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Topic: How bad can it get? - page 2. (Read 1754 times)

full member
Activity: 728
Merit: 115
July 13, 2022, 11:09:32 AM
After we enter recession in full, somewhere after this winter we are probably hitting 4-7K again.
Asic miners will be cheaper then ever and GPU mining long gone this time, if that will be a thing again remain to see, I do not expect to see so big price jump to use GPU on any coins currently on the market.

 

GPU mining will not go anywhere, there are always new coins to shift your hashrate into with the hardware but profitability will vary with time. Might now be as profitable as it was this cycle again ever again though.

New hardware is always be more efficient and markets get saturated with new entrants and it will squeeze out all those who can't afford it. Driving costs up & profitability down.
It will reach equilibrium with time but it wall also mean only hobbyists are into it or full scale industrialists.

There will not be room for small ventures much longer unless you have other incomes to subsidize your mining costs with electricity etc from elsewhere.

 Grin
This is "wisdom" that can be heard  from crypto youtubers that are basically living from equipment they got from companies and or a huge discounts for equipment they buy with their money.

This bear market will not be the same as previous cycles so don't look for any patterns regarding coins or equipment.
Positive wave will eventually come but will it be high enough to cover all off the burned land remains to see.

People who think to copy paste 2018-2020 period and use same GPU mining strategy for cycle  2022-2025 could be crushed heavily.
To run something as a business for few years month after month in red is not a business but gambling.
Every gamble can be Win or Lose, but if you gamble time after time eventually you go home empty pockets.

Safer bet would be to invest in BTC after next big dip sub $10K









 
jr. member
Activity: 133
Merit: 5
July 13, 2022, 05:27:50 AM
After we enter recession in full, somewhere after this winter we are probably hitting 4-7K again.
Asic miners will be cheaper then ever and GPU mining long gone this time, if that will be a thing again remain to see, I do not expect to see so big price jump to use GPU on any coins currently on the market.

 

GPU mining will not go anywhere, there are always new coins to shift your hashrate into with the hardware but profitability will vary with time. Might now be as profitable as it was this cycle again ever again though.

New hardware is always be more efficient and markets get saturated with new entrants and it will squeeze out all those who can't afford it. Driving costs up & profitability down.
It will reach equilibrium with time but it wall also mean only hobbyists are into it or full scale industrialists.

There will not be room for small ventures much longer unless you have other incomes to subsidize your mining costs with electricity etc from elsewhere.
full member
Activity: 728
Merit: 115
July 12, 2022, 10:55:09 AM
After we enter recession in full, somewhere after this winter we are probably hitting 4-7K again.
Asic miners will be cheaper then ever and GPU mining long gone this time, if that will be a thing again remain to see, I do not expect to see so big price jump to use GPU on any coins currently on the market.

 
sr. member
Activity: 2142
Merit: 353
Xtreme Monster
July 12, 2022, 09:23:46 AM
Yes, sub $10k BTC is the time to buy I think we have a few more months to get there, perhaps end of 22 early 23.

IMHO Doge is still sky high at 10 cents, or even 5 cents, better to wait until closer to 1 cent or even under.

And to the OP, just because you have mining rigs does not mean you need to use them. As a long time miner I have in previous bear markers shut down my rigs and just bought coins directly with the money I would have sent off to my power company. If the cost of mining coins is more than you can pay for them directly, do not feel you *must* mine.



I always said that btc will find its bottom around september 2022 to march 2023, right now btc is still overpriced. As it goes altcoins and everything will keep crashing, people need money to pay bills or buy things, so they will keep selling, selling pressure is very high on bear market, but remember this is not bear market yet, this is pre bear market. The worse has yet to come.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1011
July 11, 2022, 10:36:17 PM
Below 10K for BTC is the time to start investing if you want to target the next bull cycle down the road in a couple years or more.

Doge is already at the Buy price since it went below 10cents and really getting worthwhile @ 5cents and below if you want to accumulate as well for the next cycle.


Yes, sub $10k BTC is the time to buy I think we have a few more months to get there, perhaps end of 22 early 23.

IMHO Doge is still sky high at 10 cents, or even 5 cents, better to wait until closer to 1 cent or even under.

And to the OP, just because you have mining rigs does not mean you need to use them. As a long time miner I have in previous bear markers shut down my rigs and just bought coins directly with the money I would have sent off to my power company. If the cost of mining coins is more than you can pay for them directly, do not feel you *must* mine.

legendary
Activity: 4116
Merit: 7849
'The right to privacy matters'
June 22, 2022, 04:19:20 PM
Ethereum supply = 6 x Bitcoin supply.

1 / 6 = 0.16

Ultimately I feel like Ethereum should be 0.16 of Bitcoin, and potentially a higher ratio because of Ethereum's influence on the crypto space compared to Bitcoin and the fact that it might become deflationary after the Merge. So in my mind Ethereum is undervalued, not overvalued.

You have to remember as more ETH staking occurs it provides more stability in a crash. When Ethereum is locked up in staking it reduces panic selling. So forget about old trends. Bitcoin has been losing market share to altcoins in this crash. And one reason for that is staking.

https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-supply-staking-contract-10-milestone/

Around 12 Million ETH Is Now In The Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the ETH staking rate has observed further surge recently, taking the metric’s value to 10% of the total supply.

In case anyone’s not aware of what “staking” is, it’s best to take a look at the “proof of stake” (PoS) consensus system first.

In cryptocurrencies using the PoS framework, network validators (called the stakers) need to lock in a minimum amount of the crypto into a contract (32 ETH in case of Ethereum) to participate in the consensus system.

The network then randomly chooses one of the stakers to sign the next transaction (stakers with the higher staked amount have a better chance of being chosen).

Almost everything you said is true but pay attention, those locked eth will be unlocked and when once they are mass panic to sell as fast as possible will happen and that is when eth will crash a lot, possible prior the next bullrun, who knows but it will happen, yeah it could be good now because people feel safe those locked eth cant be sold but that is a double edged sword. It's not only eth, exchanges are manipulating everything to avoid a huge crash and that is not good for the market as a whole. It might be good for now but the trust is being broken, long term of what they are doing will be nasty.

About those 32 eth, eth scammer dev team came up with this 32 eth to be staked number, know what that means? even eth dev scam team already set eth price to btc and that is 32 eth, that is right, 32 eth = 1 btc, has always been and that is what they are planning to do long term and trying to hold that line but we know as eth supply is infinite and btc is not then will come a time where eth will depeg from those 32 eth = 1 btc and will crash meaning, 33 eth = btc then after a while, 34 eth = 1 btc and so on and that cant be prevented or avoided.
What's your source for the 32 ETH = 1 BTC price? That makes no sense at all. Initially they set a number of 500 ETH per validator. That was then lowered to 32 ETH because 500 ETH was too steep. Some people think even 32 ETH per validator is too steep. It had nothing to do with 1 BTC.

Of course now many people have been staking in pools with Coinbase,  Blockfi and unfortunately Celsius. We'll have to see what happens there.

Don't you think staked ETH would be unlocked gradually in case of a sell off? If interest rates rise after the merge why would you un-stake? And why selloff ETH to then incur a capital gains tax? Don't you think ETH stakers are long term investors as opposed to day traders?

Here’s why staking 32 ETH isn’t an easy proposition

https://eng.ambcrypto.com/eth-2-0-staking-proposition/

fall of 2020 the lated is kind of dated
member
Activity: 145
Merit: 12
June 20, 2022, 05:13:16 AM
Ethereum supply = 6 x Bitcoin supply.

1 / 6 = 0.16

Ultimately I feel like Ethereum should be 0.16 of Bitcoin, and potentially a higher ratio because of Ethereum's influence on the crypto space compared to Bitcoin and the fact that it might become deflationary after the Merge. So in my mind Ethereum is undervalued, not overvalued.

You have to remember as more ETH staking occurs it provides more stability in a crash. When Ethereum is locked up in staking it reduces panic selling. So forget about old trends. Bitcoin has been losing market share to altcoins in this crash. And one reason for that is staking.

https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-supply-staking-contract-10-milestone/

Around 12 Million ETH Is Now In The Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the ETH staking rate has observed further surge recently, taking the metric’s value to 10% of the total supply.

In case anyone’s not aware of what “staking” is, it’s best to take a look at the “proof of stake” (PoS) consensus system first.

In cryptocurrencies using the PoS framework, network validators (called the stakers) need to lock in a minimum amount of the crypto into a contract (32 ETH in case of Ethereum) to participate in the consensus system.

The network then randomly chooses one of the stakers to sign the next transaction (stakers with the higher staked amount have a better chance of being chosen).

Almost everything you said is true but pay attention, those locked eth will be unlocked and when once they are mass panic to sell as fast as possible will happen and that is when eth will crash a lot, possible prior the next bullrun, who knows but it will happen, yeah it could be good now because people feel safe those locked eth cant be sold but that is a double edged sword. It's not only eth, exchanges are manipulating everything to avoid a huge crash and that is not good for the market as a whole. It might be good for now but the trust is being broken, long term of what they are doing will be nasty.

About those 32 eth, eth scammer dev team came up with this 32 eth to be staked number, know what that means? even eth dev scam team already set eth price to btc and that is 32 eth, that is right, 32 eth = 1 btc, has always been and that is what they are planning to do long term and trying to hold that line but we know as eth supply is infinite and btc is not then will come a time where eth will depeg from those 32 eth = 1 btc and will crash meaning, 33 eth = btc then after a while, 34 eth = 1 btc and so on and that cant be prevented or avoided.
What's your source for the 32 ETH = 1 BTC price? That makes no sense at all. Initially they set a number of 500 ETH per validator. That was then lowered to 32 ETH because 500 ETH was too steep. Some people think even 32 ETH per validator is too steep. It had nothing to do with 1 BTC.

Of course now many people have been staking in pools with Coinbase,  Blockfi and unfortunately Celsius. We'll have to see what happens there.

Don't you think staked ETH would be unlocked gradually in case of a sell off? If interest rates rise after the merge why would you un-stake? And why selloff ETH to then incur a capital gains tax? Don't you think ETH stakers are long term investors as opposed to day traders?

Here’s why staking 32 ETH isn’t an easy proposition

https://eng.ambcrypto.com/eth-2-0-staking-proposition/
sr. member
Activity: 2142
Merit: 353
Xtreme Monster
June 20, 2022, 02:32:50 AM
Ethereum supply = 6 x Bitcoin supply.

1 / 6 = 0.16

Ultimately I feel like Ethereum should be 0.16 of Bitcoin, and potentially a higher ratio because of Ethereum's influence on the crypto space compared to Bitcoin and the fact that it might become deflationary after the Merge. So in my mind Ethereum is undervalued, not overvalued.

You have to remember as more ETH staking occurs it provides more stability in a crash. When Ethereum is locked up in staking it reduces panic selling. So forget about old trends. Bitcoin has been losing market share to altcoins in this crash. And one reason for that is staking.

https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-supply-staking-contract-10-milestone/

Around 12 Million ETH Is Now In The Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the ETH staking rate has observed further surge recently, taking the metric’s value to 10% of the total supply.

In case anyone’s not aware of what “staking” is, it’s best to take a look at the “proof of stake” (PoS) consensus system first.

In cryptocurrencies using the PoS framework, network validators (called the stakers) need to lock in a minimum amount of the crypto into a contract (32 ETH in case of Ethereum) to participate in the consensus system.

The network then randomly chooses one of the stakers to sign the next transaction (stakers with the higher staked amount have a better chance of being chosen).

Almost everything you said is true but pay attention, those locked eth will be unlocked and when once they are mass panic to sell as fast as possible will happen and that is when eth will crash a lot, possible prior the next bullrun, who knows but it will happen, yeah it could be good now because people feel safe those locked eth cant be sold but that is a double edged sword. It's not only eth, exchanges are manipulating everything to avoid a huge crash and that is not good for the market as a whole. It might be good for now but the trust is being broken, long term of what they are doing will be nasty.

About those 32 eth, eth scammer dev team came up with this 32 eth to be staked number, know what that means? even eth dev scam team already set eth price to btc and that is 32 eth, that is right, 32 eth = 1 btc, has always been and that is what they are planning to do long term and trying to hold that line but we know as eth supply is infinite and btc is not then will come a time where eth will depeg from those 32 eth = 1 btc and will crash meaning, 33 eth = btc then after a while, 34 eth = 1 btc and so on and that cant be prevented or avoided.
member
Activity: 145
Merit: 12
June 20, 2022, 01:36:21 AM
Below 10K for BTC is the time to start investing if you want to target the next bull cycle down the road in a couple years or more.

We do agree on one thing. POS = Piece Of Shit..
In the last month the price of ethereum has fallen -70%. With POS ethereum would be 70% less secure, but with POW the hashrate is almost the same. POW is using alot of energy, but prevents rich countries like China, Russia, Usa to enforce a killswitch in the network.. With the currently suggested Ethereum POS model they only need to buy 8% of the supply and replace the butterin code with the silent army code..
Source for the 8% claim?
member
Activity: 145
Merit: 12
June 20, 2022, 01:26:47 AM
#99
17.5k was not extreme, so i'm sure is not the bottom yet, the bottom is something extreme that nobody believes, for example like when btc crashed from 20k to 3k, right now to be as extreme as 20 to 3k, btc would have to crash to around 9k to 11k, that would be extreme. So reason i dont believe this is the bottom, it was too fast as well, the bottom takes time to be found.

About eth, eth still at 0.05 to btc, so is overvalued at the moment, eth to btc ratio in the crash is usually 0.03 and lower, so meaning if btc crashes to 10k eth will have to crash to 333 usd. This eth ratio will crash as we go from here, dont be surprised to see eth to btc crashing in the coming months and then we see the bottom, I mean in 2018 when btc crashed to 3k, eth to btc got as low as 0.015, so just for the sake of math, if btc crashes to 10k and that eth ratio is at 0.015 then that means eth at 150 usd, for refence always look what happened in 2018 November, will it happen that way again? we never know, if you dont believe this will crash more, you can always buy now, even if crashes a lot more no worries just keep your coins safe and hope for a better opportunity to sell high in few years.
Ethereum supply = 6 x Bitcoin supply.

1 / 6 = 0.16

Ultimately I feel like Ethereum should be 0.16 of Bitcoin, and potentially a higher ratio because of Ethereum's influence on the crypto space compared to Bitcoin and the fact that it might become deflationary after the Merge. So in my mind Ethereum is undervalued, not overvalued.

You have to remember as more ETH staking occurs it provides more stability in a crash. When Ethereum is locked up in staking it reduces panic selling. So forget about old trends. Bitcoin has been losing market share to altcoins in this crash. And one reason for that is staking.

https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-supply-staking-contract-10-milestone/

Around 12 Million ETH Is Now In The Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the ETH staking rate has observed further surge recently, taking the metric’s value to 10% of the total supply.

In case anyone’s not aware of what “staking” is, it’s best to take a look at the “proof of stake” (PoS) consensus system first.

In cryptocurrencies using the PoS framework, network validators (called the stakers) need to lock in a minimum amount of the crypto into a contract (32 ETH in case of Ethereum) to participate in the consensus system.

The network then randomly chooses one of the stakers to sign the next transaction (stakers with the higher staked amount have a better chance of being chosen).
jr. member
Activity: 70
Merit: 4
June 19, 2022, 06:34:07 PM
#98
Below 10K for BTC is the time to start investing if you want to target the next bull cycle down the road in a couple years or more.

We do agree on one thing. POS = Piece Of Shit..
In the last month the price of ethereum has fallen -70%. With POS ethereum would be 70% less secure, but with POW the hashrate is almost the same. POW is using alot of energy, but prevents rich countries like China, Russia, Usa to enforce a killswitch in the network.. With the currently suggested Ethereum POS model they only need to buy 8% of the supply and replace the butterin code with the silent army code..

...then they kill ETH and make then BTC bleed to hell...

sp_
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1087
Team Black developer
June 19, 2022, 03:45:02 PM
#97
Below 10K for BTC is the time to start investing if you want to target the next bull cycle down the road in a couple years or more.

We do agree on one thing. POS = Piece Of Shit..
In the last month the price of ethereum has fallen -70%. With POS ethereum would be 70% less secure, but with POW the hashrate is almost the same. POW is using alot of energy, but prevents rich countries like China, Russia, Usa to enforce a killswitch in the network.. With the currently suggested Ethereum POS model they only need to buy 8% of the supply and replace the butterin code with the silent army code..
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 152
June 19, 2022, 03:29:36 PM
#96
Bear market = low hashing difficulty = best time to mine and/or buy PC hardware

Few people understand this...
If I understood this, and I continued mining on just TWO Radeon R9 270 cards during the 2014-2016 bear market on VERT/DASH/ETH, I would be a millionaire. But sadly I made the mistake of abandoning crypto when the prices fell. My other mistake was only opening a mining warehouse when the price peaked, which is how I almost went bankrupt. I only ended up with one rig in late 2018, but that rig paid for itself 6x in the next 3 years. This time I won't repeat that mistake ever again. I will mine with at least 150 video cards during this bear market.

I expect GPU coin difficulty to collapse by 50% this summer, so instead of 0.000033 BTC/day, we'll get 0.00007 BTC/day for an RTX 3060. Here are my projections. I used $72k BTC as a conservative estimate:



We should start thinking in terms of cost per BTC, NOT fiat 'profit'!
sp_
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1087
Team Black developer
June 19, 2022, 02:48:47 PM
#95
Yeah it's a pow coin that even the main dev sold his 100% stake just to get rid of the failure coin and then comes somebody hype it and now everything is okay and is not a failure? ehhe, thankgod I never invested in it.

If an entrepeneur sell his business, it doesn't meen that the business will shut down. Doge is pretty good and secure.
sr. member
Activity: 2142
Merit: 353
Xtreme Monster
June 19, 2022, 01:51:01 PM
#94
10k might not be possible.. 20k and 30k is a sure reclaim..that is 2x and 3x money(spot), there is also leverage (just low enough to not get liquidated). that is an easy money, can bet big and win big.

we are not in 2013 anymore where some people are not sure if there are millionaires and billionaires in crypto...can be hit if saylor gets liquidated LOL  Grin

There is a lot of time yet for this to crash to hehell, from september 2022 to march 2023 we will know the bottom, it still too early to know the bottom, in this market you have to have lots of patience if you want to profit, buy too fast or sell too fast is not good.

Just want to put this here for the record, the value(purchasing power) of 10k in 2018-19 and the value of 10k in 2022-23 are different.

Yeah true but the price to mine one btc is still around 9k - 12k and btc usually crashes to that value when the bottom is found. Anybody paying more than 9k - 12k for btc, at this moment is 19.5k then soon they will become sellers when this starts to crash. That will happen if they dont take profit now or very soon. There will be bultraps yet.
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 1059
June 19, 2022, 01:42:58 PM
#93
10k might not be possible.. 20k and 30k is a sure reclaim..that is 2x and 3x money(spot), there is also leverage (just low enough to not get liquidated). that is an easy money, can bet big and win big.

we are not in 2013 anymore where some people are not sure if there are millionaires and billionaires in crypto...can be hit if saylor gets liquidated LOL  Grin

There is a lot of time yet for this to crash to hehell, from september 2022 to march 2023 we will know the bottom, it still too early to know the bottom, in this market you have to have lots of patience if you want to profit, buy too fast or sell too fast is not good.

Just want to put this here for the record, the value(purchasing power) of 10k in 2018-19 and the value of 10k in 2022-23 are different.
sr. member
Activity: 2142
Merit: 353
Xtreme Monster
June 19, 2022, 11:52:51 AM
#92
10k might not be possible.. 20k and 30k is a sure reclaim..that is 2x and 3x money(spot), there is also leverage (just low enough to not get liquidated). that is an easy money, can bet big and win big.

we are not in 2013 anymore where some people are not sure if there are millionaires and billionaires in crypto...can be hit if saylor gets liquidated LOL  Grin

There is a lot of time yet for this to crash to hehell, from september 2022 to march 2023 we will know the bottom, it still too early to know the bottom, in this market you have to have lots of patience if you want to profit, buy too fast or sell too fast is not good.
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 1059
June 19, 2022, 10:42:03 AM
#91
Below 10K for BTC is the time to start investing if you want to target the next bull cycle down the road in a couple years or more.

Doge is already at the Buy price since it went below 10cents and really getting worthwhile @ 5cents and below if you want to accumulate as well for the next cycle.


Yeah, btc below 10k or around 10k is not bad, dogecoin to be acceptable as it contains high risk compared to btc, it needs to crash down to $0.001 or lower then I might purchase 5% of my money in it, that was its price before elon musk hyped it and sheeps started buying it. Anybody buying doge scamcoin for $0.05 right now deserves to be scammed.

10k might not be possible.. 20k and 30k is a sure reclaim..that is 2x and 3x money(spot), there is also leverage (just low enough to not get liquidated). that is an easy money, can bet big and win big.

we are not in 2013 anymore where some people are not sure if there are millionaires and billionaires in crypto...can be hit if saylor gets liquidated LOL  Grin
sr. member
Activity: 2142
Merit: 353
Xtreme Monster
June 19, 2022, 10:41:01 AM
#90
Doge is a POW coin. Perhaps priced too high, but not a dead project.. Guessing the future proce is difficult, but both btc and ethereum are oversold at the moment. If you time it right you can get an easy +50% in a few weeks.

Yeah it's a pow coin that even the main dev sold his 100% stake just to get rid of the failure coin and then comes somebody hype it and now everything is okay and is not a failure? ehhe, thankgod I never invested in it.
sr. member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 308
June 19, 2022, 10:37:25 AM
#89
Bear market = low hashing difficulty = best time to mine and/or buy PC hardware

Few people understand this...
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