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Topic: How to predict crash? (Read 5606 times)

legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1011
November 15, 2013, 12:43:43 PM
#68
How to predict crash in bitcoin price or any bubble in general? It's not all random and some guys seem to guess right when that happen. Any tips or insights?
If you could predict it, so could the majority, so they'd get out in time and sell before the crash. Which would actually make the crash happen earlier. Which, if predicted, would recursively cause the crash to occur even earlier. And so- OMG, that means it's about to crash!! SELL SELL Grin

One can only predict if it will happen, not when.

full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
November 15, 2013, 11:28:49 AM
#66
Nobody here can answer this question.

This guy, Didier Sornette, can, and has proven it:
http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis.html

Probably related to Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) crash prediction:
http://www2.math.su.se/matstat/reports/serieb/2009/rep7/report.pdf

I'm working on my prediction, trying to use LPPL applied to Bitcoin data. Will post when I have results!
newbie
Activity: 49
Merit: 0
October 24, 2013, 08:48:23 AM
#65
easy - use a crystal ball.  Wink

Crystal ball? What is this nonsense?

Just ask the all-knowing one.

It says that the price will go to $240 before diving to $40. Remember, this is what it said. Take it as a mountain of salt.

For it to hit $40 the NSA would have to come out and says they are going to focus all their resources on destroying Bitcoin.

That gives me an idea on how to get cheap coins, if i can fake some news articles.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
October 24, 2013, 08:12:26 AM
#64
I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Smiley

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack Wink

if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort.

and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc...


This is what I wanted to hear. I was trying to daytrade but it consume so much time and profit zero. How have you learned that? Could you please give me some advices?

Not sure I can give any good advice other then just everday adjust your order to 30% under market price before you go to sleep...  one day you win the lottery... for example look at the night sr was taken down (it was night time for me)

Then do not get too greedy, I usually am happy with 50%, but definitely at 100% you should take out your original buy amount.

Also I just noticed that the all time high was actually much higher on btchina, it was something like 300.  Since they lead the rally, I need to figure out what the fibonacci retracements would be for them.


How do you mean being happy with 50% or 100%? So you buy it 30% cheaper and sell back when you earn 150% to 200% of originial amount?
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1010
he who has the gold makes the rules
October 23, 2013, 02:35:45 PM
#63
I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Smiley

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack Wink

if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort.

and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc...


This is what I wanted to hear. I was trying to daytrade but it consume so much time and profit zero. How have you learned that? Could you please give me some advices?

Not sure I can give any good advice other then just everday adjust your order to 30% under market price before you go to sleep...  one day you win the lottery... for example look at the night sr was taken down (it was night time for me)

Then do not get too greedy, I usually am happy with 50%, but definitely at 100% you should take out your original buy amount.

Also I just noticed that the all time high was actually much higher on btchina, it was something like 300.  Since they lead the rally, I need to figure out what the fibonacci retracements would be for them.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
October 23, 2013, 10:56:24 AM
#62
I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Smiley

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack Wink

if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort.

and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc...


This is what I wanted to hear. I was trying to daytrade but it consume so much time and profit zero. How have you learned that? Could you please give me some advices?
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1010
he who has the gold makes the rules
October 23, 2013, 10:25:10 AM
#61
I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Smiley

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

when i do this, i occasionally get a catch (it is like every few months during reversals and random flash crashes, sometimes i bid too low or think it will fall lower than it does but i rather be safe, and i am up a lot...), and then i can sometimes double my money and make a stack Wink

if i even get tempted to day trade i make like way lower returns with a lot more effort.

and as i said i don't have regular income as a student and i don't want to worry about btc crashing 80% while i am writing my thesis and thinking sh-t i need to sell 10% of my btc just to pay my rent, etc...
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Varanida : Fair & Transparent Digital Ecosystem
October 22, 2013, 04:43:51 AM
#60
Nobody here can answer this question.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
October 22, 2013, 04:16:23 AM
#59
I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Smiley

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.
That seems to be the smartest way in my opinion. This isn't going down and stay there for long
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
October 22, 2013, 04:13:52 AM
#58
I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Smiley

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.

I invest all my btcs to ltc some time ago but now ltc's future is as bright as it was. Since then I got some BTCs and holding them. I think best thing to do if you don't know how to predict things.
copper member
Activity: 1380
Merit: 504
THINK IT, BUILD IT, PLAY IT! --- XAYA
October 21, 2013, 10:24:18 PM
#57
I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently Smiley

Is that working out for you?

I'm not that patient. I simply bought/buy and hold. I figure it's only going up, so if I'm down a bit now, it's only temporary, and I'm better off simply locking in the long term value.
cp1
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
Stop using branwallets
October 21, 2013, 08:53:41 PM
#56
It's different from other markets because it's difficult to get in and out.  Buying and selling BTC are not really easy.  Hell, holding BTC isn't even easy.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
October 21, 2013, 06:56:51 PM
#55
600watt,I agree with you. Once we pass the treshold it'll be mainstream and after that we won't even consider it as someting "new". It'll be just part of our lives not realizing it wasn't like this before.

Have you read something from Kevin Kelly? Great author writing about technology/technium. -> kk.org
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
October 21, 2013, 06:18:45 PM
#54
there are also fibonacci retracements...


How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support...  the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

What's the difference between bitcoin market and other markets? Why is that fucked up?

Bitcoin is tiny compared to most markets.  This results in way more volatility and way less liquidity.

most of all, bitcoin is a technology. not a stock. its "rate" may appear like a stock chart but pictures something completly different: adaption.
take mobile phones. cool technology, everyone wants to have it, everyone buys into it and a few company giants get incredibly rich. did anyone shout "ponzi" here? bitcoin is a cool technology. an incredibly fast growing stable network, programmable money, internet cash.... you want to be part of it ? you know what?: it´s free. it´s already there. everyone with internet access can participate within seconds. feel free to take a ride.
and indeed it will be a ride. bitcoin combines money with the net. the web gets "monetized", some bigger chunks of the economy will start to ride/exist online. the internet will become an universal tool to transfer private or public wealth.
since it had to start from small it has a direction/momentum. as a technological infrastructure it has to level up with the old technolgogy it will replace. this up-leveling is the ride you are experiencing and interpreting as stock-chart behaviour.
again, bitcoin is a cool technology, soon everyone might want to have some, just like other every technology. but this time it´s not phones, it´s our money. we will have a lot of fun, be prepared.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 21, 2013, 05:35:24 PM
#53
there are also fibonacci retracements...


How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support...  the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

What's the difference between bitcoin market and other markets? Why is that fucked up?

Bitcoin is tiny compared to most markets.  This results in way more volatility and way less liquidity.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
October 21, 2013, 05:32:28 PM
#52
there are also fibonacci retracements...


How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support...  the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

What's the difference between bitcoin market and other markets? Why is that fucked up?
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Who's there?
October 21, 2013, 04:36:00 PM
#51
i follow a couple of solid analysts and try to get a feel for the market..... and then since i can't crystal ball, i just do dollar costs averaging and set limit orders up and down to take advantage of price movement.
When price fluctuates, dollar cost averaging is a good idea. When price grows, it isn't.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 251
Moon?
October 21, 2013, 04:10:25 PM
#50
but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

I've speculated away quite a few BTC to gain that insight, reading TA and all that shit. If one wants to fuck around daytrading it's better and less expensive to buy some alts and play pump and dump. My BTC are back in paperwallet to stay for good this time.
member
Activity: 113
Merit: 10
October 21, 2013, 04:05:18 PM
#49
You can't really predict a crash, but only guess.
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