I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? - page 4.

Fjordbit

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

firstbits.com/1kznfw

Quote from: TenDrawBTC on October 30, 2012, 09:47:25 AM

So basically you have 18 attempts of an improved odds version of rock, paper, scissors of which you are playing with a computer. Although chance has no mercy and has nothing to do with the last attempt, If you always start betting the absolute minimum and not be greedy even if you are loaded with BTC your odds of always winning here are surely very probable.

They are probable, In fact, the chance of coming out with a win is 99.967%. The problem is that you have to put BTC262,144 on the line, so the .033% of the time you do lose will completely wipe out any past winnings and could potentially bankrupt you.

TenDrawBTC

sr. member

Activity: 273

Merit: 250

Ok so lets say you have BTC131.072 and you only bet 0.001 to start with and double it each time... Oh and lets say this is on a 36% game.

0.001
0.002
0.004
0.008
0.016
0.032
0.064
0.128
0.256
0.512
1.024
2.048
4.096
8.192
16.384
32.768
65.536
131.072

So basically you have 18 attempts of an improved odds version of rock, paper, scissors of which you are playing with a computer. Although chance has no mercy and has nothing to do with the last attempt, If you always start betting the absolute minimum and not be greedy even if you are loaded with BTC your odds of always winning here are surely very probable.

So now lets say you have BTC8388.608 and you start with the absolute minumum bet again BTC0.001 that's 24 attempts of winning on the odds of 36% each time, that's a 12k profit, seems great if you quit when you are ahead
Can anyone elaborate on this layman theory... Lets say you had BTC1M and you bet the minimum to start with and use the martingale strategy could you beat the house!?

jermwerty

sr. member

Activity: 472

Merit: 250

I know BTC is for the 'bettin man (& risk takers) for sure but I really admit I am surprised the DICE are still rockin it... Too risky for my bood, goodluck all!

nrb

newbie

Activity: 15

Merit: 0

Given the following parameters:

Starting Bankroll: 30BTC
Starting Bet: 3 BTC
Bet Increase Factor: 2
Game: "lessthan 32768"

Running some simulations came to approximately a 13% chance of ending with 150 BTC. In which case it's probably better to just play "lessthan 12000" which gives you a 18.3105% at 5.335x your money.

zoinky

hero member

Activity: 811

Merit: 1000

Web Developer

Quote from: evoorhees on July 20, 2012, 04:35:39 PM

Oh also, the best way to play SatoshiDice is using an ewallet account from Blockchain.info/wallet. Inside the wallet, click on the Send Money tab, then on the left side you'll see a SatoshiDice link. The transactions are usually processed faster through this method, and Blockchain.info made a really nice interface IMO.

I've looked at this tab but I am curious if the funds that are used to play the game are randomly chosen from your addresses? I wouldn't want funds from my Savings address to be pulled to play, can your tell blockchain.info which address you'd like to use? I don't see it, atleast without committing to betting.

drakahn

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Its amazing how close to "expected" my latest satoshi dice bot is doing, if perfect i would be 140% up in 12000 bets, but with a few loss streaks longer than is worth chasing i am only 20% up, if i had of stopped at the last 'loss' i would be 2% down... of course, the earlier versions of it are all 100% down

Meddol

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Lucky bastard haha

hotdealdave

jr. member

Activity: 61

Merit: 1

I don't think the OP was shilling, or he wouldn't have stated that he lost the coins later in the thread. On a side note, I played SD myself once, and thought it was really fun and slick. I never got into the black, but made a few rolls and ended up with less than a 1BTC loss. I may try it again.

Bitobsessed

sr. member

Activity: 291

Merit: 250

Quote from: evoorhees on July 20, 2012, 04:35:39 PM

Oh also, the best way to play SatoshiDice is using an ewallet account from Blockchain.info/wallet. Inside the wallet, click on the Send Money tab, then on the left side you'll see a SatoshiDice link. The transactions are usually processed faster through this method, and Blockchain.info made a really nice interface IMO.

Blockchain.info also has an Android app for a wallet. Now I play SD all the time! Even at work.

finkleshnorts

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Starfish BCB

UnitClick

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

Well, after a couple week break from Satoshi dice, I decided to buy another 30 BTC and try it again. I don't know if it's good luck or a good strategy, but after betting many, much smaller sums I ended up making 58 BTC.

I am determined not to lose this. I beat the odds twice and I'm not going to be a poor gambler and try to double or triple it like I did last time. I'm more informed about the odds of satoshi dice and know that the odds will get even worse if I put these coins back into the system. So, where do you guys think I should put these coins? I've been thinking of putting it all into either pirate bonds or the gamma bitcoin fund, but don't know if there's a better option out there.

Is there something like Satoshi dice where you can instantly or near instantly speculate on the bitcoin market? I want to get out of playing with chances and start making informed bets where skill matters.

RodeoX

legendary

Activity: 3066

Merit: 1147

The revolution will be monetized!

The Martingale strategy has worked well for me in blackjack. Though not as profitable as hard work.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: bcbuck on August 09, 2012, 08:40:43 AM

Just wondering - if their blackjack was beatable - did you clean them out? If not....why not? Grin

I didn't clean them out, because I liked the site and didn't want it to fail.

I played for the minimum stakes of 10c-$5 rather than the bigger tables, and ended up only winning about $300. I taught my girlfriend how to count too, and she won about the same amount. That wasn't all on blackjack; some of it was on the weekend tournaments which were also "beatable" in a way - there was a $20 or so prize for winning the most each weekend which made some high stake 50-50 roulette bets really worth playing.

Then the owner of the site banned us both, and all my friends. He started making crazy accusations, like that my girlfriend didn't exist even though he had spoken to us both on Skype already. It was funny because he knew we were counting cards all along, and kept telling us we were doing it wrong. I'm still not clear why we were banned. The owner has admitted that neither of us broke the site's terms and conditions. But I reported a lot of bugs, and I think the owner took it personally, rather than seeing it as my attempt to help him fix his site.

I kind of wish now that I had cleaned them out, but at the time I thought the owner was a decent guy and wanted to see his business really take off. Now, not so much.

bcbuck

newbie

Activity: 9

Merit: 0

dooglus,

Just wondering - if their blackjack was beatable - did you clean them out? If not....why not? Grin

Cheers

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: burtan on August 02, 2012, 12:48:29 AM

The only Casino game that I know of that this is possible to achieve (without cheating of course) is Black Jack (counting cards), but now days with continuous shuffle this is no longer possible.

Take a look at strikesapphire.com. Their blackjack was very beatable until recently (dealing 65% to 75% of the way through 6 decks before shuffling and allowing a spread from $0.10 to $5.00) and probably still is, but to a much lesser degree.

burtan

newbie

Activity: 24

Merit: 0

The simple fact is that if the house has an edge no betting strategy will ever change that unless your bank is bigger than their bank (Good luck with that). The only way to ever win in the long run is to have the edge in your favour. The only Casino game that I know of that this is possible to achieve (without cheating of course) is Black Jack (counting cards), but now days with continuous shuffle this is no longer possible. If you want to gamble and make money find a skill based game where you control the edge and EV (Poker, Gin, Sports etc..) Hard work and good maths is unfortunately the only way to ever profit in the long run

drakahn

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Quote from: dooglus on August 01, 2012, 05:45:17 PM

Quote from: stoppots on August 01, 2012, 02:58:11 AM

Appears satoshidice has been unresponsive to several unpaid winning bets going on 4 days now. Is that suspicious?

It's worrying if nothing else.

Seems to have caught up (for me at least) now, the tubes just needed some rattling

carlos_y

newbie

Activity: 15

Merit: 0

you are the one lucky bastard Grin

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: stoppots on August 01, 2012, 02:58:11 AM

Appears satoshidice has been unresponsive to several unpaid winning bets going on 4 days now. Is that suspicious?

It's worrying if nothing else.

purpleplastic

newbie

Activity: 11

Merit: 0

Nice one !

Topic: I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? - page 4. (Read 15380 times)