- So only the recipient has internet access in your example: he doesnt want to hand you cash until he sees the private key you are handing over actually has money in it. So he can scan it, hand it back and say it was already empty and runs away. Well he just stole the coins.
By the same token, you could hand him a $20 bill, and he could put it in the register, close the drawer, and then claim it was a $10, or that you gave him nothing at all. Your word against his. It's bad for business. At least where I shop.
Lets pretend for a minute none of that matters, say casascius physical coins have a hidden private key under a hologram... Well if casascius wants to make any profit at all he has to sell them for more than they are worth. This means that if it is at all possible to make a fake, that costs less than it is worth, the market WILL get flooded with fakes.
That could actually happen, but so far it has not. It's just as possible to make real physical bitcoins and make a profit. At DefCon, I walked around wearing a T-shirt that says "I SELL PHYSICAL BITCOINS", and was charging $15 cash for 1BTC coins worth under $9 at MtGox, selling to anyone who'd stop me in the halls. What's better, the $6 I could make consistently by marking up the coin, or the $9 I could scam people for until I was shut down? Meat may be tasty but you don't slaughter a cash cow.
Now there is one scenario that may work: if it costs MORE to produce a physical bitcoin representation than it is worth. In that case you wouldn't want to make a fake that costs more than its worth. But why on earth would anyone do such a thing? They can not make profit and lose money doing it?
The economics of producing holograms are such that it's a big investment to get the holographic master made. On the flip side, if you start scamming people, you'll be left with a bunch of coin materials you can't move because people have caught on to your scam and stopped buying.
In the end, you're right: somebody enterprising could put their efforts into counterfeiting my coins and it would be disappointing. But so far that hasn't happened, and they continue to be a great gift and promotional tool for Bitcoin.