Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.
What kind of data do you look at to come to this conclusion? I can't imagine $40k, let alone $1 million (that's not to say they aren't possible, just that I can't wrap my head around it). They all just seem like wild guesses to me.
These are NOT wild guesses, if we are considering the market cap and how much storage of wealth could be contained within the bitcoin and also used for value transmission, plus additional public ledger features.
But how to you assign a number value to that? I'm not saying that these things don't provide immense value, and I'm not dismissing the targets. I just don't see how one can make those sorts of projections.
$40k is only around 65x times current value. So I believe bitcoins utility can grow 65x it's current rate over next 5-20 years. That's not wild and crazy.
O.k. I agree with WindJC's above explanation.
Marbit, if you read through various above discussions in this thread including a bunch of my speculations regarding how market cap relates to price, we can envision a large number of scenarios in which BTC's market cap has to go up in order to accommodate the increasing use, network effect and all of that. You can look at the growth of any budding technology or innovation and you will see gianormous increases in value as these new innovations are developing and from the early adoption stages into their later stages... Bitcoin brings a lot of innovations to the table, and if you have studies BTC the network (rather than merely BTC the currency), you can come to appreciate the multiple innovations that BTC brings to the table.. and appreciate that BTC is far and beyond (at the moment) the king of cryptos.
Surely bitcoin may NOT accomplish as much growth as it is hyped up to achieve and it may be surplanted, but that does NOT mean that the potential is NOT there or that we are engaging in wild and crazy speculations in order to achieve these kinds of numbers, especially numbers in the $10k to $50k range within the coming years.
I personally think it is wild and crazy (but not impossible) to expect $1 million value in 5 years, but $10K to $50K is totally within realistic and doable parameters.
The answer to your question about putting numbers on each BTC seems to have already been answered, no? We are NOT merely talking about the price of 1 BTC b/c that is a fairly random unit, and maybe the BTC space should adopt a different unit of value, but we need to think about the BTC space as a whole and as a network and its market cap. I think you put numbers on this price per BTC by considering the systems that BTC would be replacing, competing with and/or supplanting as it gains in popularity (that is gold, western union, pay pal, credit cards, banks, various currencies, etc). There is value in getting into that currency, value transmittal and storage of value space.