Topic: HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services. - page 25. (Read 6643 times)

Date : 8th September 2022.

Market Update – September 8 – Stocks Rise, USD Slips, Oil Tanks.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – spiked to 110.75, before slipping below 110.00 yesterday, but still holds the bid close to 20-year highs and trades at 109.50 now. Yields also slipped, but the curve remains inverted. Fed Fund Futures now at 79%/21% for 75bp vs. 50 bp September 21. Fedspeak Collins  – inflation at 2% is the Fed’s “Job One,” Vice Chair Brainard said tight monetary policy will continue “for as long as it takes to get inflation down.”
*EUR – ECB action today and 75bp also in the frame.  EUR rallied back to Parity yesterday and trades at  1.0093 now. EU plans a price cap on Russian gas prices – Putin warns of “winter freeze”. 
*JPY rallies again (yet more new 24-year highs) tested to 145.00 & holds at 143.50. Japan MOF, FSA, and BOJ to hold meeting at 0745 GMT today.
*GBP new 37-year lows tested 1.1400 yesterday, back to 1.1515 now. New PM Truss set to announce £100bln emergency energy plan, via massive increase in government borrowing.
*Stocks US stocks rallied as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 3979). Nasdaq best performer (+2.14%). TWTR +6.6%, TSLA +3.38%, Globalstar +21% (new satellite partner for APPLE’s new iPhone 14, Watch 8 Ultra and new AirPods (no news on new services). Share price unmoved after hours.



*USOil tanked (-5%+) on Russia/EU situation; and global outlook. Trades at $82.65 now from overnight lows at $81.40 now. Summer highs were north of $123.50.
*Gold – also rallied from lows under $1700 at  $1691, to $1718.60 now.
*BTC – plunged to 18.5k lows yesterday and remains under 20k at 19.3k now.

Overnight & Today – US Weekly Claims, ECB Announcement, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Kashkari & BoC’s Rogers.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.31%). Continues to decline, yesterday breaking under 1.1300 to 1.1220 lows which are being re-tested now. MAs aligning lower,  MACD histogram negative & signal line neutral, RSI 39.90,  H1 ATR 0.00137, Daily ATR 0.00814.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th September 2022.

Market Update – September 7 – King Dollar; Yen crushed.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – remains above 110 and the ongoing strength of the dollar, fueled by aggressive Fed hikes and the firm push back against inflation continues to weigh on stock markets, as traders assess recession risks amid Europe the escalating energy crisis in Europe.
*Bonds sold off hard with yields surging double digits and Wall Street stumbled amid renewed concerns over inflation, the FOMC’s hawkish response, and the concomitant threat to growth – amid a deluge of corporate debt offerings and as ISM services index increase to 56.9 further presser yields higher.
*20 companies slated bond offerings totaling an estimated $30 billion to $40 billion.
*EUR – break 0.9900 area than expected German orders numbers at the start of the session, only added to signs that Europe is heading for a recession but EUR trades at 0.9957 now. –  German industrial production contracted – less than feared and at the same time the June number was revised up.
*JPY crushed! USDJPY at 144.35.
*GBP – 1.1490. Eyes to parliamentary testimony from the Bank of England governor.
*Stocks – Asian stocks fell to 2-year low on the back of disappointing Chinese trade number (China’s exports slowed in August). US100 fell -0.74% and the US30 and US500 slid -0.55% and -0.41%, respectively.
*Oil at $85.60
*Gold – extends for a 2nd day below $1700

Corporate bond update: there has been a flood of issuance to kick off September. It looks like corporations are jumping in while the going still looks relatively good and before rates go up further. Nestle plans a hefty 5-part sale with 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, and 30-year coupons. Walmart announced a $5 bln 4-part deal to include a $1.75 bln 3-year, a $1 bln 5-year, a $1.25 bln 10-year and a $1 bln 30-year. Lowe’s plans a $4.75 bln 4-tranche deal with 3-, 10-, 30-, and 40-year tranches. MUFG has a $4.4 bln 4-parter including 3NC2 fixed and FRN, a 6NC5, and an 11NC10. John Deere Capital is selling $2.25 bln in 3-, 5-, and 10-year notes. There is a $2.3 bln 4-parter from Dollar General with 2-, 4-, 10-, and 30-year tranches. McDonald’s announced a $1.5 bln 10- and 30-year. Target has a $1 bln 10-year. ORIX has a $1 bln 2-oarter. And this is not even the full list. The explosion of offerings has added to the selling pressures on Treasuries. Rates are up double digits with the 10-year 15 bps cheaper at 3.34%.

Today - Attention will be on the BOC’s rate decision and BOE Monetary Policy Report Hearings along with BOE Governor Bailey testimony. Of importance will be remarks from VC Brainard, Michael Barr who will discuss financial systems. Barkin and Mester speak at an MIT event and the US trade deficit will also be important for what it says about global activity.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.97%) at record highs, 146.48. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 83, H1 ATR 0.284, Daily ATR 1.116.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th September 2022.

Market Update – September 6 – Eyes on the deepening EU energy crisis.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – pulled back to 109.60 but still highlighting that the USD remains the haven asset of choice for now. Yields are on the rise again and stocks are struggling as the US returns from the holiday and markets keep a close eye on the deepening energy crisis in Europe and China’s Covid situation as the ECB meeting on Thursday comes into view. US 10-year rate at 3.24% 5.3 bp higher than on Friday.
*EUR – weaker than expected German orders numbers at the start of the session, only added to signs that Europe is heading for a recession but EUR trades at 0.9957 now.
*JPY remained under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 24-year highs at 141.20.
*GBP at 1.1587 after on Monday near its weakest level in decades in a sign of faltering investor sentiment in UK markets as Liz Truss prepares to take the reins as prime minister.
*AUD -RBA raised rates by 50 bp and signalled further rate hikes to come but noted that it is not on a pre-set path. AUDUSD is below 0.68 following a spike to 0.6832.
*Stocks – GER40 & UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. Asian markets traded narrowly mixed.
*Oil at $88.75. OPEC+ announced an output cut of 100K barrels per day and amid signs that a revival of Iran’s nuclear deal has run into difficulties.
*Gold – rose to $1726.80.

Overnight – RBA raised rates by 50 bp & weaker than expected German factory orders.

Today - UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance, US ISM Services PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY(+1.14%). Spiked to 1-month peak at 163.80. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 83, H1 ATR 0.3130, Daily ATR 1.28.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th September 2022.

Market Update – September 5.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – holds at 110.25 highs. Yields plunged after NFP and as the curve bull steepened. Asian markets struggled after Wall Street closed in negative territory following news that Russia won’t be re-opening gas deliveries to Europe via Nord Stream 1 as scheduled.
*EUR – 20-year lows – tumbled back below parity, today’s low at 0.9876 as the standoff with Russia continues.
*JPY holds at 140 area.
*GBP fell to 1.1442, the weakest since March 1985.
*Stocks – US closed for Labour Day today. GER40 & UK100 are down -3% and -1% respectively this morning, with recession concerns deepening. ASX and Nikkei closed narrowly mixed. Major stock markets are posting 1-month declines from nearly -2% (TSX) to over -8% (NASDAQ).
*Oil got a boost from the jump in gas prices as traders look ahead to the OPEC+ meeting. USOIL is at $88.45 from $85.70.
*Gold – also down and within $1.50 of $1700 earlier, trades at $1707 now.
*BTC – 19.4K-20.5K.

Weekend – Gazprom announced on Friday that the main pipeline to Germany would remain closed indefinitely, against expectations of a restart on Saturday after three days of maintenance work.

Today - Today – All eyes will be on the monetary policy decisions from the ECB, BoC, RBA.Final readings for Eurozone and UK Services and Composite PMs are due today. In the UK the Conservative Party is set to announce that Liz Truss won the leadership contest and will succeed Boris Johnson as the next Prime Minister for the UK.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD(-0.48%) found a near term support at 0.9877. MAs aligning lower, MACD lines extend southwards, RSI 38,  H1 ATR 0.00199, Daily ATR 0.00996.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd September 2022.

Market Update – September 2 – USD Holds at Highs, Stocks stem losses.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – spiked to 109.95 highs yesterday and holds the BID @109.50 now. A strong NFP could lift the USD even higher. A weak number could prick the USD bubble from 20-yr highs. Strong Weekly Claims and PMI’s added to USD demand. Fed Fund Futures now at 74%/26% for 75bp vs. 50 bp at next Fed meeting.



*EUR – ECB action expected next week, but EUR remains under Parity lows of 0.9910, trades at 0.9970 now.
*JPY rallies again (new 24 yr highs) broke 140.00 & holds at 140.30 BOJ holding accommodative policy line, & yield differentials driving trend.
*GBP new multi-year lows under 1.1500 yesterday, back to 1.1550 now. New PM next week.
*Stocks US stocks halted 4-day slide (S&P500 3966).  Nvidia -7.67%, AMD -3% weighed again. Futs. flat at 3968 now.



*Oil down again on weak outlook,  lows at $86.25 and trades at $88.20 now.
*Gold – also down under $1700 to $1688 lows, back to $1702 now.
*BTC – recovers 20k again today, from 19.5k lows yesterday.



Overnight – NZD Trade Balance  missed (-2.4% vs 0.6%)  German Trade Balance  better than expected (see below).



Today – US NFP & Factory Orders, EZ Producer Prices.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.68%). Continued to recover from weekly lows at 1.6185 on Tuesday to 1.6450 today, next resistance 1.6485.  MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 63.62,  H1 ATR 0.00238, Daily ATR 0.01615.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st September 2022.

Market Update – September 1 – New Month Same Story – Dollar Bid.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – holds at 109.00 highs from a test of 108.50 support. Yields rallied again, Dollar on the frontfoot ahead of NFP & Labor Day Holiday, ADP (following revisions to calculation) big miss 132k vs 300k).  Chengdu (120 million) in new lockdown.
*EUR – Record Inflation (9.1%) pressures ECB action (40% chance of 75bp rise next week) – EUR holds at 1.0018.
*JPY rallies again (new 24 yr highs) eyes key 140.00 & trades; 139.50 BOJ holding accommodative policy line. 
*GBP new pandemic era lows under 1.1600 now, to 1.1568 lows. 
*Stocks US stocks weak again (S&P500 -31.00pts (-0.78%) 3955).  Energy & Tech stocks led the decline again as weak news from Nvidia, Tencent & AMD weighed. Futs. -1% at 3930 now.
*Oil down again on weake outlook, under $90.00 and trades at $88.90 now.
*Gold – also down and within $1.50 of $1700 earlier, trades at $1707 now.
*BTC – under 20k again today.



Overnight – CNY Manufacturing PMI data missed (49.5) and returns to contraction. German Retail Sales better than expected (1.9% vs. 0.0%).



Today – EZ, UK & US Manufacturing PMIs, German Retail Sales, Swiss CPI, EZ Unemployment, US ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Speech from Fed’s Bostic.



Biggest FX Mover (06:30 GMT) EURCHF (-0.48%). Rejected 0.9830 today following 5-day rally from 0.9559, trades at 0.9786. MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram positive but signal line falling, RSI 43.00,  H1 ATR 0.00132, Daily ATR 0.000723.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st August 2022.

Market Update – August 31 – Stocks & Oil Tank, Yields Rally.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – remains capped at 109.00 with support at 108.20 today. Tight JOLTS report adds to pressure for 75 bp next month; Fed Fund Futures now sit at 68.5%. 2yr yields traded to 15 yr highs. AUD outperformed overnight.
*EUR – German Inflation at near 50-yr highs, pressures ECB action and lifts EUR to 1.0033
*JPY holds between 139.00 & 138.00 having breached 138.00 Monday.
*GBP hit pandemic era lows (March 2020) yesterday at 1.1620. Recovered to 1.1675 now. 
*Stocks US stocks weak again (S&P500 -44.00pts (-1.10%) 3986).  Under 4k & 24-day low & under 50-day MA. Energy & Tech stocks led the decline. Futs. 4014 now.
*Oil lost over 5% yesterday but has recovered; API inventories better than expected. Touched $90.50 yesterday up to $92.50 now.
*Gold – crashed from resistance at $1736 and trades at support ($1724) now.
*BTC – tested Monday’s 33-day low ($19.5k) again yesterday, back over 20k now at 20.3k.

Overnight – Asian equity markets squeezed lower following weak Wall Street,  European FUTS tick higher.  NZD Strong Building Permits  JPY Retail data also better than expected CNY PMI data beat but weaker than last month. Manufacturing (49.4) remains in contraction. German Import Prices and French CPI (m/m)  weaker than expected. (1.4% & 0.4% respectively).



Today – German Import Prices & Unemployment, EZ CPI, Canadian GDP, US ADP & Chicago PMI, Speeches from Fed’s Mester & Bostic.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.68%). Remains volatile, (100+ pip mover yesterday). Latest move; a rally from 0.6850 support to trade at 0.6900 resistance. MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram negative but signal line rising, RSI 56.00,  H1 ATR 0.00128, Daily ATR 0.00823.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th August 2022.

Daily Market update: 30 August 2022.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Dollar pulls back off fresh 20-year highs as market prices in a more hawkish ECB.   

Dollar Index

Monday’s London session proved to be a battleground won by the Dollar as it added to Friday’s gains, hitting levels last traded in September 2002. A Key driver in this exuberance is the ever-increasing probability of a 75-basis point rate hike as opposed to a 50-basis point rate hike at the next FED meeting in September. This in turn has caused yields to rise, with the 2-year yield hitting fresh 5-year highs near 3.5% and ultimately gave the dollar its appeal to continue its upward trajectory.



Technical Analysis: H4

In terms of market structure, last week saw the completion of the larger bullish continuation pattern in the form of the falling wedge type structure that found support from the 104.00 level and produced an impulsive wave that went on to revisit the 109.00 area last week Friday before setting a new high just under 109.50.

Intra-day Overview: Current price action in Monday’s trading session broke through the previous high and created fresh 20-year highs before retreating into the range finding support within the 108.00 range. Henceforth buyers could push the index to continue its bull run, or on the flipside, sellers could be well positioned at the fresh 20-year highs set in Monday morning’s London session and could challenge buy pressure.

Stocks
At the time of writing, US Stocks have continued to sell off since Friday’s hawkish comments signalled a longer period of sustained higher interest rates.

*Dow Jones: Reacted by adding to the losses from last week by 0.07%.
*S&P 500: Pressure continued and added to losses from last week by 0.11%.
*Nasdaq: Was down on Monday by 0.49%.

Currencies

*Euro: Intraday overview: Price was buoyed by a pullback in the Dollar on Monday morning, which gave the Euro some impetus to claw back some of the losses made on Friday, retesting the upper end of the range at the 1.00291 area in the current bearish continuation structure.
*Pound: Intraday overview: The 1.16481 area was the floor that supported a pullback on Monday morning, as the Pound clawed back some of the losses from Friday. The Intraday high was set around the 1.17432 area.

Commodities

*Gold: Intraday overview: The $1 720 area was the floor that supported a pullback on Monday morning, helping Gold claw back some of the losses seen on Friday. The intraday high was set around $1 745.

*Oil: On the back of the Saudis’ comments around their inclination towards slowing down production, the price of Brent hit $100 and shows the possibility of geopolitical factors supporting the bullish momentum for now, while the current economic outlook, and central banks’ monetary policies, are supporting a bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin

In the wake of Bitcoin falling below the psychological $20 000 level, there could be more support around the corner as crypto adoption seems to be getting “a shot in the arm” with the Monetary Authority of Singapore considering implementing certain regulations around leverage when it comes to cryptocurrencies. This initiative is aimed to protect inexperienced consumers as opposed to banning the crypto market altogether.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NASDAQ (-3.9%). Dropped to 12387$ from 13206$.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ofentse Waisi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th August 2022.

Daily Market update: 29 August 2022.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Dollar on the front foot on the back of hawkish Jackson Hole comments by FED chair Powell.

Dollar Index

The dollar index ended Friday’s trading session with some exuberance, closing at the 108.73 level following a sustained hawkish tone from FED chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. His message was consistent with the narrative that the FED isn’t quite done yet fighting off inflation and a possible recession. Which essentially means Americans are going to have to brace for more interest rate hikes and consequently slower growth in the economy and a weaker job market.



Technical Analysis:

In terms of market structure, last week saw the completion of the larger bullish continuation pattern (falling wedge) that found support from the 104.00 level and produced an impulsive wave that went on to revisit the 109.00 area last week. Considering current price action and how it is approaching the 20-year highs in the form of a smaller bullish continuation pattern (descending channel), it’s an increasing probability that price could continue beyond the 109.00 key level henceforth.

Stocks

On the back of the dollar strength, there was a selloff in US Stocks, with a 3% decline on the prospect of the FED remaining firm on a sustained period of further rate hikes.

*Dow: Reacted to the statements by plunging 3% (just over 1000 points) on the day.
*S&P 500: Reacted to the statements and fell by 3.4%.
*Nasdaq: Being heavily linked to the technology sector, the Nasdaq is particularly more sensitive to interest rate hikes and reacted by falling 3.9%.

Currencies

*Euro: EURUSD slipped back to below parity levels, closing the day at 0.99654.
*Pound: GBPUSD closed the day retesting the weekly low at 1.17391 after hitting a session high at 1.1900.

Commodities

*Gold: Remained pressured by Powell’s comments despite a momentary bounce earlier in the week, ending Friday’s session at the $1 738 mark.

*Oil: The black gold remained resilient last week, closing the week buoyed by verbal intervention from the Saudis concerning the possibility of cutting oil production. This potentially lends credence to the idea that the Saudis are unable to tolerate a price below $90 a barrel at the present moment.

Bitcoin

The leading cryptocurrency broke through the psychological $20 000 mark as bears largely drove the market last week, seeing a 20% decline in a week from a high of $25 211.

An interesting sidenote going into September is that Bitcoin has produced a bearish market environment in price for each of the past four months in the year. It’ll be interesting to see how it performs going into the new month and the last part of the year.

Today – Speeches from ECB’s Lane, Fed Vice Chair Brainard.

Economic Calendar



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NASDAQ (-3.9%). Dropped to 12387$ from 13206$.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ofentse Waisi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th August 2022.

Market Update – August 26.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* USDIndex – back in demand ahead of Powell at Jackson Hole and as markets speculated on 100 bps in ECB hikes by October, though it recovered some to finish at 108.64.
* EUR – Remains under parity. German GfK consumer confidence plunged to -36.5, which could keep Euro underpinned.
* JPY has lifted to 137.00, GBP steady below 1.1800.
* AUD fell 0.4% below the psychological level of $0.7 & NZD fell 0.5%, giving up some of the strong gains in the previous day. The AUD has been performing better against the battered European currencies.
* Stocks: US stocks are in the red with concern over aggressive tightening and a rise in yields capping gains (USA100 rallied 0.41%, with the USA500 up 0.29%, and the USA30 0.18% higher). Nikkei and ASX are up 0.8% and 0.5% after a strong close on Wall Street. GER40 and UK100 futures have lifted 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
* Oil slumped by about $2 a barrel on the possible return of sanctioned Iranian oil exports and on worries about the impact on fuel demand from rising USinterest rates. Down to $92.08.
* Gold – bounced from support at $1751.80  to $1758.70.



Today – US PCE, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell Speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (–0.45%). Dropped to 0.6195 from 0.6250. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram negative & signal line falling, RSI 36.74 & dropping, H1 ATR 0.00089.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th August 2022.

Market Update – August 25 – USD Slips, Stocks Gain – Jackson Hole Ahead.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* USDIndex – another volatile day – down from 109.00 declined to 108.20 after mixed Durable Goods & more Housing Data. – Jackson Hole in focus.
* EUR – Remains weighed by energy crisis and record high GAS prices. German GDP helps a lift back to 1.000, but in 4th day below this key level.
* JPY holds between 137.00 & 136.00 having failed to breach 137.00 yesterday.
* GBP also weighed by energy crisis & widening strike action.Trades at 1.1850 with 1.1800 now support.
* Stocks US stocks gained into close. (S&P500 +12.00pts (+0.3%) 4140) – Biggest movers – Peloton & BBBY (+20 & +18%) ; Revlon & Nordstrom (-11% & –20%). Nvidia -4.56% after hours following Earnings miss.
* Oil continued to rally, more chatter of OPEC+ production cuts, BP closing refineries due to fires and a big fall in inventories.  Up 0.5% over $95 to $95.60.
* Gold – bounced from support at $1736 and $1745 and trades at $1758.
* BTC – over 21-21.5K range at 21.6k.



Overnight – Asian equity markets recovered after nine days lower, European FUTS also higher. NZD Retail Sales miss significantly (-2.3% vs. 1.7%), JPY SPPI misses (2.1% vs. 2.2%) German Final Q2 GDP a tick better at (0.1% vs. 0.0%).



Today – German Ifo, US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim, Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB, CBRT & Banxico Minutes.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.88%). Rally from 0.6850 & 0.6900 support continues, trades at 0.6975 now.MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 73.60 OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.00137, Daily ATR 0.00823.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th August 2022.

Market Update – August 24 – USD Holds at Highs, Stocks Slip, Oil Rallies.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

* USDIndex – volatile day – new 20-yr highs at 109.20 declined to 108.00 after weak PMI & Housing Data before Kashkari “biggest fear is inflation will be more persistent”.
* EUR – Weighed by weak PMI & energy crisis and 3 day shutdown of Nord Stream 1, 3rd day under Parity (1.000) at 0.9940.
* JPY holds between 137.00 & 136.00
* GBP also weighed by weak PMI data, energy crisis, weak government & widening strike action.Trades at 1.1800
* Stocks US stocks flat into close. (S&P500 -9.26pts (-0.22%) 4128) – Biggest movers – Oil stocks +4-6%, TWTR -7.32%.
* Oil continued to rally, moved +4% Tuesday to $94.00 following Saudi “CUTTING production” comments.
* Gold – support at $1736 trades at $1745
* BTC – ranging between 21k & 21.5K.



Overnight – Asian equity markets fell for an eighth straight day. European FUTS also lower.

Today – US Durable Goods.





Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.45%). Rejected 94.80 again yesterday and trades under 94.40 now. MAs aligning lower,  MACD histogram negative & signal line falling, RSI 40.36 & falling, H1 ATR 0.153, Daily ATR 0.96.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th August 2022.

Market Update – August 12.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex lifted to 105 after dropping to a low of 104.50 after the early data, but is still heading for a weekly loss amid trimmed back expectations for the Fed’s tightening path. US Yields down, but the curve inverted further as the short end underperformed, Yields in Australia and to a lesser extent New Zealand backed up today. US Stocks closed mixed, while in Asia, Stocks in Japan rallied in catch up trade on their return from yesterday’s holiday, but elsewhere the picture looked patchy overnight. The ASX lost -0.5% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.37% and down -0.06% respectively, after a narrowly mixed close on Wall Street. European and US futures are posting modest gains though. Oil pushed up to the $94 handle after the IEA upgraded its demand outlook yesterday, Gold sank to $1790 and BTC steady.

Fed’s Daly told Bloomberg yesterday that there is an improvement in inflation numbers, but repeated that its too early to declare victory over inflation, repeating that her base case is for a half-percentage point hike at the next meeting.

UK GDP contracted -0.1% q/q in the second quarter of the year, in line with our forecast and a tad less bleak than Bloomberg consensus, which predicted a contraction of -0.2% q/q. The -0.6% m/m decline in the monthly GDP number for June was sobering though and backed the BoE’s bleak outlook for the economy, which seems to be heading for a recession amid the cost of living crisis, the fallout from Brexit and political turmoil in Westminster.

* USDIndex dropped to a low of 104.50 after the early data, but bounced to 105.18 by the close 4%.
* Equities – USA100 off -0.58%, additionally hurt by the run up in rates. The USA500 was -0.07% lower, and the USA30 was 0.08% firmer.
* Yields 10-year rate closed 12 bps higher at 2.89%. The 30-year cheapened 14 bps to 3.165%. The 2-year was up 2 bps to 3.235%. The curve was less inverted at -35 bps versus -44 bps Wednesday.
* Oil – $93.90, Brent at $99.22 per barrel, after the IEA upgraded its demand outlook yesterday.
* Gold –has been capped and it saw a low of $1783.67, before backing up to now $1790.87, as Treasury yields nudged lower.
Bitcoin struggling to break 25K resistance.
* FX Markets – EURUSD down to 1.0300, USDJPY steady at 133.35 and Cable holds at 1.2170 floor.

Today – US Michigan Index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.70%) back to July’s highs at 86.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines extending higher, RSI 72.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.167, Daily ATR 0.976. Key Resistance at 86.56.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th August 2022.

Market Update – August 11 – USD & Yields tank, Stocks rally as US CPI cools.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex tanked to 104.50 from 106.20, before recovering, Yields & the VIX dropped to 4 mth lows and Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.89%, now +20% from June lows). Cooler US CPI was the catalyst and expectations the FED is less likely to have to raise rates by 75 bp in September. Asian markets followed through too, (Hang Seng +2.08%,  Nikkei closed). European FUTS also higher. Oil pushed up to the $92 handle, Gold sank to $1786 and BTC moved higher again to breach $24K area.

Fedspeak – voiced caution – Kashkari now a BIG HAWK talked of being “far, far away from declaring victory over inflation” and wants at least another 140 bp this year and sees rates topping at 4.4% in 2023, Evans (centrist  sees rates at 3.4% by December and Daly “not anywhere near done with inflation battle”. Cleveland Fed – “inflationary pressures remain broad based”.

* USDIndex plunged -1.6% as broad based USD selling took hold. More hawkish Fed comments helped lift the index to 105.20 now. AUD underperformed in Asian session.
* Equities – USA500 closed up 87.77pts (+2.13%) (4210), US500FUTS at 4227 now. DIS Big beat, Disney+ bigger than NETFLIX! & will raise prices from December – Shares up 3.98% on Wednesday & 6.85% after hours. Big tech all closed up 2%+.
* Yields 10-year yield sank but recovered to 2.78% at close. The 2/10yr. yield curve also remained firmly inverted at 43.8 bp. 
* Oil – rallied to test 200-hr MA at $92.00, holds the zone now. 
* Gold – rallied & spiked to $1800 resistance again before declining back under to support at $1788, 20-day MA now $1766.
* Bitcoin has surged to $24.5K now from $22.6k lows yesterday.
* FX Markets – EURUSD breached 1.0350 trades at 1.0300, USDJPY tanked from 135.00 pivot to 132.00 back to 132.70 now and Cable did the same rallying from 1.2080, pivot to 1.2260 resistance & back to 1.2215 now.

Today – US Weekly Claims & PPI, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, Banxico Policy Announcement.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.51%). Recovery from spike lower yesterday continues, back to 0.6040 now from 0.5945.  MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram now positive & signal line neutral, RSI 61.57 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00080, Daily ATR 0.00558.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th August 2022.

Market Update – August 10 – Dollar, Stocks & Yields Consolidate Ahead of CPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex slipped under 106.00, yesterday before again recovering to 106.20. US Stocks traded lower all day – dragged down by Semiconductors (NASDAQ -1.19%). MUSK to sell another $6.9 bn worth of TSLA stock (-2.44%). Intel -2.43%, NVDA -3.97%, Roblox  -3.17%, OXY +3.95%. Asian markets lower too (Hang Seng -2.45%,  Nikkei -0.68%). European FUTS also lower.  Yields rose into close +1.16% (10yr 2.797%),  Oil has declined back under the $90 handle, Gold sank to $1788 support and BTC has moved back $22.7K area.

Biden announces a $280bn investment in high tech to compete with China; China maintains drills and firing around Taiwan.

* USDIndex tested down to 105.80 but has recovered the 106.00-20 range today ahead of US CPI later. AUD underperformed in Asian session.
* Equities – USA500 closed down -17.59pts (-0.42%) (4122), US500FUTS at 4118 now. 100 MA at 4100.
* Yields 10-year yield rose into close as USD recovered. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 45bp inverted yesterday. 10yr trades down -0.25% at 2.79% now.
* Oil – rallied to test 200-hr MA at $92.60 before declining to $89.60 now. 
* Gold – rallied & spiked to $1800 resistance before declining back to support at $1788 again. 20-day MA now $1761.
* Bitcoin’s surge to $24.2K Monday; declined further today to $22.6 earlier, back to test $23k now.
*  FX Markets – EURUSD holds over 1.02000, at 1.0210, USDJPY continues to pivots around 135.00 and Cable does the same around 1.2080, in thin August markets.

Overnight - JPY  PPI missed  (8.6% vs 9.4%), China CPI & PPI both weaker too (2.7% vs 2.9% & 4.2% vs 6.1%) respectively. German CPI (Final) in line 0.9% m/m & 8.5% y/y.

Today – US CPI,  Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Evans & Kashkari. Earnings from Disney, Honda, Fox, Aviva, Evonik & E.ON.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%). Continued its bounce from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. Testing 1.4700 zone now. MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram now positive & signal line rising, RSI 61.83 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00148, Daily ATR 0.0132.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th August 2022.

Market Update – August 9 – USD & Stocks Dip.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex slipped to test 106.00, before recovering to 106.20. US Stocks opened positively but closed flat for the day. NVDA –6.3%, Novavax -5.01%, AMC +8.03%, GM +4.16%. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng flat,  Nikkei -0.88%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields fell into close (10yr 2.7657%),  Oil bounces close to 2% to recoup the $90 handle, Gold rallied over 1% from $1770 support and BTC moved up to test key $24K area.

China continues exercises around Taiwan for 6th day, Russia installs more troops around captured key Ukrainian nuclear power plant, as US promises Ukraine another $1 billion in military aid.

Week Ahead: Highlight of the week is US CPI tomorrow which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and  8.7% y/y.

* USDIndex tested down to 106.00 after blockbuster NFP on Friday and holds 106.20 now. AUD & NZD underperformed in Asian session.
* Equities – USA500 closed flat -5.13pts (-0.12%) (4140), tested & rejected 4175 resistance intraday. US500FUTS at 4144 now. 100 MA at 4100.
* Yields 10-year yield fell into close as Treasuries eased with USD. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 44bp inverted yesterday. 10yr closed 2.765%, trades at   2.76% now.
* Oil – rallied from 6-month lows under $87.00 again to test last weeks support at $90.70,  holds at $90.00.
* Gold – rallied from $1770, support to $1788 highs now. 20-day MA $1757.
* Bitcoin surged to $24.2K Monday, before trading at  $23.7k now.
* FX Markets – EURUSD back over 1.02000, USDJPY rejected 135.50 Monday back to 135.00 now. Cable tested up to 1.2130 back to 1.2080 support now.

Overnight - Highlight of the week is US CPI tomorrow which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and  8.7% y/y.

Today – EIA STEO, Supply from UK, Germany & US.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.36%). Bounced from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. MAs aligning higher,  MACD histogram negative but signal line rising, RSI 53.62 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.0134.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th August 2022.

Market Update – August 8 – USD holds post NFP bid.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex held onto NFP inspired bid trades at 106.40, from 106.80.  NFP big beat across the board; headline more than double expectations at 528K, June revised 26K higher, Unemployment fell (3.5%) and Earnings rose (5.2%) = pressure back on Fed for 75bp hike in Sept. Recession – what Recession? US Stocks slipped led by tech. TSLA –6.6% (3-1 stock split 25/8), TWTR +3.56%, META –2.00%, LYFT +16.8% ($1bn profit expected 2024), AMZN -1.2% (to buy iRobot $1.7bn) Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -1.02%, Nikkei +0.29%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields rallied (10yr 2.8287%)  Oil under $90, Gold under $1770  and BTC moved up to $23.5k.

Berkshire Hathaway posted $43.8 bn loss on stock market declines. MUSK wants TWTR deal to go ahead if they can prove the % of real accounts, wants public debate with TWTR CEO. FED’s Bowman expects “more 75bp hikes”. CFTC Net Longs in USD reduced last week. Chinese exports hit record 5- mth high Trade balance back over $101 bn. Biden gets his $430bn Climate, Healthcare & Tax Bill through the Senate, China continues exercises around Taiwan for 5th day.

Week Ahead: Highlight will be US CPI on Wednesday which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and  8.7% y/y.

* USDIndex rallied to 106.80 post NFP holds at 106.45 now. YEN underperformed in Asian session.
* Equities – USA500 closed lower -6.75 pts (+-0.16%) (4145), US500FUTS at 4150 now. 4175 key resistance remains. S&P500 gained +0.4% for the week, NASDAQ +2.2%.
* Yields 10-year yield rallied into close. The 2/10yr. yield curve is now 40bp inverted. 30yr back over 3.00%.   
* Oil – declined to $86.96 Friday back to $89.60 now and remains under $90.00.
* Gold – topped at $1794 (50 day MA) in early Friday trades before tanking to under $1770. Trades at $1775 now, 20-day MA $1757.
* Bitcoin dipped to $22.7K Friday, before strong weekend rally, trades at $23.7k now.
* FX Markets – EURUSD down to 1.0177, USDJPY rallied 1.57% on Friday – trades at 135.50 now. Cable tested to important 1.2000 zone on Friday – recovered to 1.2080 now.

Overnight – JPY Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9. NZD Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% & CHF Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.

Today – JPY Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9. NZD Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% & CHF Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%). Bounced from 92.50 support on Friday to test key resistance and 7-day high today at 94.00. MAs aligned higher,  MACD histogram positive and signal line rising, RSI 69.44 rising & testing OB, H1 ATR 0.192, Daily ATR 1.218.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th August 2022.

Market Update – August 4 – BOE Day!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex firmed to 106.82 on Fed outlook and solid data before sliding to 106.38 at the close. Yields spiked on top of the heavy losses Tuesday (10yr 2.51%), then slipped again on strong factory orders data, with an eye on Friday’s NFP which will partly determine the magnitude of Fed tightening (10yr 2.7191%). US Stocks supported by good earnings news, and gains accelerated after solid data, shrugging off the jump in bond yields as the Fed funds futures market repriced for a 50-50 potential for a 75 bp September rate hike. European FUTS also higher. Oil dipped to $90.35 after OPEC+ disappointed and agreed to a “very small increase” in September output of 100k barrels per day – the smallest output increase in its history.  Gold holds at $1770. Today – BOE expected to hike by 50 bp but stresses data dependency of further tightening moves.

Overnight: US ISM-NMI services index rise to 56.7 from a 2-year low, US factory orders beat estimates climbed 2.0%. The rise joins big declines for the ISM, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed and Philly Fed, but gains for the Richmond Fed and Empire State, to leave an 8-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust November peaks. Surging interest rates and a flattening in real household spending as prices rise are aggravating the downtrend, though sentiment also faces support as businesses continue to restock.

* USDIndex is holding above 106 at currently 106.30.
* Equities – USA30 rose 1.29% (32.74K), USA500 rallied to 1.59% (4.15K) and USA100 surged 2.59%.
* Yields 10-year lifted 2.5 bp to 2.73% and rates are also higher in Japan and Australia. The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.863% though after another contraction in German manufacturing orders flagged recession risks for the region.
* Oil – dips to at $90.35. OPEC+ dissapointed and agreed to a “very small increase” in September output of 100k barrels per day – the smallest ouput increase in its history.
* Gold – supprted by pullback in yields at $1770.
* FX Markets – EURUSD dip to looks weak at 1.0163 and Cable is at 1.2147. USDJPY has lifted to 134.20 as recent haven flows into the yen recede. AUD and NZD regained some ground as global risk sentiment improved a little and a record Australian trade surplus underlined the natural inflows supporting the currency.

Today – The BoE expected to hike by 50 bp but with a stress on the data dependency of further tightening moves. Front loading the tightening cycle also may also make sense in light of the leadership contest, with Liz Truss, the favorite to succeed Johnson mulling a shake up of the BoE. Investors are also waiting for details on the BoE’s plans for gilt sales. Governor Bailey previously indicated that the balance sheet will shrink at a pace of GBP 50-100 bln in the first year – including redemptions.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.99%) reverted week’s losses and currently at 84.47. MAs aligned higher, MACD lines rising, RSI 76. H1 ATR 0.202, Daily ATR 0.993.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd August 2022.

Market Update – August 3 – Market “Pushed and Pulled”.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The market was pushed and pulled by geopolitical risks and uncertainties, earnings ups and downs, Fed tightening angst and recession risks.

USDIndex bounced to 106.38 currently steady at 106, Yields spiked sharply higher with selling persisting into the close (10yr 2.746% having challenged 2.51% overnight) dragged by hawkish Fedspeak and the safe arrival of Pelosi. The safe-haven Yen continued its slide. US Stocks ended in the red. Asian markets mixed as China has its warheads trained on Taiwan but on the flipside markets are trying to weigh growth risks and the Fed outlook (Hang Seng & Nikkei 0.5%, CSI 300  -0.2%). European FUTS also lower (-0.6%).  Oil at $94, Gold holds over $1750  and BTC down under $23k.

Fed’s Mester said below trend growth is not a bad outcome, and it is necessary to get inflation under control. Fed President Daly said the FOMC is likely to raise rates and keep them high for a while, in her comments in a LinkedIn interview – ‘Nowhere Near’ Finished With Inflation Fight.

Data: A surprisingly strong bounce in German exports left the German trade balance with a solid surplus.  China Services PMI readings also looked pretty strong – acceleration in activity. Swiss CPI inflation held steady at 3.4% y/y.

* USDIndex managed to climb back over 106.000 but it was weaker overnight, holding the 105.000 handle for a third straight day. YEN has given up some of its haven bid & EUR and GBP have also slumped.
* Equities – USA30 tumbled -1.23% (32.4K), USA500 off -0.67% (4.1K) and USA100 -0.16% lower (below 13K).
* Yields 10-year has already corrected -3.5 bp at 2.71% today and the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.8 bp at 0.79%.
* Oil – steady at $94.00 from $96.30 ahead of the OPEC+. It is likely to keep output unchanged in September, or raise it slightly.
* Gold – rose in the morning to $1768 after a sharp decline yesterday.
* Bitcoin directionless, at 22.98K.
* FX Markets – EURUSD dip to 1.0155 zone, USDJPY is at 133.18, as haven flows into the Yen have receded. Cable turns below 1.2200 again.

Today – OPEC+ meeting, EU Retail Sales and US ISM Services. Earnings: CVS Health, Booking Holdings, Moderna, Regeneron etc.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR (-0.70%) posted an evening start pattern this morning at 16.70. MAs flattened, MACD lines held negative , RSI 53, OS & falling,  H4 ATR 0.12128, Daily ATR 0.26199.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd August 2022.

Market Update – August 2 – Pelosi Taiwan Visit Saps Sentiment.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex sinks again to 105.00, dragged lower by falling Yields (10yr -2.88% to 2.54%). US Stocks lower following record July. HSBC +6.5% Boeing +5.96% Pearson +12.66% BBBY +14.77%. Asian markets pressured lower by Pelosi’s proposed visit to Taiwan and China promising “countermeasures” including “military actions”. (Hang Seng -2.68%, Nikkei -1.44%). European FUTS also lower. (-0.6%).  Oil tanks under $93, Gold spiked to  $1780  and BTC down under $23k.

RBA raised rates 50bp, as expected, (3rd consecutive month & fastest rate hike cycle since 1994) – BUT cooled forward guidance – will raise rates in months ahead, but “not on a pre-set path” #AUDUSD falls from 0.7030, to 0.6950, #AUDJPY -1.66%.

Biden announces US have killed head of Al-Qaeda, Zawahiri in Kabul drone strike.

* USDIndex weakens further to test under 105.00 now. YEN & CHF outperform again in Asian session.
* Equities – USA500 closed lower -11.66pts (-0.28%) (4118), US500FUTS at 4100 now.  4175 remains next key resistance
* Yields 10-year yield dived into close 2.60%, down again to 2.54% now.
* Oil – tanked to $93.00 from $101.80 highs on Friday.
* Gold – spiked to $1780 before cooling to $1773 now. Support at $1770 & $1766.
* Bitcoin also weaker trades at $22.8K now, from as high as $24.4K.
* FX Markets – EURUSD rallied to test 1.0300 zone, USDJPY dived under 131.00 to 130.40 lows. Cable holds over 1.2200 and tests key 1.2260 resistance area.

Today – AUD Building Approvals better than expected (-0.7% vs. -5.3%), Commodity prices lower (14.1% vs. 24.3%) UK House inflation a tick lower at 0.1% m/m.

Today – Canadian Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Unemployment, US JOLTS Report, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Evans & Mester. Earnings BP (out – EPS exceed by +26%, profits a monster £6.95bn), CAT, UBER, AirBnB, AMD, PayPal, Starbucks, Gilead, Marriott.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.66%). Dovish RBA and Taiwan tensions hit the key most risk sensitive pair. Collapses from 92.500 to 90.75 lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 22.5, OS & falling,  H1 ATR 0.294, Daily ATR 1.198.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.