Here's how you can anticipate a coming crash/correction - page 2.

hgmichna

hero member

Activity: 695

Merit: 500

Quote from: phelix on March 31, 2013, 10:49:36 AM

word is the lag comes from them having to go through all the orders and check whether there is enough dough behind them. Tux wrote somewhere they will change it so that every order has to be backed, which should make the systems way faster. Hope they do this change soon.

But they don't have to go through all the orders. They only have to check whether an order is funded exactly once, when it is about to be executed. If it is not funded at that moment, it is deleted.

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

phelix

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1020

Quote from: hgmichna on March 31, 2013, 10:08:57 AM

Quote from: yuvadm on March 31, 2013, 07:49:18 AM

Trying to sell during the downfall is moot. We know gox trading engine can't handle the activity, and trying to put orders during peak trading results in severe losses.

Very true. Apparently many of the new speculators, who are driving the price up now, are not aware of this.

It is not a specialty of Mt. Gox. The big stock exchanges deliberately halt trading in tumultuous times. The only difference is that Mt. Gox effectively halts or severely slows down trading because they have designed their system such that it halts frequently even under moderate load. They do this although it exposes them to the suspicion of front-running during these frequent delay phases. A simple base price for each transaction, like every other online broking system has, would easily prevent this, but they have not done that.

But no matter why they do it, speculators should be aware that there is no quick trading here when things get just a little tougher.

word is the lag comes from them having to go through all the orders and check whether there is enough dough behind them. Tux wrote somewhere they will change it so that every order has to be backed, which should make the systems way faster. Hope they do this change soon.

hgmichna

hero member

Activity: 695

Merit: 500

Quote from: yuvadm on March 31, 2013, 07:49:18 AM

Trying to sell during the downfall is moot. We know gox trading engine can't handle the activity, and trying to put orders during peak trading results in severe losses.

Very true. Apparently many of the new speculators, who are driving the price up now, are not aware of this.

It is not a specialty of Mt. Gox. The big stock exchanges deliberately halt trading in tumultuous times. The only difference is that Mt. Gox effectively halts or severely slows down trading because they have designed their system such that it halts frequently even under moderate load. They do this although it exposes them to the suspicion of front-running during these frequent delay phases. A simple base price for each transaction, like every other online broking system has, would easily prevent this, but they have not done that.

But no matter why they do it, speculators should be aware that there is no quick trading here when things get just a little tougher.

Mushoz

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Bitbuy

Quote from: notme on March 30, 2013, 05:11:42 PM

Quote from: mobile4ever on March 30, 2013, 04:56:00 PM

Quote from: notme on March 30, 2013, 12:07:09 AM

Quote from: mobile4ever on March 29, 2013, 08:13:06 PM

Quote from: foo on March 29, 2013, 07:37:02 PM

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

Quote

The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.

Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

You just backed up his claim.

Quote

fell from $17 to pennies

No, here is it w/more details:

Quote

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online.

The fall in bitcoin value happened after:

Quote

Mt. Gox Exchange Collapses Due To Compromised...

Quote

Sunday, June 19th, 2011. Gox, collapsed thanks to a hacked account. The unknown hacker(s) made an enormous sale of bitcoins from the compromised account, causing the price of the currency to fall from $17.5 to just pennies in a matter of minutes.

Hacked first, then the price fell later - very quickly.

Check out June 20 through June 25th values of bitcoin at Mt Gox market here:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv

Its empty.

I watched it happen in 2011. You are wrong. You're looking at the date the article was published, not the date the hack occured.

Order:
1. Priced topped around 32
2. Price fell to around 17
3. MtGox hacked
4. Price fell to 0.01ish based on forged account balances
5. Trading halted
6. Vulnerabilities fixed
7. Every trade that happened after step 2 was reversed
8. Trading resumed

Believe what you want. You're allowed to be wrong.

I can confirm that this is the way it happened, I was following it when it happened.

yuvadm

newbie

Activity: 43

Merit: 0

How can you anticipate a coming crash correction? Take some coins off the table NOW, before the crash starts.

Trying to sell during the downfall is moot. We know gox trading engine can't handle the activity, and trying to put orders during peak trading results in severe losses.

mobile4ever

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: notme on March 30, 2013, 11:24:52 PM

That is correct. Those dates are between when the hack happened and when trading resumed. The price was already at $17 when the hack happened. That's why it reopened at that price. Look before the 20th. There was more than a week of trading between the peak and when trading halted. During this time price consolidated down to $17

Why does arsetechnica say the price dropped, "...to just pennies in a matter of minutes."?
If you cant answer, please say you cant answer.

Gordonium

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Only correction there will be is correction upwards. At the moment Bitcoin might be the most undervalued asset in the history of finance.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: mobile4ever on March 30, 2013, 09:24:42 PM

Quote from: notme on March 30, 2013, 05:11:42 PM

Believe what you want. You're allowed to be wrong.

It is good I am not wrong.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv

(Nothing between June 20 and June 25, 2011.)

That is correct. Those dates are between when the hack happened and when trading resumed. The price was already at $17 when the hack happened. That's why it reopened at that price. Look before the 20th. There was more than a week of trading between the peak and when trading halted. During this time price consolidated down to $17

mobile4ever

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: notme on March 30, 2013, 05:11:42 PM

Believe what you want. You're allowed to be wrong.

It is good I am not wrong.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv

(Nothing between June 20 and June 25, 2011.)

James Bond

member

Activity: 62

Merit: 10

I'd also add stats from this forum, both Alexa and stats the software produces, like users online.

James Bond

member

Activity: 62

Merit: 10

Thanks: a useful list with some sources I wasn't aware of.

I'd add:
- Google News number of results, though it doesn't give you data over time.
- Traffic results for bitcoin.it, the wiki, not just bitcoin.org.
- I refer to some other charts on BlockChain.info as well.

phelix

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1020

Quote from: notme on March 30, 2013, 05:11:42 PM

[...]

I watched it happen in 2011. You are wrong. You're looking at the date the article was published, not the date the hack occured.

Order:
1. Priced topped around 32
2. Price fell to around 17
3. MtGox hacked
4. Price fell to 0.01ish based on forged account balances
5. Trading halted
6. Vulnerabilities fixed
7. Every trade that happened after step 2 was reversed
8. Trading resumed

Believe what you want. You're allowed to be wrong.

this

Without the hack things would have gone differently...

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: mobile4ever on March 30, 2013, 04:56:00 PM

Quote from: notme on March 30, 2013, 12:07:09 AM

Quote from: mobile4ever on March 29, 2013, 08:13:06 PM

Quote from: foo on March 29, 2013, 07:37:02 PM

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

Quote

The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.

Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

You just backed up his claim.

Quote

fell from $17 to pennies

No, here is it w/more details:

Quote

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online.

The fall in bitcoin value happened after:

Quote

Mt. Gox Exchange Collapses Due To Compromised...

Quote

Sunday, June 19th, 2011. Gox, collapsed thanks to a hacked account. The unknown hacker(s) made an enormous sale of bitcoins from the compromised account, causing the price of the currency to fall from $17.5 to just pennies in a matter of minutes.

Hacked first, then the price fell later - very quickly.

Check out June 20 through June 25th values of bitcoin at Mt Gox market here:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv

Its empty.

I watched it happen in 2011. You are wrong. You're looking at the date the article was published, not the date the hack occured.

Order:
1. Priced topped around 32
2. Price fell to around 17
3. MtGox hacked
4. Price fell to 0.01ish based on forged account balances
5. Trading halted
6. Vulnerabilities fixed
7. Every trade that happened after step 2 was reversed
8. Trading resumed

Believe what you want. You're allowed to be wrong.

mobile4ever

hero member

Activity: 546

Merit: 500

Quote from: notme on March 30, 2013, 12:07:09 AM

Quote from: mobile4ever on March 29, 2013, 08:13:06 PM

Quote from: foo on March 29, 2013, 07:37:02 PM

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

Quote

The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.

Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

You just backed up his claim.

Quote

fell from $17 to pennies

No, here is it w/more details:

Quote

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online.

The fall in bitcoin value happened after:

Quote

Mt. Gox Exchange Collapses Due To Compromised...

Quote

Sunday, June 19th, 2011. Gox, collapsed thanks to a hacked account. The unknown hacker(s) made an enormous sale of bitcoins from the compromised account, causing the price of the currency to fall from $17.5 to just pennies in a matter of minutes.

Hacked first, then the price fell later - very quickly.

Check out June 20 through June 25th values of bitcoin at Mt Gox market here:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv

Its empty.

Jaagu

member

Activity: 62

Merit: 10

I would refer to http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/ too.

phelix

legendary

Activity: 1708

Merit: 1020

Nice list.

Please note some of these links are on http://blockchained.com too.

I will add the others asap.

Adrian-x

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 1000

Very nice snake oil,
Than you it even works as an antidepressant

Adrian-x

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 1000

Quote from: foo on March 29, 2013, 07:37:02 PM

Quote from: bootlace on March 29, 2013, 01:46:08 PM

Quote from: bg002h on March 29, 2013, 12:48:43 PM

Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

Crash to $17

Ares

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Great post, OP.

randrace

sr. member

Activity: 329

Merit: 250

LTC -> BTC -> Silver!

This is great info, OP; thanks!

Topic: Here's how you can anticipate a coming crash/correction - page 2. (Read 17401 times)