If history repeats itself: 2023 vs 2019 - page 5.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: Welsh on February 23, 2023, 11:49:27 AM

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I completely agree, and I go further. Basing the alleged repetition only on what happened in 2019 is too weak. Even a prediction based on similarities between what may happen and what happened in 2019, 2015 and 2011 can clearly fail because of what is in bold. Something like that happened last year where everyone was predicting that the price would go much higher than it did, with predictive models of that style.

In the end, as they say in football, statistics are there to be broken.

Natalim

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History repeats itself. Perhaps I was going to believe that but the things are difficult from a volatile market as it never have the path to where it going making us to think that this year is similar to 2019.

For some reason;
- demand
- adoptions
- economic growth

These are the contributing factor that could affect the price movement of Bitcoin and to expect the same scenario is impossible, unless everythig was controlled by whales or someone that is capable of.

rhomelmabini

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on February 23, 2023, 05:57:15 PM

Quote from: rhomelmabini on February 23, 2023, 03:37:19 PM

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one.

Yes I have. The implication would be remaining in a range between $15K and $30K for the rest of year. There's nothing really exciting to provide fractal wise imo, it'd look pretty boring. Also while it's possible I personally find it unlikely. There was a lot more uncertainty back then in Bitcoin's infancy and it took a lot of time (11 months) to rebuild confidence in the market. 2019 rebound changed the game imo.

The reality is neither a 2015 nor 2019 style consolidation or recovery has confirmed itself in the charts yet as it's only been a few months since the potential bottom. If price where to get rejected by $30K and head towards $15K then rest assured I would open a new thread to suggest this possibility, rather than the idea of heading $10K. But so far, there is little to suggest this outcome is that likely.

Well, I think you're correct, the fundamentals back then was not quite strong compare to what we've seen today but aren't the regulations of SEC and others kinda looks the same as it was the uncertainty before? I mean SEC is throwing around on things that may create FUD in the market these days just because of that FTX meltdown, e.g., staking rumors to be banned, stablecoins issues as unregistered security etc. I think May or June will decide this if it breaks above the strong resistance at $25k, for now the sentiment is still on the bears side.

LogitechMouse

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As a believe of the 4-year cycle, I believe that what happened in 2019 might happen again this year.

On the other hand, I don't think that it will reach that $50,000 price this year. It's possible still, but the chances of it are low (at least for me). It might reach that price next year.

Well, we are in a situation where the crypto market is performing better compare to where it was last year which is a sign of relief. What's good now is that, we are seeing Bitcoin signs of upward movement though it can't pass the $25,000 resistance as of this moment. We might see different price movements right now compare to where it was 4 years ago, but if we will look at the longer timeline, the pattern is still the same. Bear market-Sideways movement-Bitcoin halving-Bull Market.

Pesona1

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Quote from: crzy on February 23, 2023, 04:53:55 PM

Quote from: rhomelmabini on February 23, 2023, 03:37:19 PM

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.

This is how it works, better to be more ready for both scenario because the market is unpredictable and I choose maybe because of the market sentiment right now and there’s a possibility if the hype and pump continues. The previous trend will always be the basis and yes it might be the 2015 price trend since in 2025, many expect for the real bull run after the halving with Bitcoin.

The market conditions are clearly unstable at the moment, the previous price gains were not able to last long enough and even I see that the possibility of a bearish trend could still occur, moreover the weekly chart of the BTC price still shows a death cross of the Moving Average indicator so that changes may occur the price suddenly comes from bitcoin at this time, for now it's better to watch and be aware of bitcoin price movements before buying because after all we don't want to get stuck in buying.

STT

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Its looking a bit weaker today, failed to pass 24.5k and also staying below the 2 day average and confirming the weekly average for the highs. If I hold BTC as acting positively I expect it to hold above weekly averages not below. The signal for this higher patch of BTC prices to fall apart would be 23.5k being lost. Next support I'd guess is early Feb lows of 22.8k All of this is short term stuff and movements, if someone argued we are just going sideways I would mostly agree for micro and macro movements.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: rhomelmabini on February 23, 2023, 03:37:19 PM

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one.

Yes I have. The implication would be remaining in a range between $15K and $30K for the rest of year. There's nothing really exciting to provide fractal wise imo, it'd look pretty boring. Also while it's possible I personally find it unlikely. There was a lot more uncertainty back then in Bitcoin's infancy and it took a lot of time (11 months) to rebuild confidence in the market. 2019 rebound changed the game imo.

The reality is neither a 2015 nor 2019 style consolidation or recovery has confirmed itself in the charts yet as it's only been a few months since the potential bottom. If price where to get rejected by $30K and head towards $15K then rest assured I would open a new thread to suggest this possibility, rather than the idea of heading $10K. But so far, there is little to suggest this outcome is that likely.

crzy

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Quote from: rhomelmabini on February 23, 2023, 03:37:19 PM

Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.

This is how it works, better to be more ready for both scenario because the market is unpredictable and I choose maybe because of the market sentiment right now and there’s a possibility if the hype and pump continues. The previous trend will always be the basis and yes it might be the 2015 price trend since in 2025, many expect for the real bull run after the halving with Bitcoin.

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: Merit.s on February 23, 2023, 11:06:10 AM

From analysis, it is clear that bitcoin circle repeats itself and I see that these two years 2019 and 2023 looks similar. The last year bear market went so dip beyond the expected price and this might make bitcoin price to pump very high this year maybe towards the end of the year,we might see the price up to 50k. Bitcoin halving is expected to be next year but nobody knows if we are to experience it earlier than that. I am patiently accumulating and watching the movement of the price to see what this year have for investors. Anyway January was a good development in bitcoin price to start this year.

we may see the similarities but don't forget that the situation today is now different, like how many users are into crypto or big companies that are involve in crypto-related business. in my opinion, each year is unique. we may see some situations to be happening again but they are not the reason to hope that it will be the same path again. we will see the aftermath once the year is over. also in any case, everyone is free to speculate and act accordingly.

Fatunad

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Quote from: livingfree on February 23, 2023, 04:25:02 PM

Quote from: Welsh on February 23, 2023, 11:49:27 AM

Quote from: livingfree on February 23, 2023, 05:53:01 AM

Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I guess I'm an outlier, and I'm not too bothered by the short term price performance, but it does look like a lot of users are coming to terms they'll need to wait a little longer to get their desired return.

I agree to you and that's why I think that we're just probably out of it since the trend is changing and we're staying at the top from the bottom that it has been.

And just as how unpredictable it was, we're on the same page that it's always been like that and these are just mere thoughts that I've got for the market.

At the end, just as you, I'm also looking forward to the long term and with the effect of the halving by next year. It's like my ticket why I'm optimistic for the next 1-2 years to come.

People do really love hunting for some patterns and similarities when it comes to those candles and lines comparing the past into the present.Well it cant really be stopped considering that market could neither have that kind of behavior but in overall we do know that this market is always been unpredictable.There's no way that we could really be able to know on where it would be heading even if we do see some similarities
when it comes to charting.It all matters about the demand and recognition on how this market would react and behaves.This is why on the time that you had stepped your foot into this market then you should
really be that prepared when it comes to the risk involved and attached to it.

livingfree

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Quote from: Welsh on February 23, 2023, 11:49:27 AM

Quote from: livingfree on February 23, 2023, 05:53:01 AM

Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I guess I'm an outlier, and I'm not too bothered by the short term price performance, but it does look like a lot of users are coming to terms they'll need to wait a little longer to get their desired return.

I agree to you and that's why I think that we're just probably out of it since the trend is changing and we're staying at the top from the bottom that it has been.

And just as how unpredictable it was, we're on the same page that it's always been like that and these are just mere thoughts that I've got for the market.

At the end, just as you, I'm also looking forward to the long term and with the effect of the halving by next year. It's like my ticket why I'm optimistic for the next 1-2 years to come.

OgNasty

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Quote from: fzkto on February 20, 2023, 01:45:04 PM

Many people talk about a similar fractal in 2019 and 2023, but I don't think it's quite correct to compare these charts because at that time there was no global crisis, not even a Covid yet, so the whole world economy, including the stock markets, were operating very differently than now. We can say that now we are on the verge of a big recession and I personally don't expect any serious growth of bitcoin. Although I don't exclude that it might happen against the odds, as it has happened more than once.

I'm a strong believer of Bitcoin's 4-year cycle a.k.a. fractal pattern and think it is the single most important thing when trying to gauge Bitcoin's price in the future. So far it's turned out to be a fairly accurate method of predicting.

Sure, "this time is different" and I understand your point. I also think that people should be wise to take note of the differences and keep them in mind should a recession truly destroy Bitcoin's market. However, I am a believer that Bitcoin (and crypto) is a new asset class that's finding it's valuation. I believe it's value is higher than today's valuation and think that the fractal pattern will continue as Bitcoin doesn't care about global chaos or recessions and there's even the possibility that rich people flock to Bitcoin as a safe haven in a recession, causing it's value to skyrocket. I don't really believe that, but still think it's a good time to be a buyer, because the fractal is real.

rhomelmabini

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Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.

Welsh

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Quote from: livingfree on February 23, 2023, 05:53:01 AM

Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

I wouldn't say we're out of the bear season yet. I mean, Bitcoin is still rebounding, while the general feeling is more positive as of recent, however we don't know what this year holds yet. It hasn't really started, and with the recession looming I wouldn't want to make a prediction based on any charts, since I genuinely believe we're in unprecedented times, which charts don't typically account for.

I guess I'm an outlier, and I'm not too bothered by the short term price performance, but it does look like a lot of users are coming to terms they'll need to wait a little longer to get their desired return.

Merit.s

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From analysis, it is clear that bitcoin circle repeats itself and I see that these two years 2019 and 2023 looks similar. The last year bear market went so dip beyond the expected price and this might make bitcoin price to pump very high this year maybe towards the end of the year,we might see the price up to 50k. Bitcoin halving is expected to be next year but nobody knows if we are to experience it earlier than that. I am patiently accumulating and watching the movement of the price to see what this year have for investors. Anyway January was a good development in bitcoin price to start this year.

livingfree

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Since we're probably and most likely out of the bear, this goes with the season of the end of year where most of times that it is when the surge happens.

Prior to the halving we might get some push at the last weeks of December by this year. I do believe that history will definitely repeat itself and if not then there's a likelihood that we shall see its pattern soon.

But with the situation that we're all experiencing right now, this is a lovely chart to look at.

TheGreatPython

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Quote from: el kaka22 on February 22, 2023, 01:11:01 PM

Looking at the similarities of 2019 and 2023 we could say that there is a good chance we could end up with a different situation in the long run, it may not be what we want to see, maybe 50k won't happen, but it could be a good year that we go up.

I know it is not that easy to make such a prediction, maybe it will happen and maybe it won't happen, we really do not know. But, I am guessing that it is going to end up with a good return in the long run if we wait, probably this year is just the start, next year it is going to be even better than that. Next year I am expecting it to pass the ATH price, and that would be when all the fun will start with it again.

The similarities show that there is a chance for the price to repeat its actions from the past, so we can't say that we can end up with a different situation, although that could be right and we might end up with that. $50k is a long way for sure from where the price is right now, but if it breaks the resistance and shows strong upward movement, we might end up crossing that limit by the end of Q2.

For a long-run expectation, you should not expect things to happen just within a year, keep an estimate of at least 3 to 5 years if you wish to get amazing returns on your investment and if you know that you got the ability to hold on to your assets.

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Quote from: el kaka22 on February 22, 2023, 01:11:01 PM

Looking at the similarities of 2019 and 2023 we could say that there is a good chance we could end up with a different situation in the long run, it may not be what we want to see, maybe 50k won't happen, but it could be a good Next year I am expecting it to pass the ATH price, and that would be when all the fun will start with it again.

As always, we can be deceived, and all the most interesting may happen in 2023. Everybody is used to the fact that the main growth starts after halving (though if we consider that almost all BTC coins are already mined, the impact of halving will only decrease) - so the main growth may happen in 2023. After all, many - myself included - expected bitcoin to finally rise in December 2021 (as 2013 and 2017) and we will have a strong altseason - but on December 4, 2021, history was rewritten.

el kaka22

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Looking at the similarities of 2019 and 2023 we could say that there is a good chance we could end up with a different situation in the long run, it may not be what we want to see, maybe 50k won't happen, but it could be a good year that we go up.

I know it is not that easy to make such a prediction, maybe it will happen and maybe it won't happen, we really do not know. But, I am guessing that it is going to end up with a good return in the long run if we wait, probably this year is just the start, next year it is going to be even better than that. Next year I am expecting it to pass the ATH price, and that would be when all the fun will start with it again.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: STT on February 21, 2023, 03:27:22 PM

2019 we gained and lost it again so it was quite spiky in that respect, too fast a gain.

Indeed, I still consider 2019 a bear market relief rally. Price made a macro lower high and eventually returned to near the lows at $3.8K for eventual higher low. Black swan event aside, that's what happened, and even without the covid crash then price still returned to "the norm" around $6K to $8K that was the previous volume accumulation zone. Hence, if price does reach $50K, I'd be betting on it returning to $25K/$30K soon after.

Quote from: STT on February 21, 2023, 03:27:22 PM

Here we are going sideways quite alot at the moment, a really simple look at that chart on weekly bars says 30k is a target within grasp and should be obtained. We cannot speculate on gains beyond 30k because it hasnt happened to challenge this area yet, all we did so far is escape the downtrend and relief rally which is not enough to say more only maybe.

Also agree on this. Hence my note for confirmation of a U-shaped bottom and +80% target would be above $30K, not before. I see the argument for a roughly 50% target to the upside towards $37K if $25K if broken, but additionally this hasn't been confirmed either, and imo it's not quite as clean a U-shaped bottom compared to the drop from $30K down to $16K and back to $30K. But that's just my opinion on the matter.

My general impression is that $30K won't act as resistance however as there is barely any volume there compared to $16K and $20K levels. Even between $30K and $40K there isn't much either. By comparison in 2019 most of the volume was still traded between $6K and $8K, but price broke through like a knife through butter. So ironically, it should be easier to break $30K than it was to break $6K back in 2019.

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