Topic: I want to invest in asicminer (Read 2876 times)

I think there can't be any old AM shares even if the next gen does not come from AM first.
If you want to calculate the share price you could also count 200.000 gh/s with 5 btc/gh (or even more if you look at the sell prices of their devices) and then divide by 400.000 shares. Looks like the real price lies somewhere in between..

FYI, for any interested I am selling shares here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/150-direct-asicminer-shares-3-day-auction-196273

I also could sell a larger volume of shares if there was a big buyer who didn't want to move the market(PM me).

it also excludes hardware sales (increase in ROI) and the fact that a significant amount of hardware has already been paid for.

Just some rough calculation:

If AsicMiner can hold about 10% of marketshare (where marketshare = Total Hashpower of Bitcoin network). At this marketrate, it would mine about 131,400 BTC per year (Total amount of BTC mined by network is 25 BTC every 10 minutes -> 1,314,000 BTC/Year).

So for the next four years, weekly dividend would be around 0.00631731 BTC/share or 0,3285 BTC/year/share ( = 131,400 BTC/year / 400,000 shares).

At the current rate of 1.2 BTC per share, this would mean a yearly ROI of 27%. This calculation does not include the amount reserved by AsicMiner to reïnvest in new hardware etc, so ROI would probably be less and also greatly dependent on marketshare.

No bro, BFL hash rate is in zero hashes per second, Or imaginary GHps

Sorry, got AM's hash rate mixed up with BFL's!

That amount is beyond 50% at least, and ASICMINER's management would be stupid to get anywhere close to 50%.

Still not coping with the fact that the GH days are over? Pretty much the TH days are counted as well.

Yeah, if the ratio between increased hashrate and reward was linear that might be true, but of course it isn't quite. Increased hashrate gets a slightly worse reward as you become a bigger and bigger part of a fixed-reward market. Sort of like the closer you get to the speed of light, it takes an incredible amount of energy to go a tiny bit faster. I presume AM management figured all this out a long time ago and understand it better than I do, but there must be a point beyond which if you are the dominant hasher in the network it's not worth increasing your hash rate, until the competition increases theirs. That's why I presume they've got a lot more up their sleeve than the current 17GHs but they plan to release it at a rate that gives the most efficient return.

I just woke up so don't flame me much about this. I did some napkin calculations yesterday and reached an interesting conclusion. If you consider ASICMINER having 25TH as of yesterdays. Whenever ASICMINER reaches 25*24= 600TH, ASICMINER will have so much hashing power that holding shares in ASICMINER is actually equivalent to buying Avalon ASICS and mining with them! (Without any electricity bill, management hassle, etc)

Great replies everyone! Certainly more to think on. Wonder what would happen to old AM/AM-PT shares once next gen product comes out, lol!

The difference is that by investing in a miner you have a rapidly depreciating piece of hardware that will probably be a doorstop in 12 months. Doesn't make it a bad investment of course, if it pays for itself in 3 months and you make some profit over that.

The shares are effectively a stake in an enterprise which has current mining assets, future mining assets, products to be sold, an R&D budget to develop the next generation of technology, salaries, running costs, etc. If you price all those things out you can work out whether AM is a good investment or not. If friedcat put everything AM has into building out the current-gen tech and mining it until the return is uneconomic the weekly dividends would be way higher but it'd effectively be the same as the first scenario but on a much bigger scale. The weekly dividends would be superb for a while, then great, then OK, then marginal, then it wouldn't be worth it anymore.

AM have to plan how to use all of those assets to maximize the return to the business. To me they appear to clearly understand it's better to deploy the hardware in an orderly fashion, and trade a little bit of long-term profitability for short-term cash flow (e.g., recent blade sales) so they can fund R&D internally.

But in order to invest in AM you need to convince yourself that management understand all this and are rational. Their goal is to increase dividends over time, which takes more work than running a miner.

Verification from friedcat's own mouth regarding deployment: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2013118

Asicminer uses a tiny fraction of the power of your mining rig.  As the difficulty rises, eventually you are going to be priced out of mining.  AM will not, as they are already looking into improving the technology.

You keep mining on that thing, its returns will go down to 0.  Meanwhile, ASICMINER will be growing and also selling off hardware, getting more and more coins.  

Yes, tooting my own horn here but why prices are rising: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1767379

Hmm, so ...

1 share AM-PT costs ~ 1.2 BTC currently and generates 0.007 BTC/week. Since BTC is about $116 USD currently, if you spend $139 USD to buy 1 AM-PT share, you would earn 0.007 BTC/week.

I have a miner consisting of 3x 7970 that generates 1.8 GH/s, which at current difficulty generates 0.09 BTC/day or 0.63 BTC/week. This rig cost me about $1500 USD to put together.

So if we were to compare investments, spending $1500 on a mining rig would net me 0.63 BTC/week.

In comparison, spending the same $1500 USD on AM-PT shares (assuming 1 BTC = $116 USD, and 1.2 BTC buys you 1 AM-PT share), would net you around 11 AM-PT shares, generating 0.077 BTC/week.

Granted I did not account for pending 3% management fee from BTCT.co, nor for costs of electricity for doing your own mining, but wow ... hardly seems worth it to buy shares of AM-PT. Am I missing something?

Historically, yes.  However, that was with ~7.5 TH/s online and no sales.

We are now at > 15TH/s online, ~46 TH/s on hand, 200TH/s on order and paid for, and sales ongoing.  BFL is also "shipping," so there's that too.

So it is anyone's guess what it will be; I believe it is going to rise in the near term.

Dividends Payouts (per Share)

02/28 (IPO)      0.023545
03/06 (IPO)      0.019163
03/13 (IPO)      0.023786
03/20 (IPO)      0.025998
03/24 (IPO)      0.007508
03/27              0.003775
04/03              0.002556
04/10              0.006956
04/17              0.006967
04/24              0.007731
05/01              0.007354

What does 0.6% mean exactly? If I bought 1 AM-PT share @ 1.2 BTC, then weekly I get 0.006 * 1.2 BTC = 0.0072 BTC/week?