How bad can it get? - page 5. | Bitcointalksearch.org

FP91G

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Quote from: arielbit on June 06, 2022, 01:36:34 PM

Quote from: Coinfarm ventures on June 06, 2022, 11:34:08 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on June 05, 2022, 06:22:43 PM

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

Then why LHR?, (algo and price manipulation)

Saving gpu mining is not a business model..owning gpu mining is a business model.

My projection is still very far but it can now be projected, so there is a possibility.

The GPU sold out, price increase and limit per customer happened. --> this cannot be called small time or nothing.

Even a pump and dump during a new series release is a good business move.

The release of LHR video cards helped sellers avoid warranty risks. Nvidia sold mining video cards with a maximum warranty of 6 months but I have seen 3 months or less.
When the buyer was ready to buy any video card, LHR models appeared. When the buyer began to choose AMD, hackers appeared who hacked LHR. That's a coincidence.

arielbit

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Quote from: Coinfarm ventures on June 06, 2022, 11:34:08 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on June 05, 2022, 06:22:43 PM

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

Then why LHR?, (algo and price manipulation)

Saving gpu mining is not a business model..owning gpu mining is a business model.

My projection is still very far but it can now be projected, so there is a possibility.

The GPU sold out, price increase and limit per customer happened. --> this cannot be called small time or nothing.

Even a pump and dump during a new series release is a good business move.

a1 Hashrate LLC2022

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Quote from: Coinfarm ventures on June 06, 2022, 11:34:08 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on June 05, 2022, 06:22:43 PM

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

Hmm not sure If V.B. vanishes and his replacements put off POS for 1 year Eth Pow is effectively saved.

Jack Ma disappeared for a very long time.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56448688

Mr V could easily vanish for the same amount of time.

Coinfarm ventures

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Quote from: philipma1957 on June 05, 2022, 06:22:43 PM

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Coinfarm ventures on June 04, 2022, 03:29:37 PM

Quote from: FP91G on June 04, 2022, 07:54:29 AM

But this does not solve the performance problems of other projects and smart contracts. Even if the developers turn off the difficulty bomb in the new fork, this exchange coin will not be listed for trading and the miners will not work at a loss.

Forked or not, the bottom line will be that Vitalik & Co.'s PoS chain will retain the vast majority of its market cap. The PoW chain will be almost worthless, like $50 per Ether if we're lucky. Best case, it becomes like the ETC fork back in 2016 or BCH in 2017.

But regardless, 90%+ of the total block reward available to GPU miners will vanish overnight, and no rig will be profitable except at free power. Even if the PoS chain ran into a major bug and they want to go back to PoW, that would still destroy confidence in ETH, meaning mining profit would crash by 90% anyway.

The only possible outcomes of PoS are PoS wins, PoW loses or PoS loses, PoW loses. There is no scenario where PoW wins.

Yes there is.

V B vanishes someone takes over and says we aint going pos v b was a moron.

I give that a small chance.

VB and co already blinked and delayed pos from aug to sept.

he must be finding it very hard to sleep at night knowing he has spilt eth follower’s into pow and pos camps.

a lot depends on whom actually is backing him and what they really want him to do.

I have to think
Nvidia
Amd
Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

adds to over 800 billion
eth market cap is well under that last I looked.

Coinfarm ventures

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Quote from: swogerino on June 05, 2022, 12:38:54 PM

Right now Ethereum Classic is holding very well in the profitability for the same hash rate as the ETH as ETC just gives you a couple of dollars less.

Not anymore if/when ETH were to go PoS. Millions of video cards will be flocking to the remaining 5% of the available GPU revenue. Profitability of ETC, FLUX, ERG, etc. will be near zero for weeks or months. ETC will be strictly an ASIC coin anyway. So we'll actually be left with 2% of the revenue.

Quote from: swogerino on June 05, 2022, 12:38:54 PM

I think since the beginning of mining PoW has always worked and has always been the winner in mining,I think this is not going to change even if Ethereum goes PoS,it will be a loss for Ethereum and not for the miners and PoW algorithm.I think Ethereum Classic has the capacity to accommodate the miners for the short term span until a new coin like Ethereum comes out.I believe in the win of miners so Ethereum and the people following it after moving to PoS will be the only losers.

I was talking about Ethereum specifically. Of course I believe PoW on GPUs will win in the long run, but when it comes to ETH, we shouldn't celebrate/wish for a failure of PoS, because that would hurt confidence in the coin as a whole, therefore mining profit would go to zero on ETH even if it reverted to PoW.

Quote from: FP91G on June 05, 2022, 12:55:55 PM

Miners will look for other coins, but they will not be happy with the profit.

This is exactly what will happen. There will be no profit on the other GPU coins until enough miners capitulate and sell their rigs. Once hashrate comes down, profit will improve.

FP91G

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Quote from: Coinfarm ventures on June 04, 2022, 03:29:37 PM

Quote from: FP91G on June 04, 2022, 07:54:29 AM

But this does not solve the performance problems of other projects and smart contracts. Even if the developers turn off the difficulty bomb in the new fork, this exchange coin will not be listed for trading and the miners will not work at a loss.

Forked or not, the bottom line will be that Vitalik & Co.'s PoS chain will retain the vast majority of its market cap. The PoW chain will be almost worthless, like $50 per Ether if we're lucky. Best case, it becomes like the ETC fork back in 2016 or BCH in 2017.

But regardless, 90%+ of the total block reward available to GPU miners will vanish overnight, and no rig will be profitable except at free power. Even if the PoS chain ran into a major bug and they want to go back to PoW, that would still destroy confidence in ETH, meaning mining profit would crash by 90% anyway.

The only possible outcomes of PoS are PoS wins, PoW loses or PoS loses, PoW loses. There is no scenario where PoW wins.

in 2016, smart contracts were just starting to be launched, and because of the hacking of the most famous smart contract, a fork appeared. Now it's a huge system that can't be cloned. Miners will look for other coins, but they will not be happy with the profit.

swogerino

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Quote

The only possible outcomes of PoS are PoS wins, PoW loses or PoS loses, PoW loses. There is no scenario where PoW wins.

That is somewhat radical from your point of view.Right now Ethereum Classic is holding very well in the profitability for the same hash rate as the ETH as ETC just gives you a couple of dollars less.I think since the beginning of mining PoW has always worked and has always been the winner in mining,I think this is not going to change even if Ethereum goes PoS,it will be a loss for Ethereum and not for the miners and PoW algorithm.I think Ethereum Classic has the capacity to accommodate the miners for the short term span until a new coin like Ethereum comes out.I believe in the win of miners so Ethereum and the people following it after moving to PoS will be the only losers.

Coinfarm ventures

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Quote from: FP91G on June 04, 2022, 07:54:29 AM

But this does not solve the performance problems of other projects and smart contracts. Even if the developers turn off the difficulty bomb in the new fork, this exchange coin will not be listed for trading and the miners will not work at a loss.

Forked or not, the bottom line will be that Vitalik & Co.'s PoS chain will retain the vast majority of its market cap. The PoW chain will be almost worthless, like $50 per Ether if we're lucky. Best case, it becomes like the ETC fork back in 2016 or BCH in 2017.

But regardless, 90%+ of the total block reward available to GPU miners will vanish overnight, and no rig will be profitable except at free power. Even if the PoS chain ran into a major bug and they want to go back to PoW, that would still destroy confidence in ETH, meaning mining profit would crash by 90% anyway.

The only possible outcomes of PoS are PoS wins, PoW loses or PoS loses, PoW loses. There is no scenario where PoW wins.

FP91G

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Quote from: adaseb on June 03, 2022, 11:07:36 PM

Well the reason why ETC worked is because the difficulty bomb wasn’t anywhere close. So that’s why the old chain could of survived by a single miner since unlike BTC the retarget difficulty is much quicker.

If some people decide to mine the old ETH chain then there will be no point because it’ll basically hit the difficulty bomb shortly after and the chain will be unusable. This was the point of the difficulty bomb pretty much.

So nobody will buy the new token because they know that’s the chain will eventually stop unless some dev takes over and removes the difficulty bomb like ETC did.

But this does not solve the performance problems of other projects and smart contracts. Even if the developers turn off the difficulty bomb in the new fork, this exchange coin will not be listed for trading and the miners will not work at a loss.

adaseb

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Well the reason why ETC worked is because the difficulty bomb wasn’t anywhere close. So that’s why the old chain could of survived by a single miner since unlike BTC the retarget difficulty is much quicker.

If some people decide to mine the old ETH chain then there will be no point because it’ll basically hit the difficulty bomb shortly after and the chain will be unusable. This was the point of the difficulty bomb pretty much.

So nobody will buy the new token because they know that’s the chain will eventually stop unless some dev takes over and removes the difficulty bomb like ETC did.

FP91G

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Quote from: Metroid on June 02, 2022, 01:55:29 PM

Quote from: FP91G on June 02, 2022, 01:49:46 PM

Do you seriously think that someone can create a coin that can use at least half of the Ethereum hashrate and it will be profitable for mining?
An ethereum fork will not solve this problem and ethereum classic already exists.

They will make an eth fork and preserve pow on that fork, I wonder how long that will work, price will be at lowest.

And how will all smart contracts and other related projects like Matic work? I think it is very difficult to implement and this fork will be useless due to many problems, because ethereum related projects will not support it.

Metroid

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Quote from: adaseb on June 02, 2022, 11:07:54 PM

I don’t think it’s possible for their to be an Ethereum classic classic fork. It’s mostly due to the difficulty bomb.

I dont have inside info on that so I cant be sure, last I heard it was a group working on that. The way things are, not going to be surprised if it takes over eth main branch in future because of staying at pow, that is for the people to decide, the issue here is if that fork is created by scammers devs then that will be just a pump and dump coin. As far as I see, eth current devs are all scammers in their own way, not like regular scammers, the issue is if regular scammers devs take control of it or create it for that solely purpose, need to be very careful.

Quote from: Maliceprime on June 02, 2022, 03:12:32 PM

The way you think is out of this world and yea you are always on point, I am glad I knew what I was heading for when I built my mining rigs, I don't have any intention of selling even if a 60MH turn 0.2$, what I lost is dollar value and I will keep mining and holding till another bull season gets here, my 100$ after few months of mining can turn 2000$ again.

In this market you have to look out for you, the greatest wild west finance of the 21th century for sure, aka the greatest pyramid scheme as far as it exists at moment.

adaseb

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I don’t think it’s possible for their to be an Ethereum classic classic fork. It’s mostly due to the difficulty bomb.

Basically in a month or two they will release a new software that every exchange and pool needs to upgrade to which will have the fork block number subscribed.

If a miner wants to run the old software they will end up going nowhere due to the difficulty bomb. Sure it’s possible the chain might survive a day or so but I doubt it will be as successful as ETC.

Maliceprime

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Quote from: Metroid on June 01, 2022, 01:11:20 AM

Quote from: Coinfarm ventures on May 31, 2022, 10:20:53 PM

I think we will see a lot more capitulation than late 2018 if/when ETH goes to PoS. At least in 2018, it was a lot slower. But PoS will be like the revenue dropping by 95% overnight. It will be so bad that even miners with 3 cent power will be unprofitable. That's when the real selloff would start. I wouldn't be surprised if RTX 3090's will cost just $500!

No matter how much truth you tell them, they will never learn unless they go through the process, 3090's could go for even less than 500 usd, very few people mine at loss, most will sell and will not have demand to keep gpus at msrp, bear market is the opposite of bull market, in bull market, coin is king, in bear market, fiat is king and will take time for things get back to normal again, this is still pre bear market because manipulators want to trap more people yet close to top.

The way you think is out of this world and yea you are always on point, I am glad I knew what I was heading for when I built my mining rigs, I don't have any intention of selling even if a 60MH turn 0.2$, what I lost is dollar value and I will keep mining and holding till another bull season gets here, my 100$ after few months of mining can turn 2000$ again.

Coinfarm ventures

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Quote from: FP91G on June 02, 2022, 01:49:46 PM

Do you seriously think that someone can create a coin that can use at least half of the Ethereum hashrate and it will be profitable for mining?

That is why I said:

Quote

No GPU coin will be profitable even at 2 cent power for a while

Metroid

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Quote from: FP91G on June 02, 2022, 01:49:46 PM

Do you seriously think that someone can create a coin that can use at least half of the Ethereum hashrate and it will be profitable for mining?
An ethereum fork will not solve this problem and ethereum classic already exists.

They will make an eth fork and preserve pow on that fork, I wonder how long that will work, price will be at lowest.

FP91G

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Quote from: Coinfarm ventures on June 02, 2022, 12:23:41 AM

Quote from: adaseb on June 01, 2022, 11:34:17 PM

Wonder how 2022 will be. If it goes POS then I am pretty sure it will be an instant capitulation for every miner.

If there's a recession at the end of this year in the U.S., along with ETH PoS, that will create the perfect storm. The capitulation phase would be a lot quicker than late 2018. Merge block number announced, then everything goes to 'hehell'. In a matter of days, video card prices crash from +10% MSRP to -30% MSRP. They eventually end up at half of MSRP. AMD cards suffer more because they are more tied to mining. where RTX 3090 prices could dive as low as $400.

No GPU coin will be profitable even at 2 cent power for a while. When the panic phase is over, I think we will see similar profit levels to early 2019. Certain video cards like the RTX 3000's might have a 3-4 year payback time, while others are 10 years. The market will remain in that limbo state until/if another GPU PoW coin goes big. You'll still be able to make a 30% or so return per year if power costs 8 cents.

Do you seriously think that someone can create a coin that can use at least half of the Ethereum hashrate and it will be profitable for mining?
An ethereum fork will not solve this problem and ethereum classic already exists.

Coinfarm ventures

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Quote from: adaseb on June 01, 2022, 11:34:17 PM

Wonder how 2022 will be. If it goes POS then I am pretty sure it will be an instant capitulation for every miner.

If there's a recession at the end of this year in the U.S., along with ETH PoS, that will create the perfect storm. The capitulation phase would be a lot quicker than late 2018. Merge block number announced, then everything goes to 'hehell'. In a matter of days, video card prices crash from +10% MSRP to -30% MSRP. They eventually end up at half of MSRP. AMD cards suffer more because they are more tied to mining. where RTX 3090 prices could dive as low as $400.

No GPU coin will be profitable even at 2 cent power for a while. When the panic phase is over, I think we will see similar profit levels to early 2019. Certain video cards like the RTX 3000's might have a 3-4 year payback time, while others are 10 years. The market will remain in that limbo state until/if another GPU PoW coin goes big. You'll still be able to make a 30% or so return per year if power costs 8 cents.

adaseb

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The capitulation of 2018 was pretty much instant. All it took was for Bitcoin to break the $6K support in November and many stopped mining then and there.

2014-2015 was much slower and no capitulation really. Just as weeks went by people just shut off their rigs one by one. It was a very boring year and many quit just out of boredom.

Wonder how 2022 will be. If it goes POS then I am pretty sure it will be an instant capitulation for every miner.

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