I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? - page 3.

jiangchun

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Quote from: payb.tc on July 20, 2012, 09:12:23 PM

Quote from: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 08:59:36 PM

Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK.

I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat.

now you can see why i feel like a total smart ass staying 30 BTC ahead forever Cheesy

+1

Invictus

full member

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Quote from: CashGamer on January 06, 2013, 08:55:56 PM

no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!

You just take the risk to win your first bet, after that you can't lose (if you're not crazy) and you can gamble your way up.

I won my first 7 bets and got from 7 to like 25. And after that to 360.

LTC555

newbie

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Quote from: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 03:38:41 PM

Quote from: ildubbioso on July 20, 2012, 03:35:12 PM

Quote from: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 03:30:06 PM

If that's true, then how did I get 100BTC? I still can't get my head around that. Shocked

And how much have you spent?

I started with 30 BTC. I made it to 100 BTC without going into the red.

You are one lucky duck.... buy a lottery ticket soon lol

SouthernComfort

newbie

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Quote from: CashGamer on January 06, 2013, 08:55:56 PM

no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!

+1

CashGamer

newbie

Activity: 9

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no betting strategy can ever turn a wager with a negative expected value into one with a positive expected value

someone that claims to have an edge using any kind of martingale strategy is foolishly mistaking short term results for long term results

enjoy your winnings, and realize that they are not sustainable!

SouthernComfort

newbie

Activity: 28

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I just lost 8$ thanks a lot Cry

kokojie

legendary

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Merit: 1003

Quote from: barbarousrelic on January 06, 2013, 12:40:54 PM

The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.

i.e. if you play Martingale starting with 1 BTC on the 50% game and you're prepared to keep doubling at losses up to 64 BTC, you might as well keep betting 64 BTC on the 97.6% odds game. (not exactly sure of the numbers but it's equal at some point.)

Not really, my martingale strategy is calculated to have 1 catastrophic loss in about 89000 rounds played, so far I have been lucky and about +200 BTC.

The 97.6% odd game is what, 1 catastrophic loss in about 50 rounds? that's not acceptable to me. Also my martingale strategy actually uses the 24% odd game, instead of the 50%.

I think the key with martingale is take your initial small winnings, and walk away.

dooglus

legendary

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Quote from: barbarousrelic on January 06, 2013, 12:40:54 PM

The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.

That's interesting.

I looked into this, and found a surprising result:

If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5":

Code:

>>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536
60012.49314412828

That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x. Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher:

Code:

win on turn 1 : bet = 18.34444122, spent = 18.34494122, win = 146.76222078, lose = 0.09122220, back = 0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn 2 : bet = 20.95186542, spent = 39.29730664, win = 167.62263649, lose = 0.10425932, back = 0.09122220, profit = 128.41655205 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn 3 : bet = 23.92990113, spent = 63.22770777, win = 191.44808952, lose = 0.11914950, back = 0.19548152, profit = 128.41586327 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn 4 : bet = 27.33122595, spent = 90.55943371, win = 218.66002143, lose = 0.13615612, back = 0.31463102, profit = 128.41521874 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn 5 : bet = 31.21600495, spent = 121.77593866, win = 249.73977624, lose = 0.15558002, back = 0.45078714, profit = 128.41462472 (52.155% to lose all)
win on turn 6 : bet = 35.65295485, spent = 157.42939351, win = 285.23711477, lose = 0.17776477, back = 0.60636716, profit = 128.41408842 (45.789% to lose all)
win on turn 7 : bet = 40.72055959, spent = 198.15045311, win = 325.77993920, lose = 0.20310279, back = 0.78413193, profit = 128.41361802 (40.199% to lose all)
win on turn 8 : bet = 46.50845857, spent = 244.65941167, win = 372.08539985, lose = 0.23204229, back = 0.98723472, profit = 128.41322290 (35.292% to lose all)
win on turn 9 : bet = 53.11903225, spent = 297.77894393, win = 424.97258068, lose = 0.26509516, back = 1.21927701, profit = 128.41291376 (30.984% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet = 60.66921318, spent = 358.44865710, win = 485.37698775, lose = 0.30284606, back = 1.48437217, profit = 128.41270282 (27.202% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet = 69.29255432, spent = 427.74171142, win = 554.36709722, lose = 0.34596277, back = 1.78721823, profit = 128.41260403 (23.881% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet = 79.14159147, spent = 506.88380289, win = 633.16325523, lose = 0.39520795, back = 2.13318100, profit = 128.41263334 (20.966% to lose all)
win on turn 13 : bet = 90.39054140, spent = 597.27484429, win = 723.15926428, lose = 0.45145270, back = 2.52838895, profit = 128.41280894 (18.407% to lose all)
win on turn 14 : bet = 103.23838355, spent = 700.51372784, win = 825.94703784, lose = 0.51569191, back = 2.97984165, profit = 128.41315165 (16.160% to lose all)
win on turn 15 : bet = 117.91237969, spent = 818.42660753, win = 943.34475917, lose = 0.58906189, back = 3.49553356, profit = 128.41368520 (14.187% to lose all)
win on turn 16 : bet = 134.67209391, spent = 953.09920144, win = 1077.42904272, lose = 0.67286046, back = 4.08459545, profit = 128.41443673 (12.455% to lose all)
win on turn 17 : bet = 153.81398395, spent = 1106.91368539, win = 1230.57166670, lose = 0.76856991, back = 4.75745591, profit = 128.41543722 (10.935% to lose all)
win on turn 18 : bet = 175.67664520, spent = 1282.59083059, win = 1405.48152682, lose = 0.87788322, back = 5.52602582, profit = 128.41672205 ( 9.600% to lose all)
win on turn 19 : bet = 200.64679995, spent = 1483.23813054, win = 1605.25255315, lose = 1.00273399, back = 6.40390904, profit = 128.41833165 ( 8.428% to lose all)

I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC. That's a payout of 1.0866x:

Code:

>>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1
1.0865797129981056

How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that).

tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win. Is there a flaw in my reasoning here?

furrycoat

newbie

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If you did win that much you were truly lucky. I advise everyone to stay away from gambling you will lose your money.

barbarousrelic

hero member

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The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.

i.e. if you play Martingale starting with 1 BTC on the 50% game and you're prepared to keep doubling at losses up to 64 BTC, you might as well keep betting 64 BTC on the 97.6% odds game. (not exactly sure of the numbers but it's equal at some point.)

kokojie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1003

Quote from: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 03:14:58 PM

I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed.

This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much?

That's completely normal, I've made over 200 BTC on SDice with my martingale strategy. That's exactly what martingale will do for you, it allow you to win small winnings over time, then at some point, you will meet one gigantic loss. How well martingale works depends on the max bet limit and your own bank roll. In theory, if you had a huge bankroll, and the casino allows extremely large max bet, it's unlikely for you to lose even in millions of rounds of play. But eventually, you will lose, the probability guarantees it.

marketersales

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Quote from: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 03:14:58 PM

I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed.

This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much?

Wow i can't believe this?? :/

Invictus

full member

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Merit: 100

I made over 300 BTC, starting with 7.

I hope his family doesn't starve this week. Tongue

dooglus

legendary

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Quote from: JordanL on October 30, 2012, 02:49:04 PM

I've had the worst luck with Satoshi dice. Maybe I should try again.

Satoshi Dice has been having terrible luck for the last 10 days or so. Either that or someone has figured out how to cheat.

I post graphs of their winnings over time. Here's todays:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1307533

JordanL

donator

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I've had the worst luck with Satoshi dice. Maybe I should try again.

dooglus

legendary

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Quote from: TenDrawBTC on October 30, 2012, 09:47:25 AM

Lets say you had BTC1M and you bet the minimum to start with and use the martingale strategy could you beat the house!?

No. The problem is that each time you win, you win the minimum amount, but the one time you lose, you lose everything. The millions of min bets you win aren't quite enough to make up for the one huge loss when you lose 20 times in a row and get wiped out.

The bottom line is that there is no way to profit in the long run from betting on a game which always has a negative expectation no matter how you vary your bet size.

The only reason people can make a living playing blackjack is that some of the time it has a positive expectation (which you can determine by counting cards), and those are the times to bet big. With SD, the expectation is always negative, so betting big at some times won't help you.

arglassatada

newbie

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and now a word from our sponsor... "I won a bunch of coins on satoshi dice!"

but math is math.

In other news, I'm raffling away about 100BTC worth of equipment. You'll need to register on butterflylabs.com forum and vote for me starting tomorrow at 5pm PST for the raffle to take place. It is contingent on my winning a BFL contest.

Its free to enter the raffle, just leave a comment on my youtube contest entry. Keep it civil please.

here's my contest entry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=On0r-7XGf0U

No risk and a pretty decent chance at winning a bunch of GPU mining hardware! Good Luck.

pant

newbie

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I've only lost some 10 BTC on satoshi, too.

The biggest win was 4 BTC at time.

TenDrawBTC

sr. member

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Quote from: Akka on October 30, 2012, 10:35:07 AM

TenDrawBTC, I once wrote a simulator for a roulette table, and let it simulate all kind of random strategies by just changing betting odds/wins and behavior variables.

Yours is in there to.

I left it running for a few month, simulating billions of turns.

That is really interesting. Yep the martingale strategy is a tricky one because you feel like you are invincible.

Akka

legendary

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TenDrawBTC, I once wrote a simulator for a roulette table, and let it simulate all kind of random strategies by just changing betting odds/wins and behavior variables.

Yours is in there to.

I left it running for a few month, simulating billions of turns.

All I can say is: "The house always wins.

Although the probability of winning in any gambling game 1.000.000 with a starting bet of 10 is still higher than with a 10$ lotto ticket. So there must be people which have something that feels like an endless winning streak and think their strategy works. (By the way Lotto has such a high House edge that nobody would play it in a casino. Don't play lotto!)

Topic: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? - page 3. (Read 15380 times)