Topic: If history repeats itself: 2023 vs 2019 - page 2. (Read 868 times)

As far as I can tell, the adoption in numbers reflected by Bitcoin addresses continues to increase. It's just no reflected in price, as per usual with funamentals. Overall every cycle has been different, especially the recovery years, whether it be sideways for a year or a sharp relief rally followed by a sudden drop. The point of the topic is that at present, price is following 2019 rather than 2015 right now.

Of course if price were to crash back down to $15K, there would be more of an argument for price following 2015 style consolidation for a year, as opposed to a parabolic relief rally. As I've said previously, if we are to take the average of 2015 and 2019 consolidation years, then price would only reach $40K and likely end the year at around current prices based on both fractals combined.

that's my take on this. we may find few similarities in the graphs, however, the situation today is different from few years ago. the adoption itself is different in numbers. big news and other crises that we have experienced after 2019, that's a lot to change the course of the market. maybe, we can refer from its past performance, but it doesn't mean we will rely from it for our future plans. that's actually not very smart to do.

Manipulation is never been new considering that this is evident on other markets which its not really that shocking anymore.I do agree about those changes been mentioned which we could really tell that this is something
that would really be similar in speaking about repeating on the same path or behavior on where prices could eventually go. Yes, they might be sharing up on the same movement or path but there's
no way that we could tell that it would really be precisely just the same on what we are seeing now. Charts could be compared and we could make out some comparison and able to
look those similarities but it would really be just staying up on that point only.

It wont go upto as far as 40k this month, I believe if we refer back to prior lows on the weekly chart each bar in most months of 2022 aligns with a price in the mid 30's.  That sudden appearance of prior volume should be enough to hit the buffers for this particular run up in price action for BTC.
   If anything if we were to move too far past that point it'd halt there and retreat downwards more violently I think.  Better to run in loops of a predictable orbit that doesnt throw off too many people, not too erratic or volatile that it roughs up traders with sudden changes in price like harsh Monday sells etc.

Many thanks OP,  you have made a great effort to create this thread and it is really interesting but regarding the comparison of charts between 2019 and 2023, I completely disagree although they could be similar but only in temporary periods due to market’s condition changes frequently, the numbers of investors as well , whales and crypto traders…etc  . My point of view is the history is impossible to be completely repeated especially when it comes to Bitcoin. From 2019 to 2023 ,  a plenty of different events have happened. It had started with the global economic crisis due to the effect of Covid virus, the price decreased to less than $10k and then we had seen the bull run when Elon musk has invested in crypto and manipulated the whole market.

Generally speaking based on the previous to bear market recoveries of 2015 and 2019, then $40K would be a relatively "fair average" to reach this year, while ending the year around $30K.

If price consolidates sideways for a year like in 2015, then we'd basically be in a range between $30K and $15K, ending the year around $30K. Whereas if price has a strong recovery to the 0.618 retracement like in 2019, the target would be around $50K, before a correction back down to around $30K. Ironically both scenarios leaves price at around $30K by the end of the year, unless something completely different occurs.


I wouldn't say reaching $30K is enough to prove price is doing fine, price needs to break this previous long-term support level between $29K and $32K and at the moment we are merely surviving within it. It still remains more than possible that price gets a strong rejection here and returns to the lows, even if new lows aren't made and it wouldn't be until 2024 that we see $30K level again!

I however think it's more likely to reach $40K or $50K purely as I think the idea of a 2015 style 1 year sideways consolidation is a bit outdated for Bitcoin these days.

That is something I considered as well, I mean think about it we are talking about a situation that is making us profit thanks to going up, and going up alone. So, I wanted to see how the year is looking and how we could increase, I think this type of increase is likely and we will probably see 40k this year.

It is already above 30k and we are not even at summer yet, we have more than half of the year remaining and we are already nearly at double since the start, this should provide a proof that we will be doing fine. A lot of people do not consider this as a big deal, but I find it a big deal, doubling within 4 months means that we should be able to do a lot better for the rest of the year and reach a big high price.

Great thread here. I was honestly considering this but I wasn't exactly using indicators but only checking "halving trackers" on twitter and trusting my feels. I feel like we will definitely hit 38k-40k from now on as OP suggested. But I am still thinking about sudden retesting around there. I am trying to find a place to sell some of my coins to reenter but it feels too risky eventually. 60k seems too unrealistic to me, I mean can we pull that much attention to crypto now when rates are damn high? But in long run I guess many investors are gonna be happy. Everything seem positive for hodler.

Have updated OP now price has reached $30K, which is currently the level for confirming a U-shaped recovery based on 2019 fractal.



Interestingly enough the 3 weeks of consolidation looks a lot more like the consolidation in April 2019 around $5K prior to breaking $6K than the previous consolidation around $25K. As with previous bull flag style consolidation around $25k, price instead broke to the downside back to $20K. Whereas the recent consolidation under $29K has instead broken to the upside, similar to in April 2019.

Despite many still thinking that a $50K target sometime this year is too high, it instead could be too low, with instead the target being re-testing the highs around $60K prior to a considerable correction:



I only reference this in-case we see a quick move to $40K in the coming days / next week, then it could well suggest a quick break-out to $40K could lead to a parabolic move to $60K rather than $50K, as realistically it should take longer to break-through $40K than a matter of days or a week, if the target is around $50K, which for now remains on schedule for May/June this year.

The black-swan style capitulation to $20K (above fractal) can be ignored, but I think if the highs can be re-tested then a return to at minimum $30K remains likely. History rarely repeats itself, but it often rhymes.

Bitcoin trends often repeat themselves with interesting patterns, of course we must understand that the patterns that occur are of course in accordance with market conditions, the average daily transaction volume of more than $ 40 billion makes us believe that no one controls prices, so accusations that prices are manipulated or controlled by several people or exchanges then the news is a lie.

I don't think it matters if bitcoin holders are left over from 2019 or not. What is being compared is the price chart, which tends to repeat itself sometimes. So for now we can say that the 2019 fractal has started to repeat. But no one knows what kind of continuation the chart will have. In 2019 there was no crisis or even a covid, the economy was stronger than now.

the question is whether the sector or bitcoin holders from 2019 are still the same, as well as a lot of news or new things that are adopting bitcoin, if history is going to repeat itself then people should be patient waiting for that, but what we see here we also have to pay attention to the surrounding conditions because it also has an impact on the crypto market, such as the big news of the Russia-Ukraine war, then the SVB collapsing recently.

More or less still tracking the 2019 fractal with a month delay. Bitcoin had another impulsive move after finding support from 200 Day MA post golden cross, this time it was +30% rather than +20%:



Price is now coming close to the 0.236 fib retracement level around $28K which was the initial capitulation level that would need to be reclaimed in order to confirm (further) U-shaped bottom. While many expect some consolidation or pull-back from here, typically after breaking key resistance (in this case $25K) and reversing a long-term bearish trend, Bitcoin usually continues it's parabolic run as opposed to consolidates.

Am otherwise not convinced price will get rejected by $30K if high volume is to follow and instead more likely to get to around $34K to $36K (previous support zone) before seeing a notable correction. This is based on a continuation of an impulsive move that previously in 2019 was an initial +70% to the upside from low to high prior to a pull-back and consolidation. $36K is also the +50% measured move target from inverse head & shoulders pattern after breaking $25K. This all remains very theoretical until $30K is reached, but so far the +24% this week remains a strong move, even if lacking break-out volume.

At some other point I'll present arguments for price topping out in the short-term around $40K before returning to $30K, prior to eventually getting to $50K, either later in the year or early next year.

We haven't even crossed $30k yet, $50k expectations are very high compared to this year. In the context of world economic uncertainty, it is difficult to promote the recovery of financial markets and including bitcoin. We cannot make a price prediction for the end of the year, what I am expecting in the short term is for bitcoin to hit $30k this month. When the economy is extremely volatile, it is safer and more realistic to only make short-term predictions.

I don't think we'll see $50k this year. But it certainly could happen. Plenty of time left in the year for sure, I just assume some events will knock it down here and there so maybe it only reaches $45k this year. I would definitely expect $50k to be hit next winter though. I think the price will actually be near the ATH by the time the halving occurs.

It is possible that the manipulators will repeat 2019 to a certain point (as they did in 2021, which repeated 2017 until December 4, 2021, when history changed). So the possibility of a repeat of the underlying pattern is worth considering, but should not be completely relied upon.

Many make conclusions about bitcoin, of course what we hear most often is the trend that occurs every 4 years, namely the price will skyrocket and has happened 3 times, namely in 2013, 2017 and 2021, then another unique fact the price will drop more than 50% after the year and it seems that the price pattern that occurs is indeed very interesting for us to observe and conclude. and I think there are a lot of parallels that we can make between 2019 and 2023.

Bitcoin is always interesting and there are many facts that can become hot and trending topics, if we look at the price chart, of course there are many similarities between now and 2019, of course this is because of the 4-year trend that often repeats itself.

I think by all accounts we are in for a well-documented and well-founded speculation that history repeats itself. We are in March and there are many positives, optimism... and also a lot of negative news that is likely to increase short-term pressure. $25k is a major breakthrough in momentum bitcoin has achieved this year. But we will fix it soon on the trend. I still think that the possibility of us reaching $ 50k is very possible.

Well , we will see if we keep breaking resistance after resistance this time we could go similar to what happens in 2019 but remember that before the halving occured next year we could have really a weak support as everyone looking for a boosting price but getting nothing but a gradual downward.

Looking good now with $24k, it's $20k though a couple days ago and that's how the charts works.