But the bet is not about if Pirate defaults, but about if he will pay AS STATED in his thread: Full coins + Interests.
If people settle for less, Pirate has not defaulted, but he did not pay with interests as stated in his thread and odds are he already knew for some time he wouldn't have the money to refund everyone, which would still make it a fraud.
Actually without re-readig the OP, based on the topic title and large amounts of discussion in the thread, it is about whether or not Pirate is a fraudster (with more than one person who has no clue what a ponzi scheme is or has a strong desire to do nothing but troll). If someone tells pirate he doesn't have to pay them back, he didn't fraud, and you can't prove he didn't have the funds to pay them back.
As for fraud and / or defaulting, I can't comment on bitlane, because I know nothing about it.
I can say that these arguments look like the arguments of people trying to weasel out of a bet they are afraid they might actually lose more than they look like confusion. You shouldn't be posting that you'll bet if you don't fully understand the bet, period.
I can also say that most of the (non-bitlane-related) comments seem moot anyway based on the info thread, it appears to me that Pirate isn't letting people get their funds early by paying him or anything else, so he may be paying as stated in spite of lucrative offers.
EDIT: to remove additional pointless bitlane comment
