I have thought about all of this quite deeply. I come from a family of collectors, antique dealers. Grew up collecting coins, sports cards, and am quite knowledgeable in all types of collectibles.
Nobody knows anything about crypto, nobody has any idea about these crypto physical collectibles. I believe these collectibles will continue to rise in value, but it will be a niche market (just like it is now). So many people are already priced out on these things. The only people I see really buying these things is people who made some money on BTC/crypto and stumbled upon our forum or rich Boomers who sit at home and bid on auctions for things they don't need.
Unfortunately, the younger generations don't care for silver or gold or physical collectibles really. I wanted to gift my nephew and niece some Silver Morgans instead of giving them cash for Christmas and they couldn't have cared less. Last bull run, I absolutely loathed NFTs, but then I started to see how the younger generation absolutely vibed with it. So many of those kids spend countless hours on role playing games gaining xp and trying to get rare objects. So NFTs were kinda like a real world version of it.
Just this year I started following more about Ordinals/Inscriptions/etc. and I think that is going to be the ultra collectible item. Rare sats/early sats, sats from significant transactions, maybe alot of you already know about this stuff. But these are the things normies can probably afford. But I can only imagine when BTC hits some incredible dollar values (i.e. 1 million per BTC) that sats will become some of the best and most liquid BTC memorabilia (and certainly nobody can scam or rob you on those and everything can be verified and stored away safely). And honestly, as much as I hated NFTs, because Ordinals/NFTs are on BTC, I kinda like some of them and even bought a couple "blue chips", hahaha. Perhaps I can accept it because i just see the opportunity to potentially gain more BTC. But I still feel like these kids that made it big on ETH NFTs last cycle are constantly searching for another win and Ordinals on BTC is something they can vibe with and we still more and more of that money cross over to the BTC/Ordinals NFT ecosystem.
I love my physical coin collection and I'd probably never even sell any of it, but I think only older rich folks are the ones who will "buy our bags", people with too much money looking to diversify their investments a bit. Last cycle a good buddy of mine was telling me how Steve Aoki (a famous DJ), just aped 10 million bucks worth of sports cards to put some money somewhere else. Our collectibles are way better than that garbage, and certainly much more rare and scarce. It still blows my mind people are paying Tens of thousands of dollars for such common baseball/collectible cards that flooded the market 1989 and onwards (i.e. pokemon card, Ken Griffey Jr rookie card, anything after 1990 for sure). But now that the BTC ETFs have been approved all these Boomers finally accept BTC as a real thing. I imagine that sentiment will carry over into the numismatics world and demand will grow amongst traditional coin collectors.
One concern of mine about the physical collectibles is if BTC does hit a million and I did want to sell the coin who is going to buy it? Not sure its ever happened, but has anyone ever peeled a perfectly good legitimate coin and something was wrong? Private key unreadable or just not there? Pretty big risk by the buyer at that price point. I would really hate to peel any of my coins.
Perhaps in the future a mainstream BTC/crypto physical collectible will catch on, something pretty well marketed and mass produced, then from there people will research earlier collectibles and these things will really become popular. If BTC hits 1 Million, then someone with a 1000 BTC Casascius will be hodling a billion dollar coin. That will be something the media might jump on and normies would have to take notice.
Anyway, just some thoughts.
You gotta be careful talking about that dirty bitcoin transactions called ordinals around here… Maxi’s hate it. Even tho one could argue it’s the only thing keeping miners in business and profitable. I can say that ordinals have paid for every physical crypto piece I have purchased for the last year and there’s a couple producers that I buy every release from. On top of that - it has made it fun again.
As collectibles go - I find it easy to trust the keys and the makers IF they exude confidence in themselves by the way they act, talk, and sell their products. They also need to demonstrate great organization and attention to detail. It’s a basic trust that they are not keeping the keys AT ALL EVER and ALL keys are destroyed once printed. As we saw with Yogg, some lying piece of shits will keep keys with a plan to rug at some poin, but there were obvious warning signs (loans, unfilled orders, sketchy behavior). The longer a creator is in this space and doesn’t have issues - the more trustworthy they become. My current trust list is - Squirrelbits, MyBits, Lealana (although customer service sucks), Alpen, CypherHodl, CI if they ever put some more stuff out, Mopar Mining LLC (if I need keys made safely)—- probably a few others but these were easy to think of.
I see this market growing. I collected vintage silver/gold hand poured bars before this. I used to be able to pick them up near spot price or a few bucks over. Now some bars are 10x - 100x times spot or more. All it takes is time and new collectors. I imagine when these kids that have bitcoin get older, they will want to buy our bags. But hopefully sooner than that lol