Your analysis was 70% correct for the past few weeks as the bullish market is still on, Bitcoin is currently in the ATH, I can see that you are new in the forum,But if you are a trader either a long time trader or day to day trader. I would have advice you to buy and hold because this is the best time to cash out massively after the bull run is over, bitcoin will definitely hit 100k plus with no time, so buy and keep that is the best for now, And secondly the price has dropped and ready to pick up again soon.
60k-70k price range buying plan still active.
btw...whales still holding 70%-80%btc they only sold 20%-30% about they gona buy 3 times over their coins of the 20%-30% then they can start the bull run again.
It seems like btc need to do 3 times swing down to 60k then back to 70k , i haven't counted how many times btc Went down to 60k price range but i guess it's 3 or 4th time so bullish break out very soon.
When 60k-70k price range whales buy coins in order to get their required amount of coins they need to do 3 times down and up.
I guess they use futures contracts to short down the Market and on 60k price range they have their long orders placed and on 70k price range short orders, off course short orders will be removed once they got their required amount of coins that's why bullish brake out 68k-70k price range short contracts and put options will be take from lower prices and funds for short orders will be used to push btc up with key prices where a lot shorts will be liquitated, most traders start to think that btc price to high and they will start short down btc at 75k, 77k 83k but untfortunately they will get liquitated only even the low leverage positions with 2x-3x they will add margin but still btc will go over 100k faster then they could act to add more margin.