I've been pondering this question over the past few days, trying to work out what the total level of exposure to Pirate's scheme is on these forums. Obviously we have information like the fact that he apparently paid out 26000BTC in interest this week, but we don't know either the average rate (although presumably much is in passthroughs at 7%) or the amount of accounts that are set to automatically compound rather than pay out interest weekly.
Obviously in analysing the prospect of an imminent default, it would be good to know what level of liability you're looking at, and I'm personally quite concerned over how exposed the market has got.
So, it seems that the majority of BTCST deposits are in passthroughs (although it's difficult to know, given that there's so much smoke and mirrors surrounding total levels of deposits and the like).
So, looking at some of the pass-through programs we can try to work out how much is being invested:
BitcoinMax - in the region of
BTC110000 (based on interest payments)
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoinmaxcom-closed-83904BurtW's PPT bonds - about
BTC18000 most of the time based on compounding interest over 4 weeks
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--76594INAU - Unknown amounts, targeting large BTC amounts, he presumably has tier-1 trust account status so at least
BTC25000 in that account
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/insured-ppt-0-btc-available-91375Hashking - Unknown total, also a tier 1 account so >
BTC25000. He has 8000BTC of principal in deposits to his 50% insured pirate bonds. The amount uninsured bonds is unknown.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/hashkings-lendingdeposit-125-insured-all-ppt-accounts-closing-on-819-66802Brendio - Tier 2 account, so between
BTC15000 and
BTC25000. Claims to be near the top end of that.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/reopened-brendios-private-pirate-pass-through-675-weekly-82772notme - Previously had about 2000BTC in his PPT, not sure if the current spreadsheets are accurate but if so he's down at 144BTC now having lost out on trust account status.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/savings-account-275-weekly-closed-60405OgNasty - Provides data!
BTC720.36
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/reserve-fund-has-been-paid-out-this-is-now-closed-75843ShadowAlexey -
BTC2155
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/shadowalexeys-deposits-10-15month-closed-75738TyGrr-P - Goat's bonds,
BTC30000
https://glbse.com/asset/view/TYGRR.BOND-PBitFoo - Another GLBSE bond,
BTC4674 issued,
https://glbse.com/asset/view/FOO.PPPPTAlso, known deposits from forum members direct:
Patrick Harnett - apparently about
BTC10000, although his own program does not hold BTCST assets
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/starfish-bcb-loans-and-deposits-61262Working on the low-end estimates for certain trust accounts (and totally ignoring undisclosed exposure from other members) that gives exposure of
BTC240,693.36 or $2.56 million at the most recent MtGox price.
Obviously some of these numbers are rough estimates, and I have no idea how much over and above this is held by some lenders that don't disclose totals (PPT ops - I'd love it if you could shed some light on your level of exposure for the sake of having accurate data in the community). In addition, asides Patrick, I'm not aware of anyone disclosing even an estimate of the amount they hold in a private BTCST account (again, if you have one and want to contribute please do).