Events to Look Out For Next Week.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
It’s a holiday shortened week ahead as most markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holidays, however Inflation and Banks remain the focal point. The advent of a new month and new quarter could further improve risk appetite despite some ongoing jitters in regional banks, still tight jobless claims, and hawkish central bankers. Next week’s heavy dose of global data releases includes the RBA and RBNZ rate decision and the employment data from Canada, while US NFP is in the spotlight.
Monday – 03 April 2023
*Consumer Price Index and Core (CHF, GMT 06:30) – Swiss inflation for March is expected to ease at 0.4% from 1.9% previously.
*ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to slip to 47.5 in March, after a rise to 47.7 from a 3-year low of 47.4 in January.
Tuesday – 04 April 2023
*OPEC-JMMC meeting attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations.
*Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) – The RBA is considering a pause on rate rises, according to the minutes to the March 7 meeting. They flagged that the board will consider keeping the cash rate on hold at 3.6% in April, if the economy shows signs of softening. “Members agreed to consider the case for a pause at the following meeting recognising that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for the economy”. “At what point it will be appropriate to pause will be determined by the data and the board’s assessment of the outlook”.
Wednesday – 05 April 2023
*Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (NZD, GMT 02:00) – As the high inflation continues the RBNZ is expected to continue hiking, with markets pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25 bps rate hike to 5%. New Zealand’s economy is expected to have shrunk 0.3% in Q1 following a 0.6% growth last quarter, indicating a mild recession.
*ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – ADP is expected to climb to 200K in March after the 242K seen in February.
*ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI should ease to 54.8 from 55.1, versus a 3-year low of 49.2 in December. We’re seeing a 16-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust peaks in November of 2021, with many of the various component categories now in contraction territory. Producers are facing big headwinds from elevated interest rates, recession fears, and now a banking crisis, but have benefited from the need to rebuild inventories following a prolonged period of supply chain disruptions.
Thursday – 06 April 2023
*Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s employment change is anticipated to contract by -4.2k in March from 21.8K growth last month. Unemployment and participation rate are seen unchanged.
Friday – 07 April 2023
*Good Friday – The stock and bond markets will both be closed.
*Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 220K March nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 311k in February. A continued tight path for claims in March implies some upside payroll risk. The jobless rate should hold steady at 3.6% from February, up from the 54-year low of 3.4% (3.43%) in January. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.2% after a -0.1% February drop, while the workweek holds steady at 34.5. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in January, while the y/y wage gain should fall to 4.3% from 4.6%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
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