Assume average North American, requiring $30,000 per year of today's purchasing power, no other debt.
This is by no means average. $30k is well under the average income that most people in the US have.
Topic: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? - page 9. (Read 14028 times)
The median per capita income in the US ist actually $28k. (source: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html). That includes children, though. On the other hand you can substract opportunity costs of having a job, like commuting and business clothing etc. So $30k should be quite fine.
Assume average North American, requiring $30,000 per year of today's purchasing power, no other debt.
This is by no means average. $30k is well under the average income that most people in the US have. Unfortunately most people also have debt so this would also not be "average"You need to add how old you are. It would take a lot more money to retire if you are 30 then if you are 70 as your money would need to last a lot longer. If you want your money to last forever then you would need enough to purchase an immediate annuity that pays "forever"; I would say that the long term expected rate of return for conservative investments would be no more then 5% so you would need
You would need to say what you expect the long term inflation rate would be in order to accurately calculate how much you would need to keep your draws indexed to inflation.
Assume average North American, requiring $30,000 per year of today's purchasing power, no other debt.
This is by no means average. $30k is well under the average income that most people in the US have. Unfortunately most people also have debt so this would also not be "average"You need to add how old you are. It would take a lot more money to retire if you are 30 then if you are 70 as your money would need to last a lot longer. If you want your money to last forever then you would need enough to purchase an immediate annuity that pays "forever"; I would say that the long term expected rate of return for conservative investments would be no more then 5% so you would need $6 million to get $30k every year forever, however this would not be in today's dollars but rather a fixed amount.
You would need to say what you expect the long term inflation rate would be in order to accurately calculate how much you would need to keep your draws indexed to inflation.
Most people think that you need 2 million to retire. I say you only need 500k-1m if you invest it right and get between 5 and 10 percent, (and if soc. security is still around) and you've paid off your house, you should be okay. Bitcoin could be worth 500k or it could be worth nothing, my money is on in the low 6 figure range at its peak.
2014 + 6 = 2020. If 10x/year trend continues, by that time the bitcoin will complete it's exponential phase. It'll reach or almost reach it's limit and it's total purchasing parity will slowly grow with the growth of world GDP (which is about 7% annually, on average). The number of bitcoins will grow with rate about of 4%, and after the halving of 2021, - 2% per year.
So, your bitcoin's capital purchasing parity will grow, on average, 7%-2% = 5% per year. For this 5% worth 30K$, your whole bitcoin capital must be worth (in today's purchasing parity) 600K$.
How much will bitcoin cost in 6 years? Optimistic scenarios vary from 100K$ to 1M$ (pessimistic - zero
). Therefore to retire in 6 years time with equvalent of today's 30K$ annuall income you will need capital of 0.6 - 6 btc.
So, your bitcoin's capital purchasing parity will grow, on average, 7%-2% = 5% per year. For this 5% worth 30K$, your whole bitcoin capital must be worth (in today's purchasing parity) 600K$.
How much will bitcoin cost in 6 years? Optimistic scenarios vary from 100K$ to 1M$ (pessimistic - zero
). Therefore to retire in 6 years time with equvalent of today's 30K$ annuall income you will need capital of 0.6 - 6 btc.Another GWP reference in the same thread? BTC is not a measure of productivity or even economic activity. It correlates far more closely with money supply, specifically M2.
If GWP increases 7% and velocity increases 7% (and all BTC are mined), you should only see minor fluctuations. If mining continues, you'd see mild degradation in value.
To retire comfortable, honestly, I would say 1,000BTC.
1000BTC is enough even for now, 5% withdrawal rate give you 30k yearly expense. 5% yearly appreciation rate for Bitcoin is very conservative. In 5-6 years, I think we only need 100BTC.
Implying a 6k USD BTC price, which seems incredibly low in 5 years' time. In one year's time, I could see that, after a single bubble crash. I think 2 more bubbles in 5 years is a minimum, with a 15k BTC being the least result which can be reasonably envisioned, so 30 BTC should do the trick, if you don't need to travel, and your medicall is socialized. 4 bubbles is more likely, so 10 BTC is probably going to be adequate to that scenario.
To retire comfortable, honestly, I would say 1,000BTC.
1000BTC is enough even for now, 5% withdrawal rate give you 30k yearly expense. 5% yearly appreciation rate for Bitcoin is very conservative. In 5-6 years, I think we only need 100BTC.
To retire in 5 years I'd have at least 25BTC tucked away in cold storage.
I am surprised everybody here thinks BTC will be worth $5,000 in 5 years?
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
Lol. Its not a commodity. And its going to be worth much more than $1000 in 5 years. Thats almost laughable.
Your nickname is awesome
Most people can only see black or white. If there is no place for something in their worldview, then they will completely ANTI. Sad but true.
Those guys are mostly religeous too... figuers
I am surprised everybody here thinks BTC will be worth $5,000 in 5 years?
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
Lol. Its not a commodity. And its going to be worth much more than $1000 in 5 years. Thats almost laughable.
I am surprised everybody here thinks BTC will be worth $5,000 in 5 years?
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
Lol. Its not a commodity. And its going to be worth much more than $1000 in 5 years. Thats almost laughable.
2014 + 6 = 2020. If 10x/year trend continues, by that time the bitcoin will complete it's exponential phase. It'll reach or almost reach it's limit and it's total purchasing parity will slowly grow with the growth of world GDP (which is about 7% annually, on average). The number of bitcoins will grow with rate about of 4%, and after the halving of 2021, - 2% per year.
So, your bitcoin's capital purchasing parity will grow, on average, 7%-2% = 5% per year. For this 5% worth 30K$, your whole bitcoin capital must be worth (in today's purchasing parity) 600K$.
How much will bitcoin cost in 6 years? Optimistic scenarios vary from 100K$ to 1M$ (pessimistic - zero). Therefore to retire in 6 years time with equvalent of today's 30K$ annuall income you will need capital of 0.6 - 6 btc.
So, your bitcoin's capital purchasing parity will grow, on average, 7%-2% = 5% per year. For this 5% worth 30K$, your whole bitcoin capital must be worth (in today's purchasing parity) 600K$.
How much will bitcoin cost in 6 years? Optimistic scenarios vary from 100K$ to 1M$ (pessimistic - zero
). Therefore to retire in 6 years time with equvalent of today's 30K$ annuall income you will need capital of 0.6 - 6 btc. I am surprised everybody here thinks BTC will be worth $5,000 in 5 years?
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
The thing is, if it survives the price is bound to rise. And i say that with an "IF"
I am surprised everybody here thinks BTC will be worth $5,000 in 5 years?
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
That's what they said about BRK.A My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
I am surprised everybody here thinks BTC will be worth $5,000 in 5 years?
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
My prediction is that it might be worth around $1,000 IF IT survives and $0 if it crashes due to some hack or theft. Its a very risky commodity.
There are 12 million $Millionaires. ( not enough Bitcoins for everyone to hold 2.1 BTC )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire
The World Wealth Report 2013 found the World’s High Net Worth (HNW) population growing to 12 million with their assets expected to rise to $55.8 trillion by 2015.[16]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire
The World Wealth Report 2013 found the World’s High Net Worth (HNW) population growing to 12 million with their assets expected to rise to $55.8 trillion by 2015.[16]
Every investment will collapse. Your gold will be confiscated. Your land will be heavily taxed. Hyper-inflation will make your fiat worthless. Nothing is safe, until Bitcoin. Save what you can, never spend more than you need. Retire now and live as cheaply as you can and enjoy life.
Problem for most is, that they can't retire with the amount they have now.
instead of retiring, people are downshifting these days, and I think that this is healthier and better for most people on non-physical jobs. Studies on college professors had shown that those who got part time positions in the same school after semi-retirement were much happier (happier even than before down-shifting).
Yes, I have to agree with that.
My life goal is to not HAVE to work, but be ABLE to work and not needing the income of it.
Dependency on anything is a B I T C H
Every investment will collapse. Your gold will be confiscated. Your land will be heavily taxed. Hyper-inflation will make your fiat worthless. Nothing is safe, until Bitcoin. Save what you can, never spend more than you need. Retire now and live as cheaply as you can and enjoy life.
Problem for most is, that they can't retire with the amount they have now.
instead of retiring, people are downshifting these days, and I think that this is healthier and better for most people on non-physical jobs. Studies on college professors had shown that those who got part time positions in the same school after semi-retirement were much happier (happier even than before down-shifting).
Every investment will collapse. Your gold will be confiscated. Your land will be heavily taxed. Hyper-inflation will make your fiat worthless. Nothing is safe, until Bitcoin. Save what you can, never spend more than you need. Retire now and live as cheaply as you can and enjoy life.
Problem for most is, that they can't retire with the amount they have now.
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