Topic: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services. - page 21. (Read 6900 times)

Date : 16th February 2023.

Market Update – February 16 – USD & Yields hit new recent highs & Stocks bounce.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A big beat for US Retail Sales, lifted the USD, Treasury Yields and global stock markets, with a raft of “soft landing” scenarios swirling and even talk of a “no landing”, a situation where inflation cools quickly, the economy grows steadily and unemployment remains low without having a knock-on effect for inflation. A real disparity in views now emerging. Goldman Sachs cut the chance of a US recession in the next 12 months to 25%, from 35%; US 2yr/10yr yield curve at -87bp as the 10yr hits a 7-week high.  Overnight: Japan reported it’s largest ever trade deficit at $174 billion as imports surged due to high energy costs with exports unable to compensate. AUD lower after a slump in jobs (-11.5k vs +20k) & unemployment up (3.7% from 3.5%).

*FX – USD Index tested into 104.00 for a 28-day high. Back to 103.65 now.  EUR tested the weekly low at 1.0670 before recovering 1.0700, JPY  breached 134.00 (new 28-day high) & tardes at 133.86 now. Sterling declined from 1.2175 to once again bounce from below 1.2000 to trade at 1.2050 now. Nicola Sturgeon the First Minister of Scotland announced a shock resignation, that will likely strike a blow for Scottish  independence and increase the chances of the Labour Party at next years general election.
*Stocks – The US markets rose into close after a weak open. (+0.11% to +0.92%) Movers – #ABNB +13.35% & COIN +17.5%, OXY & PXD both shed over -5.2%. US500 0.28% (11.47) 4147, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS 4161 now.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures dropped to $77.20, 5-day lows, yesterday after a very large inventories build of 16.3m barrels vs. 2.4m barrels last week. Prices have recovered to $79.20 today. Gold – tested the support level at $1830 yesterday before recovering to $1840.
*Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Surged over +10% yesterday from $22.0k lows, to breach the key $24k resistance area and test to 24.9k highs.

Today – US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Philly Fed, PPI, Weekly Claims.  Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Cook & Mester, ECB’s Lane, Panetta & de Guindos, BoE’s Pill. EARNINGS – Pernod Ricard (miss), Commerzbank, (+7.5%) Orange, Airbus, Standard Chartered (+2.11%), Nestle (in-line -0.49%) , Paramount & Dropbox.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.34%). Rallied to 134.35 yesterday but has dipped to 133.75 now. MA’s now flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 51.42, H1 ATR 0.196, Daily ATR 1.588.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th February 2023.

Market Update – February 15 – CPI Data Done – Retail Sales Next.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US CPI DATA provided a real mixed bag.  Monthly data higher & annual data lower to 6.4% from 6.5% but missed expectations of 6.2%. A volatile session – USD finishing higher and Stocks (-0.46% to +0.57%) were mixed.  The 2yr yield curve rose further and the inversion between that and the 10yr curve widened to -83bp. The Fed Funds Futures is now pushing the terminal rate over the 5.25% level.  Overnight RBA’s LOWE issued a gloomy outlook & “unsure how high rates can go” – AUD tanked, Kishida said Ueda was the “best” candidate and unsure on policy change. Asian markets biased lower. GBP – CPI cools (10.1% vs. 10.3% & 10.5%) RPI holds at 13.4%.

*FX – USD Index holds 103.00 at 103.43, up from 102.35 lows yesterday,  EUR back down to test 1.0700 today after a brief sojourn to 1.0800, following US CPI. Sterling spiked to 1.2270 highs but is below 1.2100 now at 1.2085 post UK CPI & RPI.
*Stocks – The US markets mixed again (-0.46% to +0.57%) led by #TSLA +7.51 & #NVDA +5.54% (Buffet has increased stake in #APPL) US500 flat -0.03% (-1.16) 4136, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS lower at  4122 now.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures topped at $80.60 yesterday before sinking under $78.00 now as US private Inventories rose (EIA data today). Gold – tanked from $1870 highs yesterday to $1836 lows today on a stronger USD.
*Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Tested $21.5k lows again yesterday before retaking $22k now.

Today – EZ Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, Empire State Manu., Ind. Prod. & Japanese Trade Balance, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde.  Earnings: Heineken, (beat) Kering, (miss) Barclays (miss -7.01%), Glencore, (miss -2.42%)  Cisco, Biogen, Analog Devices, Marathon Oil & Shopify.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-1.01%). Tanked over 1% following LOWE’s testimony. Sank from a test of 0.7030 yesterday to under 0.6900 now. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 26.30 & OS, H1 ATR 0.00150, Daily ATR 0.00903.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th February 2023.

Market Update – February 14 – Pivotal Day.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Markets have prepped for today’s CPI report over the last several sessions, while also pricing in a more hawkish FOMC stance going into Q2.

*Stocks high, Treasuries mixed and US Dollar sagged.  Shorter dated Treasuries underperformed and were in the red most of the day as a “higher for longer” Fed stance was more fully priced in.
     *Gains in Microsoft, Apple, and Meta helped boost tech Nasdaq. Microsoft +3.12%, pushing its market cap over $2 trillion, Meta +3.03% after the Financial Times reported that Meta is planning another round of layoffs. Tesla -1.14%.
*FX – USDIndex sagged – slumped to 102.93 today, from an overnight high of 103.83, helped by a rebound in USDJPY.
*EUR & GBP – extend losses against USD – 1.0737 & 1.2170 respectively. UK ILO unemployment held steady but employment rose in the three months to December. The tight labour market and wide spread strike action is forcing companies to up wage offers and regular pay in order to keep hold of skilled staff.
*JPY – just a breath below 133 before pullback to 132 again. The Yen recouped losses as Japan nominated a new central bank governor in a closely watched decision & as Japan’s Q4 GDP growth lags below expectations.
*The US100 led the way with a 1.48% bounce, followed by the US500’s 1.14% advance, while the US30 was up 1.11%.



*USOil – down at 79 area again but stands above 20-DMA.  It fell after the US unveiled a plan to release supplies from its strategic reserves, offsetting price pressures triggered by rising demand in China and Russia’s plan to cut output. (Reuters)
*Gold – sideways for a 3rd day at $1856-1867.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – at $21.7k.

Today – All eyes are on US Inflation. EU prelim GDP is also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.65%). Holds at 20 DMA. MAs flattened, MACD lines are at 0, RSI 44 presenting that pullback has run out of steam. H1 ATR 0.146, Daily ATR 0.883.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th February 2023.

Market Update – February 13 – Stocks Cautious & USD Up.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The consistency of the hawkish message, that rates are going higher and will remain in restrictive territory, is finally hitting home and yields rose in sync and weighed heavily on stocks and bonds this year.

*Nikkei loses 1%, US500 futures 0.4%, US Dollar extends gains before US CPI & retail data. Asian shares fell ahead of the data but also due to the weak earnings that weighed on the sentiment.
*Lyft, Tokyo Electron (-4.39%), SoftBank (-1.12%), Advantest (-1.57%), Shiseido (-3.97%), Olympus (-2.25%).

In case you missed it, the Morgan Stanley Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) has turned risk negative & the GS program trading desk writes: “Inflecting CTA flow could translate to an approx. 20% sell off in US equities over a month in a down tape scenario”.



*FX – USDIndex UP – saw a high of 103.70 before correcting to currently 103.44. Reuters: “Risks could be to the upside given a re-analysis of seasonal factors released last week saw upward revisions to CPI in December and November. That lifted core inflation on a 3-month annualised basis to 4.3%, from 3.1%.”
*EUR & GBP – extend losses against USD – 1.0680 & 1.2057 respectively.
*JPY – held above 132 area on reports that Japan’s government is likely to appoint academic Kazuo Ueda as the- next BOJ governor, a surprise choice that could see the country finally align with other major economies in raising interest rates.
*USDJPY – if 132.80 is broken, next R: 134.80.



*Commodities – USOil – steady at 79 after +2% spike. If higher inflation then concerns could increase that the move would slow economic activity and demand for oil. Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March.
*Reuters – “Oil may resume its rally in 2023 as Chinese demand recovers after COVID curbs were scrapped and lack of investment limits growth in supply, OPEC country officials told Reuters, with a growing number seeing a possible return to $100 a barrel.”
*Gold – sideways at $1856-1867.
*Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Tested $21.3k lows, currently at $21.8k.

Today – We have heavy release schedule through mid-February. We expect  Fed policy, US January retail sales, inflation indexes, housing starts, permits and Philly Fed indexes.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.84%). Extends above 20 DMA. MAs remain aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line turned positive, RSI 72, H1 ATR 0.15, Daily ATR 0.861.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th February 2023.

Market Update – February 10 – Hawkish Fedspeak & a Japanese Surprise.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures topped at $78.50 yesterday before sinking to $76.50 and back to $77.70 now and heading for a +5% gain this week. Gold – tanked from $1890 highs yesterday to $1854 lows before recovering $1860.
*Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Tested $21.6k lows today, down -8.7% from the weekly high on Wednesday over $23.4k.

Today – Canadian Jobs Report, US UoM Consumer Sentiment, ECB TLTRO III, EU Leaders Summit, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Harker, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.72%). Tanked on the Nikkei scoop regarding next BOJ Governor. Sank from a test of 159.60 earlier to 158.00 now. MA’s now lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 26.05 & OS, H1 ATR 0.2900, Daily ATR 1.558.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th February 2023.

Market Update – February 9 – FedSpeak supports USD, but the Bard bombs.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

FEDSpeak – in virtual union about higher rates (along with Dimon “too early to declare victory vs. inflation”) – Fed Funds terminal rate now 5.122%. USDindex holds at 1-mth highs in flat FX markets, US10yr yield 3.653. Google’s AI the “Bard” bombed (got a wrong answer in a promo demo) – #Alphabet shares tanked -9% at one point but closed -7.7% before recovering back to flat after hours. One to Watch at US Open later, along with #DISNEY – Earnings & Revenue beat (+5.4% after hours)- Iger announced 7k job losses (3.6%) as Disney+ subscribers fell for first time since launch in 2019. #TOYOTA profits up 23% overnight & Siemens & Volvo earnings also beat too. USOIL up again to $78.50, Gold holds key $1880, BTC $22.6k.

*FX USD Index holds at 103.00 but a tad cooler today at 103.13,  EUR holds over 1.0700 at 1.0734, JPY holds over 131.00 at 131.25 and Sterling (best performer overnight) is testing 121.00 from 1.2025 lows on Wednesday.
*Stocks – The US markets tanked (-0.61% to 1.68%) led by #Alphabet US500 -1.11% (-46.14) 4117, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS struggled at 4175 resistance, 4145 now.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied again to trade at $78.50 today from $72.20 lows on Monday. Gold – Advanced from $1865 lows yesterday to $1880 resistance again now.
*Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Tested $22.3k lows yesterday, before lifting back to $22.7k now.

Today – EU Leaders Summit (inc.Zelenskiy), US Weekly Claims, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey, Pill, Tenreyro, Haskel, ECB’s de Guindos, . Earnings PepsiCo, Phillip Morris, AbbVie, PayPal & Kellogg.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.65%). Sank from a test of 1.7450 yesterday to 1.7350, before rallying again to 1.7380 today. MA’s now flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 48.75 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00200, Daily ATR 0.01558.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th February 2023.

Market Update – February 8 – Markets Mixed Following Powell.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chair Powell’s comments – cancelled each other out – talked more “disinflation” with “significant declines in inflation.” in 2023 but the surprise 517k NFP he could not explain – adding to the 5-5.25% range argument. Fed Fund futures are now pricing the terminal rate at 5.15% in July. (up from 4.9% ahead of NFP). So “As we were.” USD slipped and then reversed, Stocks (NASDAQ +1.90%) & Yields (US10yr 3.6745) closed higher. Biden’s SOU speech has high ambitions but has little chance of success with a divided Congress.

*The USD Index continued to rally from 8-mth lows last week at 100.65. Third day higher touched 103.80 before reversing under 103.00 and is back to 103.20 currently.
*EUR – sank to new 21-day lows at 1.0675 yesterday, rallied to 1.0760 and back to 1.0735 now.
*JPY – Declined over 1.3% yesterday to 130.40 lows, over 131.00 now at 131.20.
*GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.2080 then weakened again to breach the psychological 1.2000 yesterday to touch 23-day lows at 1.1960. The pair is back to 1.2050 now.
*Stocks – The US markets rallied on the disinflation side of the story (0.78% to 1.90%)  US500 1.29%, (52.94) 4164, holding the key 4100.  US500 FUTS trade at next key resistance 4175. MSFT +4.2%, GOOG +4.42% & Bidu +12.18%. All rallied on AI news, Oil majors rallied on back of BP Earnings. ATVI +5.62% on back of MSFT, their own Earnings and takeover rumours.



*USOil – Futures rallied again to trade at $77.55 today from $72.20 lows on Monday.
*Gold – Advanced from $1865 lows yesterday to $1880 resistance now.
*BTC – Tested $22.7k lows yesterday, before lifting over $23k, to 23.2k now.

Today – BoC Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Cook, Barr, Bostic, Kashkari & Waller, ECB’s Knot & Elderson, Earnings from ABN AMRO, Credit Agricole, Equinor, Societe Generale, (Beat)  AP Moeller-Maersk, CVS, Disney and Uber.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.20%). Sank from a test of 91.95 yesterday to 90.70, before rallying again to 91.50 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising & testing 0 line. RSI 55.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.190, Daily ATR 1.105.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd February 2023.

Market Update – February 2 – A Continued Battle of Wills.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stocks surged, Yields dove sharply, the US Dollar slumped, on Wednesday while they are holding their gains/losses so far today as well. The FOMC delivered the 25bp rate hike as expected, reaching 4.75%, an eighth straight hike. The moderation & the lack of anything new or overly hawkish  from Powell’s comments and when he acknowledged progress in the fight against inflation opened the door for bulls and a healthy short covering rally, eventhough he stressed that the labor market remains “extremely tight” and that inflation remains “well above our longer-run goal.”

Markets remain convinced that a widely expected recession is likely to roil markets once again sometime this year.

The policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference reiterated that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” that rates need to be “restrictive for some time,” that it is too soon to declare victory, and that rate cuts are not in the outlook.



*The USD Index – was the only real casualty of the markets’ dovish take, having fallen to 100.65 as the continued downshift in rate hikes over the last few FOMC decisions is increasing the chances that the tightening cycle is nearing an end, which continues to support markets.
*EUR – finally broke the key 1.0900 extending to 1.1000.
*JPY – drift to 128.00 from  130.50.
*GBP – at 1.2388, up 0.10% on the day.
*Stocks – US100 +2% at 12,528, US500 1% higher to 4,163 but the US30 steady at 34100. Shell makes record $40 billion annual profit. Meta surged nearly 19% in after-hours trade as it announced with lower costs, big buyback, upbeat sales. Deutsche Bank’s fourth-quarter profit surged, exceeding expectations and contributing to a third consecutive year of profit.



*USOil – we have seen a short- leave rise 77.40 after rebounded from 76.00 bottom,  after US government data showed big builds in crude and oil products inventory. OPEC+ agreed to cut its production target by 2 million barrels per day (bpd), about 2% of world demand, from November last year until the end of 2023 to support the market.
*Gold – skyrocketed to 1959.
*BTC – advanced to 24254.

Today – ECB seen raising rates by 50 basis points & BoE set to lift rates to 14-year high, might hint at next moves. Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Eli Lilly, Roche Holdings, Shell, Qualcomm etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGUSD (+2.59%). Bounced to R1 at 24.27. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal remain well above 0, RSI 63 but flat suggesting , H1 ATR 1.77, Daily ATR 5.48.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st February 2023.

Market Update – February 1 – US100 Posts Best January Since 2001.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stocks and bonds corrected higher on Tuesday as the deceleration in ECI energized short covering and boosted risk appetite. Global Stock market finished with solid. Earnings were mixed, but a lot of bad news has been digested, opening the door for bargain hunting. Treasury yields declined, led by the front end as the market senses rate hikes are coming to an end. Month-end buying also contributed. Along with ECI, the calendar included further declines in home prices, a drop in consumer confidence, and a slide in the Chicago PMI.




*UK: UK house prices inflation slowing down & shop prices continue to rise &  the mortgage rate surge through October; will add to the arguments of the hawks at the MPC, adds to signs that against the background of rising interest rates and falling disposable income the housing market is slowing fast. The question is how fast and how long the correction will be as the risk that thousands are stuck in situation with negative equity where loans exceed house values could exacerbate an already very difficult situation for the UK economy.
*China:China Caixin manufacturing PMI signals ongoing contraction. Unlike the official PMI report,  the Caixin General Manufacturing PMI remained below the 50 point no change mark and nudged only slightly higher – to 49.2 from 49.0 in December last year.
*The USD Index – slumped to 101.991 as the market saw fading prospects of an aggressive stance from the FOMC, even though many expect Chair Powell to push back against the rallies in bonds and stocks.
*EUR – advances slightly to 1.0879 from 1.0800.
*JPY – steady for 6 days in a row 130.00 – 130.40. BOJ buys record $182 billion worth of bonds in January
*GBP – drifted to 1.2300 bottom.
*Stocks – US100 +1.67% at 12118, for a 10.68% surge on the month, US500 1.46% higher and up 6.18% for January, the best monthly gain since October. And it is the first January increase since 2019. The US30 rose 1.09% on the day for a 2.83% monthly gain. Exxon smashes Western oil majors’ profits with $56 billion in 2022. AMD revenue beats targets, Wall St relieved after Intel’s grim outlook. GM shoves aside recession fears with robust 2023 forecast. Pfizer sees steep 2023 fall in COVID sales, aims to bolster pipeline.



*USOil – rebounded from 76.50 to 79.40 yesterday. The IMF has also lifted its global growth forecast and that should likely keep demand expectations and prices underpinned.
*Gold – closed at 1928.
*BTC – held above 23000 into the new month.

Today – EU prelim. HCPI, US ADP employment change, US ISM Manufacturing and FED meeting and Press Conference. Earnings: Meta, Novo, Thermo Fisher, Novartis, Sony etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Coffee (+6.66%).Bounced to 182 from 169.40. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line extends higher. RSI 86 but lower , H1 ATR 1.77, Daily ATR 5.48.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st January 2023.

Market Update – January 31 -Stocks Lower; Techs Lead Drop.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Global Stocks extend lower, USD steady and Yields picked up across the curve with the short end underperforming in a bear flattener given the Fed views. The curve flattened to -72 bps before unwinding to -70 bps. The looming FOMC decision on Wednesday and expectations for a hawkish trimming in the rate path left bonds and stocks heavy with buyers sidelined. Concerns over upcoming earnings from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta also weighed. The US100 slumped -1.96%. European bonds and stocks were mostly lower too ahead of ECB and BoE rate decisions.

Elsewhere:

*China: Domestic orders and consumption and manufacturing PMI drove higher (>50). A rebound in non-manufacturing activity was more decisive than expected by economists – but helped by a seasonal surge in spending for the Lunar New Year holiday.
*Japan Dec factory output inches down, retail sales beat forecasts
*German retail sales down 5.3% m/m in December & December import prices -1.6% m/m, +12.6% y/y.
The USD Index – firmed, however, rising to 102.32 assuming the Fed reiterates a higher for longer stance.
*EUR – drifts to 1.0827.
*JPY – rise slightly at 20-DMA i.e. 130.4.
*GBP – struggling to break 1.2450.
*Stocks – US100 -1.96% at 11929, US500 off -1.30% and the US30 -0.77%. Losses were broadbased.



*USOil – down to $77.60, below 50-day SMA as the threat of further interest rate increases and ample Russian crude flows outweighed demand recovery expectations from China. OPEC+ panel is likely to recommend keeping the oil producer group’s current output policy unchanged when it meets tomorrow.
Gold – at its 4th day lower, but still set for gain of 5% in January. Silver, platinum palladium are set *for a monthly decline.
*BTC – held support at $22,400.

Today – German unemployment, EU prelim GDP, US CB and NZ employment data; Earnings: AMD, Exxon, Pfizer, General Motors, Mc Donald’s, Marathon Petroleum etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.56%). Up to R2 of the day, i.e. 1.7586. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line extends higher. RSI 71 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00254, Daily ATR 0.01533.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th January 2023.

Market Update – January 30 – Mega Central banks, OPEC, NFP & Earnings week.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

China Stock market returns from Luna New Year break. Chinese stocks rose while most other Asian equities fell as investors looked to interest rate decisions scheduled this week in the US, UK and Europe and busy earnings agenda.  Nikkei ended at a more than 1-month high today. Global Stocks excluding China are lower, USD steady and Yields picked up. European & UK FUTS also lower. The rout in India’s Adani Group is weighing on sentiment while the December income report showed cooling in income, a drop in spending, and deceleration in the annual measures of inflation,  supporting the well-expected step down in the FOMC’s rate hikes to 25 bps on February 1.

“Markets could sell stocks to book profits ahead of the Fed meeting, NFP, & earnings?”

*The USD Index – bouncing between 101.50-101.90.
*EUR – sank below 1.0900 again.
*JPY – sank to test 129.23 overnight but currently settled at 129.65.
*GBP – stuck between 1.2340-1.2430.
*Stocks – The US markets are lower after last week’s rally.  US100 -0.95% at 12128, US500 traded at 4060 (-0.4%). AMEX & TSLA (+10.6% & 11.00%) leaders – INTEL & Chevron laggards (-6.4% & -4.4%). Of the 25% of the S&P that has reported so far, nearly half have beaten sales estimates, and over 70% have beaten earnings.
*Tesla +11.00% (7.2 million contracts were exchanged on Friday, according to Cboe Global Markets data, breaking the previous record of 5.2 million contracts set earlier this month and accounting for nearly 13% of all options trading)  – its best week since 2013. Cashed out $175 million just on Friday.




*USOil – jumped on the open but quick pullback below $80.00, alongside other raw materials including copper, with losses in oil also coming despite an Israeli drone strike against a target in Iran over the weekend, according to Wall Street.
*Gold – Tested$1934 in themorning before turning to $1925 support.
*BTC – Jumped to $23,854 buoyed by signs that the US Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rate increases. Bitcoin rallied by more than 40% this month.

Today – German Q4 GDP -1.1% decline; Earnings: More than 100 S&P 500 companies, including six Dow components, are slated to report earnings in the week ahead,i.e. Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Ford, McDonald’s, Pfizer etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.48%). Declined from 92.65 high, to test S2 at 91.69. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line turn negative. RSI 37 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.208, Daily ATR 1.246.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th January 2023.

Market Update – January 27 – Strong US data = Soft Landing?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The major US economic data yesterday (Q4 GDP lower; 3.9% from 4.2% but better than expected 3.6%, strong consumer spending, Durable goods, New Home Sales, Lower Inventories and Weekly Claims at new 22-mth lows) all added to the soft landing, disinflation, scenario for the US economy. A FOMC 25bp hike next week now has a 98% probability, up from 94% yesterday (2% for 50bp!). Stocks rallied, USD recovered and yields picked up from recent lows. Overnight – Asian stocks hit 8-mth highs and Core Inflation in Tokyo  hit a 42yr high at 4.3%. European & UK FUTS also higher. #TESLA gained +10.97%.

*The USD Index tested the 8-mth lows at 101.25, yesterday, rallied to test 102.00 following the data and trades back to 101.75 now. 
*EUR – sank below 1.0900 after posting 9-mth highs at 1.0929 and lows at 1.0855 yesterday before recovering to 1.0875 now.
*JPY – Sank to test 129.00 yesterday, before rallying to 130.50, back to 129.50 following the CPI data and now up to 130.00.
*GBP – Sterling has rallied over 1.2400 yesterday and again today but has struggled to hold the key resistance level. Back to 1.2370 now. 
*Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+0.61% to +1.76%) yesterday.  US500 +1.10%, (+44) 4060,  US500 FUTS trade firmer at 4062. TSLA +10.97%, CVX +4.86%, XOM +4.02% IBM -4.48%. Intel missed after hours -9.7%.  In Europe today LVMH posted strong Earnings, lifting European FUTS further.



*USOil – topped at $82.00 yesterday before dipping to $80.00. Trades at $81.40 now.
*Gold – Tested into $1949 yesterday before breaching $1922 support, rallying to $1940 and now back to $1922.
*BTC – Continues to hold the $22k handle this week, spiking to $23.7k yesterday, and holds $23k currently.

Today – US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Consumption, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.38%). Declined from a test of 161.75 on close last night as JPY outperformed in Asia, to test 160.70. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling. RSI 49.76 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.268, Daily ATR 1.808.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th January 2023.

Market Update – January 26 – BOC Pause, TESLA Beat, USD at Lows.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

HK markets reopened today and rallied +2.15%, other Asian markets were softer following a weak handover from Wall Street (opened -1.6% but recovered to close flat) Gold remains at 9-mth highs and USD at 8-mth lows. The Dovish 25bp hike from the BOC hit the CAD (USDCAD hit 1.3430 from 1.3340); – the key phrase the Bank – “expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of cumulative interest rate increases.” Speculation building that the BOC could even be raising rates before year end. #TSLA (+0.38%) Earnings beat (+5.5% after hours) record deliveries (with 1.8-2.0 possible 2023), magins held up & the 20% price cuts kicked-in. MUSK talked of deep recession and more cost cutting for year ahead.  Gold $1940, USOIL over $80.00, BTC breaches $23k.

*The USD Index has tested the 8-mth low at 101.25, today, trades at 101.40 now ahead of another busy economic data day .
*EUR – holds over 1.0900 now, posting 9-mth highs at 1.0929 today, following 1.0925 on Monday.
*JPY – Sank below support at 130.00 yesterday, and tested back to 129.00 today, before Japanese minister warning of not letting speculators dominate JPY movements. 
*GBP – Sterling has rallied over 1.2400 today to test 1.2410 resistance.
*Stocks – The US markets closed flat (-0.18% to +0.03%) yesterday amid concerns over Earnings. US500 -0.02%, (-0.73) 4016 band holds the key 4000 level US500 FUTS trade firmer at 4042. IBM. AT&T both beat, whilst Boeing numbers were mixed. In Europe today Diageo and SAP have both posted strong beats, lifting European stocks (+0.60%) at open.



*USOil – topped at $81.00 yesterday before dipping to $79.50 after inventories showed a 0.5 million barrel build compared to expectations of 1.2m after two weeks of huge builds. Trades at $80.40 now.
*Gold – Tested into $1949 earlier today from $1922 support yesterday, and trades at $1940 now.
*BTC – Continues to hold the $22k handle this week, spiking to $23.7K earlier today and holds $23k currently.

Today – US Durable Goods, GDP Advance/PCE Prices Advance (Q4), Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, Japanese CPI, SARB Policy Announcement, Earnings from Diageo (beat), STMicroelectronics, Nokia, SAP (beat) LVMH, Comcast, Intel & Visa.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.24%). Rallied from 0.8620 post BOC lows yesterday to test 0.8700 & trades at 0.8680now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 53.10 & stalling, H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0073.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th January 2023.

Market Update – January 25 – Asian markets return to hot AUD & NZD Inflation.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Many Asian markets back  (China & Taiwan remain closed all week) and higher today, NYSE suffered tech meltdown (250+ stocks paused trading on Open) US Stocks mixed following a raft of uninspiring Earnings. #MSFT had its weakest quarterly sales growth in 6-yrs but EPS beat, -0.22% on the day & -1.02% after hours. PMI data from EZ & US weak, but better than expected, UK data weak & missed. USDIndex recovered 102.00, EUR close to 9-mth highs. Hot Australian CPI (8.4% & 32-yr high vs 7.6%) puts AUD on bid & lifts outlook for hikes from RBA 7/2. AUD over 0.7100 close to 6-mth highs, NZD CPI also hotter than expected. Gold $1930, USOIL holds $80.00, BTC $22.7k.

*The USD Index rallied to 102.20, on Tuesday, before PMI & Earnings weighed and it trades at 101.60 today.
*EUR – holds over 1.0900 now, having tested below 1.0845 yesterday, following a new  9-mth high at 1.0925 on Monday.
*JPY – Hit resistance at 131.00 and support at 130.00 yesterday, back to 130.40 now.
*GBP – Sterling hit 1.2260 and 5-day lows following the weak PMI data, a revision of ONS data that showed UK to be the 2nd slowest growing of the G7 nations and record Government borrowing in December. (
*Stocks – The US markets traded very mixed yesterday amid concerns over Earnings  (-0.27% to +0.96%). US500 -0.07%, (-2.86) 4016 band holds the key 4000 level US500 FUTS trade at 4019. #MSFT had its weakest Q4 sales growth in 6-yrs but EPS beat, stock fell -0.22% on the day & -1.02% after hours.



*USOil – topped at $82.58 on Monday and declined to test $80.00 before inventories data and holds at $80.25 now.
*Gold – declined to $1918 yesterday from $1940 and trades at $1930 now.
*BTC – Continues to hold the $22k handle this week and is at $22.7k today.



Today – German Ifo, BOC Policy Announcement Earnings from ASML, AT&T, Tesla, Boeing, IBM & Abbott.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDNZD (+1.21%). Rallied from 1.0800 yesterday to trade at 1.0960 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 85.12, OB & stalling, H1 ATR 0.00205, Daily ATR 0.0070.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th January 2023.

Market Update – January 24 – Stocks in a Rally!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex settled at 101.50, Wall Street rallied on the back of tech amid ongoing hopes for a downshift in Fed rate hikes amid a potential moderation inflation this week. Fears of a recession and the potential for the worst quarter of earnings in seven years were put aside for now. Microsoft announces Tuesday but news it is investing $10 bln in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT provide strong support for investors.

*The USD Index failed to extend above 102, while it returned to 101.50, as Treasuries cheapened amid the gains in risk appetite and the pressure of upcoming supply, including $120 bln in shorter dated Treasury coupons and a hefty corporate calendar.
*EUR – is flirting with the 1.09 mark for 7th time the past 2 weeks.
*JPY – pullback to 129.70.
*GBP – holds above 1.2400. Today, UK public borrowing data showed a rises with debt financing costs – the highest borrowing figure for December on record and a much higher number than anticipated.




*Stocks – The US500 breached 4058 but closed at4019 (+1.19%), with the US100 up 11930 and the US30  +0.8%, to 33700 higher. The Nikkei rallied 1.46% and European stock futures are higher. Logitech quarterly sales fall 22% as slowdown fears bite. Microsoft announces today  but news it is investing $10 bln in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT provided strong support for investors. Advanced Micro Devices AMD 9.22% added $6.46, or 9.2%, to $76.53 and Nvidia NVDA 7.59% rose $13.54, or 7.6% to $191.93.
*USOil – steady at $81.50, as USD decline and expectations of rising Chinese demand support crude prices.
*Gold – breaks 9-month high today, extending to $1,941.40



Today – German, Eurozone, UK and US flash S&P Global PMIs are due today. New Zeleand and Australian Inflation for Q4 is also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.45%). Rejects 130.70 for a 3-day in a row. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line are close to neutral zone. RSI 42 & flat, H1 ATR 0.200, Daily ATR 1.920.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd January 2023.

Market Update – January 23 – Same story new week!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chinese New Year celebrations – many centres are closed in Asia. Treasuries sagged to end on a bearish week. USDIndex at 101.30 low as the market continued to price out a 25 bp rate hike on February 1 & BoJ’s latest attempt to keep a lid on yields, along with some profit taking. Wall Street (US100 +2.66%), 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.48%. Options expirations likely helped support the advance. A report of big layoffs at Alphabet added to recession fears and weighed initially, but signs of cost cutting enticed dip buying. Goldman Sachs slipped on reports of a DoJ probe into its consumer unit.

*The USD Index sagged at 101.32.
*EUR – is flirting with the 1.09 mark.
*JPY – sold off and USDJPY lifted to 130.21, although the USD corrected against most other currencies.
*GBP – slipped to 1.2400 again after the data this morning. The UK consumer confidence is finally improving. The FT reported that the Deloitte Consumer Tracker rose 0.6 points – the first improvement in five consecutive quarters.
*Stocks – The US100 surged a heady 2.66%, with the US500 up 1.89% and the US30 1.0% higher. The Nikkei rallied 1.3%, the Topix added around 1%. The ASX managed a 0.1% gain and European stock futures are higher. GER40 +0.5%, UK100 +0.2%.



*Citadel breaks records with $16bn profit. Ken Griffin’s hedge fund charged its investors $12bn in fees and expenses in 2022.
*USOil – tops at $81.40, as USD supports crude prices.
*Gold – retested $1,937 highs but turned to $1,920 lows since then.
*BTC – spikes to 22,800 area (September’s peak) – Risky trades?

Today – ECB’s Lagarde and Panetta speech. A quarter of the S&P 500 report this week starting with Microsoft on Tuesday.



Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.87%). Rallied to 141.90. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 77.85, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.278, Daily ATR 1.834.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th January 2023.

Market Update – January 20 – USD Wallows, Stocks Weaker, Japanese Inflation at 41-year high.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Better US data (Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manu Index) could not lift the USD (USDIndex under 102.00) & Wall St. (-0.76% to -0.96%). US hit its latest debt ceiling ($31.4 trillion) as Republicans try to rein in Biden’s spending. Potential default postponed until June 5. More Hawkish comments from FED speakers (even key Dove Vice Chair Brainard) talking 5.00%+ terminal rates failed to rally USD. Bonds picked up, the US 10-yr yield dropped to 3.41%. Asia markets are higher ahead of Lunar New Year holidays with the huge Chinese population on the move and all the risks that that entails. Inflation in Japan hit a 41-yr high at 4.0% and the PBOC held rates at 3.65%. NETFLIX shares (-3.23%) rallied +7.12% after hours after subscriber numbers beat and CEO Hastings stepped down and moves to Chair.



*The USD Index rallied from 7.5 mth lows at 101.25, on Wednesday, held 101.70 yesterday but continues to break above the 102.00  handle.   
*EUR – holds at 1.0825 now, having tested below 1.0800 yesterday, following a new  8-mth high over 1.0880 this week.
*JPY – Bounced from sub 128.00 lows at 127.80 and trades north of 129.00 following Japanese inflation data.  Yen is the weakest of the G7 currencies today.
*GBP – Sterling was unable to hold the breach of 1.2400, this week but holds its bid at 1.2330 today. UK Consumer Confidence and December Retail Sales both missed significantly. BOE Governor Bailey put a positive spin on a possible quick decline in Uk inflation.
*Stocks – The US markets were weak again yesterday (-0.76% to -0.96%). US500 -0.76%, breached the key 3900 support, the 50 SMA & test the 20 SMA) to close at 3898.  US500 FUTS hold 3900 at 3924.



*USOil – plunged to post the low of the week at $78.41 before inventories data showed a build of 8.4 million barrels (vs. an expected drawdown of 2.4 million barrels) and prices rallied to $81.50 and holds at $81.00 now.
*Gold – has hit 9-mth highs today at $1935 again today and trades at $1930 now. The spectre of CB’s reluctant to talk pivot and season factors help the key commodity.
*BTC – Continues to hold the $20k handle this week and is back to test $21k today.

Today – US Existing Home Sales, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Elderson. Earnings – Ericsson (beat) Final day of WEF in Davos.



Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.21%). Rallied from a 400 pips reversal yesterday down to 88.00 to trade at 89.35 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 22.87, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.239, Daily ATR 1.278.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th January 2023.

Market Update – January 19 – Stocks sink, USD rises after weak data & JPY bounces back.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Weak data (Retail Sales & PPI) from the US added to recession worries – More Hawkish comments from a raft of FED speakers talking 5.25-5.5% terminal rates added to a safe haven bid for the USD, Stock markets to collapse (-1.24% to -1.81%) under key technical levels and speculators to back the YEN and push the BOJ once more. Bonds rallied, the US 10-yr yield dropped to 3.75%. Asia markets are lower and rangebeound & European FUTS are also mixed. NZD unmoved from surprise the PM Ardern will step down in Febrary ahead of October elections.

*The USD Index hit a new 7-mth low at 101.25, before the data and a recovery of the  102.00  handle.   
*EUR – holds at 1.0800 now, following a new  8-mth high over 1.0870.
*JPY – Rip roaring day from 131.60 highs yesterday completely reversed and back to test 128.00 now.
*GBP – Sterling has breached 1.2400, following the US data and currently trades at 1.2335.
*Stocks – The US markets were weak into close (-1.24% to +1.81%). US500 -1.56% to 3928 and below 200 EMA and testing the 50MA. PNC -6.04%, UAL -4.57%,  US500 FUTS trade at 3937.



*USOil – rallied again to test $82.50 before the US economic data and inventories took it lower to $79.00 where it holds now.
*Gold – has tested $1900 again today from highs of $1922 yesterday, trades at $1912 now. 
*BTC – Continues to hold over $20k this week but has relinquished the $21k today to trade at $20.7k.

Today – Building Permits/Housing Starts, Weekly Claims, Norges Bank & CBRT Announcements, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Brainard & Collins, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel & Knot, Earnings – Procter & Gamble and Netflix.



Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.41%). Rejected & reversed the post BOJ rally to  92.00, tanking close to 400 pips to test 88.00 lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling. RSI 22.87, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.239, Daily ATR 1.278.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th January 2023.

Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Sticks to Accommodative Policy – YEN Dives.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

BOJ keeps YCC policy unchanged, Kuroda  “will not hesitate to increase easing if necessary”. DOVISH !! – Downgraded economic forecasts – Growth 2023 –  1.7% vs. 1.9% & 2024 1.1% vs. 1.5%. Inflation forecast raised to 1.8% vs. 1.6%. YEN tanked (USDJPY +2.6% at one point). Bonds rallied, the 10-yr JGB dropped to 0.36% from 0.52%  yesterday. US Stock markets were mixed (DOW -1.14%, Nasdaq +0.14%) as Goldman Sachs Earnings disappointed. Asia markets and European FUTS also mixed. UK CPI confirmed at 10.5% (CORE CPI 6.3%)down from 10.7% in November but still at 40-year highs.

*The USD Index recovered from under 102.00 at 101.70, to 102.60 following BoJ, back to 102.10 now. 
*EUR – holds back over 1.0800, following 1.0760 lows earlier and a rejection of this weeks high at 1.0870.
*JPY – Lows on Monday were 127.20 as speculation peaked, the Dovish “no change” outlook from Kuroda  took the pair to 131.60 highs today. Back to 130.25 now.
*GBP – Sterling has breached 1.2300, following the CPI data and currently trades at 1.2325, a 23-day high.
*Stocks – The US markets were weak into close (-1.14% to +0.14%). Mixed news from Banks –  GS -6.44%, MS +5.91%, TSLA +7.43%, RBLX +11.77% US500 FUTS trade at 4017.



*USOil – rallied again to test $81.00 following inventories and 2023 outlook upgrades.
*Gold – declined from $1930 highs on Monday to test $1900 today as USD lifts.
*BTC – Continues to hold over $20k this week and over $21k again today.

Today – US Retail Sales, PPI & Industrial Production, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Harker & Logan,. Earnings – Charles Schwab, Prologis & Kinder Morgan.




Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+2.71%). Bounced from a test of 81.00 zone on Friday and adds to gains today at 84.80 highs. Following the Dovish BOJ. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 75.36, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.354, Daily ATR 1.301.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th January 2023.

Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds at 7-mth lows, Mixed data from China & UK.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chinese GDP for 2022 at 3.0% missed expectations (5.5%) significantly and represented the slowest growth for the world’s second largest economy since 1976 and the end of the austerity of Mao Zedong. Q4 GDP beat expectations at 2.9% vs 1.8% but was still very weak. Retail Sales  & Unemployment also beat at -1.8% vs. -9.5% and 5.5% vs. 5.8%, respectively. Japanese 10-yr yields still trade over the 0.50% above the BOJ ceiling ahead of BOJ tomorrow. The UK Jobs market remains v tight (Unemployment 3.7%) – Earnings up (6.4% vs 6.1%) but still way short of Inflation. (CPI & Retails Sales data tomorrow). German HICP inflation confirmed & unchanged at 9.6%.

*The USD Index recovered from under 102.00 at 101.70, to 102.15 now.
*EUR – holds over 1.0800. The pair touched 1.0875 on Monday (9-mth highs) and trades back to 1.0820 now.
*JPY – dipped again touching 127.20 lows, but is now back over 128.00 and has tested 128.80 today.
*GBP – Sterling tested 1.2290, slipped back to 1.2160 lows and has recovered 1.2200 following the UK data.
*Stocks – The US markets closed higher on Friday (+0.33-0.71%), following generally good Banking Earnings, tempered by cautious outlooks and job losses. US500 FUTS trade at 4002.
*USOil – rallied again to test $80.00 lbut has since slipped to $79.00 following the Chinese data. 
*Gold – the Bid remains strong as $1900 holds, and $1930 was tested yesterday, the precious metal is back to $1910 now.
*BTC – Weak USD helps to lift prices over $20k and holds over $21k today.

Today – Canadian CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Centeno & Chinese Vice Premier Liu. Earnings – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & United Airlines.




Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.53%). Bounced from a test of 137.50 zone on Friday and adds to gains today at 139.20 but is down from 149.00 highs in December. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 66.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.230, Daily ATR 1.856.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.