I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal? - page 5.

stoppots

sr. member

Activity: 271

Merit: 250

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 09:46:40 PM

Quote from: payb.tc on July 31, 2012, 07:39:35 PM

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 07:01:15 PM

Quote from: dooglus on July 31, 2012, 11:00:47 AM

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 10:20:19 AM

shill much?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/unitclick-57646

What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious?

Wouldn't call it suspicious. His 7 post are in the thread he created titled,

"I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?"

Is this normal?

My point being its shilling.

according to mtgoxlive + google, 100 btc is exactly 11802.8 shillings.

What's your point? His only 11802.8 shillings are now gone. Is that suspicious?

Appears satoshidice has been unresponsive to several unpaid winning bets going on 4 days now. Is that suspicious?

burtan

newbie

Activity: 24

Merit: 0

Quote from: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 03:14:58 PM

I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed.

This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much?

The Martingale betting system can only work if you have an infinite bankroll. Even if you are playing a game that is even 50/50 odds. Over the long run the Martingale betting system sill only leaves your odds at 50%, because the odds of flipping a coin say 7x heads is 128 to 1 and you have to risk 128x your original bet on the 7th flip. At a game that is less than 50/50 (which allcasino table/slot games are) the odds get even worse.

stoppots

sr. member

Activity: 271

Merit: 250

Quote from: payb.tc on July 31, 2012, 07:39:35 PM

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 07:01:15 PM

Quote from: dooglus on July 31, 2012, 11:00:47 AM

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 10:20:19 AM

shill much?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/unitclick-57646

What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious?

Wouldn't call it suspicious. His 7 post are in the thread he created titled,

"I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?"

Is this normal?

My point being its shilling.

according to mtgoxlive + google, 100 btc is exactly 11802.8 shillings.

What's your point? His only 11802.8 shillings are now gone. Is that suspicious?

payb.tc

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 07:01:15 PM

Quote from: dooglus on July 31, 2012, 11:00:47 AM

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 10:20:19 AM

shill much?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/unitclick-57646

What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious?

Wouldn't call it suspicious. His 7 post are in the thread he created titled,

"I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?"

Is this normal?

My point being its shilling.

according to mtgoxlive + google, 100 btc is exactly 11802.8 shillings.

Scott J

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1000

Quote from: TingCoin on July 27, 2012, 11:16:19 AM

Me and my bud played some Satoshi with 1.99 coin, aiming for 6. We were doing a variation of all bets, mainly the 25% 30 odd % and 50%. Had a lot of fun, got to 4.6 then back to 2.08 and stopped.

I'm an online poker player whose made £700 from a bit of casual and often play over the course of the year. Been a poker player for a very long time - and the key to winning is self control. When I have a big loss, I won't play for up to a week till I feel confident again to avoid playing on tilt.

I'm definitely going to play Satoshi again in the future when I'm in the mood. I know it favors the house but who cares? Bit of fun init

.

Are their any good online poker sites which use BTC, and have proper algorithms and a large playerbase? It's always a bitch having to wait 6 days to pull my money out - and BTC is near instant! Never really thought of searching for some poker bitcoin sites...

I have been playing on SealsWithClubs.eu recently; every Sunday they have a 60 BTC guarantee tournament.

I bubbled last time Angry

stoppots

sr. member

Activity: 271

Merit: 250

Quote from: dooglus on July 31, 2012, 11:00:47 AM

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 10:20:19 AM

shill much?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/unitclick-57646

What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious?

Wouldn't call it suspicious. His 7 post are in the thread he created titled,

"I made 100BTC with Satoshi's dice. Is this normal?"

Is this normal?

My point being its shilling.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: stoppots on July 31, 2012, 10:20:19 AM

shill much?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/unitclick-57646

What's your point? His only 7 posts are on this thread. Is that suspicious?

stoppots

sr. member

Activity: 271

Merit: 250

Quote from: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 03:14:58 PM

I bought my first 30 BTC the other day, and decided to try my hand at Satoshi's dice on the 50% slot. Kept betting 3BTC, if I lost I bet 6 BTC, and if I lost that then I bet 12BTC. If I won, I kept betting 3BTC. I believe this is called the martingale strategy. In the last 3 days and over 600 transactions, I've made over 100 BTC. I'm amazed.

This seems incredibly easy and too good to be true. What am I missing here? The coins are confirming and all is well, but I can't imagine how this site stays profitable giving away $1000+ to a user. Does everyone usually win this much?

shill much?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/unitclick-57646

SRoulette

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 252

That is an amazing run with a traditional martingale strategy, congratulations.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: VelvetLeaf on July 27, 2012, 10:14:08 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 27, 2012, 01:11:57 PM

It's much much simpler to see why Martingale is a losing strategy when applied to a game in which the house has an edge. When you play a game which in isolation has an EV (expected value) of less than the amount your wagering any permutation of such bets can never magically become a bet with a positive EV. Your merely playing with variance

What about changing bet value ?
I keep winning 4 times in a row with 73% chance, and I have a feeling I will lose on the 5th bet but I read somewhere that changing your bet value isn't good.
So I didn't change it and as expected, I lose.
If I reduce the bet to 25% I will minimize my loss.

If every single bet you can make has a negative EV (cost larger than profit in the long run) how would changing the bet value make it long term profitable? Answer: it cannot. It's just another fallacy.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Deafboy on July 27, 2012, 11:03:19 PM

I've never been into gambling, but after trying the php bot mentioned above (just because I think automating any task increase the coolness factor to over 9000) and winning more than 100% of the original value.. the temptation is so strong!
I'm not sure what's so special about SD... maybe the fast speed ensure the dope of adrenalin every few seconds Tongue

* Almost instant feedback
* Provably fair
* Low house edge

A winning combination.

Deafboy

hero member

Activity: 482

Merit: 502

I've never been into gambling, but after trying the php bot mentioned above (just because I think automating any task increase the coolness factor to over 9000) and winning more than 100% of the original value.. the temptation is so strong!
I'm not sure what's so special about SD... maybe the fast speed ensure the dope of adrenalin every few seconds Tongue

VelvetLeaf

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 27, 2012, 01:11:57 PM

It's much much simpler to see why Martingale is a losing strategy when applied to a game in which the house has an edge. When you play a game which in isolation has an EV (expected value) of less than the amount your wagering any permutation of such bets can never magically become a bet with a positive EV. Your merely playing with variance

What about changing bet value ?
I keep winning 4 times in a row with 73% chance, and I have a feeling I will lose on the 5th bet but I read somewhere that changing your bet value isn't good.
So I didn't change it and as expected, I lose.
If I reduce the bet to 25% I will minimize my loss.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

It's much much simpler to see why Martingale is a losing strategy when applied to a game in which the house has an edge. When you play a game which in isolation has an EV (expected value) of less than the amount your wagering any permutation of such bets can never magically become a bet with a positive EV. Your merely playing with variance

barbarousrelic

hero member

Activity: 675

Merit: 502

I've personally lost 8 or 9 50% bets in a row doing manual Martingale on Satoshidice. Luckily this was when I started at .1 BTC.

The real problem with the Martingale strategy is this: Either you or Satoshidice has a limit. Let's say you start with 1 BTC, then 2, then 4, then 8, etc. You're willing to keep going up to your limit, say 128 BTC is all you have (or all that Satoshidice will let you wager at once).

That means that each round of run-until-you-win-or-bust is essentially wagering that 128 BTC for a possible winning of 1 BTC. (minus house take & tx fees.) So, if you bust at 128 after 8 straight losses, there's a .5^8 or 1 in 256 chance of losing everything, and a 255 in 256 chance of making 0.78% (minus house take and tx fees).

So it's really not any better than betting on one of the high-probability, low-win-ratio games.

TingCoin

hero member

Activity: 720

Merit: 500

Me and my bud played some Satoshi with 1.99 coin, aiming for 6. We were doing a variation of all bets, mainly the 25% 30 odd % and 50%. Had a lot of fun, got to 4.6 then back to 2.08 and stopped.

I'm an online poker player whose made £700 from a bit of casual and often play over the course of the year. Been a poker player for a very long time - and the key to winning is self control. When I have a big loss, I won't play for up to a week till I feel confident again to avoid playing on tilt.

I'm definitely going to play Satoshi again in the future when I'm in the mood. I know it favors the house but who cares? Bit of fun init

.

Are their any good online poker sites which use BTC, and have proper algorithms and a large playerbase? It's always a bitch having to wait 6 days to pull my money out - and BTC is near instant! Never really thought of searching for some poker bitcoin sites...

VelvetLeaf

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: UnitClick on July 20, 2012, 08:59:36 PM

Well, you guys were right. I ended up losing it all in a couple big bets, then I got back up to 30 BTC before losing most of it with the martingale strategy. Now I'm at zero. It's a weird feeling, to go from $0 to making $1000, then back to zero in a few days. Maybe I'll try Satoshi's dice again, but I've learned to quit while on top, since it's incredibly easy to lose massive sums of bitcoins QUICK.

I guess I just answered my original question. This is how the site stays afloat.

Which multiplier that you use ?
50.0000%, 1.957x
73.2422%, 1.33x
79.3457%, 1.235x

I just tried this SatoshiDice and it's damn addictive.
Should've stopped while I'm winning but the addiction is already flowing in my blood Grin

Tried twice, still winning so far with that 73.2422% percentage.
Quit or not, quit or not, Huh

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

That's true. I said it can be problematic (depending on the online wallet).

cst

member

Activity: 110

Merit: 10

The Cosmos doesn't care about you.

Quote from: wachtwoord on July 21, 2012, 03:23:38 PM

Yes it will. With any full client you onw addresses you use to send (they are in your wallet.dat file). It can only be problematic with online wallets where you don't actually have wallet software running yourself.

blockchain.info wallet actually can receive bitcoins from SD, it even has links to dice set up or something like that (haven't used it myself). But since he's asking about official client it doesn't matter that much :p

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Yes it will. With any full client you onw addresses you use to send (they are in your wallet.dat file). It can only be problematic with online wallets where you don't actually have wallet software running yourself.

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