Topic: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. - page 31. (Read 32319 times)

Date : 23rd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd May 2019.



FX News Today

* Comments from Fed’s Bullard that a rate cut could become an “attractive option” if inflation continues to disappoint added support to bond markets ahead of the release of the Fed minutes from the May meeting.

* Ahead of today’s Fed minutes, this helped to lift sentiment and underpin stock market sentiment, which struggled for direction amid conflicting trade headlines.

* Reports that the US administration is considering blacklisting up to 5 Chinese surveillance firms, including Hikvision added fresh concerns about a deepening of trade frictions and put pressure on tech stocks.

* The GER30 futures are heading south in tandem with US futures after a mixed session in Asia, where mainland China bourses underperformed.

* The FTSE 100 future is getting some support from a weaker pound, which is shedding the gains seen in the wake of May’s latest Brexit deal yesterday

* At the same time, China’s ambassador to the US said Beijing is ready to resume talks and ASX and Nifty 50 slightly higher.

* The WTI future meanwhile fell back to USD 62.58 per barrel.


Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD spiked up briefly to 1.1188, just above its 20-day MA, though has now eased back under 1.1150. The Euro remains in sell the rally mode, given the Dollar’s yields advantage, and relatively better performing economy. EURUSD has posted 6-straight sessions of lower daily lows, a bearish signal, and has sights set on the May 3 bottom of 1.1135, then 2019 lows of 1.1110 seen in late April.

* XAUUSD: Renewed dollar strength, along with the return of risk-taking conditions has dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. The US easing of restrictions on Huawei has helped equity sentiment, to the detriment of gold prices. Next support comes at $1,270 in the near term, then $1,267.30, , the May 2 low, then $1,258.38, the 200-day MA.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. FOMC left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd May 2019.



FX News Today

* Comments from Fed’s Bullard that a rate cut could become an “attractive option” if inflation continues to disappoint added support to bond markets ahead of the release of the Fed minutes from the May meeting.

* Ahead of today’s Fed minutes, this helped to lift sentiment and underpin stock market sentiment, which struggled for direction amid conflicting trade headlines.

* Reports that the US administration is considering blacklisting up to 5 Chinese surveillance firms, including Hikvision added fresh concerns about a deepening of trade frictions and put pressure on tech stocks.

* The GER30 futures are heading south in tandem with US futures after a mixed session in Asia, where mainland China bourses underperformed.

* The FTSE 100 future is getting some support from a weaker pound, which is shedding the gains seen in the wake of May’s latest Brexit deal yesterday

* At the same time, China’s ambassador to the US said Beijing is ready to resume talks and ASX and Nifty 50 slightly higher.

* The WTI future meanwhile fell back to USD 62.58 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD spiked up briefly to 1.1188, just above its 20-day MA, though has now eased back under 1.1150. The Euro remains in sell the rally mode, given the Dollar’s yields advantage, and relatively better performing economy. EURUSD has posted 6-straight sessions of lower daily lows, a bearish signal, and has sights set on the May 3 bottom of 1.1135, then 2019 lows of 1.1110 seen in late April.

* XAUUSD: Renewed dollar strength, along with the return of risk-taking conditions has dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. The US easing of restrictions on Huawei has helped equity sentiment, to the detriment of gold prices. Next support comes at $1,270 in the near term, then $1,267.30, , the May 2 low, then $1,258.38, the 200-day MA.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. FOMC left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th May 2019.



* Just as optimism on US growth was returning, while worries over a global slowing were easing, the spectre of a trade war is back on the table to heighten uncertainties once again. Trade will remain a focal point along with the European Parliament elections. Thursday is the most data-heavy day with European PMI releases and the the German IFO survey.

Tuesday – 21 May 2019

* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy. In the past policy review earlier this month, RBA highlighted downside risks to the economy, but disappointed markets by leaving the cash rate on hold ahead of the federal elections.

* Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.

* Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Retail Sales are expected to have slipped to 0.0% for the first Quarter of 2019, from around 1.7% q/q.

Wednesday – 22 May 2019

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. FOMC left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.

Thursday – 23 May 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German Preliminary Q1 results are expected to remain unchanged, at an annualised rate of 0.6%, and at 0.4% compared to 1.1% last quarter.

* Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Preliminary Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are expected to increase in May, to 48.2 and 51.8 respectively while the Services PMI is forecast at 53.

* German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to hold steady at 99.2, after it unexpectedly declined to 99.2 in the April reading from 99.7 in March.

* European Parliamentary Elections – DAY 1

Friday – 24 May 2019

* Retail Sales and Core (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Following a correction in March, Retail Sales are expected to slip this month by -0.4% m/m from 1.1% m/m.
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are pegged at -1.8% in April, after a 2.7% figure in March. Transportation orders should be -7.2%. Boeing orders should fall to the lean 28 area from an already-low 44 in March, with a likely hit via problems with the Boeing 737 Max that may have prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments, while vehicle assemblies are seen steady from a 10.8 mln pace in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasuries sold off as risk appetite soured. Wall Street posted broadbased and solid intraday gains of over 1% Thursday.

* There was good news on the data front, as well as stellar earnings news from Walmart to add to the bullish tone in equities.

* Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said the ultra-low rates may be maintained for a further period of well over a year. However, Kuroda warned against the idea of propping up the economy through unlimited money printing saying that “when a central bank monetises debt unlimitedly, it will most certainly trigger hyper-inflation and cause huge demand to the economy”.

* There were comments in China state media saying China may have no interest in continuing trade talks with the US for now.

* The Yuan fell past the psychologically important 6.9 per dollar level, something that previously had been speculated to eventually lead to the selling of Chinese Treasury holdings to prop up the currency.

* The WTI future is trading at $62.98 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Mideast continue to provide support, with the latest rally coming as Saudi Arabia blamed Iran and its proxies for attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure this week.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD fell to 8-session lows of 1.1172 at mid-morning, slipping from opening highs near 1.1210. The early round of Dollar friendly US data saw the pairing start its decent, with selling pick up some pace on the break under the 20-day MA of 1.1197. The May 7 low of 1.1167 Support was reached , however the asset manage to hold above it so far today. A break there could open the door for a test of the May 3 low of 1.1135.


* GBPUSD’s low is 1.2787 in what is now the 5th consecutive daily decline and the eighth down day out of the last nine trading days. Resistance comes in at 1.2875-78. Next Support holds at 1.2700.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for April is expected to slow down slightly, at 0.7% from 1% last month. However, the overall picture remains largely unchanged, with headline inflation remaining modest, but underlying inflation starting to firm. No reason then for the ECB to add additional stimulus measures to an already very accommodative policy stance, and “low for longer” remains the message not just from the ECB.

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary May Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.7, up from the final April sentiment at 97.2.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasury yields dipped -1.4 bp overnight, JGB rates are down -0.5 bp as bond markets continue to rally amid the escalating US-Sino trade spat that saw Trump targeting Chinese telecom companies.

* Reports that the US President will hold off on auto tariffs for now helped European bourses to stage a late rally Wednesday.

* The US President signed an order that is expected to restrict the likes of Huawei and ZTE Corp from selling their equipment to the US. Huawei was also put on a blacklist that could forbid it from doing business with American companies and require US companies to obtain a special licence to sell products to the company, which if enforced strictly could halt even everyday operations at the Chinese company.

* The US and European stock futures are under pressure ahead of the official open.

* US-Sino trade tensions aside Brexit developments and Italian budget jitters remain in focus amid a pretty quiet local calendar that focuses on Eurozone trade numbers as well as the final reading of Italian HICP inflation.

* The unexpected pick up in Australian unemployment fuelled speculation of a rate cut from the RBA.

* The front end WTI future is trading at $62.40 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD found Resistance at 1.1217 level for 2 consecutive days. The pair has mostly been stuck between its 20-day moving average at 1.1200 and its 50-day moving average at 1.1245 since the start of the week. A close above or below these levels may help determine direction for the remainder of the week.
* GBPUSD has extended losses which s now in its 9th consecutive down day, after it broke yesterday April’s lows. Next support for the asset is coming at January’s low  Resistance at 1.2772.

Main Macro Events Today

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Both Building Permits and Housing Starts should jump in April, to a 1.215 mln pace and to 1.298 mln respectively, after a 0.3% and 0.2% decline seen in March. Overall, a stronger trajectory is expected for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets continued to recover during the Asian session, after a positive close on Wall Street Tuesday. Topix and Nikkei gained 0.41% and 0.45% respectively.

* Volumes were thin indicating that there is not much conviction in the recovery as investors evaluate trade developments.

* Chinese data releases from Industrial output to Retail Sales data and investment all slowed last month and together with the fallout from tariff hikes that saw markets buying into hopes of further stimulus measures in China.

* President Trump overnight called on the Fed to “match” what he said China would do to offset the economic impact of the US tariffs

* US stock futures are also moving higher.

* The AUD was pressured by the weak China data.

* The USOIL struggled with source stories saying the API will report a 8.63 million Dollar increase in US stockpiles and is trading at USD 61.38 per barrel.

* German GDP growth expanded 0.4% q/q in Q1, in line with expectations and coming back from stagnation in the last quarter of 2018. The construction and machinery investment as well as private consumption were the main drivers of growth.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD found Support into the 1.1200 level. The pair has mostly been stuck between its 20-day moving average at 1.1200 and its 50-day moving average at 1.1245 since the start of the week. A close above or below these levels may help determine direction for the remainder of the week.

* USDJPY has recovered slightly from earlier lows of 109.45, making its way to 109.67 highs so far. The rally on Wall Street, which has so far wiped out about a third of Monday’s sharp losses has provided some Support, as have steadier Treasury yields which were hammered lower yesterday as well. The uncertainty of the outcome of the US-China trade war however, will likely keep USDJPY upside limited for now.

* GBPUSD is back on a weakening path. A generally firmer dollar has seen Cable lead the way in the latest phase, with the pair printing fresh 2-week lows under 1.2910. This extends the quite-steep decline from the early May peak at 1.3176, which is the loftiest point reached over the last six weeks. As the risk of a disorderly no-deal Brexit remains a possibility, if not a probability and as the pair is a sharp decline for 8th day is a row, bearish outlook looks to hold strongly. Intraday, Cable has Resistance at 1.2928-1.1235 and Support at 1.2860 on the break of 1.2900 level.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – Eurozone prelim. Q1 GDP growth expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – We expect readings of 0.2% for April retail sales and 0.7% for ex-auto sales, following a 1.6% increase for the March headline and a 1.2% increase ex-autos. Unit vehicle sales slowed in April, and gasoline prices should continue to boost retail activity given an estimated 5.5% increase in the CPI for gasoline.


* Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI is expected to slip to 0.3% from the 0.7% reading the past 2 months.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th May 2019.



FX News Today

* The stock sell off that was triggered by new US tariffs and China’s retaliation measures announced yesterday eased somewhat during the Asian session after some conciliatory comments from US President Trump and likely also thanks to suspected buying of state backed players in China.

* The Yen declined after Trump said he will meet China’s Xi Jinping at next months G20 summit.

* Topix and Nikkei are still down -0.70% and -0.81%.

* The US Trade Representative’s office released a list of about USD 300 bln worth of Chinese goods that Trump also threatened to hit with a 25% tariff.

* European futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures ahead of the opening.

* The WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 61.15 per barrel, up from an earlier low of USD 60.73.

* German inflation lifted above 2% limit in April,largely thanks to higher energy prices, as well as the Easter effect.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD eased from near 2-week highs of 1.1263, touching 1.1218 lows before steadying. EURUSD is back under its 50-day moving average of 1.1249. Continued uncertainty on the trade front, should keep risk-appetite contained, which could see the Dollar remain firm on a flight to safety trade.

* USDJPY has dropped to 3-plus month lows of 109.09, falling 50 points. Safe-haven Yen buying ratcheted up quickly on the report, while severe risk-off conditions, seeing US equity futures plummet, and Treasury yields slide, has weighed heavily on the pairing. The January 31 low of 108.50 is the next support level.

* USOIL has given back its earlier 2% gains, trading down at $61.20. Overnight gains came following attacks on two Saudi tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, though since then, the ramped up US/China trade war has spooked oil bulls. A slowing of the two-largest economies will likely result in crude demand destruction going forward. Friday’s $60.92 lows is next Support and $60.60 (last night’s low).

Main Macro Events Today

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for March is expected to hold at 3.4%. The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.9%.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for May is expected to decline to 1.0 compared to 4.5 last month.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th May 2019.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.



Markets could keep being restive as the trade war escalates, with concerns rising regarding a response from China. Meanwhile, the main focus should turn to the US as the week ahead includes a heavy slate of economic reports that will include important updates on consumption, inventories, factory output, sentiment, and the housing sector.

* Tuesday – 14 May 2019

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The preliminary German HICP inflation for April was higher than initially expected, at 2.1% y/y. However the final reading is expected to fall back to 1.7% y/y.

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for March is expected to hold at 3.4%. The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.9%.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for May is expected to decline to 1.0 compared to 4.5 last month.

* Wednesday – 15 May 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German Preliminary Q1 results are expected to come in stronger than expected at 0.3%, after confirmed at 0.0% q/q for Q4 2018. Eurozone prelim. Q1 GDP growth expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – We expect readings of 0.2% for April retail sales and 0.7% for ex-auto sales, following a 1.6% increase for the March headline and a 1.2% increase ex-autos. Unit vehicle sales slowed in April, and gasoline prices should continue to boost retail activity given an estimated 5.5% increase in the CPI for gasoline.

* Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI is expected to slip to 0.3% from the 0.7% reading the past 2 months.

* Thursday – 16 May 2019

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australian labour market data is expected to deteriorate, as the unemployment rate expected to increase to 5.1% in April from 5.0% last month, while employment is anticipated at 14K from 25.7K in March.

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Both Building Permits and Housing Starts should jump in April, to a 1.215 mln pace and to 1.298 mln respectively, after a 0.3% and 0.2% decline seen in March. Overall, a stronger trajectory is expected for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits.

* Friday – 17 May 2019

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for April is expected to slow down slightly, at 0.7% from 1% last month. However, the overall picture remains largely unchanged, with headline inflation remaining modest, but underlying inflation starting to firm. No reason then for the ECB to add additional stimulus measures to an already very accommodative policy stance, and “low for longer” remains the message not just from the ECB.

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary May Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.7, up from the final April sentiment at 97.2.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Trading remained nervous ahead of the Friday deadline on tariff hikes.

* While comments from US President Trump that an agreement is still possible initially saw stock markets rallying in Asia, caution has since made a comeback as investors react to headlines.

* Japanese markets erased earlier gains and fell back into negative territory before stabilizing, and Topix and Nikkei are down -0.18% and 0.47% respectively as of 05:39GMT.

* The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 61.92 per barrel.

* German exports rebound in March – German trade data at the start of the session is showing another solid surplus in March and Q1, amid lingering fears that the focus of the US administration will once again turn to stagnant US-EU trade talks.

* European stock futures are moving higher, while US futures recovered most of their overnight losses and are little changed on the day, as it seems markets are set to buy into hopes that a deal will be reached eventually.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY has been pushed down to 109.51. Another severe session of risk-off has weighed, with both Wall Street and Treasury yields getting hammered, keeping the pressure on the pairing. The pair managed to find some ground ahead of the EU session, and hence it is currently moving above PP level. However, as the overall outlook remains bearish, the February 4 low of 109.43 remains the next downside Support level, with a break there set to test the 109.00 level.

* USDCAD rallied to 2-week highs of 1.3505, finding support from modest Oil price losses, and a generally firmer USD. Light buy-stops were noted on the break of 1.3500, though follow through was limited. USDCAD is rangebound between 1.3505 and 1.3430.  April highs of 1.3516-1.3521 will need to be eclipsed to shift sentiment to a more bullish stance, otherwise overall consolidation holds.

* USOIL has remained rangebound, sticking inside of Monday’s trading band, between $60.00 and $62.92. Concerns over the US/China trade war have kept a lid on prices this week, due to the prospects for demand destruction. On the supply side, Libya exports (near 1.0 mln bpd) are at risk due to civil war in the country threatening further supply disruption on top of the shutdown in production from Iran and Venezuela due to sanctions, and the ongoing OPEC+ production cuts. As a result, risk would appear to be to the upside for oil prices in the coming sessions, regardless of trade worries.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The economy’s most important figure, preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% q/q.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI is estimated to rise 0.4% in April, after a similar reading in March. The overall CPI is expected to be up 2.1% y/y, from 1.9% in March. US Core CPI is estimated to rise 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% increase in March.

* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.8% in April, however the employment change is forecast to increase to 1K, after the 7.2k loss in March.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th May 2019.



FX News Today

* US President Trump confirmed that tariffs on a large chunk of China imports will rise to 25% on Friday from currently 10%, saying that China “broke the deal” and would pay.

* Fears that the hard line stance on China will also put the spotlight on imports from other countries put pressure on automakers in Japan and will also keep European stock markets in suspense.

* European stock futures are heading south in tandem with US futures, after a broad sell off in Asia.

* Ongoing Brexit jitters are adding to the risk-off backdrop in Europe, with no breakthrough in cross-party talks on a Brexit deal in sight and RICS house price data overnight showing that the housing market remains pressured.

* The WTI future is trading at USD 61.67 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD is moving higher into the EU session. It is currently retesting the 1.1200 area. The Euro was supported by stronger German industrial production released overnight, though the Dollar has since perked up slightly on safe-haven flows, as the US and China continue to play chicken with trade negotiations. EUR-USD resistance comes at 1.1217, which represents the 20-day moving average, with support at Tuesday’s 1.1167 low.

* EURCHF has settled into a choppy consolidation centred on 1.1400 after a 4-week rally, bellow the 6-month peak at 1.1476 in late April. The pronounced Swiss Franc underperformance that was seen during most of April was accompanied by narratives talking about the market being in the process of giving up on the Franc’s role as a safe haven currency, which has been afflicted by the SNB’s -0.75% deposit rate, and which finally seemed to have elicited down-weighting of Franc by reserve and portfolio overlay managers. On the year-to-date, the Swissie remains down by over 3.5% against the Dollar and by nearly 1.5% versus the Euro. Overall, Swiss policymakers’ efforts to both weaken the Franc and dethrone the currency from its safe-haven status look to be working.

Main Macro Events Today

* Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – Although less important than in other economies, the US trade balance still provides a useful overview of the overall economy and the Dollar supply in the world, especially as reducing it has been one of Trump’s main targets. Still, consensus forecasts suggest that the shortfall should widen slightly to -$49.9 bln from -$49.4 bln in February. A 0.7% rise for exports to $211.2 bln is expected and a 0.8% increase for imports to $261.1 bln.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th May 2019.



FX News Today

* The RBNZ became the first central bank in the developed world to begin loosening policy this cycle. NZDUSD drifted to 6-month low at 0.6525.

* German industrial production unexpectedly rose 0.5% m/m in March.

* Given the correction in orders in Q1 and manufacturing PMI readings that show the manufacturing sector in recession, not just in Germany, the better than expected German production number for March doesn’t change the overall picture of weakness in a sector that clearly is pressured by the combination of geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit jitters, with no sign of improvement, despite today’s upside surprise in the headline reading.

* The weaker than expected trade data out of China showed exports contracting and the trade surplus falling sharply added to ongoing concerns about developments in world trad.

* Brexit fatigue has driven the pound lower vs most other currencies today

* The front end WTI future is trading at USD 61.78 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD dropped to lows under 1.1170 after opening near 1.1200. The downward move came partly on safe-haven flows into the Dollar. Resistance comes at 1.1222, the 20-day MA, with support seen at 1.1135, Friday’s low.

* USDJPY has fallen to 110.16 lows, just below Monday’s 1-month base of 110.29. The pairing has been weighed down by another risk-off session, related to the escalating US/China trade war. Wall Street is sharply lower, while Treasury yields are down again today as well. Further equity losses will likely see the Dollar head below yesterday’s low, which them brings the March 25 bottom of 109.70 into focus.

Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Housing Starts – April housing starts are expected to improve to 195.0k from 192.5k in March.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock market still struggled during the Asian session though and European stock futures are down on the day, as are US futures, although the latter managed to pare some of their overnight losses.

* RBA left cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for now, as federal election looms. The ASX was knocked off highs.

* Trump’s top trade negotiator meanwhile confirmed that Washington plans to go ahead with tariff hikes on Chinese goods on Friday.

* China vice-premier Liu Hewill visit Washington on May 9-10.

* Indices in China and Hong Kong, which started stronger started to pare gains leaving the Hang Seng down -0.11%, the CSI 300 up 0.15% as of 5:32GMT, versus losses of -1.29% and -1.61% in Topix and Nikkei. .

* WTI future managed to climb to USD 62.29.

* German manufacturing orders rebounded 0.6% m/m, -4.0% m/m contraction in the previous month, and showed a sharp decline in orders inflow in the first quarter of the year, highlighting the impact of geopolitical trade tensions on the manufacturing sector in particular.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USA500 rebounded from 2882 lows, up to 2927 area. As the asset sustains gains above the 20-day MA, with momentum indicators positively configured, the next Resistance area comes at 2848-2960. Support is set athe PP of the day and also the low of the day at 2909.78. RSI is at 57 and sloping higher, in contrast with MACD which suggest weakness of the positive momentum.

* USDJPY recovered from the 1-month low of 110.28 s topping at 110.95 in late NY morning trade. Currently is consolidating around PP level at 110.65. As yesterday’s candles closed outside Bollinger Bands area pointing an oversold asset, while 50- and 200-day MAs have been flattened implying to a near-term ranging market, the asset is expected to enter a consolidation mode. Resistance is now at Friday’s 111.07 low, though the downturn in US Treasury yields may limit gains going forward.

Main Macro Events Today

* Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Expectations suggest that the Index will decline to 51.1 compared to 54.3 last month, although still remain above 50.

* BoJ Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – BoJ Minutes are expected to shed more light as to how Japanese policymakers are assessing the current global slowdown and whether they plan any further policy actions.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Japan remains closed for holidays.

* Elsewhere, China’s April services PMI is due, seen at 54.5 from 54.4.

* In the Asia region risk aversion spiked after US President Trump issued threats of new tariffs on imports from China in a bid to up the pressure in trade negotiations.

* Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to return to Washington for trade talks on Wednesday, but after Trump’s threat China is now considering cancelling this week’s round of talks.

* North Korea launched missiles over the weekend, which included the first ballistic missile launch since 2017; this saw investors heading for safety.

* Treasury futures are allying, while yields across Asia are plummeting sharply and stocks selling off.

* Australia’s 10-year bond yield fell nearly 5 bp amid the general flight for safety and as markets position for a rate cut ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision.

* US futures are posting losses in the region of 1.8-1.9%.

* The front end WTI future is trading at USD 60.45 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD retested 1.1200 highs, up from the 1.1135 lows seen immediately after the US jobs report. The Dollar overall took a hit on Friday and again today. Though the pair closed the week with modest gains (bullish weekly candle), it remains well off of Wednesday’s high of 1.1265 and within the lower BB area, while intraday indicators have been flattened suggesting intraday consolidation. The Resistance comes in at 1.1228, the 20-day MA and Support at 1.1166. As the US economy is in a solid growth with low inflation sweet spot, the EURUSD is seen following the 1-year downchannel forming lower highs and lower lows.

* AUDUSD fell below the round 0.7000 level below to recover yesterday. As Bollinger Bands extend southwards and momentum indicators are sloping towards oversold barrier, another negative session along with the continuation of lower highs, implies a move towards 0.6800-0.6900 area.

Main Macro Events Today

* Markit Composite PMI and Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 08:00-09:00) – The EU Composite PMI is expected to remain at the three-month low of 51.3 in April, while Retail Sales are forecast to slip to 0.1% m/m in March, with the annual rate decelerating to 2.3% y/y from 2.8% y/y.

* Fed speeches – Fed reports its Senior Loan Officer Survey. Fed President Harker discusses the economic outlook.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd May 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets mostly managed slight gains in quiet trade across Asia as Japan and mainland China remained closed for holidays and with investors positioning for the US jobs report.

* BoE yesterday warned that in the central scenario of a smooth Brexit transition rates will have to go up more and faster than markets currently expect.

* Overnight big drop in Australian Building approvals as the market corrected from a big rise in February.

* Earnings also remained in focus with better than expected profits reported by HSBC helping to underpin shares in Hong Kong while a profit warning from Macquarie weighed on the ASX.

* US stock futures are also moving higher after closing broadly lower on Thursday, following alongside Treasury yields as the market further digested yesterday’s signal from the Fed that a rate cut is not on the menu this year.

* US-Sino trade talks also remain in focus and will add to volatility until a deal is finally on the table.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD touched a low of 1.1165 into the London open. The pair dropped nearly 100 points from the highs, while the close yesterday under the 1.1200 mark suggests an increasing bearish bias for the Euro. Resistance now sits at 1.1200, or further up to 1.1220 (20 DMA), with Support at 1.1145, the April 29 low.

* USOIL failed to recover yesterday. It remains down nearly 4%, bottoming so far at $61.03. Price weakness has come following the EIA reporting US inventories at near 2-year highs on Wednesday. Supplies are expected to increase further in the next month, as refinery maintenance curbs crude demand. Hence, the $60.50 level is now a key Support, representing both the 50- and 200-day MAs.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –The Euro Area CPI is expected to come out at 1.6% y/y, above March’s outcome.

* NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – April nonfarm payrolls are expected to have stood by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% for a y/y gain of 3.3%, up from 3.2% in March.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd May 2019.



FX News Today

* Asian stock markets traded mixed in quiet trade, with China and Japan still on holiday.

* The Fed held rates steady, as expected but it dealt a blow to hopes of an “insurance” rate cut, while stressing patience and data dependence for the policy outlook.

* Fed chair Powell indicated that low inflation might be transitory, and that global growth concerns had eased.

* The USA30 was down -0.61% at the end, the USA500 lost -0.75%.

* The ASX also dipped -0.74% after the nation’s biggest lender cut its dividend, but benchmarks in South Korea and Hong Kong ticked higher after reports from CNBC saying the US and China could announce a trade deal as soon as next Friday.

* Oil prices fell to USD 63.39 overnight with US stockpiles weighing.

* Gold futures rallied slightly after the FOMC announcement, as the USD fell, and yields headed lower, topping at $1,289.05 from $1,285.00. The contract later fell under $1,275.00, a one-week low.

* Sterling has outperformed for a 2nd day, floated by optimism on the Brexit front.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* GBPUSD has Support at 1.3010, and Resistance at 1.3103, the latter levels encompassing the current situation of the 50-day moving average.

* XAUUSD is trading below 1,272.00. after Fed chair Powell indicated that low inflation might be transitory, and that global growth concerns had eased. This saw the USD and Treasury yields head higher, both weighing on gold prices. Given the strong ADP number,  the USD expected to remain underpinned into tomorrow’s release of the April US payrolls report.

* EURUSD  fell from a high of 1.1264 to a post-Powell low of 1.1187 before settling to a narrow range around 1.1200.  Support holds at 1.1160-1.1185 and REsistastance is set at 1.1210-1.1215.

Main Macro Events Today

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day. If the transition runs smoothly we might see another 25 bp hike in May 2019. The BoE has cautioned that the outlook will “depend significantly on the nature of EU withdrawal,” and noted that “uncertainty has intensified.” Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.

* US Q1 Nonfarm Productivity (USD, GMT 12:30)  – Q1 productivity should post a 1.2% rate of growth, down from 1.9%, with unit labor costs rising 2.3% from 2.0%.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th April 2019.



FX News Today

* China misses manufacturing PMIs moving Asian stock markets lower, Japan remains closed all week.  The disappointing manufacturing PMI readings out of China, which signalled a deceleration in the pace of expansion in both private and official readings. The official reading fell back to just 50.1 from 50.4.

* French Q1 GDP growth held steady at 0.3% q/q, in line with consensus expectations and bringing the annual rate to 1.1% y/y from 1.0% y/y in the previous quarter.

* YEN: has been underpinned by continued safe haven demand and growth concerns in Asia compounded by the weak Chinese data. USDJPY moved down to test 111.50 overnight.

* USOil remains under $63.50 and weighed by Fridays fall, GOLD pivots around $1280 but is capped at 1285

* Earnings reports from Alphabet disappointed. Overnight, US markets closed up but Futures are down again this morning.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY fell again to test 111.50 and the S1 daily support at 111.48. USDJPY has tried, and failed to hold the 112 mark for several weeks now, and may be entering a phase of shaking out some long positions, before being able to make fresh gains. Overall, risk sentiment will be a determining factor going forward, though with the BoJ on hold, and a chance for further easing ahead, USDJPY can be expected to eventually head higher. 112.00 remains key resistance with the 200-day sma at 111.15.

* EURUSD made its way to four-session highs of 1.1184 after the London close, up from early lows of 1.1146. The core PCE price data released earlier was cooler than expected, which helped the Euro post modest gains. While the pairing is well up on Friday’s trend low, further gains will likely be tentative into Today’s preliminary CPI figures from the major EU countries and trades at 111.80, currently. Given ongoing softness in EU data, and an ECB likely to be lower for longer, EURUSD remains pressured. The next downside level remains at the 1.1100 zone.

Main Macro Events Today

* CAD Gross Domestic Product  (CAD – 12:30) – The economy’s most important figure, m/m GDP, is expected to rise 0.3%

* German CPI & EUR Flash GDP (EUR – 10:00)  – German regional Inflation and Eurozone GDP are both  expected to creep up a tick to 0.5% and 0.3% from 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, nothing in the numbers is expected to alert the ECB’s position on a sluggish EZ area.

* Consumer Board Consumer Confidence (USD-15:00) – Expectations are for a bounce to 126.2 in April from 124.1 in March.
Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th April 2019.



* We have a huge week ahead for markets, with two central banks policy meetings being in the spotlight, the BoE and the FOMC. Data-wise, we have some of the heaviest data, with Eurozone’s inflation numbers and GDP for the 1st Quarter of 2019, while the US Jobs report on Friday stands out as the event of the coming week.

Monday – 29 April 2019

* Personal Consumption Expenditures (USD, GMT 12:30) – A low reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is expected to be negative for the USD. PCE inflation is expected to stand at 0.2% reading for February with a 0.1% increase for the core, which matches the headline February CPI and core figures. The March reading is expected at 0.4% PCE chain price and a 0.1% in the core index, which also matches the March CPI reading.

Tuesday – 30 April 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Euro Area Preliminary GDP for the 1st Quarter is expected to have increased by 0.3% q/q, compared to 0.2% in the previous quarter, while it should remain flat at 1.1% y/y.

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.4% y/y in March. In April however, it is expected to rise to 1.6% y/y.

* Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – February GDP is expected to slow to 0.1%, compared to 0.3% last month, perhaps paving the way for an extended pause in rate hikes from the BoC lasting through mid-year.

* CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have declined from 126.0 in April to 124.1 in March.

* Employment data (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Employment expected to keep growing in Q1, with  the employment change rising to 0.3%q/q from 0.1%q/q.

Wednesday – 01 May 2019

* ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The April ADP Employment report should reveal a 175k gain for the month, after a 129k March gain.

* ISM Manufacturing PMI  (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up to 55.0 in April from 55.3 in March.

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC is expected to leave the funds rates steady and to continue tapering the balance sheet runoff and will taper it in May, and end it in September. However, the US economy is expected to continue strengthen, something that will eventually call for another rate hike later in the year.

Thursday – 02 May 2019

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day. If the transition runs smoothly we might see another 25 bp hike in May 2019. The BoE has cautioned that the outlook will “depend significantly on the nature of EU withdrawal,” and noted that “uncertainty has intensified.” Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.

Friday – 03 May 2019

* Building Approvals (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian housing sector has been facing issues in the past months, with building approvals surprisingly jump in February at fastest rate in over 5 years, at 19.1% . Consensus forecasts for March however suggest that a comeback could have occurred and hence, Building Approvals are expected to fall at 1.0%

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –The Euro Area CPI is expected to come out at 1.6% y/y, above March’s outcome.

* NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30)– April nonfarm payrolls are expected to have stood by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% for a y/y gain of 3.3%, up from 3.2% in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th April 2019.



FX News Today

* Asian stock markets drifted mostly lower as Japan heads for a long holiday week, and with earnings reports and data releases weighing in sentiment.

* Japan production unexpectedly contracted, which after the correction in South Korea GDP yesterday, added to signs of weakness in the region and also highlighted the contrasting strength of the US economy, after robust durable goods orders yesterday.

* President Xi Jinping said China won’t engage in currency depreciation that harms other nations.

* YEN: has been underpinned by safe haven demand amid growth concerns in Asia and European and flagging stock markets.

* The WTI future is trading slightly under USD 65 per barrel.

* Earnings reports and US GDP numbers will provide the main focus for markets today, with the local calendar holding only the UK CBI industrial trends survey.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY fell to 2-week lows of 111.38 before rebounding again between the Pivot Point of the day and the 20-day SMa, at 111.60-111.75 area. The pairing fell from the 2019 highs seen into the Wednesday close, and ahead of what was expected to be and was, a dovish BoJ announcement. USDJPY has tried, and failed to hold the 112 mark for several weeks now, and may be entering a phase of shaking out some long positions, before being able to make fresh gains. Overall, risk sentiment will be a determining factor going forward, though with the BoJ on hold, and a chance for further easing ahead, USDJPY can be expected to eventually head higher.

* EURUSD bounced from its trend low of 1.1118 seen after the early round of US data, peaking at 1.1154. The USD generally turned lower through the morning session, appearing to be driven by a round of position squaring following earlier 2-year DXY highs. The Euro is expected to remain in sell-the-rally mode based on the fundamentals. The ECB economic bulletin signaled risks remain to the downside, underscoring the Bank will be “low for longer”. The next downside level remains at the 1.1100 level.

Main Macro Events Today

* US Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q1 GDP, is expected to rise 2.6%, following a 2.2% pace in Q4 and 3.4% growth in Q3.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2019.



FX News Today

* The BoJ left rates unchanged, but clarified its forward guidance, saying it will keep rates very low at least through spring of next year.

* Also, they will expand the eligible collateral and also consider the introduction of an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) lending facility, that would allow to temporarily lend ETFs that the Bank holds to market participants.

* Japanese stock markets outperformed going into the announcement, but mainland China indices were under pressure.

* Stock futures are moving higher in Europe and the US. The weaker than expected Ifo reading yesterday and a negative GDP print from South Korea overnight added to concerns about the outlook for world growth, which means rates will stay low for longer.

* The Swedish Riksbank is widely expected to keep monetary policy on hold today.

* The front end WTI future is trading at USD 65.91 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDCHF is consolidating since last night within 1.01970-1.02190 range. However, the pair still holds above 1.0200, suggesting the continuation of the uptrend, as the pair remains well above the medium term Support at 1.0123 level (6 month Resistance converted to Support). Intraday, however, and as momentum indicators have been flattened, consolidation mode could possibly hold within the day. A cross below 1.0200 could retest yesterday’s lows.

* AUDUSD within the strong 3-year Support, 0.7000-0.7020. It could react as a retracement level for the asset. However, the 3 black crows in the daily chart suggest that negative bias is increasing for AUDUSD.

Main Macro Events Today

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – March durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.2%, following a 1.6% February decline. Shipments are expected to fall 1.5% in March, after a 0.2% reading in February.

* NZ Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The trade report is expected to show an improvement in the surplus to NZ$300 mln in March from NZ$12 mln in February.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in April. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.6% m/m in March, compared to -1.1% m/m in February, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 1.2% y/y, compared to 0.6% in March.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2019.



FX News Today

* Australia’s bond as well as stock markets rallied after inflation came in lower than anticipated at 0.0% q/q, down from 0.5% in the previous period and versus median expectations of 0.1%.

* Markets are convinced that the inflation miss will make a rate cut all but inevitable and 10-year yields plunged 10.5 bp, while the ASX jumped as much as 1.1% to a more than 11 year high, after already outperforming yesterday.

* Elsewhere in Asia markets were under pressure, however, despite the strong close on Wall Street, where sentiment was boosted by upbeat earnings reports.

* The USA500 and USA100 closed at record highs Tuesday

* Twitter stock surged more than 15% on earnings beat, while the Coca-Cola share price is up 2% as Q1 earnings revenue was $8.02 billion, topping projections of $7.88 billion. The concerns that China may slow the pace of policy easing and stimulus measures continue to weigh on sentiment.

* WTI oil softer today after surge to 6-mth high at $66.60 yesterday.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USOIL softer at 66.00 hurdle after topping at a new nearly six-month high of $66.60. Overall,  outlook holds to the upside as the asset is sloping within an uptrend, with small corrections to the downside.

* USDJPY has continued to oscillate in a narrow range in the 111.75-112.00 area.  The focus this week will be on fresh signs that corroborate the return-to-growth picture in major global economies. A continuation of this theme would be supportive of currencies that performer with higher beta characteristics, such as the Dollar bloc units, while currencies of the low-yielding safe haven type, such as the Yen, would be apt to underperform. USDJPY has Support at 111.54-111.60, levels which encompass the prevailing position of the 200-day moving average.

* AUDUSD dove to 0.7026, just a breath above 3-year Support. It was driven by Aussie-specific losses following sub forecast CPI data out of Australia, which catalysed calls for the RBA to cut interest rates at its next policy review in May. A break of 0.7000 could open the way towards a December slip.

Main Macro Events Today

* IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 99.9 compared to 99.6 last month.

* Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 14:00) – At the BoC meeting, consensus expectations are that there should be no interest rate change. A sharper and more broadly based slowdown in the domestic economy, alongside a slowing in the global economy that has been more pronounced and widespread than anticipated saw the Bank state “the outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range.”

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.