Hey Pirate, it's Monday....WHERE ARE MY BITCOINS ? - page 2.

Gyrsur

legendary

Activity: 2856

Merit: 1520

Bitcoin Legal Tender Countries: 2 of 206

Quote from: hgmichna on August 22, 2012, 10:06:53 AM

Quote from: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 08:42:46 AM

No. I've not seen anyone say Pirate was USD rich.

Now you do. I'm saying it. I believe I've said it before, in the form that I believe he has been selling "his" bitcoins already over a longer period of time.

By the way, this also makes it difficult to predict the bitcoin valuation over the next few days and weeks. Some people were speculating that the pirate would sell bitcoins and thus depress the price, but this will not happen.

Of course, those who mistakenly believe they will get their bitcoins back will believe that the bitcoin price will fall, because at least some of the "investors" would sell their newly gained bitcoins. But this is a fairy tale.

+10

hgmichna

hero member

Activity: 695

Merit: 500

Quote from: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 08:42:46 AM

No. I've not seen anyone say Pirate was USD rich.

Now you do. I'm saying it. I believe I've said it before, in the form that I believe he has been selling "his" bitcoins already over a longer period of time.

By the way, this also makes it difficult to predict the bitcoin valuation over the next few days and weeks. Some people were speculating that the pirate would sell bitcoins and thus depress the price, but this will not happen.

Of course, those who mistakenly believe they will get their bitcoins back will believe that the bitcoin price will fall, because at least some of the "investors" would sell their newly gained bitcoins. But this is a fairy tale.

thebaron

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: wormbog on August 22, 2012, 08:37:40 AM

Also, pirates are not generally known for running legitimate businesses.

All the signs were there, yet people still could not overcome their greed.

Gyrsur

legendary

Activity: 2856

Merit: 1520

Bitcoin Legal Tender Countries: 2 of 206

Quote from: gene on August 22, 2012, 09:14:00 AM

Quote from: ribuck on August 22, 2012, 08:28:10 AM

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 06:02:49 AM

First, your scenario can't avoid a technical default, since he already *has* technically defaulted.

Agreed. Pirate actually defaulted on Monday.

But in the terms of his bet with Vandroiy he has two weeks grace. And in the terms of Matthew's bet he has three weeks grace.

I can't wait to see how the "terms" of those bets will morph.

i smell big trouble...

gene

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: ribuck on August 22, 2012, 08:28:10 AM

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 06:02:49 AM

First, your scenario can't avoid a technical default, since he already *has* technically defaulted.

Agreed. Pirate actually defaulted on Monday.

But in the terms of his bet with Vandroiy he has two weeks grace. And in the terms of Matthew's bet he has three weeks grace.

I can't wait to see how the "terms" of those bets will morph.

mobodick

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 08:40:03 AM

Quote from: wormbog on August 22, 2012, 08:37:40 AM

Also, pirates are not generally known for running legitimate businesses.

If we were to be judged based only on our forum nicks, you'd already be at an extreme disadvantage.

AT THE SAME TIME not judging by name at all puts you in a similar kind of disadvantage.

JoelKatz

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1012

Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: softwareseller on August 22, 2012, 08:01:34 AM

Yes. But he has incentive to pay ppl back if it's legit bussiness

Not really. If he pays people back X bitcoins, he has X bitcoins fewer than if he doesn't pay people back. That's true regardless of how he acquired those bitcoins. If he can get away with not paying people back, his incentive not to pay them back is the same. (Of course, if he doesn't have the bitcoins, paying people back is not an option.)

The point I'm trying to make is that even if you don't think Pirate was running a ponzi scheme and think we actually made huge profits, it doesn't follow that he'll make the promised payouts. He could still default, and for basically the same reason.

imsaguy

vip

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.

Quote from: Grinder on August 22, 2012, 08:40:54 AM

Quote from: Bascule on August 22, 2012, 08:18:24 AM

NO LEGIT BUSINESS BORROWS AT 7% PER WEEK

According to this message "Everyone on the pro-pirate team says he is pretty rich in USD anyway so he can take some BTC losses or W/E". Is that really true?

No. I've not seen anyone say Pirate was USD rich.

Grinder

legendary

Activity: 1284

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Bascule on August 22, 2012, 08:18:24 AM

NO LEGIT BUSINESS BORROWS AT 7% PER WEEK

According to this message "Everyone on the pro-pirate team says he is pretty rich in USD anyway so he can take some BTC losses or W/E". Is that really true? Then why do they think he would pay a fortune to borrow other peoples money? It's kind of amusing that we're on the 3. day after he should have started paying, and some people still believe they'll get the money. He would have to do some pretty cleaver tricks to get out of this, the only thing I'm certain is that it does not involve paying 300k+ bitcoins.

imsaguy

vip

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.

Quote from: wormbog on August 22, 2012, 08:37:40 AM

Also, pirates are not generally known for running legitimate businesses.

If we were to be judged based only on our forum nicks, you'd already be at an extreme disadvantage.

wormbog

hero member

Activity: 561

Merit: 500

Quote from: Bascule on August 22, 2012, 08:18:24 AM

Quote from: softwareseller on August 22, 2012, 08:01:34 AM

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 07:52:00 AM

Quote from: muyuu on August 22, 2012, 06:09:55 AM

LOL. IKR, running away with people's money is extremely lucrative.

Essentially, Pirate can pay everyone back or he can run off with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. This is pretty much the way it is regardless of whether Pirate was running a ponzi scheme or not.

Yes. But he has incentive to pay ppl back if it's legit bussiness

NO LEGIT BUSINESS BORROWS AT 7% PER WEEK

Also, pirates are not generally known for running legitimate businesses.

ribuck

donator

Activity: 826

Merit: 1060

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 06:02:49 AM

First, your scenario can't avoid a technical default, since he already *has* technically defaulted.

Agreed. Pirate actually defaulted on Monday.

But in the terms of his bet with Vandroiy he has two weeks grace. And in the terms of Matthew's bet he has three weeks grace.

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 06:02:49 AM

In your scenario, Pirate winds up with about 50,000 BTC. In mine, he winds up with 325,000 BTC.

Agreed. If pirate's aim is to end up with as many BTC as possible, your scenario makes sense. But if his aim is to end up with a substantial profit, yet still be able to claim to have repaid all the loans, my scenario could do it (at the extremes of possibility, admittedly).

makomk

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 564

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 07:52:00 AM

Essentially, Pirate can pay everyone back or he can run off with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. This is pretty much the way it is regardless of whether Pirate was running a ponzi scheme or not.

Of course, if he's running a ponzi scheme he almost certainly doesn't have the option to pay everyone back because he doesn't have enough funds. His only options are to carry it on to the bitter end and default without making any money or to default before he's exhausted his reserves and run away with the rest.

Vladimir

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1001

-

Quote from: Bascule on August 22, 2012, 08:18:24 AM

Quote from: softwareseller on August 22, 2012, 08:01:34 AM

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 07:52:00 AM

Quote from: muyuu on August 22, 2012, 06:09:55 AM

LOL. IKR, running away with people's money is extremely lucrative.

Essentially, Pirate can pay everyone back or he can run off with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. This is pretty much the way it is regardless of whether Pirate was running a ponzi scheme or not.

Yes. But he has incentive to pay ppl back if it's legit bussiness

NO LEGIT BUSINESS BORROWS AT 7% PER WEEK

Now after saying such a banality here, prepare to furnish beyond reasonable doubt proof of your words. (That how it works on this forum)

Bascule

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: softwareseller on August 22, 2012, 08:01:34 AM

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 07:52:00 AM

Quote from: muyuu on August 22, 2012, 06:09:55 AM

LOL. IKR, running away with people's money is extremely lucrative.

Essentially, Pirate can pay everyone back or he can run off with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. This is pretty much the way it is regardless of whether Pirate was running a ponzi scheme or not.

Yes. But he has incentive to pay ppl back if it's legit bussiness

NO LEGIT BUSINESS BORROWS AT 7% PER WEEK

softwareseller

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 07:52:00 AM

Quote from: muyuu on August 22, 2012, 06:09:55 AM

LOL. IKR, running away with people's money is extremely lucrative.

Essentially, Pirate can pay everyone back or he can run off with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. This is pretty much the way it is regardless of whether Pirate was running a ponzi scheme or not.

Yes. But he has incentive to pay ppl back if it's legit bussiness

JoelKatz

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1012

Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: muyuu on August 22, 2012, 06:09:55 AM

LOL. IKR, running away with people's money is extremely lucrative.

Essentially, Pirate can pay everyone back or he can run off with somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. This is pretty much the way it is regardless of whether Pirate was running a ponzi scheme or not.

anfedorov

newbie

Activity: 44

Merit: 0

Quote from: Shadow383 on August 22, 2012, 04:00:59 AM

Quote from: anfedorov on August 22, 2012, 02:37:37 AM

His OTC ratings might be a good place to figure out how "real" he is, also... would any of the people who claimed to trade with him over PayPal be willing to reveal the email he used? Are they real people, or part of the ruse?

That's a good call.
But, "Trendon Shavers" seems a likely figure to be pirate, and the photos we have of him (via facebook) match the one from vegas.

Could very well be fake but usually when I come up with a fake ID I don't give it a criminal record for check fraud.

Ah, OK, I actually hadn't gotten a chance to read up on the threads behind that name. Now that I have (and did a bit more Googling), everything does seem to add up. I almost feel bad for him - I hope this is a temporary delay and doesn't end up in court.

There is also the possibility that whoever's behind pirateat40 is impersonating Trendon, but that does seem somewhat unlikely.

muyuu

donator

Activity: 980

Merit: 1000

Quote from: JoelKatz on August 22, 2012, 06:02:49 AM

5. Suppose Pirate doesn't pay back anything.
6. Pirate now has 150,000 + 25,000 + 150,000 = 325,000 BTC.
7. Pirate has technically defaulted, but he also has a *lot* more money than in your scenario.

In your scenario, Pirate winds up with about 50,000 BTC. In mine, he winds up with 325,000 BTC. Plus, my numbers are more realistic than yours. It's definitely in Pirate's interest to sell Pirate obligations.

LOL. IKR, running away with people's money is extremely lucrative.

Matthew N. Wright

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet

Quote from: mobodick on August 22, 2012, 04:31:20 AM

Quote from: Gyrsur on August 22, 2012, 04:18:24 AM

Quote from: Vladimir on August 22, 2012, 04:15:31 AM

Quote from: Gyrsur on August 22, 2012, 04:12:12 AM

In forex it is possible to earn 1-2% daily interest if you are a very good daytrader.

That is a myth perpetuated to lure in fresh meat that is required to feed the brokers. (coz those who were lured in earlier are chewed and thrown out by now).

It is true! Ask Maria... Grin

Yeah, what happened to maria?
She used to be so vocal on the forums but i somehow lost track of what went on.

Banned. With a vengeance.

Topic: Hey Pirate, it's Monday....WHERE ARE MY BITCOINS ? - page 2. (Read 33164 times)