How to predict crash? - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

Quote from: imrer on October 21, 2013, 12:28:19 PM

Quote from: prophetx on October 21, 2013, 02:59:03 AM

there are also fibonacci retracements...

How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

well... some people say that the 61.8 or the 38.2 fib act as resistance/support... the 61.8 fib on bitstamp is at 177 and mtgox is 183, and we are over both of them.

but then again this market is really f--ked up so who knows, we could be pissing into the wind and not know it

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Quote from: TERA on October 21, 2013, 11:33:03 AM

I think the emergence of China has invalidated any form of TA that could be used based on previous charts (if TA could ever even have been used on bitcoin in the first place). Suddenly the market needs to correct to accept the injection of billions of Yuan.

That's certainly a possibility. For example, even if Bitcoin were only used outside of China, we would still expect exponential growth. With the addition of China growth can be faster. Not double exponential, but faster than it was. However, this assumes that China was not already part of the exponential growth so far. Still, Japan for example is not part of it as there is almost no adoption in Japan. If Japan jumps aboard, price could again go up faster. The old exponential curves would have to be slightly updated. Though given how fast the growth is (10x per year), adding in China or Japan is only like fast-forwarding a few weeks perhaps.

imrer

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Quote from: prophetx on October 21, 2013, 02:59:03 AM

there are also fibonacci retracements...

How accurate is that? Have you used them in the past?

TERA

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Quote from: prophetx on October 21, 2013, 11:05:03 AM

Quote from: prophetx on October 21, 2013, 02:59:03 AM

there are also fibonacci retracements...

Someone should double check me, but bitstamp is hovering at almost exactly the 61.8% fib retracement from the earlier year high to the low that followed a couple days later...

I think the emergence of China has invalidated any form of TA that could be used based on previous charts (if TA could ever even have been used on bitcoin in the first place). Suddenly the market needs to correct to accept the injection of billions of Yuan.

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

Quote from: prophetx on October 21, 2013, 02:59:03 AM

there are also fibonacci retracements...

Someone should double check me, but bitstamp is hovering at almost exactly the 61.8% fib retracement from the earlier year high to the low that followed a couple days later...

maursader

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Quote from: Corelianer on October 21, 2013, 09:36:29 AM

If Mtgox gets sized again, then you should expect rapid price drop.

It's just a matter of time when they get sized again....

... but it won't kill Bitcoin...

Perfect time to buy!!

Corelianer

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If Mtgox gets sized again, then you should expect rapid price drop.

It's just a matter of time when they get sized again....

... but it won't kill Bitcoin...

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

there are also fibonacci retracements...

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Quote from: Elwar on October 21, 2013, 02:07:25 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 21, 2013, 01:52:39 AM

When mainstream news pundits are talking about the amazing price growth, that's early warning. So far *crickets*

Mainstream news pundits always include the word "bubble" whenever mentioning Bitcoin and a rise in price.

It'll be hard for them to say that if we clear $300 when they said the same thing six months ago and it's already left that bubble peak in the dust. People will be thinking, "Shit this thing has more lives than a cat! It's not stopping!" Then we could see a *real* bubble.

Elwar

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Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 21, 2013, 01:52:39 AM

When mainstream news pundits are talking about the amazing price growth, that's early warning. So far *crickets*

Mainstream news pundits always include the word "bubble" whenever mentioning Bitcoin and a rise in price.

Zangelbert Bingledack

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When mainstream news pundits are talking about the amazing price growth, that's early warning. So far *crickets*

Elwar

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Quote from: Cluster2k on October 20, 2013, 11:05:52 PM

2) Coupled with the above, this forum becomes full of posts predicting the price doubling by next week and so on. See March/April 2013 posts.

Very true...the worst time to buy is when everyone is excited about how rich they are going to be.

The best time to buy is when even you believe that Bitcoin has failed and people should just get out what they can before it falls to zero.

derpinheimer

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Quote from: Marbit on October 20, 2013, 02:11:04 PM

easy - use a crystal ball. Wink

Crystal ball? What is this nonsense?

Just ask the all-knowing one.

It says that the price will go to $240 before diving to $40. Remember, this is what it said. Take it as a mountain of salt.

Zaih

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I've still got the same coins I had at the beginning of this year. Plus a lot more newly bought ones to accompany them.

Still yet to ever sell a coin & I'm well and truly in profit, just hang tight my friend.

maursader

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Disrupt the banking system!

Hey there, your best bet is to check for patterns, and compare the charts... and monitor them closely every day. Check the news all the time about bitcoin. Little hint though, bitcoin in some way is kind of like gold in the sense that it's defensive. I noticed that when there's fear about the general state of the economy, BTC tends to go up like gold.. and when the economy is doing well, BTC tends to go lower. Just an observation I noticed, not an expert here.

Cluster2k

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How to predict a crash:

1) The price of bitcoin starts going up exponentially over a short period of time. About a week.

2) Coupled with the above, this forum becomes full of posts predicting the price doubling by next week and so on. See March/April 2013 posts.

You then know it's time to sell. Knowing when to buy is the harder part.

imrer

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Quote from: Elwar on October 20, 2013, 06:23:50 PM

Quote from: imrer on October 20, 2013, 05:14:59 PM

Quote from: Elwar on October 20, 2013, 03:43:24 PM

Figure out all of the things that could go wrong with Bitcoin. Then get inside information from all angles of those that could be involved in such a thing and when that bad thing happens, take advantage of the impending price drop.

For Silk Road all you had to do was track down who the guy was that was running it and monitor him and the FBI to see when they arrest him.

There was the bug in the code early in the year, you could have learned the code and found the bug yourself and waited to see if anyone else found it as well. When they did, sell.

You could have found out who Pirate was and figured out when he was going to start defaulting on all of his promises.

When the government stole MtGox's money you could have had a mole in the government to tell you before they did it.

All very simple things that could be done. Find out the next thing that will drop the price and just time it.

So you think only way to predict such thing is only via inside information?

It is a way. All you need is all knowledge of everything and you are all set.

Ok, I'll take it as option. You may or may not obtain this kind of information.

Have you heard about Black swan theory? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Elwar

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Quote from: imrer on October 20, 2013, 05:14:59 PM

Quote from: Elwar on October 20, 2013, 03:43:24 PM

Figure out all of the things that could go wrong with Bitcoin. Then get inside information from all angles of those that could be involved in such a thing and when that bad thing happens, take advantage of the impending price drop.

For Silk Road all you had to do was track down who the guy was that was running it and monitor him and the FBI to see when they arrest him.

There was the bug in the code early in the year, you could have learned the code and found the bug yourself and waited to see if anyone else found it as well. When they did, sell.

You could have found out who Pirate was and figured out when he was going to start defaulting on all of his promises.

When the government stole MtGox's money you could have had a mole in the government to tell you before they did it.

All very simple things that could be done. Find out the next thing that will drop the price and just time it.

So you think only way to predict such thing is only via inside information?

It is a way. All you need is all knowledge of everything and you are all set.

imrer

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Quote from: bigasic on October 20, 2013, 05:34:35 PM

Slowly purchase bitcoin, as much as you can afford (to lose).. If bitcoin takes a dive for some reason, buy as much as you can, it will recover.. I Plan on using my coins for retirement, so the only time Ill sale any is if its my only option. The one thing that i've learned with bitcoin is that with every crash there has been a recovery, and vice-versa.

Don't worry about the small dips and gains, over all, btc is cheap right now. Ill keep buying, although the amounts will be less and less as the bitcoin continues to rise.

I think this is a great advice! I always worry about bitcoin where some crash occur but in some time it's recovered.

bigasic

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Slowly purchase bitcoin, as much as you can afford (to lose).. If bitcoin takes a dive for some reason, buy as much as you can, it will recover.. I Plan on using my coins for retirement, so the only time Ill sale any is if its my only option. The one thing that i've learned with bitcoin is that with every crash there has been a recovery, and vice-versa.

Don't worry about the small dips and gains, over all, btc is cheap right now. Ill keep buying, although the amounts will be less and less as the bitcoin continues to rise.

Topic: How to predict crash? - page 2. (Read 5591 times)