM

Expert analysis shows...big things coming soon...

+1

piramida

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1010

Borsche

Quote from: frienemy on May 16, 2014, 08:28:29 AM

does a head-and-shoulders formation by definition always be horizontal?

Yes. You are not allowed to rotate graphs arbitrarily, it makes no sense. That way you can make any rally into crash by flipping the graph upside down.

alani123

legendary

Activity: 2422

Merit: 1451

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

yeah right...

There is much more than just looking at a graph to even try and predict future movements of a market.

frienemy

full member

Activity: 235

Merit: 100

I was promised da moon

Quote from: Elwar on May 16, 2014, 07:08:13 AM

Expert analysis shows...big things coming soon...

Sorry for a rather noobish question, but does a head-and-shoulders formation by definition always be horizontal? If we shift the angle slightly and see the aApril 2013 peak as left shoulder and the December peak as head, then there could be a weaker peak as right shoulder this year, maybe going up to only 2,100. If this is true, the good thing would be that the "downside" after the head-and-shoulders wouldn't be that bad, because it's not happening on a horizontal scale. Any ideas? Bashing allowed if this question is complete nonsense! Wink

Topic: Here we go - page 8. (Read 11685 times)