HungerCoins Invest: The odds are ever in your favor. - page 2.

OneEyed

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: iamtheone on September 14, 2012, 06:43:58 AM

Status update:

Amount received: 3,347.57 BTC
Amount paid: 3,359.32 BTC
Number of bets paid: 973

These figures does not include the old receiving address.

It would be interesting to plot the amount lent against the number of confirmations required. Having to wait for 6+ hours makes it much less exciting than it was at the beginning.

iamtheone

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Status update:

Amount received: 3,347.57 BTC
Amount paid: 3,359.32 BTC
Number of bets paid: 973

These figures does not include the old receiving address.

iamtheone

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

I totally agree. I only meant that even you split into smaller bets, you can mitigate it by using electrum and control transaction fees. I was wrong to imply the odds would increase. It will still be the same. I misunderstood the post.)

Fortega

full member

Activity: 155

Merit: 100

bitcoinAdd.net

Yup, better

And you are right: splitting it in smaller values does not increase the avg percentage. It only reduces variance a bit.

OneEyed

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: Fortega on September 12, 2012, 08:43:52 AM

Quote from: OneEyed on September 12, 2012, 07:34:50 AM

Code:

20 * 1/65536 + 2 * 1/4096 + 0.2 * 1/256 + 0.02 * 1/16 + 0.002 * 61167/65536 = 112767/32768000 ~ 0.3441%

Should be

Code:

20 * 1/65536 + 2*15/65536 + 0.2*(256-16)*65536 + ...

You're right:

Code:

20 * 1/65536 + 2 * 15/65536 + 0.2 * 240/65536 + 0.02 * 3840/65536 + 0.002 * 61440/65536 = 3721/819200 ~ 0.4542%

Is it better?

Fortega

full member

Activity: 155

Merit: 100

bitcoinAdd.net

Quote from: OneEyed on September 12, 2012, 07:34:50 AM

Code:

20 * 1/65536 + 2 * 1/4096 + 0.2 * 1/256 + 0.02 * 1/16 + 0.002 * 61167/65536 = 112767/32768000 ~ 0.3441%

Should be

Code:

20 * 1/65536 + 2*15/65536 + 0.2*(256-16)*65536 + ...

OneEyed

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: iamtheone on September 12, 2012, 07:11:06 AM

Quote from: OneEyed on September 12, 2012, 06:31:31 AM

Quote from: Shermo on September 12, 2012, 06:21:48 AM

I guess you could increase your odds of a match by doing lots of smaller transactions, but then the 0.2% interest is pretty much eaten by transaction fees.

Also, it will be 2% of a smaller amount, and won't change anything on the long term.

Actually it will, just a little. Eventually you will hit 3 or 4 digits. It's just a matter of time

What do you mean? Isn't the expected value this one?

Code:

20 * 1/65536 + 2 * 1/4096 + 0.2 * 1/256 + 0.02 * 1/16 + 0.002 * 61167/65536 = 112767/32768000 ~ 0.3441%

How would splitting into smaller amount help at increasing the expected value?

iamtheone

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: OneEyed on September 12, 2012, 06:31:31 AM

Quote from: Shermo on September 12, 2012, 06:21:48 AM

I guess you could increase your odds of a match by doing lots of smaller transactions, but then the 0.2% interest is pretty much eaten by transaction fees.

Also, it will be 2% of a smaller amount, and won't change anything on the long term.

Actually it will, just a little. Eventually you will hit 3 or 4 digits. It's just a matter of time

And you can use electrum and lessen the transaction fees.

Shermo

sr. member

Activity: 272

Merit: 250

Quote from: OneEyed on September 12, 2012, 06:31:31 AM

Also, it will be 2% of a smaller amount, and won't change anything on the long term.

Thats also true, hence why I've just been rolling my small gambling pot through it a couple times a day and eventually hit a match after a few days

miln40

member

Activity: 85

Merit: 10

Ooooh, it's from Hunger Games, this thing with the odds! It was really ringing a bell in my mind =]

OneEyed

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: Shermo on September 12, 2012, 06:21:48 AM

I guess you could increase your odds of a match by doing lots of smaller transactions, but then the 0.2% interest is pretty much eaten by transaction fees.

Also, it will be 2% of a smaller amount, and won't change anything on the long term.

Shermo

sr. member

Activity: 272

Merit: 250

I'd have to check when I get home, but I think around 12 times? So I guess roughly close to the odds 1/16

I guess you could increase your odds of a match by doing lots of smaller transactions, but then the 0.2% interest is pretty much eaten by transaction fees.

iamtheone

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: Shermo on September 11, 2012, 04:28:37 PM

Got my first match, only the last character though so 2% payback

Payment:
https://blockchain.info/tx/a9ec05de08c2748579f98ffb80c34e8527e627191bdb96726b6abdd2cf7e3798

Return:
https://blockchain.info/tx/f65baa369911865d8341f418c13b1fbac737aac99577318cd8e6ada745552a70

Nice

How many times you bet before getting it?

Shermo

sr. member

Activity: 272

Merit: 250

Got my first match, only the last character though so 2% payback

Payment:
https://blockchain.info/tx/a9ec05de08c2748579f98ffb80c34e8527e627191bdb96726b6abdd2cf7e3798

Return:
https://blockchain.info/tx/f65baa369911865d8341f418c13b1fbac737aac99577318cd8e6ada745552a70

OneEyed

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: JoelKatz on September 09, 2012, 11:03:26 PM

Quote from: Zillions on September 09, 2012, 10:25:32 PM

Whoa! Can anyone explain to me what happened in this transacion I only sent 0.25BTC
https://blockchain.info/tx/1188ffc9c821717fcd5dd2e5c71c7e51ea3dd155e0686d11cb566b1b17cb2f90
Looks like HungerCoins just got a spitload of donations.

It looks like your client was cleverly using a transaction it was making anyway as a free opportunity to consolidate a bunch of small inputs it had lying around into a single, larger output, thus reducing the cost of your future transactions.

Armory does that too, although if I remember the code correctly it limits itself to 5 inputs. Since the input addresses are all the same, this does not taint any address more than would have been with the original transaction.

miln40

member

Activity: 85

Merit: 10

Worked fine for my 1 BTC with transactions on time.

Zillions

full member

Activity: 158

Merit: 100

Quote from: dooglus on September 10, 2012, 01:07:21 AM

It also looks like your client paid less than the minimum standard fee. What client did you use?

blockchain.info/wallet

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: JoelKatz on September 09, 2012, 11:03:26 PM

Quote from: Zillions on September 09, 2012, 10:25:32 PM

Whoa! Can anyone explain to me what happened in this transacion I only sent 0.25BTC
https://blockchain.info/tx/1188ffc9c821717fcd5dd2e5c71c7e51ea3dd155e0686d11cb566b1b17cb2f90
Looks like HungerCoins just got a spitload of donations.

It looks like your client was cleverly using a transaction it was making anyway as a free opportunity to consolidate a bunch of small inputs it had lying around into a single, larger output, thus reducing the cost of your future transactions.

It also looks like your client paid less than the minimum standard fee. What client did you use?

JoelKatz

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1012

Democracy is vulnerable to a 51% attack.

Quote from: Zillions on September 09, 2012, 10:25:32 PM

Whoa! Can anyone explain to me what happened in this transacion I only sent 0.25BTC
https://blockchain.info/tx/1188ffc9c821717fcd5dd2e5c71c7e51ea3dd155e0686d11cb566b1b17cb2f90
Looks like HungerCoins just got a spitload of donations.

It looks like your client was cleverly using a transaction it was making anyway as a free opportunity to consolidate a bunch of small inputs it had lying around into a single, larger output, thus reducing the cost of your future transactions.

Zillions

full member

Activity: 158

Merit: 100

Whoa! Can anyone explain to me what happened in this transacion I only sent 0.25BTC
https://blockchain.info/tx/1188ffc9c821717fcd5dd2e5c71c7e51ea3dd155e0686d11cb566b1b17cb2f90
Looks like HungerCoins just got a spitload of donations.

Topic: HungerCoins Invest: The odds are ever in your favor. - page 2. (Read 14604 times)