Topic: Hey Pirate, it's Monday....WHERE ARE MY BITCOINS ? - page 3. (Read 33164 times)

First, your scenario can't avoid a technical default, since he already *has* technically defaulted. There is at least one 100% documented payment he has missed and there's no evidence the repayments that were supposed to start have started.

Also, do you think that's better for Pirate than this scenario in which he sells:

1. Suppose Pirate has taken 50,000 BTC in direct loans, and 200,000 BTC via passthroughs but also holds 300,000 in passthroughs himself. (These are almost totally free for him to buy, the money just flows back to him.)
2. Suppose Pirate, after paying weekly interest still has 150,000 BTC in his wallet.
3. Suppose pirate doesn't pay back the direct loans, leaving him with 150,000 BTC. But he also sells 50,000 worth of direct loans that don't actually exist at 50% of face value, netting him an additional 25,000 BTC.
4. Suppose Pirate sells all his passthrough shares himself at 50% of face value, netting an additional 150,000 BTC for him.
5. Suppose Pirate doesn't pay back anything.
6. Pirate now has 150,000 + 25,000 + 150,000 = 325,000 BTC.
7. Pirate has technically defaulted, but he also has a *lot* more money than in your scenario.

In your scenario, Pirate winds up with about 50,000 BTC. In mine, he winds up with 325,000 BTC. And we both start with him in the same position (except in my scenario, he has been buying his own pass throughs for awhile now, which is certainly possible). My number for the discount on Pirate debt is more realistic than yours (50% versus 90%). It's definitely in Pirate's interest to *sell* Pirate obligations.

As I said above, this can only happen if Pirate had the BTC funds to refund everybody but still decided not to do so in time. He cannot buy his own debt in BTC and remain solvent in BTC to do refunds, unless he had an excess of BTC in the first place. This alone cannot work.

If he pulls that, props to him. That would mean he played insolvent and fooled a lot of people to great profit. I wouldn't bet on it though.

I am concerned this could happen.  This could be pulled off more easily if pirate colluded with some of his top supporters (BurtWagner, imsaguy etc)  Has anyone seen any suspicious  purchases of pirate debt?

No, I don't think so. Buying his debt at discount is one way he could actually avoid technically defaulting. For example (using exaggerated numbers to make the math easier):

1. Suppose pirate has taken 50,000 BTC in direct loans, and 500,000 BTC via passthroughs.
2. Suppose pirate, after paying weekly interest, still has 150,000 BTC in his bitcoin wallet.
3. Suppose pirate pays back the direct loans, leaving him with 100,000 BTC.
3. Suppose the passthrough shares are being sold for 10% of their face value.
4. Suppose pirate buys all the passthrough shares for 50,000 BTC, leaving him with 50,000 BTC.
5. Suppose pirate pays back the passthroughs, 50,000 BTC at a time.
6. The coins pass through, back to pirate, who then pays back the next tranche of 50,000 BTC.
7. Repeat ten times, and pirate has technically not defaulted (although he has screwed those who sold their passthrough shares at 10% of their face value).

Sure, there are a lot of suppositions and extreme figures above. But something like this is not impossible.

Aah, same old, same old.
Shouting from her ivory tower..

you can still setup your trading environment with her to improve your trading skills.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/liberty-reserve-trading-and-btc-with-maria-no-trolls-96059

Yeah, what happened to maria?
She used to be so vocal on the forums but i somehow lost track of what went on.

It is true! Ask Maria... 

He has much more incentive to sell his debt than to buy it.

That is a myth perpetuated to lure in fresh meat that is required to feed the brokers. (coz those who were lured in earlier are chewed and thrown out by now).

I'm not into that market but wouldn't he need BTC to pull that out?

That would be an scheme to make more profit, in case he had enough coins already to pay his debt. If that's the case, props to him.

I can also imagine where the figure 7 (percent interest) are coming form. In forex it is possible to earn 1-2% daily interest if you are a very good daytrader. Let us assume he will pay out a interest of 1% per day. Then it is not 5% a week like in forex (So/Mo to Fr), it is 7% a week with bitcoin (Mo to So).

At this point another major way would be to buy back his own devalued debt: FOO.PPPPT "bonds" are on sale at less than 50% of nominal price, and many PPT holders are selling at a discount (which will grow by the hour as the panic level rises).

That's a good call.
But, "Trendon Shavers" seems a likely figure to be pirate, and the photos we have of him (via facebook) match the one from vegas.

Could very well be fake but usually when I come up with a fake ID I don't give it a criminal record for check fraud.

Hope you get your BTC back.

That's stupid. It's a multi-million dollar ponzi scheme, not a middle eastern revolution

He's either a little short or very short. But he's delaying his payments and increasing his debt to the tune of 7% a week. "A little short" considering the total amount is most likely still in the thousands or tens of thousands. Whether he plans to make this money mainly through trading, or through GPUmax or though other businesses, or though a combination of things, remains to be seen. Looking at the valuation graph I'd say he's trying to play the market, but too many people are looking to load up coins. We will see where this is going within 10 days tops.

I was on IRC and his manner is like a typical daytrader which think he found out the holy grail of trading. I assume it is very likely he is a daytrader with a forex history.

You dont know that, and its very unlikely. But if indeed Pirate doesnt have most of the coins he owes, he and his investors are in deep trouble. Good luck trying to buy 10s or 100s of 1000s of coins without BTC exchange rate shooting through the roof.

Moreover, whatever pirate is doing, and assuming its not a ponzi/scam, if he needs to trade btc for $ or vice versa, it would be in his interest not to say if he is long or short on coins and in fact give the opposite impression. Just saying he needs to buy 100K BTC would cause a huge price increase. Likewise, if he plans to sell out, he would most likely say or imply the opposite to ensure a better price for his coins.

To think Pirate is just showing you his cards is naive, or assuming Pirate is naive.