How to predict crash? - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

imrer

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Quote from: Elwar on October 20, 2013, 03:43:24 PM

Figure out all of the things that could go wrong with Bitcoin. Then get inside information from all angles of those that could be involved in such a thing and when that bad thing happens, take advantage of the impending price drop.

For Silk Road all you had to do was track down who the guy was that was running it and monitor him and the FBI to see when they arrest him.

There was the bug in the code early in the year, you could have learned the code and found the bug yourself and waited to see if anyone else found it as well. When they did, sell.

You could have found out who Pirate was and figured out when he was going to start defaulting on all of his promises.

When the government stole MtGox's money you could have had a mole in the government to tell you before they did it.

All very simple things that could be done. Find out the next thing that will drop the price and just time it.

So you think only way to predict such thing is only via inside information?

Elwar

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Viva Ut Vivas

Figure out all of the things that could go wrong with Bitcoin. Then get inside information from all angles of those that could be involved in such a thing and when that bad thing happens, take advantage of the impending price drop.

For Silk Road all you had to do was track down who the guy was that was running it and monitor him and the FBI to see when they arrest him.

There was the bug in the code early in the year, you could have learned the code and found the bug yourself and waited to see if anyone else found it as well. When they did, sell.

You could have found out who Pirate was and figured out when he was going to start defaulting on all of his promises.

When the government stole MtGox's money you could have had a mole in the government to tell you before they did it.

All very simple things that could be done. Find out the next thing that will drop the price and just time it.

imrer

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Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: Marbit on October 20, 2013, 12:18:58 PM

i follow a couple of solid analysts and try to get a feel for the market..... and then since i can't crystal ball, i just do dollar costs averaging and set limit orders up and down to take advantage of price movement.

Do you have some sources you could recommend? Have you read some books or which experts are you checking?

imrer

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Quote from: zeroday on October 20, 2013, 08:52:40 AM

Buy as much bitcoins as possible, then wait a year without looking at charts. After that you will get more profit than those who spend sleepless nights "predicting" crashes and bubbles.

P.S. Even those who bought at $266 in April 2013 will have significant profit a year after if they were patient enough and didn't sell with loss.

I was before a one having sleepless nights but I hadn't enough info about investing. I lost some money and still loosing (I have some LTCs). Now I try to know more and decide if it's worth that time. So you are not trading yourself?

imrer

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Quote from: RationalSpeculator on October 20, 2013, 07:48:26 AM

Quote from: imrer on October 20, 2013, 05:10:42 AM

So how do make a well informed guess with probability of happening over 50%?

You are asking the right question.

To make a well informed guess you must be well informed. In order to be well informed you must inform a lot. Reading a lot about bitcoin here, on reddit. Be also well informed about the broader economy, cycles, money, banking, markets, politics, psychology, entrepreneurship, investing, innovation, history etc. Ie: a vivid curiosity for knowledge and understanding is required.

Then your probability calculation will be better informed.

Capital allocation strategy is also crucial. It does not make sense to go all out on a probability of only 60% for a correction. Use the Kelly criterion to scientifically calculate how much you should bet on a certain odd.

And learning from your mistakes. When you end up losing money, was your probability calculation correct looking back on it? And did you scale the capital correctly? Or did greed or fear influence your probability estimation or allocation decision?

After you did all that you may decide it ain't worth it and switch to a simple buy and hold. Wink

Wow, thanks for your post. It looks it takes a lot of time to even have a chance to guess it right. You are simply holding or are you trying to earn something more?

cp1

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Stop using branwallets

Read all the news and apply various trend analysis to all the charts. Then buy or sell based on that. You'll probably be correct half the time. You'll at least generate a lot of fees for the exchanges who will love you.

Marbit

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easy - use a crystal ball. Wink

miffman

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PGP ID: 78B7B84D

I think if you see a huge spike, and it continues, there will probably be a buble

Marbit

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i follow a couple of solid analysts and try to get a feel for the market..... and then since i can't crystal ball, i just do dollar costs averaging and set limit orders up and down to take advantage of price movement.

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

Quote from: zeroday on October 20, 2013, 08:52:40 AM

Buy as much bitcoins as possible, then wait a year without looking at charts. After that you will get more profit than those who spend sleepless nights "predicting" crashes and bubbles.

This is good advice.

I wish I could do that but I am a grad student at the moment and my income is rather sporadic so I place orders at way below market value, and wait patiently

zeroday

donator

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Buy as much bitcoins as possible, then wait a year without looking at charts. After that you will get more profit than those who spend sleepless nights "predicting" crashes and bubbles.

P.S. Even those who bought at $266 in April 2013 will have significant profit a year after if they were patient enough and didn't sell with loss.

Xer0

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°^°

Quote from: fattypig on October 20, 2013, 08:33:53 AM

What is this?

Magic 8-Ball

something like that:

fattypig

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Quote from: prophetx on October 20, 2013, 08:28:53 AM

Proven method

What is this?

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

Proven method

Xer0

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°^°

then return and post here Cheesy

RationalSpeculator

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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: imrer on October 20, 2013, 05:10:42 AM

So how do make a well informed guess with probability of happening over 50%?

You are asking the right question.

To make a well informed guess you must be well informed. In order to be well informed you must inform a lot. Reading a lot about bitcoin here, on reddit. Be also well informed about the broader economy, cycles, money, banking, markets, politics, psychology, entrepreneurship, investing, innovation, history etc. Ie: a vivid curiosity for knowledge and understanding is required.

Then your probability calculation will be better informed.

Capital allocation strategy is also crucial. It does not make sense to go all out on a probability of only 60% for a correction. Use the Kelly criterion to scientifically calculate how much you should bet on a certain odd.

And learning from your mistakes. When you end up losing money, was your probability calculation correct looking back on it? And did you scale the capital correctly? Or did greed or fear influence your probability estimation or allocation decision?

After you did all that you may decide it ain't worth it and switch to a simple buy and hold. Wink

imrer

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Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: wopwop on October 20, 2013, 07:22:25 AM

Use quantum theory

Quantum theory? Cheesy

How?

wopwop

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Use quantum theory

goxed

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Bitcoin / Crypto mining Hardware.

Check the charts on a constant basis.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360zigWeeklyztgSza1gSMAzm1g7za2gEMAzm2g14zxzi1gUOzi2gMACDzi3gRSIzi4gCCIzvzl

Roy Badami

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Quote from: imrer on October 19, 2013, 04:35:57 PM

How to predict crash in bitcoin price or any bubble in general? It's not all random and some guys seem to guess right when that happen. Any tips or insights?

It's a game of poker. It's psychology - you have to guess when everyone else will start selling. But there's no way to know what everyone else is thinking. And since by that point everyone knows it's a bubble, sentiment can change very rapidly - once people think the bubble is bursting, they try to get out with their profits, making the crash a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Judging when a bubble will burst is notoriously difficult, and requires a lot of luck - for each person who guessed right there will be a dozen who guessed wrong.

roy

Topic: How to predict crash? - page 3. (Read 5592 times)