A few days back, the Indian government announced that they will ban the usage of cryptocurrency in India. The bill is currently in queue to be presented during the budget session (which started today).
This bill was originally formulated by Subhash Chandra Garg in 2018, who was the Finance Secretary of India then. According to the provisions, anyone found holding cryptocurrency will be charged and punished with up to 10 years in jail. Back then, Mr.Garg got embroiled in to some conflict with some of the ruling politicians and was kicked out before he could implement this law. After that the cryptocurrency users were thinking that the government had given up its effort to criminalize cryptocurrency ownership. And that was until a few days back, when they made the announcement about this law.
So what has changed now? Why a law that was rejected in 2018 is now refurbished and tabled again in 2021? If you take a look at the charts, then it become clear. Bitcoin prices have increased by almost 3 times during the last 12 months. Bitcoin is now worth $624 billion. According to conservative estimates, there are 5 million+ crypto users in India, who holds around $10 billion in cryptocurrency. However, these figures are based only on the stats from India-based cryptocurrency exchanges such as Zebpay and WazirX. The majority of the Indian users don't use these exchanges, and instead rely on P2P platforms. So the real number will be much higher.
The current government, which is headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party is essentially run by a few corporate houses, especially those owned by the Ambani/Adani nexus. Ever since 2014 (when BJP came to power), these corporate houses have monopolized various sectors in the Indian economy. The strategy used is very simple. First destroy the competition and then rollout their own product and capture the monopoly. Take the case of the telecom sector. Established brands such as Idea and Airtel were destroyed before Ambani came up with his Jio brand. And how can they let cryptocurrency out of their control? Since it is impossible to control a decentralized asset such as Bitcoin, they have decided to ban it. Once the vacuum is created, the pro-government corporates will come up with their own version of the cryptocurrency (which will obviously be 100% pre-mined).
Now what are the options that we have? Nowhere else in the world, ownership of cryptocurrency has been made a criminal offense. There are certain countries such as China, which are having trading ban on cryptocurrency. But even they are not crazy enough to jail individuals just for storing a code in their computers. If the ban is implemented, then the government will give at the most 3 months time for the users to get rid of their coins.
Those who don't want to sell their coins immediately have very few options. They can try to travel to countries such as Qatar, which are having visa-waiver for Indian nationals. Before the limit expires, the individuals can attempt to get a work visa or investment visa. Another option is proxy holding. You can transfer your coins to a foreign national and ask him to hold the coins for you. But this is a very risky step. Right now I can't think about any other option apart from these.
Impact for the usersThe existing cryptocurrency users will be adversely effected. With institutional investment of cryptocurrency gaining pace, it is expected that investment in Bitcoin would give good returns in the near future. But even those who were aiming for long-term investment needs to sell their coins immediately. And this can negatively affect the users on multiple fronts. If you sell your coins in a gradual manner, it is possible to reduce the tax cut to 10% or 20%. But when you sell all of your holdings at once, the top-most tax slab will be applicable for most of the users and they will be forced to pay 43% tax on their holdings.
And in the near future we can expect worldwide adoption of BTC. Eventually, Bitcoin will become legal in India once more. But the Indian users will be forced to purchase BTC at that point at much higher prices and they will lose out to users from the rest of the world.
Response from the usersWith a user base of at least 5 million, the cryptocurrency users in India are not some insignificant group. They are feeling helpless, because of the lack of unity. It is worthwhile to note that at least one opposition politician (Milind Deora of the Congress Party) has come out in support of Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency users in India needs to unite and take a political stance against those who are hostile to the idea of BTC. State elections are due in four crucial states in the next 2-3 months (West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam). Bitcoiners need to use their votes effectively, in order to defeat the political factions that are in favor of the Bitcoin ban. Tactical voting needs to be undertaken.