Topic: If history repeats itself: 2023 vs 2019 - page 3. (Read 915 times)
Its not a bad comparison, 2019 was a reflex reaction upwards after almost the whole of 2018 was negative, similarly 2022 was quite negative almost entirely. However I think we are more obstructed this time, volume is in our way and we are sub 200 week average which to me says its a greater fight this time.
As I recall, the main rise in the bitcoin price began in 2019 around April 1, 2019. The Fed is due to meet on March 22, 2023. If the rate is raised by 25 points and not 50 (as many expect), we may see a nice rise in the bitcoin price. We will see soon - what will happen.
I really do not think we need to compare the 2023 bitcoin price movement with that of 2019 as both times were different, the bitcoin adoption was at a different level and also the economic situation of 2019 and 2023 can never match. Therefore, i don't pay any attention even if we see some similarities in price movement of bitcoin.
Yes, i agree that we should wait for CPI data which will be released tomorow and the Fed meeting on 22 march and should not fall for this massive pump which is in place now. It could turn out to be a fake out if the numbers did not come out as expected.
This is where most people been clinging on, on where they do believe that on upcoming years it would really be taking on the same path.This what makes really hard on dealing up with this market where
everything is unpredictable but well if it was predictable on the first place then getting rich would really be that easy. Take it slow and be sure on what
are the actions you would be doing.
As I recall, the main rise in the bitcoin price began in 2019 around April 1, 2019. The Fed is due to meet on March 22, 2023. If the rate is raised by 25 points and not 50 (as many expect), we may see a nice rise in the bitcoin price. We will see soon - what will happen.
I really do not think we need to compare the 2023 bitcoin price movement with that of 2019 as both times were different, the bitcoin adoption was at a different level and also the economic situation of 2019 and 2023 can never match. Therefore, i don't pay any attention even if we see some similarities in price movement of bitcoin.
Yes, i agree that we should wait for CPI data which will be released tomorow and the Fed meeting on 22 march and should not fall for this massive pump which is in place now. It could turn out to be a fake out if the numbers did not come out as expected.
With price back at $20K, price is in need of (another) +20% impulsive move back above 200 Day MA in order to return to 2019 fractal, which admittedly at present looks unlikely.
So the market needed a +20% impulsive move back to the upside after re-testing the 200 Day MA, in order to stand a chance of continuing a parabolic run to the upside similar to 2019 fractal, and so far it looks like in the past couple of days we got exactly that. It's not something I was expecting, as already happened back in January, but it does put higher targets such as $50K this year very much back on the table imo.
Will update OP with up to date chart when BLX updates, but otherwise we're back in the "bull flag consolidation" price level. Maybe some short-term consolidation before finally breaking $25K?
Lots of interesting and unique facts about bitcoin price trends, of course what is commonly known by people is the 4-year upward trend that has occurred several times, it's only natural that we will study previous trends because it is proven to have the same pattern or graph, if we look at it at the beginning In 2019 and 2023 there will be many similarities until now and hopefully the price will rise again starting from April.
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My only thought for today is whether a USDT implosion, following the USDC sell-off, could cause another +20% move to the upside, back to around $24K.
The price trend shows such a good indication that we are most likely to be going up rather than moving down. I won't just expect $24k but $25k...lolMy only thought for today is whether a USDT implosion, following the USDC sell-off, could cause another +20% move to the upside, back to around $24K.
Honestly, we can't be sure that the USDC sell-off will affect the market long term. If this will sustain until next quarter, that be a huge bump in the market but I don't think this is enough to lead the market to a bullish one. This is a twist on the market history and something to note that not all happen in the past will also happen in the current days.
As I recall, the main rise in the bitcoin price began in 2019 around April 1, 2019. The Fed is due to meet on March 22, 2023. If the rate is raised by 25 points and not 50 (as many expect), we may see a nice rise in the bitcoin price. We will see soon - what will happen.
With price back at $20K, price is in need of (another) +20% impulsive move back above 200 Day MA in order to return to 2019 fractal, which admittedly at present looks unlikely.
Something like this would be needed to continue the imminent uptrend, but instead of being against USDC, would need to be against US dollar
My only thought for today is whether a USDT implosion, following the USDC sell-off, could cause another +20% move to the upside, back to around $24K.
Something like this would be needed to continue the imminent uptrend, but instead of being against USDC, would need to be against US dollar
My only thought for today is whether a USDT implosion, following the USDC sell-off, could cause another +20% move to the upside, back to around $24K.
For this year there has been a gradual recovery that has occurred in bitcoin, although market conditions have also experienced a small correction and currently bitcoin is starting to be pressured at a price of $ 20K, if you look at the recovery process that took place at the beginning of the year to date, then to reach a price of $ 50K will be it's a bit of a stretch and there hasn't been any approach or process that's likely to bring bitcoin to that price, let alone no signs of anywhere near $30-$35K in the near future.
Not that important for the price of bitcoin this year in my opinion, but what we do will take bitcoin to the next ATH milestone and that means we should be able to spot opportunities before they become more bullish and a correction opportunity may be used to make a purchase.
Some say March is not a good month to expect bitcoin price to break through a lot of resistance. I think part of their opinion is right, and in fact the market also got FUD impact during March at this time.Not that important for the price of bitcoin this year in my opinion, but what we do will take bitcoin to the next ATH milestone and that means we should be able to spot opportunities before they become more bullish and a correction opportunity may be used to make a purchase.
It's hard to expect $25K to hit during March, but I can expect it to be better in April or before the middle of the year. $30K will be reached, it will definitely take time and need more demand, but let's hope the market will recover after the $19K drop in the previous 24 hours.
2023 is going to be like 2019 but don't we think $50k is too much of a recovery, if that's achieved this year then what's left for 2024 then. Lets not forget the recovery takes more than one year because the all time high doesn't get crossed until a year after halving which is 2025 therefore we still have the whole of 2024 for a recovering to commences.
I think this year is going to be bullish but not as bullish as the OP is projecting, $50k would be achieved next year not this year but this year would be somewhere around $30-$35k. This too can be considered bullish considering where the price is recovering from.
For this year there has been a gradual recovery that has occurred in bitcoin, although market conditions have also experienced a small correction and currently bitcoin is starting to be pressured at a price of $ 20K, if you look at the recovery process that took place at the beginning of the year to date, then to reach a price of $ 50K will be it's a bit of a stretch and there hasn't been any approach or process that's likely to bring bitcoin to that price, let alone no signs of anywhere near $30-$35K in the near future.I think this year is going to be bullish but not as bullish as the OP is projecting, $50k would be achieved next year not this year but this year would be somewhere around $30-$35k. This too can be considered bullish considering where the price is recovering from.
Not that important for the price of bitcoin this year in my opinion, but what we do will take bitcoin to the next ATH milestone and that means we should be able to spot opportunities before they become more bullish and a correction opportunity may be used to make a purchase.
Bitcoin is indeed unique and often the same and recurring trends, which is popular, of course, is a 4 -year trend price skyrocketing and then the following year drops, and if in 2017 the price skyrocketed and 2018 is in the lowest and at the end of 2019 starting recovery, hopefully in 2023 it can Like 2019 and towards recovery, it is natural that many people believe that the price will reach $ 50K at the end of the year.
2023 is going to be like 2019 but don't we think $50k is too much of a recovery, if that's achieved this year then what's left for 2024 then. Lets not forget the recovery takes more than one year because the all time high doesn't get crossed until a year after halving which is 2025 therefore we still have the whole of 2024 for a recovering to commences.
I think this year is going to be bullish but not as bullish as the OP is projecting, $50k would be achieved next year not this year but this year would be somewhere around $30-$35k. This too can be considered bullish considering where the price is recovering from.
The recovery in 2019 was far more consistent then at present I think though recent moves appear larger then they are and will matter less in retrospect. Good reaction today to the 200 day average forming the lows and to confirm this as a positive move I want to see BTC price action trade above 20750 for this weekend into next week; this will give us the best chance moving positively forward.
Ideally we need to recover 21500 from here on, even that much will take something extra to push against and above a descending trend in place since mid Feb.
Ideally we need to recover 21500 from here on, even that much will take something extra to push against and above a descending trend in place since mid Feb.
History is still repeating itself, but it will be a little different, in 2019, we have no war, no crisis, no inflation… as it is now, so we cannot expect bitcoin to repeat precisely like 2019.
I still believe history will repeat itself, bitcoin still makes new ATHs after the halving, and that's when the world economy enters the recovery phase.
The recovery in 2019 was far more consistent then at present I think though recent moves appear larger then they are and will matter less in retrospect. Good reaction today to the 200 day average forming the lows and to confirm this as a positive move I want to see BTC price action trade above 20750 for this weekend into next week; this will give us the best chance moving positively forward.
Ideally we need to recover 21500 from here on, even that much will take something extra to push against and above a descending trend in place since mid Feb.
Ideally we need to recover 21500 from here on, even that much will take something extra to push against and above a descending trend in place since mid Feb.
Bitcoin is indeed unique and often the same and recurring trends, which is popular, of course, is a 4 -year trend price skyrocketing and then the following year drops, and if in 2017 the price skyrocketed and 2018 is in the lowest and at the end of 2019 starting recovery, hopefully in 2023 it can Like 2019 and towards recovery, it is natural that many people believe that the price will reach $ 50K at the end of the year.
And then we assume that everything goes the same as before and then think that the next ATH will be even higher than the last time. Whether it was right or wrong, nobody knows exactly but at least we take action and anticipate the upcoming bull season, and filling our bags is a great idea. But as we have seen the trend these days, the market is quiet, with no FUDs, no market drama like exchanges scams - perhaps it was very calm which I think was not good. I'd rather like to see the market full of drama to make it more appealing and active, and most of all, it attracts curiosity to the community and possibly bring more demand which could uplift the price.
Bitcoin is indeed unique and often the same and recurring trends, which is popular, of course, is a 4 -year trend price skyrocketing and then the following year drops, and if in 2017 the price skyrocketed and 2018 is in the lowest and at the end of 2019 starting recovery, hopefully in 2023 it can Like 2019 and towards recovery, it is natural that many people believe that the price will reach $ 50K at the end of the year.
Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.
Yes, there are always surprises in investment, so as long as we prepare a plan for two scenarios, we will never panic and fall into a passive position. Cryptocurrency is just a game of patience, as long as whoever can endure it the best, the reward will go to that person. Many people say investing is not easy, but if you know how to wait patiently, it's easier than we think.
I agree that cryptocurrencies are a game of patience, but the presence of spot exchanges certainly gives us the opportunity not to be missed if the price skyrocketes, for example after buying and then selling with a profit of 15% or more, as long as we are patient we will be profitable, unfortunately nowadays many people have it easy panicked because he saw FUDs on social media.
investment which means that they would really be tending to deal up with the price in short term manner which means that researching and in depth review is a must. Speaking about 2019 vs 2023 then
we dont know if history would repeat or not but whether it would happen or not then always make yourself that versatile for whatever instances or things that you would be facing up.
This market is unpredictable and there's no way that you could handle it out easily.
Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.
Yes, there are always surprises in investment, so as long as we prepare a plan for two scenarios, we will never panic and fall into a passive position. Cryptocurrency is just a game of patience, as long as whoever can endure it the best, the reward will go to that person. Many people say investing is not easy, but if you know how to wait patiently, it's easier than we think.
I agree that cryptocurrencies are a game of patience, but the presence of spot exchanges certainly gives us the opportunity not to be missed if the price skyrocketes, for example after buying and then selling with a profit of 15% or more, as long as we are patient we will be profitable, unfortunately nowadays many people have it easy panicked because he saw FUDs on social media.
Have you take a look at the 2015 chart? I think that's the similar thing rather than the 2019 one. Not that I mind it because in the long term we will see all time high once again, it's just a matter of patience and your tenacity to make it alive in this bear market. Not always optimistic but always ready on both scenarios.
Yes, there are always surprises in investment, so as long as we prepare a plan for two scenarios, we will never panic and fall into a passive position. Cryptocurrency is just a game of patience, as long as whoever can endure it the best, the reward will go to that person. Many people say investing is not easy, but if you know how to wait patiently, it's easier than we think.
I agree that cryptocurrencies are a game of patience, but the presence of spot exchanges certainly gives us the opportunity not to be missed if the price skyrocketes, for example after buying and then selling with a profit of 15% or more, as long as we are patient we will be profitable, unfortunately nowadays many people have it easy panicked because he saw FUDs on social media.
As an update to OP, here is the current outlook of 2019 and 2023 comparison (based on in proportion fractal and when the yearly low was created):
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/9YmlWD6g-BTCUSD-If-history-repeats-itself/
As you can probably just about make out, last month when price was at $25K we were very much in-line with the 2019 fractal, whereas now we are "falling behind" you could say. While I never expected this fractal to play out in exactly the same time-frame as 2019, as 2022 bear market was considerably different for starters, we are still within a bull flag consolidation at the highs.
The invalidation of this fractal would likely be a break of $21.5K (previous high low). Whereas for now, price has continued to make higher highs and higher lows on short-term time-frame.
Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/9YmlWD6g-BTCUSD-If-history-repeats-itself/
As you can probably just about make out, last month when price was at $25K we were very much in-line with the 2019 fractal, whereas now we are "falling behind" you could say. While I never expected this fractal to play out in exactly the same time-frame as 2019, as 2022 bear market was considerably different for starters, we are still within a bull flag consolidation at the highs.
The invalidation of this fractal would likely be a break of $21.5K (previous high low). Whereas for now, price has continued to make higher highs and higher lows on short-term time-frame.
If we pay attention then many things are unique because price trends look the same, of course not the same value but the movement charts are often the same, and in my opinion what happened in 2023 is almost the same as what happened in 2019 or the 4 year cycle, we'll see if there are any surprises bigger again in 2023 so prices can rise.
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