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Topic: Here's how you can anticipate a coming crash/correction - page 3. (Read 17391 times)

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

Quote
The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.


Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

You just backed up his claim. 
Quote
fell from $17 to pennies

If that's what you intended, good job.  Tough to say since the only nonquoted text in your post is "link".
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
This isn't speculation.  It's perfectly reasonable to look for "metrics" to predict bitcoin's moves.

Someone elsewhere mentioned the backlog of Mt Gox customers that are waiting to get verified, which I would love to know.  But I don't know how anyone could know that short of working there.

Well, I can't tell you how they know, but I just sent in my verification request a week ago, and when I first did I was behind 4500 people in line. It says right on your account page once you request verification.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

Quote
The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.


Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/
full member
Activity: 143
Merit: 100
Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

This, and the following 6  months of decline  can hardly be called a crash. Crashes don't take 6 months, Bear markets/corrections do. That was just a major wave-2, kind of like the major wave-4 decline that is inevitably to come.

Also, the use of client downloads as an indicator of adoption doesn't tell much when every new release is DL'd by the whole community. On top of that I have it on 4 different computers. On top of that, when a major flaw happens, requiring a patch/rewrite, then requiring us to DL the latest client or our blockchains will no longer be recognized by the network, that is a lot of downloads by the same people. I've personally DL'd 6 different client versions, on four different computers...So that's 24 DL's from one person. I'm sure others have done the same too.

And finally,Just like difficulty following price, so do new users. Where there is easy money to be made, there will be people there to sop it up. Don't think for a second that ALL these new users are here because they want to see Bitcoin succeed. They couldn't give a fuck less. They just want a get rich quick scheme that works, and they will leave just like many of the old users from the first "over-expansion" (Wink ) did
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Interesting graphs. Thanks for posting!
foo
sr. member
Activity: 409
Merit: 250
Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
DigiByte Founder
It would be interesting to take this data and further divide it into geographic regions. I would me mostly interested in search trends, links etc from Europe in the past two weeks so see how much capital is going to be dumped into BTC by EU residents in the next two weeks.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest, so this analysis is not suitable for those types of unexpected events.


You are right:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/


Which is why the bad folks can still control the price of bitcoin, since if they have big hacking abilities, those same evil abilities can be a biiiig temptation. Only they will know when the right time is to sell, thanks to centralized bitcoin markets.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
Bitcoin price is a google trends predictor.
legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1010
But I don't know how anyone could know that short of working there.

Periodically a number will be shared on the #mtgox irc channel.

7,700 was the number given within the past 24 hours.
full member
Activity: 364
Merit: 100
Justice as a Service Infrastructure
This should be in the Speculation/Snake Oil subforum

Data points from 8 different sources are "snake oil" now? Factors affecting Bitcoin value is related to 1) its usefulness and 2) how much demand there is - the data points aims to analyze the second factor in an objective and measurable fashion.

The snake oil comes in because the correlations are dubious.

Visits on a website are not indicators of demand, the amount of tweets neither. Interest, yes. Not at all the same thing.



I would argue that at this point in Bitcoin's life-cycle, new demand is directly correlated with interest. Perhaps 0.01% (made up number) of anyone who hears about Bitcoin decides to try it out, so an increase in the amount of people who hear about it does in fact convert to demand pretty reliably - this is the premise by which online advertisement works as well (conversion rates etc).

Snake oil has connotations of trying to trick someone or being fraudulent, it is rather upsetting to be labeled as such when I spent time and effort trying to provide some value to the community. If I was trying to trick people I would have not advised people to hold, because I'm personally looking to buy.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Now they are thinking what to do with me
[qoute]Disclaimer: I'm no financial adviser and hold no position in Bitcoin. Other unexpected factors could lead to a crash or correction so please act with caution and do your own research.[/qoute]

This bit.

People should look into the political aspect of things globally, and obviously keeping on track of new business ventures and whats coming the corner. That will give you a clearer idea of what to expect.

full member
Activity: 364
Merit: 100
Justice as a Service Infrastructure
Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest, so this analysis is not suitable for those types of unexpected events. (although here's the graph if you wish to take a look at it regardless http://i.imgur.com/cz1ETwj.png?1)

I believe at this stage a lot of the price surge can be attributed to people expecting (and already factoring in) further demand increases as the Cyprus situation spreads to other countries. I'm saying this because Bitcoin has not warranted a rise to $90+ based on its 'usefulness' aka new businesses accepting it. If this run up had come on the heels of multiple major businesses accepting Bitcoin and not the Cyprus situation, then a different analysis would be required.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
This isn't speculation.  It's perfectly reasonable to look for "metrics" to predict bitcoin's moves.

Someone elsewhere mentioned the backlog of Mt Gox customers that are waiting to get verified, which I would love to know.  But I don't know how anyone could know that short of working there.
newbie
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
Very nice compilation, thanks for putting this together. I would love to see some kind of "normalized index" that crunches all this data into one single number.
donator
Activity: 1464
Merit: 1047
I outlived my lifetime membership:)
Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
If you have an alternative link to replace the Google trends link, they require an account to see their data.

Good info though, and thanks for revealing this.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
Win post. Speculation and /r/Bitcoin will love this.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
I for one thank the OP for the work he put into this thread.

It is interesting to have in a quantitative manner what is going on with user interest.
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