Topic: How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years? - page 6. (Read 14028 times)

$40k is only around 65x times current value. So I believe bitcoins utility can grow 65x it's current rate over next 5-20 years. That's not wild and crazy.

Depends on the future price of bitcoins obviously, but I think that everything bigger than 100 btc should be fine.

But how to you assign a number value to that? I'm not saying that these things don't provide immense value, and I'm not dismissing the targets. I just don't see how one can make those sorts of projections.

Citing to authority regarding the ludicrous nature of the all or nothing concept does NOT bring it greater legitimacy. 

I agree and I have NO problem with the disruptive technology of bitcoin, and I have NO problem with the concept of exponential growth caused by adoption and networking - however, for the most part, the world does NOT work in all or nothing .. there are transition periods... and even if bitcoin is revolutionary and takes over a large segment of the financial world, money transmission and the storage of value, it is going to take a bit of time to arrive at that point - the btc infrastructure is JUST NOT ready at this time to go to $1million per BTC and I doubt it can handle $20k per BTC, at this time.  Accordingly, there is going to be some transition and there is going to be some up and down in the BTC market prices.

ON the other hand, there could be a technological glitch that causes BTC to go to zero; however, there are other potential outcomes, including governmental and bank hostility to attempt to cause BTC to go underground, which could cause lower prices (but NOT zero).

For what it's worth, here are two quotes from Satoshi that explain the all or nothing mindset:

Feb. 14, 2010: "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume."

Feb. 18, 2009: "As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.

It just seems hard to imagine any 'success' scenario where said success doesn't then cause even more users to jump on board and thus pump up the value to ultimately massive highs. This should hold true as long as bitcoin remains strong in network effects and technological superiority over fiat. I would say the public would have to become apathetic to bitcoin for it to top out at a 'good but sort of moderate' value, which is unlikely given the disruptive nature of it.

These are NOT wild guesses, if we are considering the market cap and how much storage of wealth could be contained within the bitcoin and also used for value transmission, plus additional public ledger features.

What kind of data do you look at to come to this conclusion? I can't imagine $40k, let alone $1 million (that's not to say they aren't possible, just that I can't wrap my head around it). They all just seem like wild guesses to me.

Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.

Generally, I am talking about traditional investment vehicles that are used for retirement.  With traditional investment vehicles, in which people are planning for retirement and to preserve the principle of their investment, investment planners tend to calculate a 3-5% withdrawal rate - 3% being conservative and 5% being more ambitious.

The withdrawal rate assumes that the fund can on average generate that level of interest from a variety of investment assets - of course some years will achieve better returns than other years and some years will lose value..

Since we were talking in the bitcoin sphere, I used the higher rate of 5%.  I was NOT strictly assuming that BTC would earn interest and I was NOT necessarily crossing any kind of bridge to talk about whether or how to secure the funds by diversifying them.  But, since we are in the bitcoin sphere, I was using the higher rate of 5% in part based on higher expectations of BTC appreciation.

In a traditional retirement investment portfolio, interest from such could be achieved through a diversified investment portfolio combined with a variety of stocks, bonds, index funds and precious metals (and even property investments or funds) - usually very little would be put into any kind of savings account b/c the anticipated returns are so low.

In this case, the interest from such principle amount ($5 to 10 million) could ALSO come by assuming a 5% per year appreciation in the value of bitcoins - of course if a person was wanting to rely on a steady 5% withdrawal rate without eating into the principle, then that person may want to diversify the fund in order that all the eggs are NOT in one basket (the bitcoin basket).  On the other hand, sometimes people become fairly bullish and optimistic about a certain asset class and fail to hedge their bets accordingly.. which may or may NOT be o.k. with bitcoin (each of us will likely have differing risk tolerances).

Hopefully, that explains a little better some of my assumptions and presumptions.. . 

I think that there is a chance that Bitcoin could be worth $1 million in 30 years - and that is about a $20 trillion market cap.  Actually, the odds may be greater than one in a million... it could be as great as 1 in 10..... I really don't know, but I would put the odds at close to 1 in a million that BTC could reach $1million in 5-6 years.. that seems way too dreamy for me, and I am NOT going to take those kinds of chances...   Others may NOT mind betting differently, and some of that may have to do with age or with other factors including already acquired assets and risk tolerance.

not in the Bitcoin world it won't.  No one will pay you interest on Bitcoins.  And you'd be stupid to
give control of your coins to others regardless.

We better save this post, just in case.  Cbeast is going to want to receive his fleet of 10 leer jets.. .whatever is that model?

I agree that Azguard seems to NOT have thought through his plan very well, but he still has time to adjust, hopefully (unless he is nearing his 100BTC holdings amount). 

That's a good point!!!   I was pulling the number out of my ass somewhat regarding how many new millionaires and billionaires would result by giving a rough estimate. 

Of course we are going to have gradations of such wealth transfer(s), and maybe in the end, no one would really notice too much b/c some of the wealth would be transferred to new groups; however, some of the wealth would be kept with the wealthy and by the wealthy to move from one kind of wealth to another kind of wealth. 

At this time, it seems that quite a few of the already wealthy are beginning to get into bitcoin in order to prevent too much wealth being transferred to a bunch of snot-nosed tech geeks.... and some of this occurs during the consolidation periods and the pushing the price down and the spreading of the FUD in order to discourage some weaker hands and to buy up some of the BTC at lower prices.

Maybe you are a little more optimistic than me?   but I still understand the difference between price of a bitcoin and market cap, and I totally agree that it is possible that BTC could reach $10 million per BTC at some point... BTW, that plane in the picture is priced at somewhere between $10 and $20 million, and that is a fricking lot of money... $1million per bitcoin would be about a $16 trillion market cap, and $10 million per bitcoin would be a $160 trillion market cap...   and that is a big-ass market cap.. .NOT impossible to achieve, but quite an aspiration.

Either $1 million or $10 million per bitcoin would signify that bitcoin has taken over a fairly large portion of the store of value and/or money transmittal mechanisms.... NOT impossible to achieve, but pretty dreamy vision of the destiny of BTC in the 5-6 year time-frame that we have been using in this thread...

Now, in 20 to 30 years, more likely that BTC could achieve $1million or $10million per BTC, but still quite dreamy in my opinion - even though more likely than the 5-6 year time frame.  I would be quite amazed if BTC reaches $50K per BTC by 2020... that would be an $800 billion market cap...   $800 billion is much more in the realm of possibilities, and may even be possible in the next couple of years... but I have my doubts that BTC is going to move to an $800 billion or higher market cap without some considerable volatility and fight back from the various "powers that be."

I would NOT bank on that within the next 30 years... You need a better back-up plan b/c that seems to be a 1 in a million chance, which is NOT a healthy way to live, IMHBO.

20-30$ mil is way too much. Most people wouldn't be able to handle that!

OK>.. NOW you are getting a little wishy washy.  Which scenario are you predicting the BIG grand one or the CRASH one?  Can't we have some kind of middle-ground and reasonable prediction?  It is the uneasy feeling that i get when I hear people predicting that BTC is all or nothing... that is ridiculous in my thinking b/c there is quite a bit in the middle that seems just as probable as the all or nothing predictions.

But really, $20-30 million?  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such.