Topic: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services. - page 17. (Read 6450 times)

Date : 8th May 2023.

Market Update – May 8 – Sentiment Firming; A Cooler USD & Rising Stocks.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD continues under pressure (USDIndex 100.88) after a monumental week saw the FED & ECB’s 25 bp hikes (could it be the last from the FED?), another US bank failure, a jobs report beat, (253k vs 181k) and better than expected earnings, especially, from the biggest of all companies – Apple.  Stocks rallied on Friday, and have followed through in Asia today, Yields cooled again with the AUD and NZD outperforming. The UK and France are closed on quiet data day. Berkshire Hathaway announced $35.5bn profits   
Week Ahead Topped by US CPI data (Wednesday) and the BOE Rate Decision (Thursday).

*FX–USDIndex continues to be biased lower, from 101.50 highs on Friday back to test support from last week at 100.88, EUR tested 1.0970 lows on Friday but recovered 1.1000 to trade at 1.1033 now. JPY rallied from 134.00, breached 135.00 but trades at 134.70 now. Sterling holds over the key break of  1.2500 last week, breached 1.2600 on Friday and is testing 1.2650 now.
*Stocks-US markets closed strongly (+1.65% to 2.25%) (#APPL +4.69%%,  #TSLA +5.50%) – US500 closed +1.65% 4136, FUTS are trading at 4147 today and still below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures hold onto Friday gains and trade at $71.70 as recession fears still swirl, but up from the breach of the 18-mth low at $64.00 last week. Gold – tested back into $2000 on Friday, but is up to $2020 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC has tumbled over 5% from Friday highs over $29.6k to test  $28.0k once again, today.

Today – German Industrial Output (missed -3.4% vs +2.1%) , EZ Sentix, Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, NY SCE, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Speech from ECB’s Lane, Earnings from PayPal.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.29%). Continued to gain from Friday’s rally from 0.6700 to 0.6780 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but flat, RSI 72.45, OB but also flat, H1 ATR 0.00096 Daily ATR 0.00621.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th May 2023.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Even if some of the Central Banks chaos are out of the way for now, jitters over regional banks continued to spread with PacWest, First Horizon, hit hard Western Alliance. Inflation concerns and central bankers speeches are expected to dominate next week. Focal points will be the BOE rate decision and US Inflation.


Monday – 08 May 2023
BOJ Minutes (USD, GMT 23:50) – The BOJ minutes should provide guidance on the pace for further accomodative policy.

Tuesday – 09 May 2023
Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00) – Chinese Trade Balance for April is expected to grow by 74.30 bln from 88.19 bln.

Wednesday – 10 May 2023

Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US inflation figures are forecasted to grow by 0.4% for the headline and 0.3% for the core in April, after respective March gains of 0.1% and 0.4%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to climb 2% in April. We expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices through 2023 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected March CPI figures would result in a steady y/y headline rise from 5.0%in March, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. We expect the core y/y gain to slow to 5.4% from 5.6% in March, versus a 40-year high of 6.6% in September.

Thursday – 11 May 2023

Consumer Price Inflation (CNY, GMT 01:30)  Chinese inflation as measured by CPI is expected to rise y/y from 0.7% to 1.0%. Producer Price Index y/y is likely to decrease to -2.5%.
Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – Markets speculate that the BoE will be forced to continue hiking rates for longer than ECB and Fed. Markets are speculating that the Fed may be forced to start to cut rates in the second half of the year, while the ECB is expected to deliver two more rate hikes, which means peak rates are coming into sight. The BoE is also set to hike again next week and given that inflation remains in double digits, it will likely keep the door open to additional tightening steps, with markets seeing further hikes down the line.
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The April PPI could gain of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, after respective figures of -0.5% and -0.1% in March. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 2.5% from 3.2%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March of 2022. We expect the y/y core measure to fall to 3.2% from 3.4%, versus an all-time high 9.7% in March of 2022. The y/y calculation should fall sharply through mid-2023 as comparisons become much easier.

Friday – 12 May 2023

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP for Q1 is expected at -0.% y/y and headline at 0.5% q/q.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th May 2023.

Market Update – May 4 – Renewed Anxiety.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Japan and China bourses were closed for holidays and elsewhere markets were still rattled by the drop in Wall Street and fresh jitters at US regional banks. Asian stocks declined while US futures steadied on Wednesday as markets wait for the Fed announcement. Lingering concern over the health of the financial system should add to the arguments of the cautious camps at central banks, but policy sensitive short term bonds are underperforming this morning. Treasuries are holding a strong haven bid on worries over the regional banking sector. The sentiment is mixed by recent data suggesting an economic slowdown, including the lowest number of job openings in almost two years.

FOMC Preview: FOMC began its 2-day meeting and will announce its policy decision Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. A 25 bp increase is well anticipated. With no new SEP forecasts to guide the outlook, the focus will be on the policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. We do not expect any explicit forward guidance as the Fed will want to maintain optionality and leave all doors open. However, we do look for him to continue to push back against rate cut expectations. Implied Fed funds futures have slid lower, along with the drop in Treasury yields, amid heightened concerns over regional banks, and after weaker than expected data.

*FX – USDIndex has corrected to 101.30 while the Yen is picking up haven bids. The EURUSD is also back above the 1.103 mark ahead of the Fed announcement today and the ECB meeting tomorrow.
*Stocks – Hang Seng and ASX lost -1.7% and -0.96% respectively, although European and US Futures are higher. The US500 lost -1.16% while the US30 and US100 declined –1.08%. Jitters increased even after JPMorgan’s purchase of beleaguered First Republic Bank provided some stability Monday. But that did not hold as PacWest and Western Alliance were in the spotlight, dropping -42% and -27%, respectively, on investor angst. That saw the KBW bank index drop -4.4%. Nearly every sector in S&P was in the red.



*Commodities – USOil plunged by -5% to $71.50 as markets priced in expectations for interest rate hikes in the US and Europe and waited for clarity on future policy path.
*Gold – Spiked to $2018.

Today - US ADP, ISM Services and Fed announcement.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-5%) drifted to 71.29 from 76 area. MAs flattened but MACD histogram & signal line are way below 0, Stochastics is slipping. ATR(H1) at 0.20 & ATR(D) at 2.26.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd May 2023.

Market Update – May 3 – Eyes on Fed.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Japan and China bourses were closed for holidays and elsewhere markets were still rattled by the drop in Wall Street and fresh jitters at US regional banks. Asian stocks declined while US futures steadied on Wednesday as markets wait for the Fed announcement. Lingering concern over the health of the financial system should add to the arguments of the cautious camps at central banks, but policy sensitive short term bonds are underperforming this morning. Treasuries are holding a strong haven bid on worries over the regional banking sector. The sentiment is mixed by recent data suggesting an economic slowdown, including the lowest number of job openings in almost two years.

FOMC Preview: FOMC began its 2-day meeting and will announce its policy decision Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. A 25 bp increase is well anticipated. With no new SEP forecasts to guide the outlook, the focus will be on the policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. We do not expect any explicit forward guidance as the Fed will want to maintain optionality and leave all doors open. However, we do look for him to continue to push back against rate cut expectations. Implied Fed funds futures have slid lower, along with the drop in Treasury yields, amid heightened concerns over regional banks, and after weaker than expected data.

*FX – USDIndex has corrected to 101.30 while the Yen is picking up haven bids. The EURUSD is also back above the 1.103 mark ahead of the Fed announcement today and the ECB meeting tomorrow.
*Stocks – Hang Seng and ASX lost -1.7% and -0.96% respectively, although European and US Futures are higher. The US500 lost -1.16% while the US30 and US100 declined –1.08%. Jitters increased even after JPMorgan’s purchase of beleaguered First Republic Bank provided some stability Monday. But that did not hold as PacWest and Western Alliance were in the spotlight, dropping -42% and -27%, respectively, on investor angst. That saw the KBW bank index drop -4.4%. Nearly every sector in S&P was in the red.



*Commodities – USOil plunged by -5% to $71.50 as markets priced in expectations for interest rate hikes in the US and Europe and waited for clarity on future policy path.
*Gold – Spiked to $2018.

Today - US ADP, ISM Services and Fed announcement.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-5%) drifted to 71.29 from 76 area. MAs flattened but MACD histogram & signal line are way below 0, Stochastics is slipping. ATR(H1) at 0.20 & ATR(D) at 2.26.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd May 2023.

Market Update – May 2 -RBA down! FED & ECB to go!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

May kicked off with another bank failure, the fourth in two months, as First Republic Bank (FRC) was seized by the FDIC, after which the assets were purchased by JPMorgan Chase. FRC became the second largest bank in US history to go under, ignominiously taking over that mantle from SVB. Morgan Stanley plans to cut 3,000 jobs due to a dealmaking slowdown by the end of June. RBA hiked its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.850%, surprising many forecasters expecting a third straight pause.
Treasury yields closed sharply higher on inflation data and a pick up in Fed fears, a hefty corporate calendar, and upward revisions to Q2 borrowing estimates. US manufacturing sector enters longest contractionary streak since 2009. Stock markets remain choppy in search of direction.

*FX – USDIndex kicked 102.03 in the morning but currently turned lower. USDJPY keep extending gains for the 4th day to 137.70, amid market uncertainty.
*Stocks – The US30 lost -0.14%, while the US500 and US100 were -0.04% and -0.11% lower, respectively. The Nikkei and Hang Seng managed slight gains. #Amazon -3.22%, #Tesla -1.35%, #JPM +2.14%, #Meta +1.19%.



*Commodities – USOil fell to $74.35 as weak economic data from China and expectations of a US interest rate increase weigh on the market.
*Gold – at $1983 after tumbling to $1979 from $2007 yesterday.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC down to $2774.

Today - EU HICP and US Factory orders.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+1.09%) spiked by more than 85 pips the past 2 hours. MAs keep rising, MACD histogram & signal line rising, Stochastics at 95 and points higher, all indicating further nearterm positive bias.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st May 2023.

Market Update – May 1 – Bullish End & Bullish Start?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It was a very bullish end to April with Treasuries and Wall Street ending in the green on the month. Better than expected earnings news from most of big tech, and data reflecting a still resilient economy helped propel the major indexes higher.

Today, USD to the upside, extending to 101.60. Wall Street is firmer in spite of upcoming Fed hike, while all the attention is on First Republic. The Wall Street Journal reported that: “Federal regulators were poised to seize the First Republic Bank (-43.34% Friday) and sell it to a larger lender.  JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Citizens Financial Group (CFG) and US Bancorp (USB) were also reportedly invited for bidding” –  this would mark the third US bank failure this year. China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in April.

*FX – USDIndex rose to a high of 101.60. USDJPY keep extending gains to 136.98, amid market uncertainty and on the BoJ’s commitment to an uber-accommodative stance.
*Stocks – The US500 up at +0.13% to 4193.75, the US30 muted to 34209 and US100 +0.27% at 13356.



*Commodities – USOil falls to $75.80 after data from China reignited concerns about a patchy recovery in the world’s biggest crude importer.
*Gold – at $1979.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC has slipped back to $28173 from $30K highs.

Today - US ISM Manufacturing PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.88%) a breath below 91.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising, Stochastics at 93 and flattened.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th April 2023.

Market Update – April 28 – End of the Month Moves.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD boosted to 101.50. More strong earnings reports from big tech boosted Wall Street with US100 advancing 2.43%. Treasury yields also climbed on a more hawkish view on the FOMC’s trajectory after an acceleration in core PCE inflation.  Good news from Amazon added to that from Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft and more than countered ongoing concerns over regional banks. In Japan, Kazuo Ueda announced a comprehensive policy review in his first policy board meeting as Bank of Japan governor but held off from changing its ultra-loose monetary stance. BoJ’s Ueda ready to add to easing if needed, sees bigger risk from premature tightening and he called for broad policy review; left rate at -0.1% and YCC unchanged.

*FX – USDIndex rose to a high of 101.80, but lost most of its gains and finished at 101.50. USDJPY spiked to 135.75.  The 50 minute delay in the announcement versus the average time saw JPY turn jumpy and USDJPY slipped to the lows before the headlines hit.
*Stocks – The US500 surged 1.96% & the US30 was up 1.57%. #Amazon up 4.6% posted $3.2 billion profit as it goes through multiple rounds of layoffs. The cost cuts and surprisingly strong sales in the cloud-computing division helped the e-commerce giant weather an uncertain economy. #DeutscheBank +2.54% has agreed to buy Numis in a deal that values the UK broker at £410mn, the two companies announced on Friday. #META +14%. #Natwest +2.01% profits increased by a better than expected almost 50%. #Tesla +4.19%.



*Commodities – USOil eased a bit at $75.40.
*Gold – has slipped to $1979 per oz from $2003.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC flattened at $29750 from $26K lows.

Today - Q1 Eurozone GDP, CPI figures in France, Germany and Spain, UK Nationwide housing prices data & Earnings: Chevron, NatWest, Electrolux, Eni and Smurfit Kappa.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+1.29%) up to 135.75. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising, Stochastics at 89 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th April 2023.

Market Update – April 27 – Technology Bid, Banks remain a worry.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD steadied lower at close to 101. Risk appetite improved, amid positive signs in earnings reports. Wall Street finished mixed but near the lows of the day, while US100 managed a modest gain asbetter than expected results from META and robust results from European banks helped to counterbalance lingering jitters at some US banks. Asia stocks all moved higher overnight. GER40 & UK100 are in the red though, as hawkish central bank comments suggest further rate hikes next month. Yields have moved higher overnight. The curve steepened to -49 bps from -55 bps Tuesday and -60 bps Monday. This is the least inverted since April 5.
*FX – USDIndex at 101 as EUR and GBP rise slightly. But JPY held below 134.
*Stocks – #DeutscheBank up 3.5% pre-market, as reported highest pre-tax profit in a decade on strong inflows. #Barclays +1.58% profit rises 27% on back of rising interest rates. #Meta +11.61% after hours, as it reported its first increase in sales in nearly a year due to continued improvements in its advertising business, as the company continues to pare back spending during what Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has called a “year of efficiency.” #AstraZeneca beats forecasts as cancer drugs sales pick up.



*Commodities – USOil drifted, falling under $75 per barrel and now down -3.56% to fresh intraday lows of $74.33. The EIA reported a -5.1 mln barrel drop in oil inventories which boosted prices, but only temporarily. Angst over a recession is building again amid concerns over regional banks and tightening credit conditions. And even though the markets are pricing in the end of Fed rate hikes after next month’s 25 bp hike, upcoming data on Q1 GDP and ECI may not give the FOMC the opportunity to pause, and that is adding to the threat of a slowing/contracting economy. There are also concerns over the strength of China’s recovery. Concurrently, Russian supplies are reportedly hitting the market via Asian ports. Additionally, Bloomberg reported a deterioration in oil-refining profits over the last few weeks, which has companies considering lower processing rates. And one more thing today, the USD is recovering into the afternoon and that is pressuring prices.
*Gold – at $2001.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC closed unchanged reversing all gains up to $30K. Currently stettled to $28900.

Today - EU Confidence, US GDP & Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Mastercard etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.65%) up to 82.30. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising, RSI 65, OB 89 but flat.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th April 2023.

Market Update – April 20 – Markets Tread Water.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD continued to rotate (USDIndex at 101.65) hotter UK inflation data added to more global concerns that core price pressures remain too elevated & the Beige Book did not provide the evidence that credit conditions are tightening significantly enough to take the Fed off the hook for more action. FOMC, ECB & BOE all set to hike in May, divergence to follow in the summer? Stocks were flat overall again, with some strong Earnings (Abbott Labs +7.82% IBM, TSMC & WAL +24.12%) some mixed (Morgan Stanley) and some missed (#TSLA, -6% after hours). Asian markets are subdued as PBOC leave rates unchanged and the NZD underperforms as inflation cools significantly. Fed’s Williams & Goolsbee reiterated that inflation is still “too high” and the FOMC will “act”. ECB’s Knot “too early to talk about a pause in rate hikes”.

Overnight RBNZ inflation measure for Q1 2023 5.7% vs. 5.8%, German March PPI -2.6% vs -0.5%.

*FX – USDIndex rotates at 101.65, EUR holds at 1.0970 and JPY pushed to over 135.00  before declining to 134.50. Sterling got a big boost from the inflation data and trades at  1.2470. 
*Stocks – US markets closed flat again (-0.23% to 0.03%) #US500 closed unchanged at 4154. – US500 FUTS are at 4167 and below the key  resistance at 4175.




*Commodities – USOil – Futures tanked into $78.35 today following inventory decline of 4.6 million barrels and weak Asian markets, Gold – continued to slip, testing $1970, yesterday before recovering to trade at $2000.0
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC declined from the $30k level yesterday, breaking $29k  today.

Today - US Weekly Claims, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Waller, Mester, Bowman & Bostic, ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel. EARNINGS Phillip Morris, AT&T, American Express, Publicis, EssilorLuxottica, Renault & Nokia.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.75%). Tanked from 2-day highs at 0.5580 yesterday to 0.5513 lows today.  MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 33.28 & flat, H1 ATR 0.00101 Daily ATR 0.00530.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th April 2023.

Market Update – April 19 – USD Holds gains , UK CPI very hot.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD rotated (USDIndex at 101.50) as Bonds lead with Yields higher too. Expectations for a 25 bp May Fed rate hike continued to rise on more hawkish Fedspeak, Bullard even talked of two more 25bp after May, Bostic sees 25bp in May and then a pause for the rest of the year. Stocks closed flat, BoA and J&J big beats, GS strong EPS but revenue missed. After hours Netflix missed subscriber numbers and shares tanked -12% on poor Q2 outlook – but full year offered better numbers and the losses were reversed completely. ECB’s Lane sees 3 more hikes for the common currency area and remains Hawkish, despite talk of FED pause.
Overnight strong  UK CPI disappointed, headline missed and remained over 10% at 10.1%, the key CORE number is 3 x times the BoE target at 6.2%, RPI 13.5% and the Food & Non-Alcoholic  Component a staggering 19.2%. Service Inflation also rose to 5.7%



*FX – USDIndex rotates at 101.50, EUR holds through 1.0970 and JPY pushes  higher again breaching 134.50. Sterling got a big boost from the inflation data and trades at  1.2470. 
*Stocks – US markets closed flat again (-0.04% to 0.09%) #US500 closed +3.55 pts. at 4154. – US500 FUTS are at 4167 and below the key  resistance at 4175.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $80.00 yesterday but has recovered to $80.40 day. Gold – continued to slip, testing $1986, before recovering to trade at $1994.0
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC rallied from the $30k level yesterday to $30.5k and back to $30.0k today.

Today - EZ HICP (Final), New Zealand CPI, Speeches from ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, Fed’s Goolsbee, BoE’s Mann,  UK & US, Earnings from ASML, (big beat)  Heineken, (beat)  Just Eat (mixed), American Airlines, IBM, Tesla, Morgan Stanley.



Biggest FX Mover@ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.67%). Rallied from 0166.75 pre Inflation data to 167.65.  MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 80.30, OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.187 Daily ATR 1.34.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th April 2023.

Market Update – April 18 – USD Holds Gains, Chinese GDP & UK Jobs Spike.


The USD cooled from a 2-day rally despite strong Empire State Manufacturing Index, Stocks closed flat and Yields (10yr 3.591%) held onto gains. Overnight strong Chinese data (GDP hit 4.5% in Q1 vs 4.0% & 2.9%), Retail Sales were 10.6% from 3.5% and Unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.6%. UK Jobs beat (28.2k new jobs vs -11.2k last time, Earnings continue to be very hot at 5.9% vs 5.7%, Unemployment was 1 tick higher at 3.8% too adding to the bid on Sterling and increasing chatter of stagflation in the UK and pressure on the BOE to act again. Asian markets are also subdued despite Chinese data. Us Futures hold at recent highs.

FX – USDIndex rallied to 101.90 and trades at a previous intra-day key pivot level at 101.65. EUR declined further to 1.0910 rejecting 1.1000. Today 1.0950 remains immediate resistance. JPY pushed higher again and breached 134.50 briefly today. Sterling moved down to 1.2355 lows yesterday but is testing back to 1.2400 today following the UK jobs data.
Stocks – US markets closed flat but positive across all sectors (0.28% to 0.33%) #US500 closed +13.68 pts. at 4151. – US500 FUTS are higher today at 4177 and above the key resistance at 4175. #SST -9.18%, MRNA -8.36%, Roblox -12.01%. #GOOGL -2.66% (Rumour that Samsung is to use Bing, not Google for searches) Musk; latest to announce investment into to new AI platform to rival ChatGPT.


Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $80.30 yesterday but has recovered to $81.00 day. Gold – continued to slip, testing $1982, before recovering the key $2000 today
Cryptocurrencies – BTC declined from the $30k level yesterday to $29K and back to $29.6k today.
Today – German ZEW, US Housing Starts/Building Permits, Canadian CPI, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Bowman, BOC’s Macklem & Rogers, ECB’s Elderson. Earnings from Ericsson (beat), United Airlines, JNJ, Netflix, Goldman Sachs & BofA.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.59%). Rallied from a decline to 0.6680 yesterday to test 0.6740 today, 0.6750 and 0.6780 next resistance areas. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.50 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00090, Daily ATR 0.00751.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th April 2023.

Market Update – April 17- Expectations of FED May hike increase lifting USD.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

There is now (CME marketwatch) an 83% chance of a 25 bp FED HIKE in May, from 74% on Friday, as mixed US data (a Big miss fro Retail Sales, and minor beats for Ind.  Production & Consumer Sentiment) saw USD rally 1 big number from 12-mth lows, & GOLD crash below $2000. US Stocks closed lower (-0.35% to -0.72%) despite big Earnings beats from the Banks, JPM +7.6%, but Boeing tanked -5.6% as fault from supplier Spirit (-20.7%) halted deliveries of 737 MAX. Asian markets were higher (Nikkei hit a 6-week high) to start the week before cooling.



Weekend (IMF Meeting) & Overnight Data – Ueda had more dovish comments, Yellen said bank credit tightening could be a substitute for further Fed rate hikes, Lagarde warned of a “narrow path” for global economic recovery and Dimon expects rates to be “higher for longer”. NZD Performance Services Index misses at 54.4 vs. 55.8 but Food Inflation cooled to 0.8% from 1.5% &  China’s New Home prices rose at their fastest pace in 21 months.

*FX – USDIndex bounced from under 100.50 and 12-mth lows over 100 pips to 101.50 but still registered a seventh consecutive week of declines and trades at 101.25 now. EUR declined from 1.1075 to 1.0970 and trades at 1.0990 now testing 1.1000.  JPY tested 132.00 on Friday before rallying to over 134.00 today. Sterling rallied to breach 1.2545 on Friday before declining under 1.2400 earlier but trades at 1.2415 now.
*Stocks – US markets closed down across all sectors (-0.35% to -0.72%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the rally. #US500 closed -8.58 pts. at 4137. – US500 FUTS are flat today at 4169 having been as high as 4188 on Friday and above the key  resistance at 4175. #CITI, +4.8%  & #Blackrock +3.1%.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures continue to rotate around $82.50 today. Gold – tanked from a test of the $2050, level on Friday to under $1995. The key metal is back over $2000 today and trades at $2010.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds under the $30k level today from a brief spike over $31k on Friday.

Today - Empire State Manu. Index – speeches from BOE’s Cunliffe, ECB’s Lagarde and Bundesbank’s Nagel.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.31%). Continued to rally and is now 7 days higher from under 88.00 to test 90.00 once again today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 58.65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.155, Daily ATR 0.9200.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th April 2023.

Market Update – April 14 – Stocks rally, USD tumbles, FED to stall?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock trading screens turned green yesterday after cooler than expected PPI (-0.5% vs 0.0) and a bigger than expected increase in jobless claims (239k vs 228k)helped propel Wall Street to better than 1% gains. The NASDAQ surged 1.99% to top the 12,000 level again. The US500 jumped 1.33% and has been over the 4,000 mark for an eleventh straight session. The US30 was up 1.14% to top 34,000 for the first time since mid-February.  Treasuries closed in the red 10yr at 3.44% and the curved is now 52 pts inverted. USD continues to decline and trades at 12-mth lows, EURUSD over 1.1070 this morning and Sterling trades at 1.2540. Asian markets cautious & flat (save NIKKEI +1.1%) & European FUT’s are firmer ahead of US bank earnings, Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Overnight Data Singapore’s central bank sprang the surprise of the Asian day by halting its tightening cycle, markets were expecting more restraint. Singapore joins Canada & Australia, India & South Korea to press the pause button. They also issued a gloomy outlook.

*FX – USDIndex declined further to 100.50 and 12-mth lows and a third consecutive week of declines. EUR spiked to 1.1070 earlier and holds the bid. JPY dived from 133.00 and is testing 132.00 now.  Sterling rallied to breach 1.2500 and holds this key level.
*Stocks – US markets closed with strong gains across all sectors (1.14% to 1.99%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the rally. #US500 closed +54 pts. at 4146. – US500 FUTS are also higher today at 4167 having tested the resistance at 4175 again. #AMZN & #NFLX gained over 4% each and #GOOG, #MSFT & #TSLA over 2% each.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures cooled from weekly highs at $83.50 to $82.30 today. Gold – holds over the $2040, level today having been to a low of  $2015 yesterday. Next major resistance sits at $2050.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.8k today.

Today - US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. Survey, speeches from Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Tenreyro, Earnings from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.32%). Continued to rally from under 1.6260 yesterday to test 1.6340 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 55.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.01377.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th April 2023.

Market Update – April 13 – CPI & FED “One more hike & done?”


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The US CPI report was good news for bulls as it suggests the FOMC can start easing off the brakes, though this is not likely in May (69% chance of another hike). Some market participants believe one more 25bp and they will be done, others remain Hawkish and that moving CORE CPI & CPE from the 5% to the 3-2% range will prove problematic and this could mean hikes in May and June too.



FOMC minutes showed considerable discussions over the banking turmoil, as indicated in Chair Powell’s press conference. The “banking sector” was the literally the lead paragraph of the report and was mentioned 24 times overall, compared to zero in February. There was some overall softening in outlooks, which also “increased the already-high level of uncertainty associated with the outlooks on economic activity.” However, ultimately “all” participants supported the 25 bp rate hike. A mild recession is expected from the FOMC.

The Bank of Canada left its target rate at 4.50%, as expected, unchanged from March after the 25 bp tightening in January. But it was a “hawkish” pause as inflation and economic activity have not really evolved as expected. CAD gained on the news.

Volatility dominated the newsflow yesterday. USD dived and remains pressured, EUR, Sterling & AUD all benefitted. US Stocks markets all closed lower, and this fed through to mixed Asian markets and European & US Futures. Treasury markets caught an extra bid and yields finished lower, led by the 2-year’s 6.5 bp slide to 3.958% & the 10-year’s +3.5 bp to 3.395%, remaining 56 bp inverted. Gold and Oil both benefited from a weaker USD and BTC continues to hold at $30k.

Overnight Data  China March Trade – big beat – (USD) Exports +14.8% y/y (expected -7.1%) & Imports -1.4% y/y (expected -6.4%). AUD Jobs beat (53k vs 20k), Unemployment (3.5% vs 3.6%) & CPI (4.6% vs 5.3%) both fell significantly too. German Final CPI in line at 7.8% and UK GDP (Feb) missed again (0.0% vs 0.1% & 0.4%) last time.

*FX – USDIndex declined to test April lows at 101.05 and remains anchored well below 102.00 today at 101.20. EUR spiked to 1.1000 yesterday and again today and trades at 1.0988. The 2023 high is 1.1032.  JPY dived from 134.00, tested below 133.00 and trades at 133.25 now.  Sterling rallied from 1.2400 but remains under the key 1.2500 once again at 1.2490.
*Stocks – US markets closed lower (-0.11% to -0.85%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the declines once again. #US500 closed down 17pts. at 4091. – US500 FUTS are also lower today at 4124 from highs of 4177 yesterday. #LVMH rallied after surging sales in China.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures have tested the $83.50 level today despite official EIA  inventories showing weaker demand as a build (+0.6m vs -1.0m and -3.7m last week) for both gasoline and petroleum products was recorded.  Gold – has broken the $2020, level again today having been to a low of  $2001, and a high of $2028 yesterday.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k  level spiking to $30.4k and $29.6k extremes yesterday.

Today - EZ Industrial Production, US PPI, US Weekly Claims, OPEC MOMR, speeches from BoC’s Macklem, BoE’s Pill.




Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.38%). Continued to rally from under 88.00 on Monday to test 89.50 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 63.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.187, Daily ATR 1.526.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th April 2023.

Market Update – April 12 – All eyes on US Inflation & FOMC Minutes.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US #stockmarkets closed mixed again and Asian markets are flat ahead of US CPI print at 12:30 GMT today. USD has slipped again as EUR & AUD outperform. Treasuries recovered a tad (10-yr at 3.434%), #Gold hits $2,020 #USOil moves to $81.50 despite inventory build and #BTC holds onto $30k level. Fed’s Harker the “Fed may soon be done” and Goolsbee the Fed “needs to be careful about raising rates too aggressively in its efforts to tame inflation”, turned more Dovish. Kashkari remained Hawkish, “would be much worse for jobs if we failed to get inflation down”. CME Fed Futures still have a 69% chance of 25 bp interest rate hike in May. A hold from June ??

Overnight Data Japanese #PPI cooled to 7.2% from 8.3% but remains very elevated and #Machine Orders declined significantly (-4.5%) but not as badly as expected (-6.4%)  from 9.5%.

*FX – USDIndex declined to 101.65 and remains anchored below 102.00 today. EUR holds over 1.0900 today and trades at 1.0925.  JPY breached 134.00 today from a test back to 133.00 yesterday. Sterling holds over 1.2400 at 1.2425.
*Stocks – US markets closed mixed again with Tech underperforming (+0.29% to -0.43%). #US500 closed at 4109 – US500 FUTS are lower today at 4134 from 4150 yesterday.   Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks on Friday. #CARMAX rose 7% following stronger results.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures tested $81.50 level today despite private API inventories showing weaker demand as a build for both gasoline and petroleum products was recorded. Official EIA inventories today.  Gold – tests the  $2020, level again today having been as low as $1998, yesterday.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k  level spiking to $30.5k earlier. Binance also suspended TRON & Spell as TRON founder Justin Sun was arrested in Hong Kong (also wanted in the US).

Today - US CPI, BoC Rate Decision, FOMC Minutes, speeches from ECB’s Lagarde and de Guindos, BoE’s Bailey (x2), Fed’s Barkin and Daly. Earnings – LVMH.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.16%). Continued to rally from under 143.00 last week to test 146.35 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.187, Daily ATR 1.526.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th April 2023.

Market Update – April 11 – Stocks & USD Mixed as Inflation & Earnings Loom.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US #stockmarkets closed mixed – Industrials higher – Tech lower (#Samsung said they will cut chip production – lifting Western Digital & Micron +8%). USD continued to recover, (USDIndex topped at 102.50), Treasuries slipped again (10 yr 3.41%) and #BTC breached $30k for the first time in 10mths. In the Asian session stocks are higher (ASX +1.3% after Easter break & Nikkei +1.4% after a Dovish outlook from new BOJ Governor Ueda & Buffet said he was planning to add to his Japanese investments. AUD is outperforming.

Overnight Data Chinese #CPI cooled to 0.7% from 1.0% and missed expectations, and #PPI fell further remaining significantly deflationary at -2.5% from -1.4%

FX – USDIndex rallied to 102.50 yesterday and hold at 102.00 today. EUR tested down to 1.0850 but is back to test 1.0900 today. JPY breached 133.00 yesterday & rallied to 133.88 as BOJ Governor Ueda, confirmed there will be no immediate policy change from the BOJ. Sterling’s decline from the key 1.2500 stalled at 1.2350 and now trades back at 1.2400 today.
Stocks – US markets closed mixed (+0.30% to -0.03%) after a very weak open. #US500 closed at 4109 – US500 FUTS are higher today at 4140. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks on Friday & FRC today.


Commodities – USOil – Futures tested under the key $80.00 level but holds at $80.50 now. Gold – tests the vital $2000, level again today having been as low as $1982, yesterday.
Cryptocurrencies – BTC rallied over 8% from the $28k level and breached $30k earlier today spiking to $30.7k on speculation that interest rates may have peaked. Additionally, a major revamp to the Ethereum ($1.917k) blockchain is due this week “that is set to allow them to gain access to more than $33 billion of ether currency. Dubbed Shapella, the software upgrade will let market players redeem their “staked ether” – coins they have deposited and locked up on the network over the past three years in return for interest.” – Reuters
Today – EZ Retail Sales and Sentix Index, EIA STEO, speeches from Fed’s Goolsbee & Harker. IMF Meetings Continue. Earnings – First Republic (#FRC), which was hit hard by client withdrawals in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.46%). Rallied from under 0.6620 yesterday to test 0.6680 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00092, Daily ATR 0.00701.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th April 2023.

Market Update – April 10 – USD Recovers, JPY awaits Ueda.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US Payrolls on Friday were a near bullseye, with a 236k rise in March after -17k in revisions, though there was a skewing of weakness toward the goods sector. We saw the expected 0.3% hourly earnings rise that left a 4.2% y/y gain. The jobless rate fell to 3.50% from 3.57%, leaving the rate still above the 54-year low of 3.43% in January, with hefty gains of 577k for civilian employment and 480k for the labour force, while the labour force participation rate rose to a new a 3-year high of 62.6% from a prior high of 62.5%. However, there was a further drop in the workweek to 34.4 in March that fueled a -0.1% drop in the hours-worked index after small downward revisions. Overall, it raises expectations of a 25 bp hike from the Fed on May 3rd.

Overnight: Japan – March consumer confidence index 33.9 vs 31.1 prior.

*FX – USDIndex slipped under 101.50 on Friday and remains below 102.00 today at 101.85. EUR remains at 1.0900 today, having spiked down to 1.0875 on the NFP data. JPY breached 132.00 on Friday and holds 132.60 ahead of Gov. Ueda. Sterling’s decline from the key 1.2500 tests 1.2400 today.
*Stocks – US markets, closed mixed led by tech stocks on Thursday (+0.76% to -0.03%) #US500 closed at 4105 – US500 FUTS touched 4145 on Friday but are lower today at 4127.  Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks this week.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures hold the key $80.00 and even breached $81.00 briefly earlier following the OPEC production cut last weekend. Gold – broke below the vital  $2000, testing into support at $1987, before recovering to $1995.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC slipped to $27.7k,  recovered the key $28k and tests $28.4k today.

Today - Most trading Centres remain closed for Easter Monday, Speeches from new BOJ Governor Ueda, & Fed’s Williams.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.49%). A 3-day rally from under 131.00 continues testing 132.75 resistance today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 62.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.191, Daily ATR 1.310.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th April 2023.

Market Update – April 7 – Stocks & Dollar Higher Ahead of Jobs Day.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Trading was cautious heading into the March jobs report and the Easter holidays. Most global markets will be closed on Good Friday, with much of Europe also shut for Easter Monday. Wall Street will not trade today, but the Treasury market will be open for an abbreviated session due to the employment report. The USD recovered from lows, Stocks closed a tad higher and Yields slipped again (US 10-yr at 3.288%). Gold tested down to $2,000 before settling a $2007.82, & USOil closed at $80.70.

Overnight: Japan – February household spending (weaker) +1.6% vs +4.3% & Leading Indicator Index rises to 97.7 vs 96.5 last time.

*FX – USDIndex slipped to 101.06 yesterday and remains below 102.00 today at 101.50. EUR slipped under 1.0900 yesterday but trades at 1.0920 now. JPY found a floor at 131.00 this week but remains under 132.00 for a fourth day.  Sterling’s decline from the key 125.00 holds at 1.2440, next support 1.2425.
*Stocks – US markets, closed mixed led by tech stocks yesterday (+0.76% to -0.03%) #US500 closed at 4105 – US500 FUTS also higher at 4128.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures held the key $80.00 and a new equilibrium following the OPEC production cut last weekend. Gold – tested into $2000 once again, before settling a $2007.82
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC continues to rotate at what is becoming the key $28k again.

Today - Most trading Centres closed for Good Friday, US NonFarm Payrolls.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.31%). Broken a 3-day fall from a test of the 90.00 zone earlier in the week, recovering 88.00 today. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line turning positive & rising, RSI 59.35 & rising, H1 ATR 0.103, Daily ATR 1.089.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th April 2023.

Market Update – April 6 – Eyes on Jobs.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USD wobbled initially and stumbled to 101.4 on the data, but recovered to close at 101.75. Another data miss, a further drop in bonds. Treasuries rallied further after weaker ISM services and ADP numbers added to expectations for a slowing economy that will keep the FOMC hawks grounded, if not in May, then in June. The combination of risk aversion, reduced expectations for Fed tightening, short covering, and technicals all helped propel the move. Wall Street was mixed all session & Asian equities declined following the US lower as investors switched their focus to the prospect of a recession.  German industrial production surged 2.0% m/m in February, adding to signs that activity has strengthened, and that Germany will escape a technical recession! UK house prices rose unexpectedly in March.

Overnight – China & HK reopened but the regions stocks also remained heavy ahead of Easter Weekend.  – Chinese Services PMI grew strongly, the AUD trade balance was better than expected but weighed on AUD & NZD.

*FX – USDIndex ranging 101.11-101.29. EUR and GBP are weaker but steady above 1.0900 and 1.2450 respectively. JPY also lost some ground against USD rebounding to 131.50.



*Stocks – US100 dropped -1.07%, while the US500 fell -0.25%, with the US30 rising 0.24%.  Western Alliance Bancorp shares have fallen further today, dropping some -17% following an update on its Q1 financials yesterday on a lack of details. Losses are being pared slightly after just releasing further information on its deposits, noting total deposits declined to $47.6 bln in Q1 from $53.6 bln to end Q4. It is slated to announce its earnings on April 18 after the close.
*Commodities – USOil is sideways between $79-$80.
*Gold – prices have slipped to $2012 from $2032, but the contract is holding above $2000 after breaking that barrier yesterday (closing basis) for the first time since March 2022.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC flat at $28k.



Today - US Jobless Claims, Canadian Employment data & Speech from the Fed’s key Hawk – Bullard.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.52%). On EU open rebounded from 82.42 but holds well below PP. MAs reversed but not bullishly crossed yet, while MACD & RSI remain negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th April 2023.

Market Update – April 5 – Stock markets struggle.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USD remains under pressure, post the weaker than expected JOLTS and factory orders reports which set the stage for another strong rally in Treasuries as they heightened beliefs the FOMC is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Yields plunged on the data headlines. RBNZ surprised, raised to 5.25% from 4.75% – the country’s economy is headed for recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. US Stock markets sold off slightly into the afternoon with declines of about -0.5% as the weaker data dominated. BoE’s Hunt hinted for a rate rise in May. Pound at its highest level in 10 months, with slightly stronger than expected economic growth and an uptick in inflation in February raising the chances of higher interest rates. German manufacturing orders much stronger than expected.

*FX – USDIndex ranging 101.11-101.29. EUR steady above 1.0950. JPY lifted  extending 3-day gains, currently at 131.50 from 133.75 high against USD. Sterling boosted to 1.2522 reaching June 2022 highs.



*Stocks – Asian stock markets struggled, and European stock futures are also mostly in the red, after another disappointing data round in the US undermined confidence in the recovery and left Wall Street with another loss. Japanese markets underperformed and the Nikkei lost -1.7%. Walmart shares -1% afterhours as it sticks with cautious sales outlook for first quarter. Ford’s quarterly sales jump 10% as supply improves.
*Commodities – USOil is sideways between $80- $82 as concerns of further tightening support oil prices for now.
*Gold – rallied to $2026.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC extending above $28.5k.

Today - Service PMI’s from EZ, UK & US ISM Services & Trade Balance and ADP Private Payrolls.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.52%). Spiked to 0.6378. MAs flattened, MACD line below histogram, RSI turn below 80 and Stochastic at 55 indicating the end of the rally.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.