Here's how you can anticipate a coming crash/correction

phelix

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Quote from: arepo on April 28, 2013, 06:22:31 AM

Quote from: bootlace on March 29, 2013, 11:57:27 AM

So how to anticipate whether a price correction is coming or warranted? Following the data points below over time should warn you ahead of others if interest is waning.

won't warn you ahead of anyone who doesn't also look at these charts, unfortunately. also all of these indicators are 'lagging' indicators.

--arepo

+1 Or did anybody see an "on time" indicator other than crazy price increase?

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: bootlace on March 29, 2013, 11:57:27 AM

So how to anticipate whether a price correction is coming or warranted? Following the data points below over time should warn you ahead of others if interest is waning.

won't warn you ahead of anyone who doesn't also look at these charts, unfortunately. also all of these indicators are 'lagging' indicators.

--arepo

shamntalk

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BTC

Updated: http://imgur.com/v333MLl

Equilux

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For some reason I thought the charts in OP would automaticly update, but I see they don't. Would it be possible to make them update in this thread?

lebing

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Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: hgmichna on April 01, 2013, 12:28:55 PM

Quote from: lebing on April 01, 2013, 09:07:14 AM

Quote from: hgmichna on April 01, 2013, 05:37:29 AM

Mt.Gox could solve its nuisance micro-order problem with much lower fees [than E*Trade]. And they would rid themselves of the front-running suspicion as well.

Sounds like a solid business plan for a competitor...

Mt.Gox has captured a natural monopoly. Or, to explain it with a saying, translated from lower German, "The devil shits by the biggest heap."

Competition is possible, but the competitor would face a very steep up-hill struggle for a long while. Mt.Gox could lower their fees to much lower rates and still make money.

That said, I would greatly appreciate more competition.

You are quite right that the fees are exorbitant now. I expect a serious competitor to gox to emerge within the next year probably in the US now that it is essentially legal. It will take big money to dethrone them, which is fine because big money is being tossed at this at the moment anyway.

phelix

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Quote from: hgmichna on March 31, 2013, 12:18:36 PM

Quote from: phelix on March 31, 2013, 11:49:36 AM

word is the lag comes from them having to go through all the orders and check whether there is enough dough behind them. Tux wrote somewhere they will change it so that every order has to be backed, which should make the systems way faster. Hope they do this change soon.

But they don't have to go through all the orders. They only have to check whether an order is funded exactly once, when it is about to be executed. If it is not funded at that moment, it is deleted.

No, because another order could have freed money/coins to back another order.

Quote

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

That I don't get either. Would be so simple.

hgmichna

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Quote from: lebing on April 01, 2013, 09:07:14 AM

Quote from: hgmichna on April 01, 2013, 05:37:29 AM

Mt.Gox could solve its nuisance micro-order problem with much lower fees [than E*Trade]. And they would rid themselves of the front-running suspicion as well.

Sounds like a solid business plan for a competitor...

Mt.Gox has captured a natural monopoly. Or, to explain it with a saying, translated from lower German, "The devil shits by the biggest heap."

Competition is possible, but the competitor would face a very steep up-hill struggle for a long while. Mt.Gox could lower their fees to much lower rates and still make money.

That said, I would greatly appreciate more competition.

lebing

legendary

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Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: Sword Smith on April 01, 2013, 10:37:59 AM

Quote from: Elwar on March 29, 2013, 06:44:52 PM

Bitcoin price is a google trends predictor.

+1
Excactly. The price seems to drive the interest more than the other way around although although both views are true to some degree. People like to make money.

Technically, its a feedback loop so its circular, not single direction.

Sword Smith

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Neptune, Scalable Privacy

Quote from: Elwar on March 29, 2013, 06:44:52 PM

Bitcoin price is a google trends predictor.

+1
Excactly. The price seems to drive the interest more than the other way around although although both views are true to some degree. People like to make money.

lebing

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Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: hgmichna on April 01, 2013, 05:37:29 AM

Quote from: James Bond on March 31, 2013, 07:33:25 PM

Quote from: hgmichna on March 31, 2013, 12:18:36 PM

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

What's this base rate or base price you're talking about?

A fixed amount for each transaction. Example: E*Trade asks for $9.99, less under certain circumstances, for each stock and options trade, 75¢ per options contract, and $1 per online bond trade, no matter which value.

Mt.Gox could solve its nuisance micro-order problem with much lower fees. And they would rid themselves of the front-running suspicion as well.

Sounds like a solid business plan for a competitor...

hgmichna

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Quote from: James Bond on March 31, 2013, 07:33:25 PM

Quote from: hgmichna on March 31, 2013, 12:18:36 PM

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

What's this base rate or base price you're talking about?

A fixed amount for each transaction. Example: E*Trade asks for $9.99, less under certain circumstances, for each stock and options trade, 75¢ per options contract, and $1 per online bond trade, no matter which value.

Mt.Gox could solve its nuisance micro-order problem with much lower fees than those of E*Trade. And they would rid themselves of the front-running suspicion as well.

Ares

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Quote from: James Bond on April 01, 2013, 01:23:41 AM

Quote from: Ares on April 01, 2013, 01:18:40 AM

You don't see it at 0 when you go here?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q

I followed the link in the OP, then set the filter on the left to "past 90 days"

I see it dropping to zero for the last data point when I use your link. Instead I look at a graph that goes from June 2010 to March 2013 (custom date).

It's back to normal for me now. 20 Minutes ago it was a straight line down to 0 for March 31st, but only on the 90day view. Odd

James Bond

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Quote from: Ares on April 01, 2013, 01:18:40 AM

You don't see it at 0 when you go here?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q

I followed the link in the OP, then set the filter on the left to "past 90 days"

I see it dropping to zero for the last data point when I use your link. Instead I look at a graph that goes from June 2010 to March 2013 (custom date).

Ares

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Quote from: James Bond on April 01, 2013, 12:45:41 AM

Quote from: Ares on March 31, 2013, 11:50:39 PM

The google trend currently shows 0 when looking at the 90-day. I know it's a holiday weekend, but 0?

It works for me and it just surpassed its all-time peak last week. The previous peak was June 12-18, 2011.

You don't see it at 0 when you go here?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q

I followed the link in the OP, then set the filter on the left to "past 90 days"

James Bond

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Quote from: zeroday on April 01, 2013, 12:10:39 AM

Market depth graph shows that no crash can be expected in nearest days. Seems it will touch $100 very soon.

I remember it looked like the reverse of that before much of the recent runup.

James Bond

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Quote from: Ares on March 31, 2013, 11:50:39 PM

The google trend currently shows 0 when looking at the 90-day. I know it's a holiday weekend, but 0?

It works for me and it just surpassed its all-time peak last week. The previous peak was June 12-18, 2011.

zeroday

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Market depth graph shows that no crash can be expected in nearest days. Seems it will touch $100 very soon.

Ares

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The google trend currently shows 0 when looking at the 90-day. I know it's a holiday weekend, but 0?

James Bond

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Quote from: hgmichna on March 31, 2013, 12:18:36 PM

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

What's this base rate or base price you're talking about?

shsmith

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Thank you OP. It was helpful seeing this all collected in one place.

Topic: Here's how you can anticipate a coming crash/correction (Read 17391 times)